A bone for every dog in the federation kennel:
New South Wales
Gladys Berejiklian has backed a move for the Liberal Party to desist from endorsing or financially supporting candidates in local government elections, reportedly to distance the state government from adverse findings arising from Independent Commission Against Corruption investigations into a number of councils. Many in the party are displeased with the idea, including a source cited by Linda Silmalis of the Daily Telegraph, who predicted “world war three” because many MPs relied on councillors to organise their numbers at preselections.
Victoria
The second biggest story in the politics of Victoria over the past fortnight has been the expose of the activities of Liberal Party operator Marcus Bastiaan by the Nine newspaper-and-television news complex, a neat counterpoint to its similar revelations involving Labor powerbroker Adem Somyurek in June. The revelations have been embarrassing or worse for federal MPs Michael Sukkar and Kevin Andrews, with the former appearing to have directed the latter’s electorate office staff to spend work time on party factional activities.
Together with then state party president Michael Kroger, Bastiaan was instrumental in establishing a conservative ascendancy with help from Bastiaan’s recruitment of members from Mormon churches and the Indian community. Having installed ally Nick Demiris as campaign director, Bastiaan’s fingerprints were on the party’s stridently conservative campaign at the 2018 state election, which yielded the loss of 11 lower house Coalition seats. Religious conservatives led by Karina Okotel, now a federal party vice-president, then split from the Bastiaan network, complaining their numbers had been used to buttress more secular conservatives.
The Age’s report noted that “in the days leading up to the publication of this investigation, News Corporation mastheads have run stories attacking factional opponents of Mr Bastiaan and Mr Sukkar”. Presumably related to this was a report on Okotel’s own party activities in The Australian last weekend, which was long on emotive adjectives but short on tangible allegations of wrongdoing, beyond her having formed an alliance with factional moderates after the split.
Queensland
There are now less than two months to go until the October 31 election, which is already awash with Clive Palmer’s trademark yellow advertising targeting Labor. Thanks the state’s commendable law requiring that donations be publicly disclosed within seven days (or 24 hours in the last week of an election campaign), as compared with over a year after the election at federal level (where only donations upwards of $14,000 need to be disclosed at all, compared with $1000 in Queensland), we are aware that Palmer’s companies have donated more than $80,000 to his United Australia Party. Liberal National Party sources cited by The Guardian say a preference deal has already been struck with Palmer’s outfit, although others in the party are said to be “furious” and “concerned” at the prospect of being tarred with Palmer’s brush.
Western Australia
I have nothing to relate here, which is worth noting in and itself, because the near total absence of voting intention polling from the state since Mark McGowan’s government came to power in 2017 is without modern historical precedent. This reflects the demise of the aggregated state polling that Newspoll used to provide on a quarterly basis in the smaller states (bi-monthly in the larger ones), and an apparent lack of interest in voting intention polling on behalf of the local monopoly newspaper, which offers only attitudinal polling from local market research outfit Painted Dog Research.
The one and only media poll of the term was this one from YouGov Galaxy in the Sunday Times in mid-2018, showing Labor with a lead of 54-46, slightly below the 55.5-44.5 blowout it recorded in 2017. With Newspoll having recorded Mark McGowan’s approval rating at 88% in late June, it can be stated with confidence that the gap would be quite a bit wider than that if a poll were conducted now. The West Australian reported in late July that Utting Research, which has conducted much of Labor’s internal polling over the years, had Labor leading 66-34, which would not sound too far-fetched to anyone in tune with the public mood at present. The next election is to be held on March 13.
South Australia
I have been delinquent in not covering the publication of the state’s draft redistribution a fortnight ago, but Ben Raue at The Tally Room has it covered here and here, complete with easily navigable maps.
These are the first boundaries drawn since the commissioners were liberated from the “fairness provision” which directed them to shoot for boundaries that would deliver a majority to the party with the largest two-party vote. This proved easier said than done, with three of Labor’s four election wins from 2002 and 2014 being achieved without it. The commissioners used the wriggle room allowed them in the legislation to essentially not even try in 2014, before bending other backwards to tilt the playing field to the Liberals in 2018, who duly won a modest majority from 51.9%.
