More affairs of state

More evidence of a tight contest looming in Queensland while Mark McGowan reigns supreme in Western Australia; and a parliamentary committee in Victoria kicks the upper house electoral reform can down the road.

Not every state this time, but half:

Victoria

The Victorian parliament’s electoral matters committee has tabled the report of its inquiry into the 2018 state election, of which the greatest item of interest is a full chapter devoted to reform of the upper house electoral system. Together with Western Australia, Victoria is the last hold-out of the group voting ticket system that is electing ever-increasing numbers of preference-harvesting micro-party candidates. This reached a new height at the 2018 election, at which parties other than the Coalition, Labor and the Greens won 10 out of the 40 seats in the Legislative Council, including two elected with less than 1% of the vote. However, the report recommended only that a further parliamentary inquiry be held into the matter. The report also recommends no change to the two-week period for pre-polling, which the Liberals and Nationals called to be shortened.

Queensland

Polling of the marginal state seats of Currumbin, Mansfield and Aspley by YouGov for the Australian Conservation Foundation shows a combined two-party result of 52-48 for Labor, compared with an almost exact 50-50 for these three seats in 2017. The primary votes are Labor 37%, LNP 37%, Greens 10%, One Nation 4% and 10% don’t know, compared with 2017 election results of Labor 41.2%, LNP 38.4%, Greens 10.6% and One Nation 8.5%. The poll was conducted from August 17-19 and targeted 200 respondents in each of the three electorates.

Western Australia

A poll for The West Australian by Painted Dog Research showed Mark McGowan with an approval rating at 91%, up four from an already stratospheric result in June. Support for the state’s border closure was at 92%, up from 89% in May. The poll was conducted from a sample of 837, with field work dates not provided.

Northern Territory

As related in the dedicated post, the CLP sneaked home in an eighth seat in the Northern Territory election as the count concluded last night, producing a final result of Labor 14, CLP eight, Territory Alliance one and independents two.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,560 comments on “More affairs of state”

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  1. “Hey, I’m a free spirit…give me money.”

    “I’ve thrown off the shackles of your capitalistic society…give me money.”

    ***

    Why should people be forced to slave away in a system that is designed to benefit the few at the expense of the many? Why are the most vulnerable in society always the targets, rather than all the huge corporations who refuse to pay their fair share of tax? Capitalism has failed all but the rich elite. So yes, since the establishment imposes their failed and structurally unfair system upon people against their will, it is their responsibility to ensure that everyone who lives under their system has a decent quality of life. UBIs are just common sense, especially as we continue to move into a world where more and more jobs are being done by machines and AI.

  5. Interesting to note that more people support border closure in WA, 92% than support Mark McGowan, 91%. Some Liberals just can’t bring themselves to support the guy whose policies they support. 🙂

  8. A question!
    It’s being reported that Tony Abbott’s now confirmed position with the UK government is ‘ high level trade advisor’
    Wouldn’t an extremely security sensitive position call for some form of allegiance?

  11. Qld poll seems about right. Status quo or maybe a modest swing to Labor in SEQ. But hard to see many, if any, seats the ALP could win. Maybe Pumicrstone or Clayfield.

    What we really need is regional polling, especially of Townsville.

  12. D @ #8 Saturday, September 5th, 2020 – 6:57 am

    A question!
    It’s being reported that Tony Abbott’s now confirmed position with the UK government is ‘ high level trade advisor’
    Wouldn’t an extremely security sensitive position call for some form of allegiance?

    Toned Abs allegiance has always been to the Queen above all else. So it wouldn’t be too much of a mental step for him to make to see himself as continuing on in a job of representing the Queen’s government.

  14. ‘Why should people be forced to slave away in a system that is designed to benefit the few at the expense of the many?’

    No one’s forcing them to do that. If they want to live a self sufficient lifestyle, then they’re free to do so.

    I’m questioning the ethics of ‘turning your back on society’ and then expecting society to support you.

