Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

A middlingly good reaction to the budget according to Newspoll, which does not record significant changes on voting intention or leadership approval from three weeks ago.

The latest Newspoll in The Australian has the Coalition leading 52-48, out from 51-49 last time, from primary votes of Coalition 44% (up one), Labor 34% (steady), Greens 11% (down one) and One Nation 3% (steady). Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are unchanged at 65% approval and 31% disapproval, while Anthony Albanese is steady on 39% approval and up three on disapproval to 43%. Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister nonetheless narrows slightly, from 59-27 to 57-28.

The poll shows a broadly favourable response to the budget, which is rated good for the economy by 42% and bad by 20%, compared with 44% and 18% last year – although a lot more of the favourable response is merely quite good (35% compared with 29% last year) rather than extremely good (7% compared with 15%). Twenty-six per cent expect it will make them better off financially compared with 23% for worse off and 51% for uncommitted, which is less strong than last year (34% better off and 19% worse off) but fairly strong by historical standards.

Troublingly for Labor, 54% expressed more trust in “a Coalition government led by Scott Morrison” to “guide Australia’s recovery” compared with 32% for “a Labor government led by Anthony Albanese”, and only 33% felt Labor would have done a better job on the budget compared with 49% for a worse job. This compares with 37% and 45% last year and is their weakest net result since the Coalition came to power in 2013, although it’s within the error margin of 2015, 2016 and 2017.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1527.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,240 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  2. FYI I just tried to sign the Rudd petition at the APH webiste. After two attempts I still could not succeed. First it would not let me “confirm”. Then it thought I was a robot. Despite multiple clicks it would not accept my attempt to sign. Successful signatures are now > 80,000.
    https://www.aph.gov.au/petition_list?id=EN1938

    Who did they put in charge of the APH website? Stuart Roberts?

  3. lizzie @ #96 Monday, October 12th, 2020 – 9:10 am

    KayJay

    Advice please, if you don’t mind. What do you drink instead of alcohol? I can’t stand fizzy drinks, don’t like Clayton’s ‘beer’.

    Currently – mostly Coffee – very large mug (that’s prolly both the drink and me). Instant coffee (Nescafe Gold) a couple of teaspoonsful, lots of sugar and milk. Yum.

    In the warm weather I have many bottles of various flavour fizzy drinks plus cold water.

    When an almost unquenchable thirst decends – is the time for a milkshake container half filled with icecream and with ginger beer or other carbonated drink to suit. This is, of course, a “Spider.” Maybe not Heaven but

    Oh-me, oh-my, oh-you …

    Over and out for now. 😎

    Kombucha available from Coles and Woolworths. Not my cup of tea. 😎

    Project for today – sign the Rudd petition.

  9. KayJay

    Thanks but I’m trying to cut down on milk and have banned sugar. Life’s getting a bit tough as I’m determined to lose the weight I’ve put on during winter. It’s not vanity (not ‘alf) but also none of last year’s clothes fit. And unlike the Tories I don’t blame lockdown!

  10. I’ve not heard of this Rudd petition anywhere but here, and only in terms of how people cannot access it. I’m beginning to think it’s just a massive spam effort.

  12. Socrates @ #102 Monday, October 12th, 2020 – 9:26 am

    FYI I just tried to sign the Rudd petition at the APH webiste. After two attempts I still could not succeed. First it would not let me “confirm”. Then it thought I was a robot. Despite multiple clicks it would not accept my attempt to sign. Successful signatures are now > 80,000.
    https://www.aph.gov.au/petition_list?id=EN1938

    Who did they put in charge of the APH website? Stuart Roberts?

    I’ve been trying on and off for three days.

  13. Yabba @ #107 Monday, October 12th, 2020 – 9:46 am

    Petition signed. Now up to 84,498 signatures.

    Confessions @ #111 Monday, October 12th, 2020 – 9:44 am

    I’ve not heard of this Rudd petition anywhere but here, and only in terms of how people cannot access it. I’m beginning to think it’s just a massive spam effort.

    There is a direct link to it on the Guardian story about it.

    ‘I’ve not heard of this Rudd petition anywhere but here’
    Gee, I thought the Murdoch press would be all over it.

  14. I like juice of a freshly squeezed lemon in a glass of water. Simple as and good icy cold or hot depending on the season. A couple of limes as an alternative.

  15. Got through first time this morning (other days different), to sign the media petition. . Number now at 84000

    Confessions @9.44 : See my post at 9.40 for interview on ABC’s RN between Fran Kelly and Kevin Rudd.

  17. Mundo hopes at least one Realist will post commentary on tonight’s Alboganza on the ABC. And the Dreamers will keep the ‘Albo’s-hitting-it-out-of-the-park!’ stuff to a minimum. Unless he is of course, but that’ll be picked up by the Realist.

  21. brew some tea….matcha is good, but anything really, chill it, add lemon zest and ginger juice, or just lemon zest, and a little hit of Tabasco.
    Good with celery juice added as well.

