No media polling has emerged in the past week, but there have been a welter of reports at state level on private polling – rather too many, one might think, given the political agendas frequently attached to them.
In Victoria, where Liberals provided the Herald Sun with polling showing Labor copping a hiding in four marginal seats last week, Labor-linked firm Redbridge Group has pushed back showing a far happier set of results for the Andrews government. This includes a state voting intention finding with Labor on 39.1%, the Coalition on 34.5% and the Greens on 7.0%, converting into an estimated 53.5-46.5% lead to Labor on two-party preferred. Pollster Kos Samaras offers a few qualifications: that phone polls tend to under-report both Labor and the Nationals, and that the Greens’ inner-city constituency is “difficult to survey”.
On the state government’s road map for emerging from lockdown, 58.1% agree it was motivated by “the best interests of Victorians” with 31.3% disagreeing. Conversely, only 34.1% thought Scott Morrison and the federal government were playing a constructive role, with 50.6% disagreeing, and just 18.2% thought so in relation to the state Liberals, with 57.0% disagreeing. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 2172.
There has also been a flurry of polling ahead of next month’s state election in Queensland, all of it portending bad things for Labor:
• The Australian reported on polling conducted for coal miner New Hope by Omnipoll, which was co-founded by former Newspoll head Martin O’Shannessy, has the following findings in Queensland, targeting four Labor-held seats outside Brisbane. The overall pattern was of an exodus from right-wing minor parties to the Liberal National Party, and of Labor losing a bigger share of the primary vote than they would probably be able to wear:
Ipswich: Labor 44 (-4), LNP 29 (+16), One Nation 5 (-22), Greens 12 (+3).
Keppel: Labor 34 (-9), LNP 40 (+15), One Nation 10 (-16), Greens 7 (+1).
Mackay: Labor 36 (-7), LNP 37 (+12), One Nation 7 (-16), Greens 6 (+1).
Thuringowa: Labor 33 (+1), LNP 40 (+19), One Nation 4 (-16), Greens 7 (+1), Katter’s Australian Party 7 (-9).
This tends to suggest Labor losing more support than they can wear, while the LNP soaks up a huge share of One Nation and KAP support that it had probably been getting back as preferences anyway. Labor won Ipswich by 10.9% over One Nation in 2017, and wouldn’t be troubled there on these numbers; won Keppel by 3.1% over One Nation, and would likely lose to the LNP; won Mackay by 8.3% over the LNP, and would likely hang on; and won Thuringowa over One Nation by 4.1%, and would likely lose.
• The Greens have been circulating results of three inner urban seats conducted by Lonergan Research, where the LNP’s move to preference them ahead of Labor makes them likely winners wherever they can finish second. In the party’s one existing seat of Maiwar, a strong flow of Labor preferences would likely secure victory for incumbent Michael Berkman, on 36% to LNP candidate Lauren Day’s 37%, with Labor on 17%. The party is reportedly well placed to defeat former Deputy Premier Jackie Trad in South Brisbane, where their candidate Amy McMahon has 36% to Trad’s 30%, with Clem Grehan of the LNP on 21%. They also look in the hung on in McConnel, which was once more appositely known as Brisbane Central, Greens candidate Kirsten Lovejoy is on 30%, Labor incumbent Grace Grace is on 29%, and LNP candidate Pinky Singh is on 31%, with 8% undecided. Notes of caution: The Australian cites Labor analysis that has the party expecting to win a very close race; Kevin Bonham discerns a tendency for the Greens to under-perform their own published seat polling; and even the pollster itself cautions that the Greens are “typically over-represented in polls”, as reported by the Courier-Mail. Each of the polls was conducted “over the past month” by phone and SMS from samples of 600.
• A statewide poll conducted by LNP-aligned think tank the Australian Institute for Progress was trumpeted in the Courier-Mail on Monday as a YouGov poll showing Labor on 32%, the LNP 38% and the Greens on 12%. However, it turns out these were the results of the paper’s own YouGov poll from early June that the pollster used as a weighting base for responses to a series of other questions. The Courier-Mail report no longer claims the poll was conducted by YouGov, but continues to present its numbers as fresh results. The new poll would actually appear to have covered barely more than 300 respondents drawn from the organisation’s own online panel, which is quite a lot smaller than those used by YouGov and Essential Research. For what it’s worth, it finds a 56-44 split in favour of the LNP to form government, plus other findings you can read in the pollster’s own report.
ar
“And just 5 more days until their summer ends. Winter is coming.”
