Miscellany: Groom by-election, Victoria poll, perceptions of US

A by-election looms in an uncompetitive seat; a poll shows Labor maintaining a lead in Victoria in spite of everything; and regard for the United States and its President falls still further.

First up, note the new-ish posts below on a YouGov poll for South Australia and Adrian Beaumont’s latest on the US race.

• A federal by-election looms for the seat of the Queensland Groom, centred on Toowoomba. This follows yesterday’s announcement by Liberal-aligned LNP member John McVeigh, the member since 2016 and previously state member for Toowoomba South from 2012,. that he will retire due to his wife’s illness. With Labor having polled 18.7% of the primary vote in the seat at the 2019 election, it seems a fairly safe bet that they will be sitting this one out. To the extent that the seat has been interesting it has been as a battleground between the Liberals and the Nationals, most recently when McVeigh’s predecessor, Ian Macfarlane, had his bid to defect from the former to the latter blocked by the Liberal National Party administration in 2015. John McVeigh’s father, Tom McVeigh, held the seat for the National/Country Party from 1972 to 1988 (it was known until 1984 as Darling Downs), but it passed to the Liberal control at the by-election following his retirement.

• Roy Morgan has an SMS poll of state voting intention in Victoria, and while the methodology may be dubious, it delivers a rebuke to the news media orthodoxy in crediting Daniel Andrews’ Labor government with a two-party lead of 51.5-48.5. The primary votes are Labor 37%, Coalition 38.5% and Greens 12.5%. The results at the 2018 election were Labor 42.9%, Coalition 35.2% and Greens 10.7%, with Labor winning the two-party vote 57.3-42.7. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1147.

• An international poll by the Pew Research Centre finds 94% of Australians believe their country has handled the pandemic well and 6% badly, whereas 85% think the United States has handled it badly and 14% well, while the respective numbers for China are 25% and 73%. Twenty-three per cent have confidence in Donald Trump to do the right think for world affairs, down from 35% last year, equaling a previous low recorded for George W. Bush in 2008. Only 33% of Australians have a favourable view of the United States, down from 50% last year, a change similar to that for all other nations surveyed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

671 comments on “Miscellany: Groom by-election, Victoria poll, perceptions of US”

Comments Page 6 of 14
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  3. I wouldn’t get too excited about the Palmer deregistration news. The Palmer United Party was deregistered on 5 May 2017, but he registered the United Australia Party on 12 December 2018, in good time for the 2019 election.

  5. William Bowe @ #255 Saturday, September 19th, 2020 – 6:06 pm

    I wouldn’t get too excited about the Palmer deregistration news. The Palmer United Party was deregistered on 5 May 2017, but he registered the United Australia Party on 12 December 2018, in good time for the 2019 election.

    Don’t you think though, that if he keeps getting his ‘political party’ deregistered that that might say something to the electorate?

  7. Mexicanbeemer
    “The AEC May 2019.”
    I knew you would come out with that.
    The election was decided by a number of factors but was lost by the QLD redneck mining vote.
    The franking credits, which Bowen made the comment about, worked out well for Labor, surprisingly in the better off electorates.
    For yourself and others interested in factual research, and not Murdoch scaremongering hearsay here it is, exactly where Labor went wrong.:
    https://alp.org.au/media/2043/alp-campaign-review-2019.pdf

  8. TomTF&B
    Looking at the link it looks like the eastern suburbs will look very different after the next redistribution and looking at how some electorates will need to change makes calling the next state poll impossible.

  14. https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/09/19/miscellany-groom-election-victoria-poll-perceptions-us/comment-page-6/#comment-3483049

    The better off electorates have higher education levels and people in them were less likely to vote in fear of them, particularly the highly educated but not high income votes who understand franking credits better and know they don`t benefit the non-rich. I suspect that negative gearing was more of a vote changer than franking credits as it makes it harder for inner-city first home buyers.

    The less well educated electorates were targeted with the scare campaign and many of their voters fell for it. Similarly with negative gearing.

    The cuts to franking credits were very poorly targeted. People on high both share and non-share income were unaffected but retirees whose franking credits made up a significant proportion of their income were heavily effected.

