Miscellany: Groom by-election, Victoria poll, perceptions of US

A by-election looms in an uncompetitive seat; a poll shows Labor maintaining a lead in Victoria in spite of everything; and regard for the United States and its President falls still further.

First up, note the new-ish posts below on a YouGov poll for South Australia and Adrian Beaumont’s latest on the US race.

• A federal by-election looms for the seat of the Queensland Groom, centred on Toowoomba. This follows yesterday’s announcement by Liberal-aligned LNP member John McVeigh, the member since 2016 and previously state member for Toowoomba South from 2012,. that he will retire due to his wife’s illness. With Labor having polled 18.7% of the primary vote in the seat at the 2019 election, it seems a fairly safe bet that they will be sitting this one out. To the extent that the seat has been interesting it has been as a battleground between the Liberals and the Nationals, most recently when McVeigh’s predecessor, Ian Macfarlane, had his bid to defect from the former to the latter blocked by the Liberal National Party administration in 2015. John McVeigh’s father, Tom McVeigh, held the seat for the National/Country Party from 1972 to 1988 (it was known until 1984 as Darling Downs), but it passed to the Liberal control at the by-election following his retirement.

• Roy Morgan has an SMS poll of state voting intention in Victoria, and while the methodology may be dubious, it delivers a rebuke to the news media orthodoxy in crediting Daniel Andrews’ Labor government with a two-party lead of 51.5-48.5. The primary votes are Labor 37%, Coalition 38.5% and Greens 12.5%. The results at the 2018 election were Labor 42.9%, Coalition 35.2% and Greens 10.7%, with Labor winning the two-party vote 57.3-42.7. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1147.

• An international poll by the Pew Research Centre finds 94% of Australians believe their country has handled the pandemic well and 6% badly, whereas 85% think the United States has handled it badly and 14% well, while the respective numbers for China are 25% and 73%. Twenty-three per cent have confidence in Donald Trump to do the right think for world affairs, down from 35% last year, equaling a previous low recorded for George W. Bush in 2008. Only 33% of Australians have a favourable view of the United States, down from 50% last year, a change similar to that for all other nations surveyed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

671 comments on “Miscellany: Groom by-election, Victoria poll, perceptions of US”

Comments Page 5 of 14
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  5. Rational Leftist,
    The Never Trumpers are more fiscally conservative than socially conservative, afaik. So they probably won’t be drawn back into the fold by a Trump nominee. Anyway, they’ve been Never Trumpers while he has appointed 2 highly conservative Supreme Court justices and it didn’t drive them back into the arms of Trump then.

  7. Carrick Ryan
    @realCarrickRyan
    · Aug 23
    Observation: at least 42% of all anti-vaxxer conspiracy theorests in Australia are personal trainers.

    They can’t find anyone to give them a job?

  11. I think Clive Palmer gave the game away when he stated that he was going to ‘enlist’ candidates to run in the Queensland state election.

  13. RBG gave the Democrats the perfect means of avoiding getting tripped up by any consequences of her death – “My most fervent wish is that I will not be replaced until a new president is installed.” All they have to do is say they intend to respect her dying wish.

    No doubt this is exactly what she intended.

  14. C@tmomma @ #211 Saturday, September 19th, 2020 – 4:51 pm

    I think Clive Palmer gave the game away when he stated that he was going to ‘enlist’ candidates to run in the Queensland state election.

    C@tmomma @ #211 Saturday, September 19th, 2020 – 4:51 pm

    I think Clive Palmer gave the game away when he stated that he was going to ‘enlist’ candidates to run in the Queensland state election.

    I think it only relates to their federal registration. I think they will still be registered as a party for Queensland electoral purposes.

  20. I think for Trump his estimate of his chances of winning the election will be more important than getting a conservative judge appointed. After all, it always all about him.

    However, it is very difficult to work out whether the pro or anti Trump effect on the election would be the larger if they push the appointment, so there’s a fair chance the Trump forces will misjudge it.