By the Boundaries Commission’s own reckoning, there would have been no difference to the outcome of the 2018 election if it had held under the proposed new boundaries. Nonetheless, the Liberals have weakened in three seats where they are left with new margins of inside 1%: Elder, where their margin is slashed from 4.5% to 0.1%; Newland, down from 2.1% to 0.4%; and Adelaide, down from 1.1% to 0.7%. Their only notable compensation is an increase in their margin in King from 0.8% to 1.5%, and a cut in Labor’s margin in Badcoe from 5.6% to 2.0%.
Tasmania
Local pollster EMRS has published its quarterly state voting intention poll, which reflects Newspoll in finding voters to be over the moon with Premier Peter Gutwein, who came to the job just in time for COVID-19 to hit the fan when Will Hodgman retired in January. Over three polls, the Liberal vote has progressed from 43% to 52% to 54%; Labor has gone from 34% to 28% to 24%; and the Greens have gone from 12% to 10% and back again. Gutwein now leads Labor’s Rebecca White by 70% to 23% as preferred premier, out from 63-26 last time (and 41-39 to White on Gutwein’s debut in March). The poll was conducted by phone from August 18 to 24.
Northern Territory
With the last dregs of counting being conducted from now through Friday, fully our of the 25 seats in the Northern Territory remain in doubt following the election the Saturday before last, with current margins ranging from seven to 18 votes. However, the actual election result is well and truly done and dusted, with Labor having 13 seats in the bag. You can follow the action on my dedicated post, which includes live updating of results.
Australian Capital Territory
Not that I have anything particular to say about it at this point, but the Australian Capital Territory is the next cab off the election rank with polling day on October 17, a fortnight before Queensland.
New Zealand
Do Kiwi nationalists complain of being treated like the seventh state in Australia? Well, they can now, as I have a new Roy Morgan poll to relate ahead of their election which will, like that of the ACT, be held on October 17, with the originally anticipated date of September 19 being pushed back due to its recent COVID-19 flare-up. If this poll is any guide, this may have knocked a coat of paint off Labour without in any way endangering Jacinda Ardern’s government.
Labour is now at 48%, down from 53.5% last month, with National up two to 28.5%. The Greens are up from 8% to 11.5%, and do notably better out of this poll series than rivals Colmar Brunton and Reid Research, which show them struggling to keep their head above the 5% threshold that guarantees them seats in parliment under the country’s mixed-member proportional representation system. New Zealand First remain well below it at 2.5%, albeit that this is up a point on last month, while the free-market liberal ACT New Zealand party is clear of it on 6%, down half a point. The poll was conducted by phone from a sample of 897 “during August”.
Smith’s always been pretty reasonable. There are a few Liberals out this way that value civility and consistency (eg. rules apply to members of all parties, not just those you don’t like). Apparently the niceness diminishes the further south you go (Jason Wood, for example).
Simon Katich @ #325 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 2:41 pm
The share price growth has been staggering, with most observers very bullish, up to US$7,000 or some seriously higher. The 5:1 split saw a surge. The next milestone will be battery day, which might see a dip (short lived imo) if the build up is not up to some expectations. But the bullishness is mostly built on predicted car sales, and Shanghai ramps it up, Freemont comes on line, and Berlin mega gets started. Not to mention battery and solar.
I think Musk is one of the most extraordinary operators in the world at the moment.
Simon Katich @ #326 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 2:41 pm
So has the PE ratio. last time I noticed it was 400 – overcooked on that measurement at least. Under about 20 is much better regarded.
The music so far is still playing.
Bugler says:
Wednesday, September 2, 2020 at 3:14 pm
Smith’s always been pretty reasonable. There are a few Liberals out this way that value civility and consistency (eg. rules apply to members of all parties, not just those you don’t like). Apparently the niceness diminishes the further south you go (Jason Wood, for example).
_________
The fact that he doesn’t sit in the Liberal party room is also a positive. I’ve heard that there are a few conservatives who despise him but that’s gotta be a good thing right?
what i got out of question time from Morrison and his cronies were
Political point scoring in blaming the people of Australia ,especially those Victorians getting infected and dying from/with the corona virus.
Which has stopped Morrison and his cronies getting the surplus , nothing to do with Morrison and his cronies incompetence , in fact Morrison and his cronies are 100% fault free
Yep, hate him or just find him repulsive, he took his gains and invested it in something meaningful.