  15. William,

    While you’re around, I’ve been wondering for a while if you might have insight on something polling related.

    On fivethirtyeight I’ve noticed several pollsters have several different polls with similar/the same sample size for the same area over the same time. Is this a deliberate attempt by the pollster to minimise sample error by doing simultaneous but seperate poll?

    Do you think that kind of thing would be beneficial in the Australian context?

  16. Whooah people.
    I didn’t intend my comment to set off a spate of name calling and abuse.
    Can we all just address the topic and not the shortfalls of the poster.
    We all have shortfalls but that is not what the discussion should be about.
    Happy Days

  18. https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/09/19/miscellany-groom-election-victoria-poll-perceptions-us/comment-page-6/#comment-3483050

    Even with the variables (electoral boundaries, the next Commonwealth election (an ALP Commonwealth government would be a drag on the state ALP`s vote) and future events), it is still the ALP`s to loose. The redistribution is likely to be comparative ALP friendly because Liberal and marginal eastern suburbs seats are likely to be replaced by western and northern suburbs seats and the Liberals have not won any of those since 1996 (a relatively good election for them). A 2022 (or 2021) elected Commonwealth ALP government would still be relatively young at the next state election and unlikely to be too much of a drag on the state ALP vote.

  19. With the death of Ruth, the impetus will change from the economy, Covid. I’m sure however that Biden will triumph. Incidentally, he did a fairly good job today.

  20. William,

    Like the recent Marist College national poll conducted between 11-16 of September. It lists two separate samples of 723 “likely voters” and a further two samples of 964 “registered voters”.

    On further reading it appears some of it may be “likely voters”, “anyone” and “registered” voters are listed separately despite likely being from the same field of voters. It could just be the way they put the data up on 538.

  22. Trump is getting so desperate to line up states in his column that he has promised aid for Puerto Rico!

    Puerto Ricans are a key swing demographic in Florida.

    (The Florida GOP reaching out to PR voters in 2018 was instrumental in the state resisting the “Blue Wave” and them winning both the Governor and US Senate races in that state, that year.)

  23. poroti: “This guy’s parents must rate as cruelest eva .
    Professor Richard Head
    Professor Head was the Director of CSIRO’s P-Health National Flagship and Chief of… Read more
    https://people.unisa.edu.au/richard.head”

    I had a bit to do with Professor Head a couple of decades back. Lovely bloke.

    He used to disarm people on first meeting by stating “Hi, I’m Richard Head, but please call me Dick.”

  24. First day of Early Voting in the US:

    MINNEAPOLIS — Jason Miller, a house painter in Minneapolis, had been itching to vote. So on the first day of early voting, the sun barely up on a chilly Friday morning, he became one of the first people in the country to cast his vote in person for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.

    “I’ve always said that I wanted to be the first person to vote against Donald Trump,” said Miller, 33. “I just couldn’t wait. I just couldn’t. . . . And for four years I have waited to do this, so here I am.”

    Early voting for the November election kicked off Friday in four states as voters showed up in person to cast their ballots, driven by a sense of urgency about the divisive presidential election, growing unease over the timely delivery of mail ballots, and fear of exposure to the novel coronavirus at the polls on Election Day.

    By this weekend, as many as 20 states will have begun some form of general election voting by mailing out absentee ballots or allowing people to cast them in person, giving Americans an opportunity to make their selections for president and other offices long before Nov. 3.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/long-lines-and-hand-sanitizer-on-the-first-day-of-early-voting-for-general-election/2020/09/18/a87969f6-f9bf-11ea-89e3-4b9efa36dc64_story.html

  25. https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/09/19/miscellany-groom-election-victoria-poll-perceptions-us/comment-page-6/#comment-3483054

    No Liberal held electorate in Melbourne has elected anything other than Liberal, ALP or Green since 1961 and that was the sitting MP who had lost his endorsement. Before than you have to go back to the Electoral Reform (dissident Liberals against malapportionment, including their leader who was the previous Liberal Leader and replaced his successor an member for Glen Iris) victories in 1952.