  21. Looks like Tim Smith is inspiring a Tony Abbottesque uprising of the electorate in Kew:

    Time’s Up Tim
    @TimesUpTimSmith
    ·
    Sep 17
    Tim Smith has eroded the Liberal vote in Kew. He took a 5% hit in 2014, he lost another 5.9% in 2018, he doesn’t have another 5% left. 4.8% and he could be gone. It’s no longer a safe seat. We’re gunna do this, Kew. In 2022 we say #TimesUpTim

  24. C@tmomma @ #218 Saturday, September 19th, 2020 – 5:06 pm

    ajm,
    So a similar test doesn’t apply in Queensland?

    There will be a similar test but I suspect it is not exactly the same criteria. On top of that, it would have to be the Electoral Commission of Queensland that would have to move to deregister them and they probably haven’t done so yet.

    Although the State and Federal electoral rolls are merged in Queensland (not sure what happens elsewhere) other aspects of electoral regulation such as registration of parties is governed by state legislation. That’s also the reason why we have $1,000 donation limits and online real time donation disclosure in Queensland (just to show everyone else how it’s done)

  25. https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/09/19/miscellany-groom-election-victoria-poll-perceptions-us/comment-page-5/#comment-3483011

    As much as I don`t like Tim Smith, 2018 was almost certainly a high water election for the ALP in Victoria, after 2 elections of gaining votes, so I expect the swing back to the Liberals to increase his margin in 2022. Melbourne is also less prone to electing independents in suburban Liberal seats than Sydney (particularly Northern Sydney).

  27. Don’t know if this is true but I suspect it is:

    Brian Tyler Cohen
    @briantylercohen
    ·
    41m
    Wow. Significant earthquake in LA. Because of course.

  28. I would have no problem if some of those Covidiots continually protesting in Melbourne were locked up for the night under current SoE laws. A genuine menace putting public health at risk.

  31. Tom the First and the Best,

    Perhaps, but I don’t think Smith’s increased profile is working in his favour and he doesn’t exactly represent an electorate that appreciates that level of… maverickness.

    Not sure if it’s been mentioned but he recently had a facebook post that went viral for reasons that he wouldn’t appreciate.

  32. some of the swing against the ALP in 2019 was voters who lost their jobs or whose parents lost their jobs in industries where tariffs were phased out under Hawke and/or Keating being reminded of the tariff cuts and job losses by Hawke`s death. (Not helped by Keating`s post campaign launch interview).

    I sincerely doubt punishing a government from the 1980s was the motivation of a single swinging voter in 2019.

  35. You may have heard Trump mention “Patriot education”. This is worth a read:

    Jeff Sharlet @JeffSharlet https://twitter.com/JeffSharlet/status/1306941956019322880
    “Patriotic education” is Stephen Miller’s fascism + Mike Pence’s fundamentalism. Some years ago, I took a course in “patriotic education” for my book THE FAMILY. I spent a season reading its textbooks & talking to its teachers. Here’s what to expect… A thread.
    9:03 PM · Sep 18, 2020

    Read the full thread at https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1306941956019322880.html

  37. Player One
    “Ouch! One of the lowlights of ALP history. A history which has recently been exceedingly rich with such lowlights ”

    Only a lowlight according to you.
    I thought it was great Bowen telling people that if you don’t like it then don’t vote for it.
    Turns out a lot of people would like to revisit their votes from the last election and wish they had heeded Bowens advice.
    So no lowlights from your side of politics?
    Or have all other parties have such an abundance of highlights that the term lowlights is not in their vocabulary?
    Not even going to waste my time highlighting the LNP’s lowlights, Federal and State for you.
    The list would take up most of my Saturday night so not going there.
    You know what they are, but hey, it’s all about Labor isn’t it?

  39. Tim Smith’s future depends on the next redistribution because the VEC could abolish Kew or Hawthorn then run one electorate west of Burke Rd but regardless Tim Smith looks safe in 2022.

  40. Been There
    That was the start of the end for the ALP in 2019 so sure it played well among the party faithful but was a massive mistake.

