Miscellany: Groom by-election, Victoria poll, perceptions of US

A by-election looms in an uncompetitive seat; a poll shows Labor maintaining a lead in Victoria in spite of everything; and regard for the United States and its President falls still further.

First up, note the new-ish posts below on a YouGov poll for South Australia and Adrian Beaumont’s latest on the US race.

• A federal by-election looms for the seat of the Queensland Groom, centred on Toowoomba. This follows yesterday’s announcement by Liberal-aligned LNP member John McVeigh, the member since 2016 and previously state member for Toowoomba South from 2012,. that he will retire due to his wife’s illness. With Labor having polled 18.7% of the primary vote in the seat at the 2019 election, it seems a fairly safe bet that they will be sitting this one out. To the extent that the seat has been interesting it has been as a battleground between the Liberals and the Nationals, most recently when McVeigh’s predecessor, Ian Macfarlane, had his bid to defect from the former to the latter blocked by the Liberal National Party administration in 2015. John McVeigh’s father, Tom McVeigh, held the seat for the National/Country Party from 1972 to 1988 (it was known until 1984 as Darling Downs), but it passed to the Liberal control at the by-election following his retirement.

• Roy Morgan has an SMS poll of state voting intention in Victoria, and while the methodology may be dubious, it delivers a rebuke to the news media orthodoxy in crediting Daniel Andrews’ Labor government with a two-party lead of 51.5-48.5. The primary votes are Labor 37%, Coalition 38.5% and Greens 12.5%. The results at the 2018 election were Labor 42.9%, Coalition 35.2% and Greens 10.7%, with Labor winning the two-party vote 57.3-42.7. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1147.

• An international poll by the Pew Research Centre finds 94% of Australians believe their country has handled the pandemic well and 6% badly, whereas 85% think the United States has handled it badly and 14% well, while the respective numbers for China are 25% and 73%. Twenty-three per cent have confidence in Donald Trump to do the right think for world affairs, down from 35% last year, equaling a previous low recorded for George W. Bush in 2008. Only 33% of Australians have a favourable view of the United States, down from 50% last year, a change similar to that for all other nations surveyed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

671 comments on “Miscellany: Groom by-election, Victoria poll, perceptions of US”

Comments Page 7 of 14
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  2. Rational Leftist:

    Saturday, September 19, 2020 at 7:40 pm

    [‘Really? I haven’t been paying too close attention today. I know of Romney and Murkowski, who are the other two?’]

    I’m not sure, but Moscow Mitch will bring them into line, threatening their endorsement.

  3. meher baba says Saturday, September 19, 2020 at 7:32 pm

    Contrary to what I once thought, and what quite a few US pundits had been saying, I think Biden’s best strategy for the rest of the campaign is not to hide away in his basement, but to get out and campaign as hard as he can. His recent appearances have featured a number of gaffes and have reinforced the sense that he is becoming a little senile, but they have also allowed him to demonstrate his skill and experience as a politician when compared to the amateurish Trump. He looks presidential, which is extremely helpful for him right now.

    From what I understand, Biden has been gaffe prone his entire career. In his case, gaffes are a sign of normality rather than senility.

    It will all hang on the extent to which Biden and the mainstream of his party can distance themselves from the behaviours and aspirations of those to their left on the US political spectrum; ie, those who engage in or support the rioting, looting, statue-toppling, menacing of al fresco diners, etc. US political history does not indicate a tendency on the part of voters to embrace aggressive left politics. Of course there is a first time for everything, but I rather doubt that the 2020 election is going to be it.

    And what of the antics of the right wing militias?

  4. Even the Financial Times can see the writing on the Wall.

    “Boris Johnson’s readiness to tear up the UK’s reputation for honest dealing by rewriting the EU withdrawal deal has grabbed the headlines. The news, though, is worse. Legislation to create a post-Brexit single market across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland shows equal contempt for the UK’s constitutional settlement. By asserting unassailable English supremacy, the prime minister is inviting Scotland to leave the union. 
    ……….
    A common set of rules is certainly needed to allow the UK market to operate freely. Yet there is no reason why the other nations of the union should be barred a say in negotiating trade deals and the setting of standards, or that UK-wide norms must exclude a measure of national discretion. But no, English MPs at Westminster will decide what Scotland eats.”

