No media polling has emerged in the past week, but there have been a welter of reports at state level on private polling – rather too many, one might think, given the political agendas frequently attached to them.
In Victoria, where Liberals provided the Herald Sun with polling showing Labor copping a hiding in four marginal seats last week, Labor-linked firm Redbridge Group has pushed back showing a far happier set of results for the Andrews government. This includes a state voting intention finding with Labor on 39.1%, the Coalition on 34.5% and the Greens on 7.0%, converting into an estimated 53.5-46.5% lead to Labor on two-party preferred. Pollster Kos Samaras offers a few qualifications: that phone polls tend to under-report both Labor and the Nationals, and that the Greens’ inner-city constituency is “difficult to survey”.
On the state government’s road map for emerging from lockdown, 58.1% agree it was motivated by “the best interests of Victorians” with 31.3% disagreeing. Conversely, only 34.1% thought Scott Morrison and the federal government were playing a constructive role, with 50.6% disagreeing, and just 18.2% thought so in relation to the state Liberals, with 57.0% disagreeing. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 2172.
There has also been a flurry of polling ahead of next month’s state election in Queensland, all of it portending bad things for Labor:
• The Australian reported on polling conducted for coal miner New Hope by Omnipoll, which was co-founded by former Newspoll head Martin O’Shannessy, has the following findings in Queensland, targeting four Labor-held seats outside Brisbane. The overall pattern was of an exodus from right-wing minor parties to the Liberal National Party, and of Labor losing a bigger share of the primary vote than they would probably be able to wear:
Ipswich: Labor 44 (-4), LNP 29 (+16), One Nation 5 (-22), Greens 12 (+3).
Keppel: Labor 34 (-9), LNP 40 (+15), One Nation 10 (-16), Greens 7 (+1).
Mackay: Labor 36 (-7), LNP 37 (+12), One Nation 7 (-16), Greens 6 (+1).
Thuringowa: Labor 33 (+1), LNP 40 (+19), One Nation 4 (-16), Greens 7 (+1), Katter’s Australian Party 7 (-9).
This tends to suggest Labor losing more support than they can wear, while the LNP soaks up a huge share of One Nation and KAP support that it had probably been getting back as preferences anyway. Labor won Ipswich by 10.9% over One Nation in 2017, and wouldn’t be troubled there on these numbers; won Keppel by 3.1% over One Nation, and would likely lose to the LNP; won Mackay by 8.3% over the LNP, and would likely hang on; and won Thuringowa over One Nation by 4.1%, and would likely lose.
• The Greens have been circulating results of three inner urban seats conducted by Lonergan Research, where the LNP’s move to preference them ahead of Labor makes them likely winners wherever they can finish second. In the party’s one existing seat of Maiwar, a strong flow of Labor preferences would likely secure victory for incumbent Michael Berkman, on 36% to LNP candidate Lauren Day’s 37%, with Labor on 17%. The party is reportedly well placed to defeat former Deputy Premier Jackie Trad in South Brisbane, where their candidate Amy McMahon has 36% to Trad’s 30%, with Clem Grehan of the LNP on 21%. They also look in the hung on in McConnel, which was once more appositely known as Brisbane Central, Greens candidate Kirsten Lovejoy is on 30%, Labor incumbent Grace Grace is on 29%, and LNP candidate Pinky Singh is on 31%, with 8% undecided. Notes of caution: The Australian cites Labor analysis that has the party expecting to win a very close race; Kevin Bonham discerns a tendency for the Greens to under-perform their own published seat polling; and even the pollster itself cautions that the Greens are “typically over-represented in polls”, as reported by the Courier-Mail. Each of the polls was conducted “over the past month” by phone and SMS from samples of 600.
• A statewide poll conducted by LNP-aligned think tank the Australian Institute for Progress was trumpeted in the Courier-Mail on Monday as a YouGov poll showing Labor on 32%, the LNP 38% and the Greens on 12%. However, it turns out these were the results of the paper’s own YouGov poll from early June that the pollster used as a weighting base for responses to a series of other questions. The Courier-Mail report no longer claims the poll was conducted by YouGov, but continues to present its numbers as fresh results. The new poll would actually appear to have covered barely more than 300 respondents drawn from the organisation’s own online panel, which is quite a lot smaller than those used by YouGov and Essential Research. For what it’s worth, it finds a 56-44 split in favour of the LNP to form government, plus other findings you can read in the pollster’s own report.