  41. Been There @ #237 Saturday, September 19th, 2020 – 5:46 pm

    Player One
    “Ouch! One of the lowlights of ALP history. A history which has recently been exceedingly rich with such lowlights ”

    Only a lowlight according to you.
    I thought it was great Bowen telling people that if you don’t like it then don’t vote for it.
    Turns out a lot of people would like to revisit their votes from the last election and wish they had heeded Bowens advice.
    So no lowlights from your side of politics?
    Or have all other parties have such an abundance of highlights that the term lowlights is not in their vocabulary?
    Not even going to waste my time highlighting the LNP’s lowlights, Federal and State for you.
    The list would take up most of my Saturday night so not going there.
    You know what they are, but hey, it’s all about Labor isn’t it?

    For Player One it’s all about Player One. They have a hide as thick as Jessie the Cow and think that although, as Mr Bowe pointed out the other night, no one here much likes Player One, Player One has decided to keep turning up and reminding us why that opinion is based upon fact by continuing to be a sneering smart arse.

  44. Mexicanbeemer @ #240 Saturday, September 19th, 2020 – 5:55 pm

    Been There
    That was the start of the end for the ALP in 2019 so sure it played well among the party faithful but was a massive mistake.

    It only became that way because the media and the Coalition turned what he said into another, ‘Well I guess you could call it a Carbon Tax’, misrepresentation of what he actually meant when he said it and then hammered it all the way to the election.

  45. C@tmomma @ #241 Saturday, September 19th, 2020 – 5:58 pm

    Been There @ #237 Saturday, September 19th, 2020 – 5:46 pm

    Player One
    “Ouch! One of the lowlights of ALP history. A history which has recently been exceedingly rich with such lowlights ”

    Only a lowlight according to you.
    I thought it was great Bowen telling people that if you don’t like it then don’t vote for it.
    Turns out a lot of people would like to revisit their votes from the last election and wish they had heeded Bowens advice.
    So no lowlights from your side of politics?
    Or have all other parties have such an abundance of highlights that the term lowlights is not in their vocabulary?
    Not even going to waste my time highlighting the LNP’s lowlights, Federal and State for you.
    The list would take up most of my Saturday night so not going there.
    You know what they are, but hey, it’s all about Labor isn’t it?

    For Player One it’s all about Player One. They have a hide as thick as Jessie the Cow and think that although, as Mr Bowe pointed out the other night, no one here much likes Player One, Player One has decided to keep turning up and reminding us why that opinion is based upon fact by continuing to be a sneering smart arse.

    She certainly seems to be embracing her inner DTT.

  46. Mexicanbeemer
    “That was the start of the end for the ALP in 2019 so sure it played well among the party faithful but was a massive mistake.”

    Any reputable research done into whether that was a massive mistake?
    Links if so please.
    Until then that statement is your thoughts only, as you are entitled to.
    Cheers.

  48. https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/09/19/miscellany-groom-election-victoria-poll-perceptions-us/comment-page-5/#comment-3483031

    The Electoral Boundaries Commission is unlikely to abolish either Kew or Hawthorn as they are significantly less than 10% under quota and the Yarra represents a natural boundary and starting point for electorates. They are almost certain to gain territory and voters from Burwood and and Box Hill to make up for the loss of significantly further bellow quota seats further out (Rowville and Forrest Hill are both 10% or more further under quota than Kew or Hawthorn).

    https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/-/media/296ebbc29d474bdf89bd397987497d89.ashx?la=en
    (electorate enrolments on pages 57 and 58)

    The 2019-2020 annual report will provide more up to date statistics later this year.

  49. C@tmomma @ #241 Saturday, September 19th, 2020 – 5:58 pm

    For Player One it’s all about Player One. They have a hide as thick as Jessie the Cow and think that although, as Mr Bowe pointed out the other night, no one here much likes Player One, Player One has decided to keep turning up and reminding us why that opinion is based upon fact by continuing to be a sneering smart arse.

    I’ve tried to be polite … but to no avail. So how about you just fuck off, C@t?

    If this gets me banned, small loss. I rate William on psephology. On other things, such as character assessment, sense of humour, and even politics, his opinion is worth about the same as most other people here. Which is about twice as much as yours.

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