“I just don’t care.”
Dotard was out pimping his staff…
‘Donald Trump told Sarah Sanders she would have to “go to North Korea and take one for the team”, after Kim Jong-un winked at the then White House press secretary during a summit in Singapore in June 2018.
“Kim Jong-un hit on you!” a delighted Trump joked, according to Sanders’ new memoir. “He did! He fucking hit on you!”
Speaking for Myself will be released next Tuesday. The Guardian obtained a copy.
Rather than a tell-all by a former staffer or a burn-all by a hostile family member, the book is a paean to the president by a loyal follower with the subtitle Faith, Freedom and the Fight of Our Lives Inside the Trump White House.
Sanders is from a notable Republican family – her father is Mike Huckabee, a candidate for the presidential nomination in 2008 and 2016 – and reportedly has her eye on a run for governor in Arkansas.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/01/donald-trump-sarah-sanders-take-one-for-the-team-kim-jong-un-wink-book?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1599023985
Scott @ #348 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 3:18 pm
Victoria’s second lockdown had nothing to do with the 2 negative quarters of growth.
Labor needs to impress this point on the public every time it comes up.
It’s the economy,stupid or not.
The economy has come crashing down around our ears.
The Liberals have been in power for the whole seven years that it took government inertia, corruption, maladministration and greed to bring it down. No, excuses, no lies, no unicorns, no fake news is going to change their responsibility for this crisis.
They know it, the media know it, the public know it, even the Speaker knows it.
All Albanese has to do is wait.
Wait for the collective public’s bank balances to erode significantly. Wait for jobs to be lost. Wait for the banks to call in debt and foreclose on mortgages. And this will come to pass.
No need for the frantic pantomime of shouting, wailing and gnashing of teeth that the Mundo’s of this world demand from him.
Wait. Calmly. Stoically. With dignity. As Albanese has been doing.
It won’t be long now.
Scott @ #348 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 3:18 pm
…and unfortunately Labor is allowing them off Scott Free.
Did anyone on the opposition side get thrown out today?
Stephen Spencer
@sspencer_63
·
26m
NSW had a slightly bigger fall than Vic in the June Quarter. Do you even check these things before tweeting? Or did you know this but it spoiled your narrative?
Quote Tweet
Michael O’Brien
@michaelobrienmp
· 2h
Australia is now in deep recession and sadly Victoria has led the nation in economic damage.
It’s beyond poor that the Labor Govt is only now starting to speak to business, so close to the scheduled end of stage 4.
Victorians deserve a plan to get us back to work #springst twitter.com/theage/status/…
Fulvio Sammut @ #353 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 3:26 pm
‘All Albanese has to do is wait.’
Rubbish.
Every report you’ll see or hear tonight, tomorrow…the next day will tell you the pandemic is responsible for the economy turning to shit.
Labor has to get on the front foot.
Please.
mundo
Victoria’s second lockdown had nothing to do with the 2 negative quarters of growth.
Labor needs to impress this point on the public every time it comes up.?
That’s it mundo, start encouraging Labor not slagging them!.
One thing to remember with American stocks is because there is no franking credits there isn’t the same urge to pay dividends. Investors like dividends but prefer earnings and share price growth.
The media landscape is so toxic to the ALP atm that Albanese must chose a good time to sell his vision and beliefs to the public. So I agree with the “calmly…”. But I disagree with “wait”. Now is the time to start.
Victoria @ #355 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 3:27 pm
‘Australia is now in deep recession and sadly Victoria has led the nation in economic damage.’
Victoria’s 2nd lockdown effect won’t show up in the data till the October quarter.
The recession has nothing to do with Victoria’s 2nd lockdown. Nothing.
Labor must make this point and make it stick.
I’ve done my bit already with a neighbor….who was appropriately gobsmacked.
The average voter is as dumb as a box of rocks.
Never forget.
1934pc says:
Wednesday, September 2, 2020 at 3:30 pm
mundo
Victoria’s second lockdown had nothing to do with the 2 negative quarters of growth.
Labor needs to impress this point on the public every time it comes up.?
That’s it mundo, start encouraging Labor not slagging them!.