South
One thing is for sure, don’t get involved in Liberal/Green wedges. The Liberals set them up for a reason.
Do you really think that Scott’s announce-able was about anything else?
Player One @ #198 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 11:05 am
See you deny that change is happening.
Probably because it means you will have to acknowledge that your ideas are as silly as they look.
Player One says:
Thursday, September 17, 2020 at 1:04 pm
Non @ #191 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 1:01 pm
Demand for and consumption of coal are declining, as is the price. The value and volume of coal production are shrinking.
https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2020/coal
And another one. 100% dedicated to doing nothing.
This is an outright lie. But who gives a shit about that? I have done far more than you will ever do to curtail the production and use of fossil fuels. You’ve done nothing. You will never do anything.
Furthermore, unlike you, I welcome the decline in coal consumption even though it will impose real economic adjustment costs on the individuals and communities who will be affected by that.
By contrast, you deny the decline in coal production. Implicitly, you’re denying the need to do anything about that…denying the need to define and promote an alternative economic pathway for those who will lose their livelihoods. You are a fraud. The very thing you say you most want to happen is happening and yet you refuse to recognise it.
You should not be taken seriously. Rest assured, I will not.
C@T,
Ok I’m projecting. I’ll leave it at that. There’s nothing wrong with Albo.
But having faith in Newspoll also seems like a bit of magical thinking. Bill shorten had a lot of faith in Newspoll and look where that got him.
Lastly EM was close. Closer than it should have been considering the fires. Labor got lucky.
Fiona Kotvojs got 38.3% first preference against the 35.8 for Kristy McBain. Greens were down and SFF were up.
This in the electorate where places like Cobargo were wiped off the map. And and grabby Morrison was floating about. 50.4 is close! New member or not. It was close and the labor brand wasn’t what it was.
South
” Many of the die-hards will put this down to tactics, but seriously and truthfully ask yourself. Are you happy with the current state of the opposition to Scott Morrison Liberal Party? Because I’m not.”
I think we are being asked to trust the tacticians, who, having failed to defeat a visibly corrupt coalition in their past three attempts, have learnt from those mistakes and are now expert at tactics. 😐
Besides, where else will failed political tacticians get a real job outside of politics? We can’t let them go.
Subtext: I don’t think Shorten or Albo have been the problem.
live with the virus, not let the virus change how we live….the virus has the upper hand though, they have been a round for a couple of billion years….and will see humans out. Know your enemy!
south @ #187 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 1:00 pm
It appears Albo did the deal with Labors fossil fuel cartel members to get the leadership unopposed.
He seemingly must have to follow their script to hold on to the leadership.
Frednk,
It doesn’t have to be a wedge. The government is coming out and saying something about building a power plant with tax payers money.
Where’s the boiling outrage for “pick a winner governing” I didn’t hear any of that.
Labor had the opportunity to create a point of difference and then start leaning into a fight.
The wedges work because labor doesn’t hold the line against them. It’s hoping for issues it likes to come to center stage so it can fight on them.
But i’ve made these points before. Soon i’ll be shouted down by people that know better and can point to a missed decade as an example of their expert grasp of the situation.
New Zealand Economy Shrinks The Most Since Great Depression
General Economy in Auckland As New Zealand Publishes Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update Ahead of GDP Figures
New Zealand suffered its worst economic slump since the Great Depression in the second quarter as a strict nationwide lockdown to combat the coronavirus brought the country to a standstill.
Gross domestic product plunged 12.2% from the first quarter, Statistics New Zealand said Thursday in Wellington. That’s the biggest three-month contraction since quarterly records began in 1977. Economists forecast a 12.5% decline. From a year earlier, the economy shrank 12.4%, the most recorded in comparable official data dating back to 1955.
New Zealand is going through a sharper but shorter economic shock than it experienced during the depression, when GDP fell 5.3% in 1931 and a further 7.1% in 1932, according to academic research.