  23. Yabba @ #111 Monday, October 12th, 2020 – 8:46 am

    Petition signed. Now up to 84,498 signatures.

    Confessions @ #111 Monday, October 12th, 2020 – 9:44 am

    I’ve not heard of this Rudd petition anywhere but here, and only in terms of how people cannot access it. I’m beginning to think it’s just a massive spam effort.

    There is a direct link to it on the Guardian story about it.

    Rudd had a long interview about it on ABC News Breakfast his morning. Minimal pushback form the hosts and Rudd got to ventilate just about all the points you would see here on PB about the topic, including Murdoch media’s agenda setting ability of which Breakfast has been one of the vehicles. Almost as if the hosts were relieved that they might be free of following the leader quite so closely in future.

    With the decline of Trump, I’m starting to get the feeling that the robber barons who had gained control of right wing politics in the anglosphere are at the very least in damage control and hopefully going backwards at a good rate of knots. Perhaps I’m an incurable optimist, but I think we’re starting to see the second order effects of the pandemic kicking in.

    Also note that the LNP have obviously had a lot of pushback on Jobseeker. The absolute dead bat they were playing after the budget on a permanent increase has now morphed into a stated “we’ll look at it down the track”. I know that has been their “official” position for a while but I was a bit surprised they didn’t at least restate it at the time of the budget.

  28. Poroti
    “I like juice of a freshly squeezed lemon in a glass of water. Simple as and good icy cold or hot depending on the season. A couple of limes as an alternative.”
    Which is as good an example as there is as to why there exists no outrage and change of voting patterns as exemplified by this latest poll.
    With respect to Poroti explaining a drink preference, the cumulative sum of these preference shows the extent of non engagement by the the Australian voting public.
    The public are totally “immuned” to change.
    Covid 19 just doesn’t rate as a concern and is probably why Australia can expect more outbreaks before Christmas.
    There is more interest in choice of Melbourne Cup function attire than Covid 19.

  30. ajm @ #119 Monday, October 12th, 2020 – 9:59 am

    Yabba @ #111 Monday, October 12th, 2020 – 8:46 am

    Petition signed. Now up to 84,498 signatures.

    Confessions @ #111 Monday, October 12th, 2020 – 9:44 am

    I’ve not heard of this Rudd petition anywhere but here, and only in terms of how people cannot access it. I’m beginning to think it’s just a massive spam effort.

    There is a direct link to it on the Guardian story about it.

    Rudd had a long interview about it on ABC News Breakfast his morning. Minimal pushback form the hosts and Rudd got to ventilate just about all the points you would see here on PB about the topic, including Murdoch media’s agenda setting ability of which Breakfast has been one of the vehicles. Almost as if the hosts were relieved that they might be free of following the leader quite so closely in future.

    With the decline of Trump, I’m starting to get the feeling that the robber barons who had gained control of right wing politics in the anglosphere are at the very least in damage control and hopefully going backwards at a good rate of knots. Perhaps I’m an incurable optimist, but I think we’re starting to see the second order effects of the pandemic kicking in.

    Also note that the LNP have obviously had a lot of pushback on Jobseeker. The absolute dead bat they were playing after the budget on a permanent increase has now morphed into a stated “we’ll look at it down the track”. I know that has been their “official” position for a while but I was a bit surprised they didn’t at least restate it at the time of the budget.

    There’ll be no ‘dead bat’ if hitting sixes is required to stay in government they’ll be bangin’ em all over the place…Labor will be able to applaud from the hill……

  31. AZ

    “Chris Eccles (Secretary – Dept of Premier and Cabinet in Victoria) has resigned effective immediately.”

    He was in the gun of Counsel Assisting submissions and those from the Department of Premier and Cabinet in his defence were tepid.

  32. from Grog’s article this morning:

    “nowhere was any table showing next year’s situation when the $1,080 low and middle income tax offset is removed.

    Next year workers on between $45,000 and $90,000 will actually be getting a $1,080 tax rise. Enjoy!”

    Is Albo and his team going to turn this into a sharp, catchy meme to run relentlessly until now and the election – something like “Morrisson’s tax cuts for the rich, tax rise for (almost) everyone else!” – and if not why not?!

  34. poroti @ #123 Monday, October 12th, 2020 – 10:02 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga
    Was not sure why re song and then while listening to it, 😆 ,of course !!! Well played sir.

    Goodness me Poroti, the ol’ 1-2-3-4-5, senses working over-time has appeared here several times in recent years……actually, for a time back there Making Plans For Nigel made an appearance in relation to Mundo’s dysfunctional proclivities.

  36. Big A Adrian @ #128 Monday, October 12th, 2020 – 10:05 am

    from Grog’s article this morning:

    “nowhere was any table showing next year’s situation when the $1,080 low and middle income tax offset is removed.

    Next year workers on between $45,000 and $90,000 will actually be getting a $1,080 tax rise. Enjoy!”