    Note that I was quite willing to consider support for a wide range of people who our society presently regards as ‘non productive’ (including, for example, addicts).

    If you’re sincerely embracing a lifestyle which rejects The Man then expecting The Man to give you money is ethically inconsistent.

    (Of course, the trouble with the whole ‘growing your own vegetables’ thing is that growing your own vegetables, as we who actually do it know to our cost, is an expensive proposition.

    If you were to try and set yourself up so that you needed little or no money from the government, as per Nicholas’ idea, you’d need a decent sized plot of land and a house, just for starters. Then there’s water bills – a few background veggie gardeners I know of abandoned ship when they saw how much it costs to water some tomatoes – rates, etc etc.

    Food is relatively cheap, and it’s even cheaper to buy food than to grow it.

    Quality is another matter…)

  16. BK @ #1588 Saturday, September 5th, 2020 – 6:34 am– snotty and miserable.

    Coming to a screen near you,kid’s cartoon characters Heckle and Jeckle to be replaced by Snotty and Miserable.

  17. It’s interesting that I asked a question about ethics, and the response appears to be ‘the system is corrupt so ethics don’t matter’.

    Maybe so, but you should still be able to answer a question on whether or not a certain action is ethical, even if you think the behaviour is unethical but justified.

    So it’s not a case of advocating for a better world, it’s envy that some people seem to be getting money for nothing and you’re missing out.

    The argument is even more interesting in that it comes from a couple of Green supporters who are always asking the rest of the world to do better.

    Yet they’re not after reform of the system, just more shares in it.

  18. BK says: Saturday, September 5, 2020 at 6:34 am
    Good morning KayJay
    Health report – snotty and miserable.

    No wonder you feel sick if the the PM and Treasurer are hanging around your house.

  19. And good on McGowan for sticking to his guns over the state border. Hardly anyone here wants the border reopened before our govt is ready to do so.

  20. Good on Lidia Thorpe being the first Aboriginal person to represent Victoria in the Senate, long overdue.

    Hopefully she can be more effective than her predecessor.

  25. How will Tony Abbott function in his new advisory role without Peta Credlin to straighten his tie, get him to appointments on time (no, Tony, not another drink), and tell him what to say?

  26. For those who may think there is no future after bonking the BeetRooter, and being humiliated on the front page of the Daily ToiletPaper, well think again.

    Vikki Campion has reinvented herself as a columnist for the Murdoch gutter rag – and clearly is there to dump crap on Labor, stoke leadershit and boost the mining industry funded LNP. An excerpt…

    “He was the great white hope, Albo. He was the Labor man who could take the Left and talk to the Right and would blow the Liberal’s off the blue ministerial carpet.

    Before the last election, when so many thought the Liberals were facing defeat, ministers would mutter — “don’t go too hard on Shorten, we need him there …”

    They were terrified of Anthony Norman Albanese, the Member for Grayndler in Sydney’s inner west. But now the tables have turned. They are not so dismissive when they mention Bill Shorten now, of course.

    The man who would once be PM has executed the nursing home and public housing offensive in Victoria against the government with surgical precision and empathy to match.

    Jim Chalmers is another they fear. The Queensland MP in his eighth year of office is young and relatively unknown but so was Jacinda Ardern before she became Opposition leader in New Zealand and we have seen how that turned out.

    But back to Albo. It was supposed to be Curtin, Chifley, Hawke and Albo. An Australian Labor leader parade to rival Mount Rushmore. He has all the attributes to be a Labor hero; like Chifley, who slept on a chaff bag in a shack as a young child, and Curtin, who grew up in poverty, leaving school at 13, Albo overcame early adversity, growing up with few means in the housing commission belt, to reach the upper offices of the ALP.

    So why is it that Albo, who unlike so many in Parliament House doesn’t have a plum in his mouth or a silver spoon up his backside, and who grew up in the bloody-fisted suburbs of the inner west before it was known for cats and computers, is struggling to resonate with the worker?