  26. Mexicanbeemer
    “I thought the ALP review did a good job of identifying where it went wrong.”
    Absolutely!
    Labors reviews never attempt to gloss over just what went wrong.
    However they should use their reviews to set future policy, so they don’t do it all wrong again.
    At the moment I can’t see any sign of Labor heeding that.
    As a staunch Labor person I find it disappointing.

  28. Tom I & best
    The cuts to franking credits were very poorly targeted. People on high both share and non-share income were unaffected but retirees whose franking credits made up a significant proportion of their income were heavily effected.

    The franking credit change only affected those whose taxable income was below the tax threshold. This included many with substantial superannuation pensions, where both the income and capital portions are tax free. It would have no effect on non-share owners and little effect those with jobs or business income.

    So basically share-owning retirees are being sent free money. If someone is receiving $10000 p.a. in franking credits they have about $500,000 in shares – hardly worth getting out the sad violins. If they weren’t in a favoured demographic they’d be demonised mercilessly by the LNP-Murdoch Coalition.

    Anyway, anyone who bases their retirement security on a rort like this is an idiot.

  29. C@tmomma @ #274 Saturday, September 19th, 2020 – 6:55 pm

    First day of Early Voting in the US:

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    MINNEAPOLIS — Jason Miller, a house painter in Minneapolis, had been itching to vote. So on the first day of early voting, the sun barely up on a chilly Friday morning, he became one of the first people in the country to cast his vote in person for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.

    “I’ve always said that I wanted to be the first person to vote against Donald Trump,” said Miller, 33. “I just couldn’t wait. I just couldn’t. . . . And for four years I have waited to do this, so here I am.”

    Early voting for the November election kicked off Friday in four states as voters showed up in person to cast their ballots, driven by a sense of urgency about the divisive presidential election, growing unease over the timely delivery of mail ballots, and fear of exposure to the novel coronavirus at the polls on Election Day.

    By this weekend, as many as 20 states will have begun some form of general election voting by mailing out absentee ballots or allowing people to cast them in person, giving Americans an opportunity to make their selections for president and other offices long before Nov. 3.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/long-lines-and-hand-sanitizer-on-the-first-day-of-early-voting-for-general-election/2020/09/18/a87969f6-f9bf-11ea-89e3-4b9efa36dc64_story.html

    All that blue is a dead giveaway!

  30. C@tmomma:

    Saturday, September 19, 2020 at 6:55 pm

    [‘First day of Early Voting in the US:’]

    I get the strong feeling that most are over this apology for a man.

  31. Re the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg: I can’t really see it making a huge difference in the election. Any voter interested enough in politics to care about who would fill a Supreme Court vacancy would surely have already been aware that this vacancy would probably be coming up soon after the election.

    If the Republicans attempt to fill the vacancy quickly, there is likely to be a bit of argy bargy around their blatant hypocrisy given their blocking of Merrick Garland’s nomination in 2016 and the reasons they gave for that. But that sort of stuff doesn’t tend to shift many votes.

  32. C@tmomma
    “First day of Early Voting in the US”

    That is so good.
    This is not boding very well for Trump.
    *My weekly investment on a Biden Presidency on TAB is looking very good.
    $1.84 at the moment, much better than bank interest, have been securing odds of $2.10 earlier.
    Better than a Xmas saving account.
    Cheers.
    *Tabcorp’s gambling operations are governed by its Responsible Gambling Code of Conduct and for South Australian residents by the South Australian Responsible Gambling Code of Practice. Think! About your choices. Call Gambler’s Help, Gambling Help or the ACT Gambling Counselling & Support Service on 1800 858 858 http://www.gamblinghelp.nsw.gov.au or http://www.gamblinghelponline.org.au. Think of the people who need your support. Gamble Responsibly.

  35. While those long, eager queues are heartwarming, at least just for seeing so many people eager to exercise their civic duty, I remember also feeling hopeful at the long queues to vote in 2004 and believing Bush was finished.

  39. Rational Leftist @ #285 Saturday, September 19th, 2020 – 7:11 pm

    While those long, eager queues are heartwarming, at least just for seeing so many people eager to exercise their civic duty, I remember also feeling hopeful at the long queues to vote in 2004 and believing Bush was finished.