However, the real pain may still lie ahead. The border remains closed to foreigners, crippling the tourism industry, and the end of the government’s wage subsidy is expected to see unemployment rise.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-16/new-zealand-economy-contracts-the-most-since-great-depression?srnd=premium-asia
Socrates
And heaven help you if you dare suggest those ‘tacticians’ are/were wRONg 😆
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #201 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 1:11 pm
As I said before – I am not the denier here.
And your ideas will look a whole lot sillier if we are still burning coal in a decade or two.
frednk @ #200 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 1:08 pm
The CFMEU and AWU fossil fuel boosters are essentially forcing the Green wedge onto Labor.
These boosters are killing Labor.
Non @ #202 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 1:12 pm
Oh, another LOL. It is me that is in favor of doing nothing, not you! How could I have gotten that so backward?
You, Barney and Fred. 100% transparent.
All Albo should say about the Gas announcement is to simply ask “Is there any money for renewable energy in the PMs plan?”
Forget the rest of the details. That one line alone avoids any wedge, it makes the ALP look like they will consider all options and it makes the PMs announcement look ideological and stupid.
poroti
“And heaven help you if you dare suggest those ‘tacticians’ are/were wRONg ”
I wouldn’t dare suggest that. It has really been smooth sailing from Labor ever since the factional “brains trust” engineered the orderly handover of power from Rudd to Gillard. Trump-like genius.
Player one
I don’t know how amenable to evidence your faith in gas is, but you might care to read the following.
https://theconversation.com/time-to-get-real-amid-the-hydrogen-hype-lets-talk-about-what-will-actually-work-144579
Good afternoon all.
It is a huge drop.
A mate in engineering and residential construction says work pretty much completely stopped but is well and truly underway now – busier than ever.
NZ has a Living Standards Framework that measures the Wellness of kiwis. An interesting way of combining economics and other factors like the social impact of lots of people dying from a pandemic.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/300108756/heres-why-gdp-data-wont-tell-us-the-full-economic-story
IEEFA report: Australia’s key export market – Japan, moving beyond thermal coal
Approving new thermal coal mines will add more production into an oversupplied market
10 July 2019 (IEEFA Australia) – Australia will struggle to seek alternative markets for its thermal coal as a declining Japanese market increasingly turns towards cheaper renewable energy solutions, a new IEEFA report out today has found.
The report, Japanese Thermal Coal Consumption Approaching Long Term Decline: Australia’s Biggest Export Destination to Transition Away from Coal, examines the momentum away from thermal coal in Australia’s key export market.
Japanese coal plants under construction will be offset by closures of old plants in the medium term and Japan’s coal-fired power capacity will go into irreversible decline.
Under pressure from ever cheaper renewable energy and reducing Japanese electricity demand, utilisation of Japanese coal plants is also forecast to contract, reducing thermal coal imports even further.
The trajectory of NSW thermal coal exports to Japan is down – not up.
Author of the report, IEEFA research analyst Simon Nicholas says while Australia’s biggest export market – Japan – represented a significant 45% of all NSW thermal coal exports in 2018, the road ahead is forking.
“NSW thermal coal exports to Japan peaked back in 2015, and the trajectory is down – not up,” says Nicholas.
Coal is finished. Not surprisingly, the workers of the Hunter are concerned about that. Morrison has pitched a gas fired power plant in NSW’s coal capital – tacitly accepting that coal is a goner. The decline in the industry is a serious problem. It’s a very great pity for the people involved that the LNP do not take it seriously. Gas is not a solution. It’s a decoy.
Player….you are a denialist. Get used to it. No one can take you seriously. The sun is setting on coal, whether you like it or not.
https://ieefa.org/australias-key-export-market-japan-moving-beyond-thermal-coal/
Link for the coal market comments
Will a time come when Labor will save itself by unshackling themselves from the CFMEU/AWU fossil fuel boosters ..??
Good post, south. I have always been very loyal to the leader and defended them up hill and down dale to my friends who see it as sport to pick the eyes out of Labor leaders.
Maybe Albo is playing The Long Game. When he became leader The Saturday Paper ran a piece on him and said precisely that – Albanese has always played a long game.
I am so frustrated with the free pass Schmo gets for his bulldust. Then again, I have made it a policy not to listen to “the News” as much for my mental health as anything; and maybe Albo is actually saying more and cutting through more than my TV watching suggests.