    Why is it that Matt Canavan, one of Capital Hill’s most critical thinkers, at ease with the white-collar Productivity Commission suits and PWC brains, connects so much more easily with guys and girls in high vis?”

    The rest of column is lauding the credentials of the LNP… with sideways swipes at Zali Steggal and Mark Butler.

  28. Confessions @ #19 Saturday, September 5th, 2020 – 5:56 am

    And good on McGowan for sticking to his guns over the state border. Hardly anyone here wants the border reopened before our govt is ready to do so.

    I was talking to a NZ advisor yesterday and he (usually ardently anti-Ardern) just laughed at the ‘just open it up’ idea as something so stupid no NZ, no matter how conservative would ever consider as an option. He did stick the boot in a little because the border / measures HAD NOT BEEN TOUGH ENOUGH.

  29. Matt Burke
    @matttburke

    Increasingly convinced that the UK Tories thinking Tony Abbott is an expert in trade involves an Australian backpacker in London pulling a dropbears style hoax that’s gone too far.

  30. “He was the great white hope, Albo. He was the Labor man who could take the Left and talk to the Right and would blow the Liberal’s off the blue ministerial carpet.

    Oh dear. 😆

  31. Tony Abbott doesn’t do negotiation, he doesn’t do compromise, he has all the grace, finesse and subtlety of a gorilla. Add to that his views on global heating, the environment and society generally would be regarded as far-right in the EU and most democracies.

    Is Boris Johnson planning to browbeat the UK’s trading partners into submission?

  32. WWP:

    Closing our border has kept us relatively coronavirus free.

    Incidentally advice from the Health dept came out the other day warning that there will be further health updates on public gatherings coming mid to late Sept. Most experts I’ve spoken to since then all agree that some restrictions are coming back given the concern within authorities about an outbreak here.

  33. Victoria has recorded another 76 new COVID cases and 11 deaths

    Another 76 new cases of coronavirus and 11 new deaths have been recorded in Victoria overnight.

    And after the nation cabinet meeting on Friday, new ‘hotspot’ rules to govern how state borders can reopen before Christmas will declare metropolitan areas no-go areas if they record 30 new COVID-19 cases or more in three days.

    The new rules suggest Melbourne and Sydney will need to get their daily cases down to fewer than 10 a day before other states agree to open borders.

    But in regional towns the bar will be even lower in the event of an outbreak, with just nine cases over three days triggering a ‘hotspot’ rating.

  37. Steve777 @ #31 Saturday, September 5th, 2020 – 8:33 am

    Tony Abbott doesn’t do negotiation, he doesn’t do compromise, he has all the grace, finesse and subtlety of a gorilla. Add to that his views on global heating, the environment and society generally would be regarded as far-right in the EU and most democracies.

    Is Boris Johnson planning to browbeat the UK’s trading partners into submission?

    Surely, the Conflict of Interest is a thing here.

    Australian Farmers are busting to get in to Britain. I suspect the negotiations will be difficult. So, is the deal that Abbott is associated with be to be done to advantage Australia or England?

  39. Confessions @ #32 Saturday, September 5th, 2020 – 6:35 am

    WWP:

    Closing our border has kept us relatively coronavirus free.

    Incidentally advice from the Health dept came out the other day warning that there will be further health updates on public gatherings coming mid to late Sept. Most experts I’ve spoken to since then all agree that some restrictions are coming back given the concern within authorities about an outbreak here.

    The idea that we’d accept upto 30 cases in three days as ok, is bizzare. Why would WA voluntarily do damage to our economy and the health of our citizens by letting covid back in with eased restrictions. ScottyfromMarketing can stick it.

  40. lizziesays: Saturday, September 5, 2020 at 8:40 am

    phoenixRED

    Aren’t those Morrison’s suggested rules, not necessarily accepted by the states?