    Boris Johnson’s Brexit plan will break the UK union

    https://www.ft.com/content/53af9378-e1c2-49d1-bf01-25319f218083


  5. Mavis says:
    Saturday, September 19, 2020 at 7:36 pm

    citizen:

    Saturday, September 19, 2020 at 7:24 pm

    Dentists, among professionals, have a higher suicide rate than even therapists.

    Is that true, I remember my dad commenting that physiatrist had the highest suicide rate in the medical profession and he put it down to the need to be slightly mad to try and understand such things.

  8. Someone (C@t?) mentioned nominative determinism with the ACT Liberals: Jeremy, Giulia(r) …
    Add (Ed) Cocks.

    Three word slogan: “End The Neglect”.
    Nursing homes? Nope.

    Standard cookie cutter unfunded promises on the back:
    * “Cut the cost of living” (freeze rates, cut services)
    * “Revive the health system” (privatise)
    * “Energise our schools” (increased KERs for teachers)
    * “Restore good planning” (developers know best)
    * “Protect our suburbs” (not your suburb.)

  9. meher baba says:
    Saturday, September 19, 2020 at 7:32 pm
    BTW, someone (the other MB?) posted earlier that nobody on PB expects Trump to win.

    I had previously seen Trump as a near certainty, and I still consider him to have a better than 50/50 chance. But Biden has been doing quite well lately.

    Contrary to what I once thought, and what quite a few US pundits had been saying, I think Biden’s best strategy for the rest of the campaign is not to hide away in his basement, but to get out and campaign as hard as he can. His recent appearances have featured a number of gaffes and have reinforced the sense that he is becoming a little senile, but they have also allowed him to demonstrate his skill and experience as a politician when compared to the amateurish Trump. He looks presidential, which is extremely helpful for him right now.

    So, in the contest between the candidates, Biden is going pretty well right now. However, the state of play in the contest between the parties is a different matter and could still tilt the outcome Trump’s way.

    It will all hang on the extent to which Biden and the mainstream of his party can distance themselves from the behaviours and aspirations of those to their left on the US political spectrum; ie, those who engage in or support the rioting, looting, statue-toppling, menacing of al fresco diners, etc. US political history does not indicate a tendency on the part of voters to embrace aggressive left politics. Of course there is a first time for everything, but I rather doubt that the 2020 election is going to be it.
    _______________________
    Its dangerous to have an alternate p.o.v on Pollbludger it detracts from the Labor uber alles vibe!

  10. https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/09/19/miscellany-groom-election-victoria-poll-perceptions-us/comment-page-6/#comment-3483071

    I am not a supporter of franking credits. I want them all gone, I just know that it needs a death of a thousand well designed cuts, not in one or two goes. I do not support share income earners getting the company income tax their company paid on their dividends back at all.

    I know franking credit refunds recipients include many people with tax free superannuation income*, however, I know that there are also many pre-super self-funded early retirees and non-super self-funded retirees who based their early retirement on franking credits and targeting these people all in one go was bad politics. Winging about them not having having investment policies you approve of is not useful either.

    Capping franking credits per-taxpayer would have been much better politics aimed at only very high income people and can then be extended in a death by a thousand cuts kind of way. Franking credit refunds as a problem is only evident to a certain type of tax policy wonks who support franking credits but think Howard went to far. Franking credit refunds are in fact the logical extension of franking credits. If high and middle taxable income earners get the corporate tax back on their share income, why shouldn`t low taxable income earners? A maximum 15% difference on share income taxation is rather flat tax for my liking.

    * Pension stage superannuation income being tax free is also a rort I oppose.

  11. frednk:

    [‘Is that true, I remember my dad commenting that physiatrist had the highest suicide rate in the medical profession and he put it down to the need to be slightly mad to try and understand such things.’]

    I’m not sure, though dentists inflict pain, whereas therapists inflict joy?

  13. Early voting in the ACT starts on Monday September 28, but the first two weeks are school holidays.
    I haven’t decided if it’s better to go early, or wait until the final week. (I’m not voting on the day.)

  14. Paying out franking credits to nett zero taxable income earners amounted to refunding company tax paid, in full, but not to the company, to the shareholders. Shareholders were and are an entirely different tax entity to the company, despite claims to the contrary. The upshot was that those companies paid no tax in the circumstances, in addition to the shareholders paying none.

    How is that “logical”? It’s a scam.

  15. The top 100 SMSF funds have an average of $80m in assets so assuming a 5% return get an average income of $4 million dollars or $600K in franking credit refunds.

    As they say in Toorak, “Its a reward for my hard work, lol”

    Still Labor obviously couldn’t sell it and managed to make it about pensioners.