Albo’s interview on JJJ was not great. He was asked direct questions and he fudged and came across as a bit condescending. I like Albo; and I think the electorate broadly does as well – certainly more than they liked Gillard and Shorten. He has that going for him.
I wish him well, and I think he would make a fine PM. It’s just at the moment he is a bit “Bill Haydenish” for my liking. Having said that, while there is a lot of talent in Labor (Chalmers, Plibbers, Leigh, etc) there isn’t an obvious successor who could grab the nation’s attention like Hawke or Rudd managed to do.
Still, it’s a long time until the next election. Albo hasn’t made too many big blunders as far as I am aware, but the question is, will Labor be able to do enough to seize Government? A PV in the mid thirties suggests it will be difficult. And as much as I detest him, Schmo is the Libs best politician since Howard.
“Will a time come when Labor will save itself by unshackling themselves from the CFMEU/AWU fossil fuel boosters ..??”
There will be no need when these unions represent a majority of workers in renewable energy jobs.
Bushfire
If you’re about that flat earth youtube is an amazing thing to view. A lot of information & terrifying. Thank you for posting it up. 🙂
Socrates @ #214 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 1:29 pm
I wonder whether Labor tacticians have already thrown in the towel on the next election. It would explain a few things. And given how much money the fossil fuel companies are prepared to throw around … well, it just makes you wonder a bit, doesn’t it? Being paid to lose is not unheard of, even in the most elite sporting competitions 🙁
south says:
Thursday, September 17, 2020 at 1:19 pm
Frednk,
It doesn’t have to be a wedge. The government is coming out and saying something about building a power plant with tax payers money.
On this point we agree 100%. We now have the situation where basically the Liberals are about raiding treasury for their mates and be dam with the consequences for the rest of the country.
But we had that with carbon pricing. Labor legislated a market response, the Liberals implemented a slush fund for their mates.
That is the basic reality.
Instead of dealing with that reality Labor has been dealing with the nonsense over a coal mine that will never get built. A total and complete distraction from reality. Conducted by the Liberals with the a greens acting as the full instrumental section.
But! But! Fiona Kotvojs ALMOST won in Eden-Monaro! Sheesh! The pretzel logic of some defies belief.
Oh, and the local mayor who DID campaign on the bushfires WON.
Coal is shrinking….and with it, so does the platform of the faux-left and their comrades on the Right. No coal/no political jingle. In the same way, when Abbott “stopped the boats” he stopped the Greens too. The agit-prop outfits need to nourish a sense of grievance, which will afford them something on which they can campaign. No grievance/no campaign. No campaign/no votes. So they kindle and fan grievance. This is also the art of Trump and of Murdoch, of Hanson, of the Brexiters and Nativists everywhere.
There are nativist grievance-pushers among the bludgers. They are frauds. FF, Rex, P1….fabricators of grievance and resentments for their own political purposes.
Socrates @ #215 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 1:31 pm
I keep an eye on hydrogen developments, but in truth I am not a fan. Hydrogen is tricky stuff – given how abundant the stuff is, there is a good reason we don’t already have a hydrogen industry, and it is largely due to the problems inherent in the physics and chemistry of managing hydrogen.
I also disbelieve in Australia becoming some kind of “hydrogen superpower”. That makes about as much sense as us trying to become the “battery of Asia”.
However, I would agree that 30 years is not unreasonable for the development of the technology necessary to make hydrogen (say) a useful replacement for fossil fuels in aviation or transport.
Sadly, we don’t have 30 years … not unless we eliminate coal a lot sooner than we currently plan to.
Lynchpin,
I’d back Terri Butler as someone who could get things happening.
Smart, A woman, comes from QLD. There’s a lot of potential there.
C@t,
reread my post. you’ve proved my point. It was close. If the Nats had been able to flip SFF votes it may have gone another way. But alas, there’s nothing wrong with anything. I look forward to our 4c future.
Non @ #218 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 1:34 pm
Yes, that’s right. It’s me that’s the denier here, not those fervently in favor of further delay and inaction 🙁
Lynchpin @ #221 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 1:37 pm
Actually, not so. The next election is only a year away, the Coalition is already in election mode, and Labor looks rudderless(!), weak, indecisive and unelectable.
south @ #230 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 1:52 pm
Ged is far more capable than Terri Butler.
