A bone for every dog in the federation kennel:
New South Wales
Gladys Berejiklian has backed a move for the Liberal Party to desist from endorsing or financially supporting candidates in local government elections, reportedly to distance the state government from adverse findings arising from Independent Commission Against Corruption investigations into a number of councils. Many in the party are displeased with the idea, including a source cited by Linda Silmalis of the Daily Telegraph, who predicted “world war three” because many MPs relied on councillors to organise their numbers at preselections.
Victoria
The second biggest story in the politics of Victoria over the past fortnight has been the expose of the activities of Liberal Party operator Marcus Bastiaan by the Nine newspaper-and-television news complex, a neat counterpoint to its similar revelations involving Labor powerbroker Adem Somyurek in June. The revelations have been embarrassing or worse for federal MPs Michael Sukkar and Kevin Andrews, with the former appearing to have directed the latter’s electorate office staff to spend work time on party factional activities.
Together with then state party president Michael Kroger, Bastiaan was instrumental in establishing a conservative ascendancy with help from Bastiaan’s recruitment of members from Mormon churches and the Indian community. Having installed ally Nick Demiris as campaign director, Bastiaan’s fingerprints were on the party’s stridently conservative campaign at the 2018 state election, which yielded the loss of 11 lower house Coalition seats. Religious conservatives led by Karina Okotel, now a federal party vice-president, then split from the Bastiaan network, complaining their numbers had been used to buttress more secular conservatives.
The Age’s report noted that “in the days leading up to the publication of this investigation, News Corporation mastheads have run stories attacking factional opponents of Mr Bastiaan and Mr Sukkar”. Presumably related to this was a report on Okotel’s own party activities in The Australian last weekend, which was long on emotive adjectives but short on tangible allegations of wrongdoing, beyond her having formed an alliance with factional moderates after the split.
Queensland
There are now less than two months to go until the October 31 election, which is already awash with Clive Palmer’s trademark yellow advertising targeting Labor. Thanks the state’s commendable law requiring that donations be publicly disclosed within seven days (or 24 hours in the last week of an election campaign), as compared with over a year after the election at federal level (where only donations upwards of $14,000 need to be disclosed at all, compared with $1000 in Queensland), we are aware that Palmer’s companies have donated more than $80,000 to his United Australia Party. Liberal National Party sources cited by The Guardian say a preference deal has already been struck with Palmer’s outfit, although others in the party are said to be “furious” and “concerned” at the prospect of being tarred with Palmer’s brush.
Western Australia
I have nothing to relate here, which is worth noting in and itself, because the near total absence of voting intention polling from the state since Mark McGowan’s government came to power in 2017 is without modern historical precedent. This reflects the demise of the aggregated state polling that Newspoll used to provide on a quarterly basis in the smaller states (bi-monthly in the larger ones), and an apparent lack of interest in voting intention polling on behalf of the local monopoly newspaper, which offers only attitudinal polling from local market research outfit Painted Dog Research.
The one and only media poll of the term was this one from YouGov Galaxy in the Sunday Times in mid-2018, showing Labor with a lead of 54-46, slightly below the 55.5-44.5 blowout it recorded in 2017. With Newspoll having recorded Mark McGowan’s approval rating at 88% in late June, it can be stated with confidence that the gap would be quite a bit wider than that if a poll were conducted now. The West Australian reported in late July that Utting Research, which has conducted much of Labor’s internal polling over the years, had Labor leading 66-34, which would not sound too far-fetched to anyone in tune with the public mood at present. The next election is to be held on March 13.
South Australia
I have been delinquent in not covering the publication of the state’s draft redistribution a fortnight ago, but Ben Raue at The Tally Room has it covered here and here, complete with easily navigable maps.
These are the first boundaries drawn since the commissioners were liberated from the “fairness provision” which directed them to shoot for boundaries that would deliver a majority to the party with the largest two-party vote. This proved easier said than done, with three of Labor’s four election wins from 2002 and 2014 being achieved without it. The commissioners used the wriggle room allowed them in the legislation to essentially not even try in 2014, before bending other backwards to tilt the playing field to the Liberals in 2018, who duly won a modest majority from 51.9%.