  17. Bushfire Bill says:
    Saturday, September 19, 2020 at 8:18 pm
    …
    How is that “logical”? It’s a scam.

    It is a well defended scam.
    You do not do tax reform in an election campaign.
    Reform, those that lose campaign against it, those that benefit do not campaign for it.

  19. Tom the first and best
    “Pension stage superannuation income being tax free is also a rort I oppose.”

    Why is that Tom?
    It’s not a rort, it’s a reward.
    People who have got to that stage have paid more than their share of tax.
    Do you want to start taxing the aged pension as well?
    That’s where you’re heading.
    Basically no retirees should pay tax.

  20. https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/09/19/miscellany-groom-election-victoria-poll-perceptions-us/comment-page-7/#comment-3483108

    The whole of franking credits are a scam based on the “double taxation” propaganda concept. Applying it to only people who pay income tax and giving only half to the bottom income tax bracket is targeting the lower income beneficiaries for effectively higher taxes. When scrapping it, start from the top, not the bottom.


  22. An interesting five-part series on eucalypts; there is a short survey before you watch, and a short survey after each episode (probably optional, but not onerous.)
    https://www. rememberthewild.org.au/eucalypt/

    Bitdefender says:
    Fraudulent page blocked for your protection
    https://www. rememberthewild.org.au/eucalypt/
    Fraudulent pages usually attempt to trick you into sending money with the intent of obtaining unlawful gain.

    Had a look attempts to get your email.

  26. On further reading it appears some of it may be “likely voters”, “anyone” and “registered” voters are listed separately despite likely being from the same field of voters.

    Yes, that’s what it is. I don’t recall seeing “A” results before now — I think they may only have just started including these.

  27. Tom tfab,
    I don’t have a problem with franking credits as a concept, but refunds are problematic. Agree wholeheartedly that the path to franking credit reform is by a limit to the maximum credit claimable by any individual. I’m fairly certain that the UK do this.

  28. Re: Eucalypt videos:

    Had a look attempts to get your email.

    Yep – they want to nag you about the surveys.

    There’s a fine line between asking people to participate in surveys, and being obnoxious about it.
    I’d prefer that they were upfront about it, and didn’t use third party “providers” like EventBrite to offer “free tickets to our video launch” etc.

  29. https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/09/19/miscellany-groom-election-victoria-poll-perceptions-us/comment-page-7/#comment-3483113

    Tax free pension-phase super income is a rort. Retirees who receive income above the tax free bracket should pay income tax because:

    1. They are still receiving income and should contribute to society.

    2. Retirees still need government services.

    3. The population is aging and we can`t afford to be overly generous to wealthy retirees.

    4. Wealthy retirees usually have had good jobs, not hard and often dangerous low paid jobs who still pay tax under your plan.

    5. Subsidising wealthy retirees is usually subsiding the inheritance of their usually already well off heirs, perpetuating wealth inequality for no meritocratic gain.

    6. Tax free income for wealthy retirees does little to nothing to help poor retirees, who actually need help.

  31. https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/09/19/miscellany-groom-election-victoria-poll-perceptions-us/comment-page-7/#comment-3483121

    The refunds beyond tax personal paid are actually, at least in parts, not as bad as the refunds on personal tax paid because they go to people on lower taxable incomes and so are lower on the progressive taxation list of rort abolition. Problems with high non-taxable income individuals with little to no taxable income can getting low income taxpayer benefits be fixed by expanding the definition of taxable income.

    Glad to see you can see sense on capping as the means of abolition.

  32. In about 4 hours, I think, Taylormade. They are up to around the 10th rider in reverse order, of 140, with 2 mins between each. Sucks for us that Richie is coming 4th!

  34. Tom the first and best

    I’m only referring to withdrawals from your own super account.
    I agree that if your earning returns from super over the tax free threshold it should be taxed.
    Because if you are in a situation that you are earning $18,000 interest PA you have a serious amount of money set aside.
    With you on that one.

  40. Re Tom @9:34.

    The other thing is that “self funded” retirees were beneficiaries of generous tax concessions during their working lives – on their own and their employers’ contributions and on the earnings of their super. This helped boost their total super and their retirement pension. They should pay tax on the income portion of their pension – it is income after all.

    (Note: a super pension payment comprises investment income plus a return of capital. An actuary can work out the split. Return of capital is and should be tax free, but investment earnings are income and should be taxed, just like the wages of someone who couldn’t afford to retire and stayed in employment).

