More affairs of state

More evidence of a tight contest looming in Queensland while Mark McGowan reigns supreme in Western Australia; and a parliamentary committee in Victoria kicks the upper house electoral reform can down the road.

Not every state this time, but half:

Victoria

The Victorian parliament’s electoral matters committee has tabled the report of its inquiry into the 2018 state election, of which the greatest item of interest is a full chapter devoted to reform of the upper house electoral system. Together with Western Australia, Victoria is the last hold-out of the group voting ticket system that is electing ever-increasing numbers of preference-harvesting micro-party candidates. This reached a new height at the 2018 election, at which parties other than the Coalition, Labor and the Greens won 10 out of the 40 seats in the Legislative Council, including two elected with less than 1% of the vote. However, the report recommended only that a further parliamentary inquiry be held into the matter. The report also recommends no change to the two-week period for pre-polling, which the Liberals and Nationals called to be shortened.

Queensland

Polling of the marginal state seats of Currumbin, Mansfield and Aspley by YouGov for the Australian Conservation Foundation shows a combined two-party result of 52-48 for Labor, compared with an almost exact 50-50 for these three seats in 2017. The primary votes are Labor 37%, LNP 37%, Greens 10%, One Nation 4% and 10% don’t know, compared with 2017 election results of Labor 41.2%, LNP 38.4%, Greens 10.6% and One Nation 8.5%. The poll was conducted from August 17-19 and targeted 200 respondents in each of the three electorates.

Western Australia

A poll for The West Australian by Painted Dog Research showed Mark McGowan with an approval rating at 91%, up four from an already stratospheric result in June. Support for the state’s border closure was at 92%, up from 89% in May. The poll was conducted from a sample of 837, with field work dates not provided.

Northern Territory

As related in the dedicated post, the CLP sneaked home in an eighth seat in the Northern Territory election as the count concluded last night, producing a final result of Labor 14, CLP eight, Territory Alliance one and independents two.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,560 comments on “More affairs of state”

  1. My feel is Andrews will personally absorb all the emotional and irrational angst …then depart and provide clean air for the new leader/Premier in the lead up to 2022 election.

  2. https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/09/05/more-affairs-of-state/comment-page-25/#comment-3476919

    Provided that the rest of the lockdown goes well and there are no major scandals in the second half of the term, I think that the ALP is very likely to be re-elected in 2022 (the redistribution due to start in late November is likely to help a little there, creating seats in the western suburbs and abolishing them in the east, due to population growth). O`Brien does not seem to have the surprise election win type media presence.

    The Liberals are hampered by the fact that one of their better talents (John Pesutto) was narrowly defeated in 2018. If he gets preselection (he beat John Roskam, of IPA fame, for preselection for the 2014 election, who might want it again (I have no inside knowledge on this)) and wins, he could well become leader and be a threat to the ALP in 2026 (who will have been in 12 years at that point, the longest any government has been in office in Victoria since 1982, potentially with the ALP in power at Commonwealth level).

  3. Rex,
    I think Andrews will probably get 10 terms back to back after this.
    Remember 70% of the media is owned by 1 outfit and the other 30% is owned by another.
    Two small groups of well to do wankers do not accurately reflect reality.
    People see Scotty from Marketing. And people See Dan Andrews trying to save lives.

  4. The Victorian department of health and human services says the current 14-day average daily case number in Melbourne is 84.8, and regional Victoria is 5.3.
    -________
    Comparing these two denominators means NOTHING!

  5. The next campaign at both state an federal level writes itself “who do you trust to have you back’.
    It will not be won as the drone would have it; by Albo being a smart ass.

  6. Take away from CH 7 afternoon news;
    Scrooter not happy with Dan.
    Dan could do better.
    Victoria making everything worse for everyone.

    Situation normal.

  7. south @ #1243 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 4:03 pm

    Rex,
    I think Andrews will probably get 10 terms back to back after this.
    Remember 70% of the media is owned by 1 outfit and the other 30% is owned by another.
    Two small groups of well to do wankers do not accurately reflect reality.
    People see Scotty from Marketing. And people See Dan Andrews trying to save lives.

    No-one should underestimate the damage done to peoples livelihoods right across the spectrum in Vic.

    Insecurity leads to emotional decision making – and the modern day cancel culture is strong.