By the Boundaries Commission’s own reckoning, there would have been no difference to the outcome of the 2018 election if it had held under the proposed new boundaries. Nonetheless, the Liberals have weakened in three seats where they are left with new margins of inside 1%: Elder, where their margin is slashed from 4.5% to 0.1%; Newland, down from 2.1% to 0.4%; and Adelaide, down from 1.1% to 0.7%. Their only notable compensation is an increase in their margin in King from 0.8% to 1.5%, and a cut in Labor’s margin in Badcoe from 5.6% to 2.0%.
Tasmania
Local pollster EMRS has published its quarterly state voting intention poll, which reflects Newspoll in finding voters to be over the moon with Premier Peter Gutwein, who came to the job just in time for COVID-19 to hit the fan when Will Hodgman retired in January. Over three polls, the Liberal vote has progressed from 43% to 52% to 54%; Labor has gone from 34% to 28% to 24%; and the Greens have gone from 12% to 10% and back again. Gutwein now leads Labor’s Rebecca White by 70% to 23% as preferred premier, out from 63-26 last time (and 41-39 to White on Gutwein’s debut in March). The poll was conducted by phone from August 18 to 24.
Northern Territory
With the last dregs of counting being conducted from now through Friday, fully our of the 25 seats in the Northern Territory remain in doubt following the election the Saturday before last, with current margins ranging from seven to 18 votes. However, the actual election result is well and truly done and dusted, with Labor having 13 seats in the bag. You can follow the action on my dedicated post, which includes live updating of results.
Australian Capital Territory
Not that I have anything particular to say about it at this point, but the Australian Capital Territory is the next cab off the election rank with polling day on October 17, a fortnight before Queensland.
New Zealand
Do Kiwi nationalists complain of being treated like the seventh state in Australia? Well, they can now, as I have a new Roy Morgan poll to relate ahead of their election which will, like that of the ACT, be held on October 17, with the originally anticipated date of September 19 being pushed back due to its recent COVID-19 flare-up. If this poll is any guide, this may have knocked a coat of paint off Labour without in any way endangering Jacinda Ardern’s government.
Labour is now at 48%, down from 53.5% last month, with National up two to 28.5%. The Greens are up from 8% to 11.5%, and do notably better out of this poll series than rivals Colmar Brunton and Reid Research, which show them struggling to keep their head above the 5% threshold that guarantees them seats in parliment under the country’s mixed-member proportional representation system. New Zealand First remain well below it at 2.5%, albeit that this is up a point on last month, while the free-market liberal ACT New Zealand party is clear of it on 6%, down half a point. The poll was conducted by phone from a sample of 897 “during August”.
Socrates says:
Wednesday, September 2, 2020 at 4:35 pm
“– companies taking jobkeeper funds were actually required to keep people in jobs.”
They either weren’t/aren’t allowed to be at work or their isn’t work because there’s no customers. There aren’t jobs to keep.
They believed the LNP’s ranting and raving about the GFC debt so yes, they are stupid.
Difference is Labor saved the economy so this ones really going to hurt them.
2020 has been a horrible year
Christmas holiday plans were put on hold when bushfires rolled through NSW on Nov 13, yes that early!
The smoke haze that enveloped Sydney from mid November will have dampened spending. A prominent but never met second cousin died in that smoke haze
City folk didn’t spend up big in regional areas until start of March
By March 23 tourism was shut down and we all went into hibernation
But blame it all on Covid and Victoria’s response!
Much rather Dan Anderson in charge than Micheal O’Brien or ScoMo or DimTim
Bucephalus @ #390 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 4:39 pm
I take it then it’s ok to refer to Scott and Joshie’s debt and deficit disaster?
It worked a treat last time.
Simon Katich @ #397 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 4:40 pm
I’d bet. But Tesla has no power over that, they don’t provide their own installation services in Australia.
Would love to be able to get a Powerwall 2 supplied and installed for that price.