  42. Because if you are in a situation that you are earning $18,000 interest PA you have a serious amount of money set aside.

    We’ve been earning 15%-plus p/a off one of our accounts invested quite conservatively (just a regular “Balanced Investment” profile) with Australian Super for several years now. “Cash in the Bank” has been the absolute worst way to invest money in recent years.

    This account took a 10% hit in March-April, but has clawed back 8% of it since, to be not far below par.

    I’ve never been canny with money. I make it and I spend it. I rarely count it. Giving up the fags 32 months ago and taking HI’s investment advice by letting Australian Super do all the worrying, and not having to pay a mortgage has left me arguably financially better off (more to spend) than when I was grafting 10 hours a day, self-employed, earning big but spending big too (with the added stress of preparing both corporate and personal tax returns and quarterly BAS returns, yearly company registrations and so on).

    I have friends who ride their computers day-in, day-out, are always on Commsec (or its equivalent) buying, selling or just checking shares. They go to AGMs, get hot under the collar at supposed mismanagement, fire off letters to boards of directors and generally micro-manage their money to the Nth degree. Most achieve a lower or only slightly higher ROA than we do, for FAR more stress.

    I guess I’m lazy.

  43. Extract
    Vets are also four times more likely to take their own life than others, which is double the suicide rate of doctors, pharmacists, dentists and nurses.

  44. Horrible job, being a vet. Animals can’t rationalize suffering. They just know fear and pain when sick or injured.

    The look on the vet’s face when we took in that injured cat last week, and opened the box with him crumpled up inside it seemingly half-dead, was heart-rending. I could hardly watch.

    Thankfully a close to miraculous result ensued, with an almost fairy tale happy outcome. But that has to be very rare.

    Repeat: horrible job.

  45. Bushfire Bill says Saturday, September 19, 2020 at 11:14 pm

    I’ve never been canny with money. I make it and I spend it. I rarely count it. Giving up the fags 32 months ago and taking HI’s investment advice by letting Australian Super do all the worrying, and not having to pay a mortgage has left me arguably financially better off (more to spend) than when I was grafting 10 hours a day, self-employed, earning big but spending big too (with the added stress of preparing both corporate and personal tax returns and quarterly BAS returns, yearly company registrations and so on).

    I have friends who ride their computers day-in, day-out, are always on Commsec (or its equivalent) buying, selling or just checking shares. They go to AGMs, get hot under the collar at supposed mismanagement, fire off letters to boards of directors and generally micro-manage their money to the Nth degree. Most achieve a lower or only slightly higher ROA than we do, for FAR more stress.

    I guess I’m lazy.

    Index funds invariably out perform managed funds. The “lazy” investor can often beat the highly active investor because their costs are lower (it costs money to trade). So, I wouldn’t call it lazy, I’d call it smart.

  47. BTW I wasn’t trying to boast when I wrote “I make it and I spend it. I rarely count it.” It looks arrogant when put that way.

    I wasn’t making a fortune, but I was reasonably comfortable. But I had to work for it, and I frittered a lot of it away.

    Now, with vastly lower expenses and a more relaxed lifestyle, nett disposable income is easy to maintain on a lower gross income.

    Then, a packet of fags a day (worse now if I still smoked!), huge petrol bills involved in city driving, city living in general, mortgage payments, accountants’ fees… they all added up to a lot of unnecessary expense.

    OK so the Mid North Coast is hardly the throbbing heart of culture and civilisation, eating out, partying and general carousing that some believe Sydney is, or offers but, truth be known, we gave most of that up years ago anyway. We don’t even go to the cinema anymore because it’s just ridiculously expensive. Anyway, it all ends up on Netflix or YouTube eventually, for far less.

    Her Indoors has a network of girlfriends, her RFS administrative work and her beautiful garden to busy her. I have my photography, renovation work (mostly things I’m doing for the first time after a life writing software and designing optics in front of a computer screen, so lots of cock-ups in the “handyman” department, unless I take things slowly) and my (new) mates up here for a wine and an argument.

    And there is always a rent-a-dog that drops in for a visit, a turn at Uncle Bushfire’s Yummy Cupboard and a walk on the beach.

    Just as full a life, but different.

  50. Fiona Katauskas
    @FionaKatauskas
    ·
    The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing people that Politics is nothing but mindless tribalism and tedious partisanship rather than it being an understanding of relations of power which are part of everything and SUPER FUCKING INTERESTING & IMPORTANT.

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