    Labor MAY survive for two reasons…

    1. Andrews sacrifices himself to the cancel culture.
    2. Vic Libs are pathetic.

  8. frednk @ #1255 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 4:09 pm

    The next campaign at both state an federal level writes itself “who do you trust to have you back’.
    It will not be won as the drone would have it; by Albo being a smart ass.

    Albo doesn’t have to be a smartarse, Freedunk.
    Just visible, present, vocal, strong, articulate, constant, imaginative, intelligent, insightful, courageous, colourful, intense and driven.
    Not a big ask for the leader of Australia’s oldest political party.

  9. Tom the first and best @ #1253 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 4:03 pm

    https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/09/05/more-affairs-of-state/comment-page-25/#comment-3476919

    Provided that the rest of the lockdown goes well and there are no major scandals in the second half of the term, I think that the ALP is very likely to be re-elected in 2022 (the redistribution due to start in late November is likely to help a little there, creating seats in the western suburbs and abolishing them in the east, due to population growth). O`Brien does not seem to have the surprise election win type media presence.

    The Liberals are hampered by the fact that one of their better talents (John Pesutto) was narrowly defeated in 2018. If he gets preselection (he beat John Roskam, of IPA fame, for preselection for the 2014 election, who might want it again (I have no inside knowledge on this)) and wins, he could well become leader and be a threat to the ALP in 2026 (who will have been in 12 years at that point, the longest any government has been in office in Victoria since 1982, potentially with the ALP in power at Commonwealth level).

    The Vic Libs have no brains.

    If they did, they’d manage DimTim out of Kew and up to Canberra and parachute Pesutto into Kew and leadership for the 2022 election.

  10. frednk @ #1255 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 4:09 pm

    The next campaign at both state an federal level writes itself “who do you trust to have you back’.
    It will not be won as the drone would have it; by Albo being a smart ass.

    You mean like Howard’s ‘Who do you trust’ campaign?
    Tell me, how did that go for the lying Rodent?
    Oh, I remember, he won.
    Dan is the Victorian Premier.
    Scrooter is’the father of the nation’
    You work it out.

  11. Barney

    It would appear mundo doesn’t want Labor to have a win anywhere, so it doesn’t matter how popular Andrews is or might be, he has to leave so that Labor loses and mundo is able to say that he told us so.

    Then we can look forward to another four years of mundo bemoaning how badly Labor is doing, and wondering why Andrews quit when if he’d stayed, Labor wouldn’t have lost power….

  12. TomTF&B
    Before the lock downs i would have agreed but the ALP cannot just assume they will hold the seats in Melbourne’s north-west because they have been heavily impacted by the lockdowns. The ALP will need to be cautious or they risk being caught out like the Liberals were in 99 when a few seats came from nowhere.

  13. Zoomster,
    Wait for a poll before you say andrews is a loser for the ALP. He’s done a lot of good things. And soon it’ll be bushfire season and he’ll have another crisis to expertly manage.

  14. Why do I get the impression this site has been taken over by *Debbie Downers

    *Debbie Downer is a name for someone who is constantly making others feel bad or dampening the mood of a group with negative comments.

    I well remember when many of British leaders wanted *appeasement with Adolf Hitler – but along came the lion in Winston Churchill

    – Winston Churchill: Now that I’m in charge , Mr. Hitler and his Nazi thugs had better look out. We’re going to teach them a lesson that they’ll never forget.

  15. ‘Wait for a poll before you say andrews is a loser for the ALP.’

    I’m not saying that.

    Not sure how anyone could get that from my post/s.

  16. South
    The next election will be fought on the economy just like 92. It is difficult to see the ALP losing but there was always an expectation there would be a swing against and now the economy will be struggling could add to that.

  17. Assantdj @ #1234 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 3:19 pm

    C@tmomma
    As with all of the Prime Ministers announcements all talk no action.
    Today’s announcement of the vaccine is already being called into question, the only way that timeline will be met is to reduce safety and testing. It’s another announceable to look as if you are in control whilst you sit and twiddle your thumbs.

    He’s been announcing it as if it’s a done deal and the vaccine has been thoroughly tested and approved by the TGA. I know the TGA will rush the approval process, however, there is a standardised approval process which must be followed if we are to have any faith in the vaccine. And that takes a given amount of time no matter how much pressure is being applied.