Mexicanbeemer @ #381 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 4:05 pm
I’m not agreeing with Joshie F though…..so……and how do you know what Chalmers would be saying?
If the ALP was in office I suspect the situation would less dire.
It certainly pays to have a Labor state premier right now.
https://twitter.com/ConradLiveris/status/1300973418108444672/photo/1
Mundo
Had the ALP better managed the borders by closing them sooner then that might well be the case.
JobKeeper could have been paid directly to workers via the ATO One Touch payroll system rolled out October 2019, alleviating DividendKeeper & BossBonusKeeper
JobKeeper could have paid each worker 80% of their wage on March 1 upto $1500 almost immediately
JobKeeper rolled out after 7 weeks stressing those businesses and workers that live from week to week or pay packet to pay packet
Remember that most civil society is 4 square meals away from revolution
The government has taken the opportunity to destroy their ideological enemies refer George Monbiot for why legislation rewritten 3 times to exclude universities and allow churches (but not mosques)
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/sep/01/no-10-lobby-groups-democracy-policy-exchange?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Billie
That wouldn’t be a wage subsidy. The purpose was to help employers pay employees so it had to go through the employer.
mundo says:
Wednesday, September 2, 2020 at 4:44 pm
“I take it then it’s ok to refer to Scott and Joshie’s debt and deficit disaster?”
Have a crack and see how that works for you, Champ.
Bucephalus @ #399 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 4:41 pm
Irrelevant. The business is supposed to take the $1500 and pass it on to the employee, so that they can stay on as an employee (at no cost to the business!) until there’s stuff for them to do again. If that results in people being paid to do nothing because management lacks creativity, oh well. Avoiding that outcome was never the point.
Also, good example of why the payments should have just gone directly to employees. Some employers make dodgy middlemen at best.
mundo says:
Wednesday, September 2, 2020 at 4:49 pm
“If the ALP was in office I suspect the situation would less dire.”
Because…… nah, I’ve got nothing.
Jobkeeper paid directly to employees would have been a disaster. Jobkeeper hasn’t been particularly well thought out or implemented, but that bit was the only way to go.
We should all remember that Josh and Scomo achieved the doubling of Labor’s debt BEFORE covid19’s impacts hit the economic figures. The current Australian national debt is all on the Liberal party and its continuing to spend a fortune on business welfare while refusing to reign in corporate tax avoidance.
A Drovers Dog could have led Australia successfully through the GFC. The China led resources construction boom and the RBA being able to cut interest rates by 4% plus zero net Government debt made it very easy for the ALP.
The drover’s dog would have out performed the LNP.
What an indictment.
One more thing – I have commented on the bad economics of jobkeeper exclusions, leading to a collapse in spending, and that leading to a collapse in jobs (and soon a wave of bankruptcies).
Yet the ethics of it are even worse. As Jim Chalmers and Andrew Leigh have pointed out, we will see the perverse outcome of CEOs collecting millions in “performance bonuses” for delivering “profits” from firms whose only financial success has been to hang onto jobkeeper funds. Obscene.
In the Labor GFC non-recession, the coalition bleated about a few million in waste, even though a million jobs were saved, and untold economic destruction avoided as witnessed in all other OECD countries. Yet this time around we have surely seen billions wasted, and still have a million unemployed. Welcome to the Scomocalypse.
And we are not the best performing country this time around, even though our island geography and lack of land borders should have made this the easiest place to prevent covid arriving.
Good afternoon all. Liberal aparatchiks will be spinning like wind turbines for the next few days. If only we could generate power from them, or something else useful.
Just in case anyone thought only the Liberals were stupid enough to believe voters will fall for these hare-brained “Foodbowl of Asia” or “Electricity Superpower” type boondoggle schemes …
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/02/queensland-labor-asks-ross-garnaut-to-revive-irrigation-scheme-involving-pipeline-through-flinders-ranges
It’s not really even worth reading the article. Here is the key paragraph that is essentially all you need to know …
Ross Garaut should know better. He’s become a real worry these days 🙁
Sure, but the fact remains the powerwall price went up when the subsidy came in.