I wouldn’t worry too much. The virus will go away thanks to ‘herd mentality’. 😛
Nope. Coal is the biggest culprit. By a long way.
Really? – https://www.statista.com/statistics/801881/global-total-energy-supply-by-source/
A 43-year-old Nerang man has been charged with using a carriage service to make death threats to the Premier Palaszczuk and CHO Young.
Player One @ #149 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 10:03 am
Wrong question, as I said there is no magic switch.
Coal plants have released information regarding their viability and in all the cases I’ve seen that has resulted in a reduction to their expected lifespan and that’s without any federal policy pressure.
As I don’t watch commercial TV, is this for real?
“ Just watched 7 morning news story about changed citizenship test questions. Since when was the bible involved in citizenship ceremony??? ”
PuffyTMD says:
Thursday, September 17, 2020 at 11:40 am
Non @ #16 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 6:32 am
One of the stakeholder groups in WA that were in favour of fracking were aboriginal landholders in the Kimberley. Fracking has been banned in WA by the McGowan government despite the possible economic advantages fracking would offer remote communities. This had been a very significant factor in the thinking of some of the unions here, who have a very long-standing commitment to support the economic, cultural, social and political defence of first peoples in this State and elsewhere.
If the decisions are being made from a basis of poverty and neglect, imposed by us whitey’s, when Big Mining has the money, resources, and power, and the locals have nothing, how much can local support be called ‘choice’?
The decision to ban fracking in WA was made on environmental grounds. Some businesses with interests in gas were opposed to the decision. But WA Labor, after discussions across the whole party, called on the Government to ban fracking and they did. This is an excellent policy. Needless to say neither the Greens nor the Liberals have expressed support for it. But it’s locked for as long as there is a Labor Government here.
This decision was not taken without soul-searching among some unions, who have been involved in the struggle for self-determination for aboriginal peoples, especially in the north, for longer than you or I have been alive. Their support for aboriginal rights was formative in my own political development many years ago. The connection between aboriginal peoples in the north, the union movement and political Labor is strong, reflected in the continuous representation of the Kimberley by aboriginal persons for many years now, certainly since at least 1980. This has been extended by Labor in the Senate as well, where Broome man, Pat Dodson, sits as a WA representative.
Bearing all this in mind, anyone who suggests that WA Labor is not serious about advancing environmental policy is plainly wrong. This is settled across the whole party, both within the caucus and without.
Environmental politics is difficult. It intersects with nearly everything else. We have a very long way to go, for sure, but we have made some advances here.
Labor appear to have learned from Adani….and the lesson is don’t try to catch Green Herring. The Liberals are pretending to run with gas. But it’s a shit idea. Businesses will not buy into it because gas is no longer competitive as an energy source in this economy. So the Liberals will not pursue gas and they will not pursue coal either. The genie of renewables is well and truly out of the economic bottle. Capital will go into renewables.
Jobkeeper doing its job.
Taylormade @ #157 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 10:25 am
Not for much longer if that is the reason.
Dandy Murray @ #151 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 12:05 pm
Yes, really.
https://whatsyourimpact.org/greenhouse-gases/carbon-dioxide-emissions
Coal is not only the biggest single source of GHG emissions, it is also the easiest to replace with alternatives. The replacement of coal with alternatives – not just renewables, but also gas and nuclear – is in fact the main reason for recent reductions in GHG emissions in the electricity sector worldwide.
https://www.iea.org/articles/global-co2-emissions-in-2019
But even so, our global emissions continue to rise.
Replacing coal with alternatives – any alternatives – has been demonstrated to be the best possible thing thing we can currently do.
Which is why I find it hard to fathom why anyone – outside the fossil fuel industry – would oppose it.