I recall Terri Butler attacking critics of the Adani mine in the lead up to Shortens catastrophic 2019 election loss.
Everyone seems to agree that coal fired power is in a terminal decline. How long that decline takes is the issue. A well maintained, full depreciated coal power station in good location will make profits for many years to come (with all the CO2 that implies). P1 simply wants to speed up that decline by some method – hopefully renewable (the gas part is only to ensure supply in the interim).
Did Terri criticise that bullshit Adani convoy? If so, more power to her.
It’s unusual for a Tory to put respect for the law above political ends but the Tory Advocate General of Scotland has resigned over the proposed (illegal) UK Internal Market Bill.
Lord Keen has resigned as the government’s Advocate General, telling Boris Johnson he was finding it “increasingly difficult to reconcile” his obligations as a law officer” with the UK Government’s Internal Market Bill.
…………..
The SNP’s Justice and Home Affairs spokesperson, Joanna Cherry said she was pleased Keen had “finally decided to do the right thing and offer his resignation.”
“No Scottish law officer could possibly reconcile the lack of regard Boris Johnson and his government has for the rule of law with his or her obligation as an officer of the Scottish Courts,” she added.
She said the UK government would “find it hard to find any member of the Scottish Bar to replace Lord Keen as Advocate General as long as it is intent on breaking international law.”
https://www.thenational.scot/news/18726046.lord-keen-resigns-advocate-general-internal-market-bill-concerns/
Meh,
Either, I’d personally favor the younger Terri Butler if only because it’d trigger a lot of Libs into easy traps. And there’s that whole working mum angle.
And she’s form QLD. Which seems to be important to a large swath of voters.
But I’d back anyone. Who’s willing to fight and I see her yelling a lot in QT which is nice.
Kakuru @ #236 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 2:06 pm
That’s what the fossil fuel cartel said.
#WeatheronPB. Sunny and 31° in Sydney. Winter has left the building.
Zwaktyld
Coal fired power stations have a limited life. The last one got built in Australia about 20 years ago, If no new ones get built there will be none left in Australia in about 30 Year ( 2050 anyone).
The problem now is not closing more faster, the problem is keeping things running while the stations retire. It is a big engineering challenge and a lot of money has to be invested. The Liberals and the Greens wanking on about irreverent issues does not help anything, it needs to stop. If wanking fails to meet it’s goals ( wedging Labor) then perhaps they will get back to the real game.
south @ #238 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 2:08 pm
Terri Butler tends to mumble in QT rather than yell.
Zwaktyld @ #235 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 2:03 pm
Too sane and logical, Zwaktyld.
In a PollBludger flame war, to get noticed you have to shout louder. Call your opponents Green Climate Change Deniers and/or Liberal Stooges. Then loudly announce how anyone who doesn’t see things your way must be a useless know-nothing troll and that you don’t read their posts anyway since you have already blocked them! 🙂
Terri is a low talker…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKWYg9qFOpA
frednk @ #241 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 2:10 pm
But that is exactly the problem. We don’t have 30 years to turn this ship around. We can already see the bloody iceberg! 🙁
We’ve taken the doona off the bed so no more hiding under it. Usually that’s a precursor to a cold snap.
South
I read somewhere that the Liberal candidate was from Cobargo which could explain the result.
Mexicanbeemer
it’s moot really. I’m happy labor won. I just thing the brand is taking a hit from being slow to get onto the right side of history.
Usually the labor party is right there at the forefront. It’s got some big wins on the board and more and more it’s becoming the party of little ideas and small differences.
It’s a leadership issue.
Zwaktyld and P1
I note you both ignored my other point, at the current rate of closure we have an engineering problem that requires a large investment.
We are very fortunate that the industry have some smart people trying to deal with the issues. There is no help coming from the Liberals they are wanking on about Coal and now GAS.
The Greens could be relevant if they stated talking about the need to invest in the infrastructure needed to support a grid based on renewable generation, instead we have the Greens terrorizing Queensland and opposing new transmission lines.
When it comes to the Greens and the Liberals there is not one with the smarts to start thinking about the real issues. Labor has to work within the ill informed din.