AND, that price comes with the caveat that the installer classifies the install as “standard” and you sign up for the company to take control over your battery when it suits them (although the fine print of that VPP deal isnt too bad).
Still, even at $7k, the chap at SolarQuotes doesnt reckon it pays for itself. So instead, I just time my appliances to run when it is sunny where possible.
How predictable is that?
Our resident Liberal party hack – in the face of Oz moving into recession for the first time in a long time adopts the same old, same old cliche of………..
“Yeh, things not so good here, but mate, have a look at all those other countries doing worse than us. Voters aren’t stupid (oh yeah?) and they can see that the country is in the very best of hands……
Contrast when Labor is in power…………….GFC………..”What GFC?” Julie Bishop was it who came out with this crap at the time?
I hand it to the Liberals, they do a brand of hypocrisy and double standard that Labor can only dream of…..
Mostly, yes.
Haha nice one 🙂
Bucephalus @ #403 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 5:00 pm
I have. It’s does tories heads in something shocking. Mundo is going to have a lot of fun.
Best of luck Puce with Scott ‘n Joshie’s debt and deficit disaster!
Bucephalus @ #405 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 5:02 pm
Clearly.
It would be nice, given Samantha Ratnams very selfless act this week, if the forthcoming major stimulus announcements by Dan Anderson included a ‘Green New Deal’ type of jobs policy going forward in Victoria.
Rubbish. Absolute rubbish…
It would have been Chris B we were blindly agreeing with! 😉
Makes a nice change to see VICPOL up and about rigorously enforcing the law in the last few days.
Who knew that they had it in them?
mundo says:
Wednesday, September 2, 2020 at 5:32 pm
“Best of luck Puce with Scott ‘n Joshie’s debt and deficit disaster!”
I’m pretty comfortable that most voters understand the situation and will make their decisions based upon what they think is best for them next time they vote.
I look forward to the ALP saying the debt and deficits are a disaster but they would have spent more and betterer.
Mexicanbeemer @ #366 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 3:34 pm
The Melbourne Stage 3 lockdown did not occur until 7 July, a week after the end of the period to which the economic data relates. Stage 4 followed on 2 August. The coalition cannot claim otherwise. Your statement is patently false. In other words, it is a deliberate lie, intended to mislead. There is no link at all, since in our perceived universe time goes forwards.
Barefaced lying just reveals your true nature. We should be grateful for that, so that we can take it into account in future.
I hope this comes out. This photo appears to be of Josh Frydenberg pointing to a graph of GDP at the moment in time he took over the Australian economy. Or it could be a graph of his chance of becoming prime minister after Scomo.
Frydenberg gets out the violin
Nonsense. They don’t want to “save lives”. Among other things, they imposed Robodebt (suicides), made a complete mess of aged care (premature deaths) and have insisted that there should be no lockdowns.
The Gold Coast Bulletin has a report on seat polling conducted by YouGov for the Australian Conservation Foundation, showing 50.8-49.2 to Labor in the Gold Coast seat of Currumbin, which the LNP won 53.3-46.7 in 2017 and 51.2-48.8 at a by-election in March. Primary votes: Labor 37%, LNP 37%, Greens 10%, One Nation 4% (plus, I think, 10% undecided). They also polled the seats of Aspley and Mansfield in Brisbane, the result of which I’m hoping to chase up.
Probably paywalled:
https://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/news/council/election-exclusive-first-look-at-shock-poll-results-in-gold-coast-cliffhanger-seat-of-currumbin/news-story/34b8986406bd6971f3746dc0b0bcbb05
“You call THAT a debt and deficit disaster? THIS is a debt and deficit disaster!”
Simon Katich @ #418 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 5:20 pm
That guy has been really negative on batteries since forever. I sometimes wonder if it has something to do with being associated with a company that provides solar quotes.
But yeah, if you’re doing an investment to earn a return then just put up as many panels as your roof will allow and get the highest feed-in rate you can. Should pay for itself in 3-4 years at current rates, and run for up to another 20.