Man charged over death threats to Premier and Chief Health Officer. Hope all the rabble rousers are proud of themselves this afternoon
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/man-charged-over-death-threats-to-premier-and-chief-health-officer-20200917-p55wja.html?utm_content=STORY&list_name=10094_bt_breakingnews&promote_channel=edmail&utm_campaign=breaking-news-bt&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=2020-09-17&mbnr=MjcxNjk2NA&instance=2020-09-17-12-13-AEST&jobid=29261854
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #153 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 12:09 pm
Sure. Anything to avoid actually taking any action. Right?
From one current ABC colleague to another former ABC colleague.
Hear hear Virginia
Virginia Trioli
@LaTrioli
The disease has also revealed long term, chronic health problems in otherwise healthy, young patients, with more yet to be revealed – all of which is a massive, long-term drain on the economy and the workforce. Model that, Chris.
Quote Tweet
The Sydney Morning Herald
@smh
· Sep 16
This disease has revealed the character of our leaders and hammered home some uncomfortable truths about us as a people, writes Chris Uhlmann https://smh.com.au/national/covid-19-has-hammered-home-some-uncomfortable-truths-about-us-as-a-people-20200915-p55vrb.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1600204247
Player One @ #161 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 10:28 am
What is the impact of new renewables on emissions compared to the equivalent in new gas plants.
What are the odds Labor waves through SfM’s fossil fuel agenda ..?
It is incongruous that in Perth and down the South-West last week on an excursion, there are frequent signs in retail outlets advertising for staff………………I think this can be attributed in part to the fact that the Feds are supporting a whole host of people under JobKeeper/Seeker whatever and some people prefer to take the money rather than the job………no surprise I guess. Now, hark back to the Rudd era when the Liberals went ballistic when a lousy $500 was handed out to many………………From Labor and the hypocrite Libs —–crickets….
Player One says:
Thursday, September 17, 2020 at 11:56 am
frednk @ #142 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 11:49 am
Sorry I should not have said, no-one cares for the Liberals Gas announcable. P1 is in their fighting for it.
You just make yourself look silly when you say thing like this. People would be quite justified in assuming you really don’t understand the issues involved.
I have no doubt you believe your reasons to support GAS are terrible terrible sophisticated.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #163 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 12:34 pm
What is the impact of not replacing coal with less polluting alternatives?
Oh, so this was what the wombat cuddling was all about. A little self-promotion.
frednk @ #166 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 12:36 pm
And I have no doubt you think the same about supporting COAL.
Since when was the bible involved in citizenship ceremony?
Like foreva
You are required to take a pledge of loyalty that can be in the form of an oath or affirmation. If you are of that inclination you can make an oath on the bible or the Koran. There is apparently case law that an oath to Apollo is valid provided you also blow out a candle. Head covering is allowed for those whose religion requires it
https://www.hawkesbury.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0014/120641/ORD_NOV2_2018_Att2toItem292.pdf
PuffyTMD @ #139 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 11:46 am
Ask south, mundo, LvT, P1, Firefox, Quoll, poroti, Rex Douglas, …
Tricot @ #165 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 12:34 pm
I would think that people on jobkeeper would want to keep themselves ready to go back to their old job at any time, given you never know when government policy/support is likely to change. Taking another job (especially an inferior one) would not seem a particularly good idea. Any way, isn’t that supposed to be the way Jobkeeper operates?
The PM is pushing “live with the virus, not let the virus change how we live”.
It’s a dog-whistle version of “let it rip”.
Player One @ #167 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 10:40 am
Well that’s what renewables are doing, despite your denials.
So far renewables have seen fossil fuel plants close while no new plants have replaced them.
https://immi.homeaffairs.gov.au/citizenship-subsite/files/australian-citizenship-ceremonies-code.pdf
Rex Douglas says:
Thursday, September 17, 2020 at 12:34 pm
What are the odds Labor waves through SfM’s fossil fuel agenda ..?
A better question would be: What are the odds of the Liberals actually having an energy policy to wave through.
That is the trouble with this Liberal/Green wedge, it’s base on an announceable. They are only good for a few days. Try as they might the Greens will only be able to keep it afloat for a few days. Scott will take the money and announce something else.