    *************************************

    You may well be right Lizzie – I just posted what was written in the article – so many claims and counter claims – both here and in the US make it impossible to know who is telling the truth about anything anymore

    The article finished :

    This week Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced he has secured support for a road map for seven out of eight states bar Western Australia to reopen borders by Christmas under the new definition of COVID-19 ‘hot spots’.

    https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/victoria-has-recorded-another-76-new-covid-cases-and-11-deaths/news-story/16b409fc64e060b168a90400f3591a14

  41. (from previous thread)

    Fulvio Sammut:

    Friday, September 4, 2020 at 11:12 pm

    Noted & thanks for your considered response.

    _____________________________________________________

    frednk:

    Friday, September 4, 2020 at 9:48 pm

    [‘To be fair they were killing each other at the time, I do wonder how many lives she saved.’]

    Yes, that needs to be taken into account, and from memory, so brazen had they become, at least one of the murders was committed in front of children. Two of a number downsides of Gobbo’s behaviour, though, is that some of those involved and other serious crims
    could have their convictions quashed including Mokbel, and senior police may find themselves in the slammer pending the recommendations of McMurdo, RC, due Nov 30.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/05/lawyer-x-how-victoria-police-got-it-profoundly-wrong-with-informant-nicola-gobbo

    ____________________________________________________

    Greensborough Growler:

    Friday, September 4, 2020 at 9:49 pm

    [‘My alleged history is that I am related to the Kaiser from WW1.’]

    Merely “alleged”?

  42. Victoria’s daily Covid19 cases have been having ups and downs but the trend is in the right direction – Victorian seven-day moving average for new Covid 19 cases:

    August 8: 522
    August 15: 344
    August 22: 229
    August 29: 134
    September 5: 88

  43. guytaur

    So maybe you can answer the questions I asked which have gone unanswered —

    1. Why is a UBI preferable to a Jobseeker type payment which has fewer obligations?

    (My son’s idea, for example, is that you get a base rate regardless if you’re unemployed/below a certain income, and then get extra payments if you tick off certain activities – so, for example, if you apply for jobs you get an extra $20 per job applied for…)

    2. Why should someone earning a reasonable income – say, $80k a year – get a UBI?

    (The only argument I’ve seen here is that they would pay more in tax, which would wipe out the benefit of a UBI – so why pay them the UBI?)

  45. phoenixRED

    So Scotty is playing his usual trick of telling the media that he has come to an understanding in the expectation that this will put pressure on the states to agree.

  48. Wow I’m listening to a 538 podcast at the moment, and in response to a question about weighting, Nate Silver says that education never used to be indicative of party support, but now pollsters need to weight for education lest they end up with too many Democrats in their sample.

    Democrats therefore are now the party of education. 😆

  49. Long term Morrison was right in one thing out of his disaster of a day yesterday.

    We do need to learn to live with the virus until a vaccine can be rolled out effectively.

    The problem is we need real medical expertise and massive funding of resources including training for support staff to quickly respond to outbreaks so we can have localised quarantine zones.

    With that you can avoid the criticism Daniel Andrews faced in not being human enough in the response to the localised public housing towers outbreak.

    That’s why Premiers are politically smart to keep borders shut. Avoid monikers like Chairman Dan as we know the Victorian police do authoritarian quickly. Save the police and your political image by keeping the border shut keeping people safe.

    That means less resources including political capital is required to manage the disease. However long term it’s an untenable strategy as the virus continues to dominate political economic and cultural life.

  50. IMO, the LNP have stuffed up bad by getting in bed with Clive Palmer once again in Queensland (though, there are hints that this particular arrangement isn’t entirely consensual on the LNP’s part at least.) The Palaszczuk government isn’t exactly popular in rural / provincial QLD, but there seems to be pretty broad support across the state for keeping the borders closed, and I think even many deeply conservative Queenslanders would be taking a dim view of Clive’s shenanigans in WA.

    I can’t imagine all the big, yellow “Clive says… kick Labor out” posters we’re seeing plastered all across suburban, (relatively) Labor-friendly Brisbane are exactly going to be helping the LNP cause right about now, when it’s transperantly obvious to anyone who has turned on the news for a few minutes just *why* he wants Labor out.

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