    Is Albo and his team going to turn this into a sharp, catchy meme to run relentlessly until now and the election – something like “Morrisson’s tax cuts for the rich, tax rise for (almost) everyone else!” – and if not why not?!

    I’m gobbsmacked.
    I hadn’t noticed this at all.
    This is huge.
    If Labor don’t pick this up…….(speechless)

  37. Meanwhile, a reminder of the congaline of NSW Liberal premiers….

    ‘Ms Berejiklian, who is not accused of any misconduct, is not the first premier to front the ICAC.

    Liberal premier Nick Greiner, who established the commission in the late 1980s, was ironically the ICAC’s first major scalp in 1992.

    He had been found to be “technically corrupt” after getting a job for former education minister Terry Metherell and while the Court of Appeal overturned that decision, his political career was finished.

    Decades later, in 2014, Premier Barry O’Farrell fell on the sword after his “memory fail” where he couldn’t recall getting a $3000 bottle of grange from Australian Water Holdings executive Nick Di Girolamo.

  38. mundo @ #132 Monday, October 12th, 2020 – 10:11 am

    Big A Adrian @ #128 Monday, October 12th, 2020 – 10:05 am

    from Grog’s article this morning:

    “nowhere was any table showing next year’s situation when the $1,080 low and middle income tax offset is removed.

    Next year workers on between $45,000 and $90,000 will actually be getting a $1,080 tax rise. Enjoy!”

    Is Albo and his team going to turn this into a sharp, catchy meme to run relentlessly until now and the election – something like “Morrisson’s tax cuts for the rich, tax rise for (almost) everyone else!” – and if not why not?!

    I’m gobbsmacked.
    I hadn’t noticed this at all.
    This is huge.
    If Labor don’t pick this up…….(speechless)

    ‘….(speechless)’
    Good.
    (there, I did it for you)

  39. How close?

    ‘The New South Wales premier, Gladys Berejiklian, has told the Independent Commission Against Corruption that she was in “a close personal relationship” with the former Wagga Wagga MP Daryl Maguire when he was forced to resign from parliament in 2018.

    Maguire is currently subject to an ICAC investigation for allegedly misusing his public office in the pursuit of his own financial interests, in particular a company called G8wayinternational Pty Ltd.

    Berejiklian was forced to appear after it emerged Maguire had given out her direct email address to racing heir and property developer Louise Raedler Waterhouse.

    But in the opening salvos of this hearing we’ve heard that Maguire and Berejiklian were involved in a “close personal relationship” before he was forced to resign. The relationship was kept private from parliamentary colleagues, she has told Icac, because she is “a very private person” and “didn’t feel the relationship had sufficient substance to be made public”.

    “We were close,” she said.

    Berejiklian said she stayed in contact with Maguire after he was forced to resign. “He was someone in a very bad state [and] after having known him for 15 years I felt I should check on his welfare,” she said.

  43. I must say, the video stream of the NSW ICAC is very professional, leaves the pokey Victorian inquiry setup looking amateur

    Just watching Gladys trying to save her Premiership…

  46. sprocket_ @ #139 Monday, October 12th, 2020 – 10:14 am

    How close?

    ‘The New South Wales premier, Gladys Berejiklian, has told the Independent Commission Against Corruption that she was in “a close personal relationship” with the former Wagga Wagga MP Daryl Maguire when he was forced to resign from parliament in 2018.

    Maguire is currently subject to an ICAC investigation for allegedly misusing his public office in the pursuit of his own financial interests, in particular a company called G8wayinternational Pty Ltd.

    Berejiklian was forced to appear after it emerged Maguire had given out her direct email address to racing heir and property developer Louise Raedler Waterhouse.

    But in the opening salvos of this hearing we’ve heard that Maguire and Berejiklian were involved in a “close personal relationship” before he was forced to resign. The relationship was kept private from parliamentary colleagues, she has told Icac, because she is “a very private person” and “didn’t feel the relationship had sufficient substance to be made public”.

    “We were close,” she said.

    Berejiklian said she stayed in contact with Maguire after he was forced to resign. “He was someone in a very bad state [and] after having known him for 15 years I felt I should check on his welfare,” she said.

    Well that escalated quickly…

  47. I’ve just had to endure a rant from an anti-Andrews voter who gave the American cops as an example of “what’s happening in Victoria”. If only Dutton hadn’t wanted everyone dressed in black riot gear!

  48. sprocket_

    I must say, the video stream of the NSW ICAC is very professional, leaves the pokey Victorian inquiry setup looking amateur

    Well they have had a lot more experience 😉

  50. Berejiklian said she stayed in contact with Maguire after he was forced to resign. “He was someone in a very bad state [and] after having known him for 15 years I felt I should check on his welfare,” she said.

    Gladys going for the Sympathy Vote to get herself (and Dazza too if they’re lucky), out of hot water.

    Neither of them dederve any sympathy at all. They would have none for a Labor politician in the same exalted political positions.

    Hey, here’s an idea, maybe Darryl McGuire shouldn’t have used his position in the NSW Parliament for personal gain?

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