More affairs of state

More evidence of a tight contest looming in Queensland while Mark McGowan reigns supreme in Western Australia; and a parliamentary committee in Victoria kicks the upper house electoral reform can down the road.

Not every state this time, but half:

Victoria

The Victorian parliament’s electoral matters committee has tabled the report of its inquiry into the 2018 state election, of which the greatest item of interest is a full chapter devoted to reform of the upper house electoral system. Together with Western Australia, Victoria is the last hold-out of the group voting ticket system that is electing ever-increasing numbers of preference-harvesting micro-party candidates. This reached a new height at the 2018 election, at which parties other than the Coalition, Labor and the Greens won 10 out of the 40 seats in the Legislative Council, including two elected with less than 1% of the vote. However, the report recommended only that a further parliamentary inquiry be held into the matter. The report also recommends no change to the two-week period for pre-polling, which the Liberals and Nationals called to be shortened.

Queensland

Polling of the marginal state seats of Currumbin, Mansfield and Aspley by YouGov for the Australian Conservation Foundation shows a combined two-party result of 52-48 for Labor, compared with an almost exact 50-50 for these three seats in 2017. The primary votes are Labor 37%, LNP 37%, Greens 10%, One Nation 4% and 10% don’t know, compared with 2017 election results of Labor 41.2%, LNP 38.4%, Greens 10.6% and One Nation 8.5%. The poll was conducted from August 17-19 and targeted 200 respondents in each of the three electorates.

Western Australia

A poll for The West Australian by Painted Dog Research showed Mark McGowan with an approval rating at 91%, up four from an already stratospheric result in June. Support for the state’s border closure was at 92%, up from 89% in May. The poll was conducted from a sample of 837, with field work dates not provided.

Northern Territory

As related in the dedicated post, the CLP sneaked home in an eighth seat in the Northern Territory election as the count concluded last night, producing a final result of Labor 14, CLP eight, Territory Alliance one and independents two.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,560 comments on “More affairs of state”

  1. Anecdotal, but I doubt either Eltham or Ivanhoe are in play.

    Andrews seems to be very popular in the eastern suburbs.

    By and large, the higher educated professionals have responded well to his handling of the pandemic.

  2. https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/09/05/more-affairs-of-state/comment-page-26/#comment-3477003

    The Liberals can`t legally force him to resign from the Legislative Assembly, so he could hold the seat until 2022 against their wishes as an independent.

    Liberal preselections don`t seem quite as head office centric as ALP preselections.

    If he in a problematic loudmouth in state parliament, he would be a problematic loudmouth in the Commonwealth parliament. Moving him would just be moving the issue.

  3. Stoinis and MMarsh both have enormous potential. I cant figure out what the common link is to explain why the two WA cricketers under Langers tutelage arent living up to it.

  4. Tom the first and best @ #1303 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 4:55 pm

    https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/09/05/more-affairs-of-state/comment-page-26/#comment-3477003

    The Liberals can`t legally force him to resign from the Legislative Assembly, so he could hold the seat until 2022 against their wishes as an independent.

    Liberal preselections don`t seem quite as head office centric as ALP preselections.

    If he in a problematic loudmouth in state parliament, he would be a problematic loudmouth in the Commonwealth parliament. Moving him would just be moving the issue.

    He’d fit right in with the Fed Libs.

  5. Zoomster
    The one thing that might upset that is if there is any ill-feeling towards the new north-east link project but that would be pretty much contained to Ivanhoe and Kew.

  6. comment fund in the guardian that pretty much sums it up.


    Tucky05
    9h ago
    21 22

    “I shall lead and you shall follow”
    Don’t the words sound so hollow
    He has no idea of where to go
    Why not say, “I just don’t know”?

    One step forward, two steps back
    Kick the can down the track
    Procrastinate, blame and deny
    Hope you won’t get caught in a lie

    “A leader must not make mistakes”
    Hell, even God put seeds in grapes!
    This PM won’t help those in need
    Can’t hold a hose. Can’t bloody lead!

  7. Rex Douglas @ #1295 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 4:50 pm

    Tom the first and best @ #1293 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 4:46 pm

    https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/09/05/more-affairs-of-state/comment-page-26/#comment-3476984

    There are some seats in Melbourne`s north and west the ALP could loose (although that list will less certain until the redistribution):

    Melton (low margin, however likely partly artificial given several factors that lead to it have been resolved by the new MP or will be by the redistribution who will have incumbency, however the small margin will likely mean the Liberals campaign there).

    Sunbury, a suburban marginal with a padded margin from 2018.

    Niddrie, ditto.

    Eltham, ditto.

    Ivanhoe, ditto.

    Werribee (if local GP and 2018 independent candidate (estimated approximately 8% margin for Tim Pallas) runs again).