C@tmomma @ #171 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 12:43 pm
Speaking only for myself, I’d be perfectly content if Labor actually had one.
lizzie @ #173 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 10:44 am
Hasn’t living with the virus caused us to change the way we live? 🙂
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #174 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 12:44 pm
I am not the one in denial here.
Player One @ #179 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 10:48 am
So no comment on the fact that we are not building new fossil fuel plants when old ones close. 😆 😆
frednk @ #176 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 12:45 pm
Well, going by recent history, I’d say slightly better than the odds of Labor having one.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #180 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 12:49 pm
Why do you continually oppose any actual action to close coal plants?
Barney
Scotty’s dying for us to snap back to the way things were.
lizzie @ #183 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 12:54 pm
If that were the price, I for one would be glad for him to pay it 🙂
Player One says:
Thursday, September 17, 2020 at 12:42 pm
frednk @ #166 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 12:36 pm
I have no doubt you believe reasons for support GAS are terrible terrible sophisticated.
And I have no doubt you think the same about supporting COAL.
How sad, renewable are cheaper, the government is now pretending the are going to subsidize gas to stop the progress towards that energy source and you mentioned coal. Even the government has realized that little wedge is finished, too obvious to the dimmest that coal is finished.
P1
I know I shouldn’t smirk, but I couldn’t help it. 🙂
C@t,
I want labor to form government at the next election. My criticism of Albo is due to the fact that I think his action and lack of action present a real threat to that happening.
Think about when Bill Shorten and Albo were going for the leadership after 2013. We got Bill an he built the team up. For the longest time people dreamt of Albo and always talked about Albo being a missed opportunity.
Now we have him and he doesn’t seem to be really engaging. I’m not sure if he’s missed the moment or the moment has missed him. But something is off. And I suspect everyone is feeling the same way.
Many of the die-hards will put this down to tactics, but seriously and truthfully ask yourself. Are you happy with the current state of the opposition to Scott Morrison Liberal Party? Because I’m not.
I found this story that Newscorp is donating free ad space to Qantas to push their open borders demands extraordinary in the current financial climate, given that conventional media ad revenue is in decline and Newscorp is cutting staff.
Obvious question: where is the quid pro quo? Or is Rupert ordering it from above, in one last pro-Liberal push.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/sep/17/qantas-pushes-for-open-borders-with-full-page-ads-in-australian-newspapers
frednk @ #185 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 12:57 pm
Yet another person 100% dedicated to doing absolutely nothing.
This should be Scotty from Marketing’s new theme song as he appears to have given up on the living being able to keep living and healthy. Because. Economy.
https://youtu.be/784k3EEuZYA
Demand for and consumption of coal are declining, as is the price. The value and volume of coal production are shrinking.
https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2020/coal
Excellent post, south.
Player One @ #182 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 10:53 am
I’m not opposing action, I’m highlighting that action is happening despite a lack of Government policy to help drive it further and faster.
I certainly oppose the idea that gas any place in the mix beyond maybe a back up quick response peaker function.
Non @ #191 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 1:01 pm
And another one. 100% dedicated to doing nothing.
And I suspect everyone is feeling the same way.
Projection. You WANT everyone to feel the same way as you, so you ascribe your feelings to ‘everyone’.
Are you happy with the current state of the opposition to Scott Morrison Liberal Party?
Newspoll 50-50 works for me. Plus a win in Eden-Monaro and a win in the Northern Territory.
Because I’m not.
You don’t say. (For the millionth time)
lizzie @ #173 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 12:44 pm
He could OK International travel by Aussies by just signing a document – but hasn’t and not likely to anytime soon.
As usual, all BS by morrison.
south says:
Thursday, September 17, 2020 at 1:00 pm
I want labor to form government at the next election.
You could have fooled me into thinking you’re a Green Parrot who will chirp little tunes that will help keep the LNP in power.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #193 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 1:03 pm
Oh, very good. You are 100% in favor of faster inaction.
Non @ #197 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 1:05 pm
You seem to believe everyone who is critical of Labor must be a Green.
You need to get out more.