    I also note that it appears that the Reactionary Conservative Authoritarian governments around the world, whilst having decided to do nothing in particular to save lives, hoping that the virus will just ‘magically disappear’, that they have also decided to hop on board the vaccine bandwagon in order to appeal to the still living who may thus vote for them at their next election, happily (?) vaccinated and feeling protected by the Big Kahuna of their respective country.

    Extremely cynical politics, but that’s how they got where they are today I guess.

  18. I hope the media continue to ramp up the “Morrison has the shits with Andrews “ and “ Morrison attacks Andrews roadmap “ meme.

    It may not do Andrews the damage some are hoping for. In fact it may come back to bite Morrison on the arse.

    We shall see.

  19. https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/09/05/more-affairs-of-state/comment-page-26/#comment-3476976

    I doubt that Tim Smith is the sort of person who considers himself ready to be managed out of state politics (after less than 2 terms) and thus will not resign. The Liberals are unlikely to offer him has local safe seat as the treasurer is his local MP. He may also have too much leadership ambition for the Senate or the Legislative Council.

  20. In both the last Victorian and Queensland elections, Labor basically asked voters to ignore the rubbish in the MSM (especially Murdoch). The voters followed that advice.

    I don’t think bias in the media is the major problem (although it would be nic if it wasn’t present)

    The main problem with the MSM is that they are appallingly bad at their main job which is reporting the facts and drawing conclusions as to what the effects of alternative policies are likely to be.

    In the case of the pandemic, it is pretty clear to anyone with half a brain what the effects of different health policies are likely to be, hence the big support for state premiers. What appears in the media opinions is having even less effect.

  21. doyley @ #1274 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 4:28 pm

    I hope the media continue to ramp up the “Morrison has the shits with Andrews “ and “ Morrison attacks Andrews roadmap “ meme.

    It may not do Andrews the damage some are hoping for. In fact it may come back to bite Morrison on the arse.

    We shall see.

    Andrews is light years ahead of most of the other Labor dopes in ability and leadership.

    In fact, the dopes only thought of him as a mere seat warmer.

    I hope he somehow survives and wins in 2022, for what would be a truly powerful statement from the people.

  22. We don’t have to guess.

    Look at the polling we do have. We know how people react to the Feds attacking Andrews. This was before it was as obvious as now.

    Both Morrison and Andrews lost support.

    As a whole the state premiers did better than the Feds.

    As I said earlier today. I think Morrison is desperate.
    Things only get worse for the LNP. Especially a long term Federal Government.

  23. AJM
    Victorians have been ignoring the media for years with the Liberals only winning 3 state elections since 1982 and leading federal election TPP only once or twice since 1990.

  24. Rex Douglas @ #1258 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 4:14 pm

    Tom the first and best @ #1253 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 4:03 pm

    The Liberals are hampered by the fact that one of their better talents (John Pesutto) was narrowly defeated in 2018. If he gets preselection (he beat John Roskam, of IPA fame, for preselection for the 2014 election, who might want it again (I have no inside knowledge on this)) and wins, he could well become leader and be a threat to the ALP in 2026 (who will have been in 12 years at that point, the longest any government has been in office in Victoria since 1982, potentially with the ALP in power at Commonwealth level).

    The Vic Libs have no brains.

    If they did, they’d manage DimTim out of Kew and up to Canberra and parachute Pesutto into Kew and leadership for the 2022 election.

    Pesutto admitted on ABC radio a couple of weeks ago that he is interested in going back into state politics if a seat was available.

  25. Extraordinary reports that the Westminster Government is going to withdraw from the EU-UK Brexit Agreement, including the Northern Ireland.

    “In reports a Government spokesman appeared to confirm, the Financial Times said Boris Johnson was planning new legislation that would override key parts of the agreement – the treaty that sealed Britain’s exit from the EU in January – in a move that could risk collapsing the UK-EU trade talks.

    The Prime Minister is expected to say on Monday that collapsing the trade talks, should there be no agreement by the October 15 European Council, would still be a “good outcome for the UK”.

    The pre-briefed words from Mr Johnson arrived as the FT reported sections of the Internal Market Bill, due to be published on Wednesday, are expected to “eliminate” the legal force of the Withdrawal Agreement in areas including state aid and Northern Ireland customs.

    Deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill has attacked the predicted moves as a treacherous betrayal.

    As part of the terms of the Northern Ireland Protocol, the region is expected to continue to follow some EU rules after the transition period ends in 2021 to ensure there is no hard border.

    Northern Ireland deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill tweeted that any threat of backtracking on the protocol would be a “treacherous betrayal which would inflict irreversible harm on the all-Ireland economy and the Good Friday Agreement”.

    https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/republic-of-ireland/leaders-react-to-government-treachery-on-brexit-39508587.html

  26. Mexicanbeemer @ #1272 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 4:26 pm

    South
    The next election will be fought on the economy just like 92. It is difficult to see the ALP losing but there was always an expectation there would be a swing against and now the economy will be struggling could add to that.

    the LNP is ideologically incapable of taking the measures that will actually get the economy up and running again. Without a major government spending program and strong support for people unable to find employment, the amount of poverty, homelessness (and as a result crime) will increase. The country could well be a complete basket case.

  27. In positive news for Victoria, I believe the MCG will host the Boxing day Test with social distancing and a crowd restriction to around 20,000.

  28. Tom the first and best @ #1276 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 4:31 pm

    https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/09/05/more-affairs-of-state/comment-page-26/#comment-3476976

    I doubt that Tim Smith is the sort of person who considers himself ready to be managed out of state politics (after less than 2 terms) and thus will not resign. The Liberals are unlikely to offer him has local safe seat as the treasurer is his local MP. He may also have too much leadership ambition for the Senate or the Legislative Council.

    Victorians have little tolerance for loudmouth irrational Libs – and I’d think the new head office might acknowledge that and send him north.

    Then again they might not.

  29. AJM
    Elections are more about the government of the day than the opposition. Kennett didn’t campaign on how he governed and he wasn’t popular yet won easily.

  30. What are the chances that some future Darwin Award winning cretin will keep his pistol, without the safety on, in his face mask holster (firetrucking hell!) so he can “quickly” draw it if needs be. The angle of the weapon will almost guarantee that if he screws it up he will kill himself. Brains are not obligatory.

  31. A key date is 12 November , the reporting date for the Victorian Quarantine inquiry.

    If, at that time, community transmission persists only in Victoria and the inquiry criticises government departments, including Health, which appears likely on the evidence, then the road ahead for the Premier will be less clear.

  32. https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/09/05/more-affairs-of-state/comment-page-26/#comment-3476984

    There are some seats in Melbourne`s north and west the ALP could loose (although that list will less certain until the redistribution):

    Melton (low margin, however likely partly artificial given several factors that lead to it have been resolved by the new MP or will be by the redistribution who will have incumbency, however the small margin will likely mean the Liberals campaign there).

    Sunbury, a suburban marginal with a padded margin from 2018.

    Niddrie, ditto.

    Eltham, ditto.

    Ivanhoe, ditto.

    Werribee (if local GP and 2018 independent candidate (estimated approximately 8% margin for Tim Pallas) runs again).

  33. Ballieu won a (sceptical) Victoria by promising to be Labor with the set of steak knives.

    It had been so long since there’d been a Liberal government that voters gave him the benefit of the doubt.

    Then he turned out to be mini-Kennett, everyone remembered why they hadn’t voted Liberal for the last decade, and booted them out again.

    Can’t see memories fading enough for Victorians to be fooled again.

    And if anything, the more the media turn against Andrews, and the more he distances his party from the Greens, the better Labor polls.

  34. Tom the first and best @ #1293 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 4:46 pm

    https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/09/05/more-affairs-of-state/comment-page-26/#comment-3476984

    There are some seats in Melbourne`s north and west the ALP could loose (although that list will less certain until the redistribution):

    Melton (low margin, however likely partly artificial given several factors that lead to it have been resolved by the new MP or will be by the redistribution who will have incumbency, however the small margin will likely mean the Liberals campaign there).

    Sunbury, a suburban marginal with a padded margin from 2018.

    Niddrie, ditto.

    Eltham, ditto.

    Ivanhoe, ditto.

    Werribee (if local GP and 2018 independent candidate (estimated approximately 8% margin for Tim Pallas) runs again).

    Stand by for Andrews and Pallas announcement on massive infrastructure for those electorates…

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