    Stand by for Andrews and Pallas announcement on massive infrastructure for those electorates…

    As a Sunbury resident any infrastructure improvements will be greatly welcomed, and there a list from the last election which is slowly happening.
    The big one will be the promised large hospital at Melton which is in the planning phases and should be being built by the next election

  8. Spray @ #1304 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 4:57 pm

    Simon Katich @ #1303 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 4:55 pm

    Stoinis and MMarsh both have enormous potential. I cant figure out what the common link is to explain why the two WA cricketers under Langers tutelage arent living up to it.

    So does Mitch’s brother. He’s had enormous potential for twenty years now.

    Let’s see how Cameron Green goes. Looks like an absolute superstar in the making.

  9. https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/09/05/more-affairs-of-state/comment-page-26/#comment-3477013

    Infrastructure is not the only thing that state governments need to do to win. The are also responsible for many services as well. One example of this is that the state government`s public transport policy has been heavy on infrastructure but very light on services (there are many off-peak service improvements that could happen without infrastructure increases and the state government has seems very reluctant to do more than the barest minimum of those). The Westgate tunnel spoil issue has potential to hurt the government in Werribee and Melton/Buninyong (I suspect Bacchus Marsh will move from Melton to Buninyong to even up electorate sizes), a risk from its infrastructure justifies anything political theory.

  10. Spray @ #1290 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 4:50 pm

    Spray @ #1290 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 4:46 pm

    Who’s this woman being interviewed on ABC 24? She’s making stuff up.

    Oh. She’s a Melbourne-based Federal Lib MP. Lying about the use of the Covid-Safe app in NSW. And other stuff.

    And Stephen Jones is just sitting there letting her get away with it.

    Over to you Mundo.

    It’s the Labor way.
    No fight.
    No push back.
    No rage.
    No passion.
    No enthusiasm.
    Too timid.

  11. Kronomex @ #1286 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 4:45 pm

    What are the chances that some future Darwin Award winning cretin will keep his pistol, without the safety on, in his face mask holster (firetrucking hell!) so he can “quickly” draw it if needs be. The angle of the weapon will almost guarantee that if he screws it up he will kill himself. Brains are not obligatory.

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    I keep thinking, why is it so far away from his hand? Isn’t that what a gun needs to be near?All these jokers are doing is guaranteeing that one day someone will blow their jaw off or their brains out.

  12. zoomster @ #1301 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 4:54 pm

    Anecdotal, but I doubt either Eltham or Ivanhoe are in play.

    Andrews seems to be very popular in the eastern suburbs.

    By and large, the higher educated professionals have responded well to his handling of the pandemic.

    Labor has held Ivanhoe since 1996. The current incumbent is very popular.Labor holds it by 8.96%

    Eltham has been held by labor since 2002 and is currently on a 6.38% margin Another excellent Member presides.

    Speculators have got to specualte. But, these are pretty safe for labor imho.

  13. Spray @ #1311 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 5:00 pm

    Spray @ #1304 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 4:57 pm

    Simon Katich @ #1303 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 4:55 pm

    Stoinis and MMarsh both have enormous potential. I cant figure out what the common link is to explain why the two WA cricketers under Langers tutelage arent living up to it.

    So does Mitch’s brother. He’s had enormous potential for twenty years now.

    Let’s see how Cameron Green goes. Looks like an absolute superstar in the making.

    Playing on true wickets all the time. If it bounces unusually or turns they are fucked.

  14. Tom the first and best @ #1321 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 5:24 pm

    https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/09/05/more-affairs-of-state/comment-page-27/#comment-3477034

    Eltham nearly fell to the Liberals in the 2010 swing, had it done so they would not have had to rely on Geoff Shaw and would have been an a better position to win in 2014.

    Shoulda, coulda woulda ain’t worth a pinch of shit, comrade.

    10 years on Labor still dominates in Victoria.

  15. C@tmomma @ #1317 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 3:12 pm

    I keep thinking, why is it so far away from his hand? Isn’t that what a gun needs to be near?All these jokers are doing is guaranteeing that one day someone will blow their jaw off or their brains out.

    I’m trying to picture a Wild West style gun shootout between two people using face holsters.

    Given the angle that they’d have raise their hands to to draw their guns it’s more likely that after a couple of hours they’d still be trying to wrestle the guns out. It’d make for a very dull western movie. πŸ˜†

    Oh, and as far as blowing either their brains out or their jaws off, I’d put money on the jaw option. At least they have a jaw.

  16. Simon Katich @ #1324 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 5:33 pm

    Playing on true wickets all the time. If it bounces unusually or turns they are fucked.

    Chris Rogers and Mr Cricket played in WA.

    Rogers career took off when he played for Victoria.

    Mr Cricket was a special player that plied his skills all over the world before being ready for selection at age 30. He overame his WACA disability to be a great player for Australia.