    There’s a discussion to be had about that statement. Firstly I’d have to make the observation that the Republican Party at that time had some really talented operatives like Jim Baker who were prepared to go to the mat for W and they won by being very sharp operators. Also Al Gore was a Southern Gentleman who let W and the whole shit show in the courts and with the ‘Hanging Chads’ play out to W’s benefit so as not to see civil unrest in the country.

    I’m not so sure that applies to Trump World, or to the Democrats in 2020.

    Plus, George W.Bush was a Republican through and through and there were so many more people prepared to vote for him simply because of that. I’m doubtful that, beyond the rusted-on Trump cult, that everyone who identifies as a Republican is going to enthusiastically turn out for him on election day. I reckon there are a large number of Republicans as well as Democrats who just want Trump gone.

    So I think, and I hope, that 2004 won’t repeat itself in the same way.

  40. meher baba:

    Saturday, September 19, 2020 at 7:05 pm

    [‘But that sort of stuff doesn’t tend to shift many votes.’]

    True, dear. But around four Republican senators are on the record for saying that an outgoing president should await.

  41. Another reason to avoid going to the dentist.

    A former dentist who was filmed extracting a patient’s tooth while standing on a hoverboard has been sentenced to 12 years in jail, according to a statement from the Alaska Department of Law.

    Seth Lookhart, 35, was convicted on 46 felony and misdemeanor counts in January, including medical assistance fraud, scheme to defraud, illegal practice of dentistry and reckless endangerment.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/17/us/alaska-dentist-hoverboard-sentencing-trnd/index.html

  42. We have had two Australian political anniversaries this week:

    – the seventh anniversary of Tony Abbott being sworn in as PM on the 18th
    – on a more cheerful note, a few days earlier, the 5th anniversary of his departure.

  43. BTW, someone (the other MB?) posted earlier that nobody on PB expects Trump to win.

    I had previously seen Trump as a near certainty, and I still consider him to have a better than 50/50 chance. But Biden has been doing quite well lately.

    Contrary to what I once thought, and what quite a few US pundits had been saying, I think Biden’s best strategy for the rest of the campaign is not to hide away in his basement, but to get out and campaign as hard as he can. His recent appearances have featured a number of gaffes and have reinforced the sense that he is becoming a little senile, but they have also allowed him to demonstrate his skill and experience as a politician when compared to the amateurish Trump. He looks presidential, which is extremely helpful for him right now.

    So, in the contest between the candidates, Biden is going pretty well right now. However, the state of play in the contest between the parties is a different matter and could still tilt the outcome Trump’s way.

    It will all hang on the extent to which Biden and the mainstream of his party can distance themselves from the behaviours and aspirations of those to their left on the US political spectrum; ie, those who engage in or support the rioting, looting, statue-toppling, menacing of al fresco diners, etc. US political history does not indicate a tendency on the part of voters to embrace aggressive left politics. Of course there is a first time for everything, but I rather doubt that the 2020 election is going to be it.

  44. Mavis: “True, dear. But around four Republican senators are on the record for saying that an outgoing president should await.”

    Which, by rights, should put the issue to bed for the duration of the campaign.

  45. On Steele Sidebottom. Apart from being a tremendous footballer with exquisite skills and goal sense he also won the 2010 Name of the Year Contest, beating in the final American cheerleader and firm favorite Charity Beaver.

  47. True, dear. But around four Republican senators are on the record for saying that an outgoing president should await.

    Really? I haven’t been paying too close attention today. I know of Romney and Murkowski, who are the other two?

  48. meher baba:

    Saturday, September 19, 2020 at 7:33 pm

    [‘Which, by rights, should put the issue to bed for the duration of the campaign.’]

    Pigs might fly.

  49. Rational Leftist @ #296 Saturday, September 19th, 2020 – 7:40 pm

    True, dear. But around four Republican senators are on the record for saying that an outgoing president should await.

    Really? I haven’t been paying too close attention today. I know of Romney and Murkowski, who are the other two?

    Susan Collins (until Mitch McConnell puts the weights on her again, I guess) and maybe Chuck Grassley and possibly even Lindsay Graham!
    https://edition.cnn.com/us/live-news/ruth-bader-ginsburg-death-live-updates/h_73403b4eaf42724ec9db79154591d223

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