Batteries are more for if you don’t want fossil-fired energy going into your house (and/or car). They work great for that; things don’t have to be economical to accomplish good. Although on my numbers the complete package (batteries + solar) will pay for itself in right around 10 years, which coincides with the warrantied lifespan of the batteries. Not that they stop working immediately thereafter, though ROI calculations seem to work that way.
Yabba
Your statement is patently false. In other words, it is a deliberate lie, intended to mislead. There is no link at all, since in our perceived universe time goes forwards.
——————————-
I take offense to this comment because that was not the intention at all thanks.
Melbourne has been under some form of restriction on and off for several months and Morrison finally shut the national gate in March.
Liberal debt, deficit AND GDP disaster.
The trifecta.
Speaking of solar power. SA had the second cheapest power (RRP) in the country in August (QLD cheapest). And yesterday the SA RRP was 1/5th that of NSW.
Easy to see why the NSW Liberal government have seen the SA ALP light and are rushing to renewables. How many NSW coal PS will close in the next 24 months? How many articles of apology will Chris Uhlmann write?
Maybe SCoalMo needs to make taxpayers pay for a new Coal PS in NSW as well as the one he plans in QLD – and pay for the coal to burn for power nobody will buy.
yabba @ #423 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 5:40 pm
Thank you Yabba, Mundo had already pointed this out, perhaps not as forthrightly however.
Mundo
Yabba should be withdrawing his comment for the absurdity of it.
This is a teriffic article about the US Policis and the coming Election from an insider with personal biases. Long article. But, a great read. Do yourself a favour!
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/07/david-shor-cancel-culture-2020-election-theory-polls.html?utm_content=buffer3b23c&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
So, LNP in power since 2013 at the Federal level………The economy was faltering before CV19 struck and now, the LNP have nowhere to hide…………..It is all down to them………………………
What we will hear now is just a litany of ……………It’s worse overseas………………..Victoria is to blame………………The borders must disappear………………………….There is a “Road Out” (first cliche of many to come) and dare I say it, Trust Us……………………………………
If Labor were in power Federally, the noise from the Murdoch press and Stokes, not to mention their play things, the LNP would be deafening…………………….Hypocrisy of the first order……………………
Careful. The guy is a legend ’round here.
I didnt use him – my understanding is he doesnt do the quoting directly. He sends it out to three companies to quote. Pretty sure you can ask for batteries to be included in that.
The solar company I used also told me batteries are great for convenience and the environment but dont expect to recover the cost any time soon. The assumption being grid electricity prices will reduce (as they have already started to do).
Having an electric car would make things interesting. It would depend on how you use it – when you charge it.
William Bowe @ #435 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 5:58 pm
The closer you are to the border, the more the voters support the border closures?
Jessica Irvine dons her rose tinted glasses . I love No.4 , a bit ‘relax it is people not the economy suffering’
……………………………….
Seven reasons not to freak out now we’re in a recession
1: It’s old news……………
2: The figures are much better than originally feared………..
3: We have done much better than other countries……………..
4: It’s nonsense to say that economies have “suffered” in some way, as many are claiming………………..But think about it. Economies don’t suffer: people do.
5: Despite the gloomy headlines, the figures reveal some good news. …………………
6: Aussies have just amassed their biggest quarterly savings buffer since the mid-1970s, according to these figures…………..
7: This recession is different…………………..
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/seven-reasons-not-to-freak-out-now-we-re-in-a-recession-20200902-p55roz.html#comments
On Jobkeeper.
Don’t forget that it is a system where the employer has to pay employees out of own funds to then be reimbursed approx a month later.
In the days prior to Covid, because of existing poor conditions, many employers were operating from week to week. When Covid arrived they didn’t have any reserve funds to support employees when business income had been drastically reduced.
Once again it has been a scheme more suited to the better off employers
Simon Katich @ #446 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 6:19 pm
You will need the batteries once the power companies have the ability to turn off your panels, which I believe has just been legislated in at least one state (might be WA?), and also when the feed-in tariffs fall once again.
Otherwise, your panels will not pay for themselves.