  17. So Dr Katie Allan tells Karvelas that info from USA tells us that hairdressers have covid safe plans. Yep don’t listen to Vic CHO but do listen to US hairdressers

  18. Greensborough Growler @ #1327 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 5:38 pm

    Simon Katich @ #1324 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 5:33 pm

    Playing on true wickets all the time. If it bounces unusually or turns they are fucked.

    Chris Rogers and Mr Cricket played in WA.

    Rogers career took off when he played for Victoria.

    Mr Cricket was a special player that plied his skills all over the world before being ready for selection at age 30. He overame his WACA disability to be a great player for Australia.

    That’s rubbish about Rogers. He was a run machine around the world long before he went to Victoria.

  19. Spray @ #1330 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 5:41 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1327 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 5:38 pm

    Simon Katich @ #1324 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 5:33 pm

    Playing on true wickets all the time. If it bounces unusually or turns they are fucked.

    Chris Rogers and Mr Cricket played in WA.

    Rogers career took off when he played for Victoria.

    Mr Cricket was a special player that plied his skills all over the world before being ready for selection at age 30. He overame his WACA disability to be a great player for Australia.

    That’s rubbish about Rogers. He was a run machine around the world long before he went to Victoria.

    I was talking specificbly about Test Cricket. But, the point about playing outside WA to prepare himself for International duties is valid.


  20. Frankston hospital – 19 cases.
    Vawdrey Australia truck manufacturer – 14 cases.
    Bulla Dairy Foods in Colac –16 active cases.
    Dandenong police station – 11 active cases.
    Royal Melbourne hospital Royal Park campus – 10 active cases.

    3 out of 6 services that must stay open, service put at risk by the covid idiots.
    I wonder if the 3 business’s will renew their business council membership.

  21. @KerslakeC
    Β·
    5m
    The Age now doing a new poll on Vic. Looks like the Bots are racking up the no vote against Andrews so Morrison’s LNP have ‘leverage’ It’s obvious to all that Morrison’s LNP want Victoria to fail and so let COVID run amok. All Labour’s fault then. That is what the LNP want

  22. Greensborough Growler @ #1335 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 5:46 pm

    Spray @ #1330 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 5:41 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1327 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 5:38 pm

    Simon Katich @ #1324 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 5:33 pm

    Playing on true wickets all the time. If it bounces unusually or turns they are fucked.

    Chris Rogers and Mr Cricket played in WA.

    Rogers career took off when he played for Victoria.

    Mr Cricket was a special player that plied his skills all over the world before being ready for selection at age 30. He overame his WACA disability to be a great player for Australia.

    That’s rubbish about Rogers. He was a run machine around the world long before he went to Victoria.

    I was talking specificbly about Test Cricket. But, the point about playing outside WA to prepare himself for International duties is valid.

    Think the late establishment of his Test career was largely about the lack of available places. Ah, those were the days.

  23. Greensborough Growler @ #1339 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 5:48 pm

    Spray @ #1334 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 5:45 pm

    Simon Katich @ #1331 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 5:41 pm

    Kim Hughes?

    Yes!

    And Damien Martyn. Although that was a slow maturing process. But what a player.

    Martyn got a taste early and then spent a few years in purgatory after the loss of that test in Sydney. he was a better player second time around.

    Agreed. Probably treated a bit harshly for that one, but gee he was good when he finally made it back.

  24. SK, those two also played a lot of county cricket. Marnus Loosebuschange was the leading run scorer before he was picked in England and look what he did.
    It’s past the days of Doug Walters being dominant everywhere but England. Green bats with maturity but he can also change speeds. That’s important these days. Give him a season at Yorkshire.

  25. And Damien Martyn. Although that was a slow maturing process. But what a player.

    Terribly unfair what happened to him post the SCG test match during the collapse against South Africa. And the shocker LBW in the 2005 ashes.

  26. Picking Glenn Bishop, Ken Macleay and Simon O’Donnell in the same Australian one day team was a cricketing travesty but nothing compared to the way Brad Hodge was sacrificed to get Symonds into the test team.

  27. It’s past the days of Doug Walters being dominant everywhere but England.

    Didnt understand that. The pitches in country NSW werent the best back then.

    Maybe he liked the warm beer too much.

  28. lizzie @ #1331 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 5:47 pm

    @KerslakeC
    Β·
    5m
    The Age now doing a new poll on Vic. Looks like the Bots are racking up the no vote against Andrews so Morrison’s LNP have ‘leverage’ It’s obvious to all that Morrison’s LNP want Victoria to fail and so let COVID run amok. All Labour’s fault then. That is what the LNP want

    Could Mundo mention Blind Freddie or is it too soon?

  29. When we first started getting Test cricket from England on TV, I recall seeing Douggie walking around in the field with his hands in his pockets just looking like he wasn’t enjoying the weather.

    Mind you, they should have taken him in ’81, and if they did the Headingley nightmare might never have occurred. That’s my theory anyway.

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