——————————————
1934pc
There is a clear link between locking down the second biggest city and the economic data. The ALP cannot claim otherwise.
1934pc @ #357 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 3:30 pm
As I usually do albeit in a slightly oblique way sometimes. It’s always implicit.
Mundo
Victoria has been under restrictions for most of the past few months with a brief period where they were lifted.
Mexicanbeemer @ #361 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 3:34 pm
‘There is a clear link between locking down the second biggest city and the economic data.’
Certainly, but it won’t show up until the OCTOBER QUARTER DATA.
Get it?
Gotta say,
The Albo let’s be as quiet as a mouse strategy will only allow the Scott Free government to live up to it’s name.
Scott Free is making a lot of noise about “Once in a century” Labor needs to hold an NPC address where they talk about the soft march quarter. And talk about a plan out of htis mess.
Rich toffs doing a fucking renovation won’t save Australian. People need jobs.
ItzaDream @ #352 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 3:15 pm
Musk is certainly good at making money. But his list of broken promises and missed deadlines continues to grow almost as fast as his wealth. But I agree, he is an extraordinary operator.
Mexicanbeemer
We were approaching a recession anyway in the first quarter!.
1934pc says:
Wednesday, September 2, 2020 at 3:41 pm
Mexicanbeemer
We were approaching a recession anyway in the first quarter!.
————————-
That is debatable because the virus has thrown all economic data into the bin.
Simon Katich @ #366 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 3:32 pm
Agreed. But Albo is not the man to do it. He’s not able to articulate a “vision” because he has none.
Mexicanbeemer @ #363 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 3:36 pm
Stage 3 restrictions re-applied in a couple of regions from July 8….stage 4 August 2..
Outside the June quarter. That’s beside the point anyway. Scrooter and Co are HAMMERING THE IDEA THAT THE SECOND LOCKDOWN IN VICTORIA HAS PLUNGED US INTO ECONOMIC OBLIVION.
Mundo
And before that Victoria had restrictions in place. All the data this year is ugly because of the virus and the ALP should pushing the government to maintain higher welfare payments and other measures.
Mexicanbeemer
Are you a recipient?.
Mexicanbeemer @ #372 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 3:47 pm
‘And before that Victoria had restrictions in place.’
Okay, you don’t get it.
Labor should be the governments lap dog barking ideas to help them in a jam.
Great
No really, that’s great.
A recipe for perpetual opposition.
Mundo
That is not what i wrote because i clearly said the ALP should be pushing the government to support the economy.
Analysis of the poles by someone who knows how to analysis poles at 8 minutes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2G2b6TNL9mM
1934pc says:
Wednesday, September 2, 2020 at 3:55 pm
Mexicanbeemer
Are you a recipient?.
Why do you ask that question?
Simon Katich @ #252 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 12:37 pm
You mean, Powerwalls? There doesn’t seem to be a huge discrepancy between Tesla’s US and AU prices at the moment.
US Powerwall 2 – (AU$14940 supplied and installed):
– AU$8840 battery
– AU$1700 gateway* (one gateway can run multiple batteries)
– AU$4400(!) installation
(may not include state/local taxes)
AU Powerwall 2 (AU$12850 to AU$14600 supplied and installed):
– AU$10,000 battery
– AU$1700 gateway
– AU$1,150 to AU$2,900 installation (estimated)
(GST inclusive)
We’re actually slightly ahead on the current exchange rate. And anyone who bought one in March should be way ahead of any US customer. Despite GST (and also shipping?).
The Australian battery price is very nearly just the US price converted to AUD, with GST added on. And installation can be far cheaper than what Tesla is charging in the US.
* Tesla doesn’t quote the gateway and install costs separately for US purchasers, so I’ve just set the US gateway cost to be the same as the Australian cost, and deducted that amount from their combined “gateway and install” quote. The remainder becomes the US “installation” cost.
Mexicanbeemer @ #375 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 3:56 pm
No Labor should be doing every thing it can to expose the weak corrupt incompetence of this government in a campaign aimed at getting them off the government benches asap.
ItzaDream @ #351 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 3:15 pm
He’s more than a bit of an ass. It’s Tesla that’s extraordinary, as an organization. Musk can have credit for seeing the need for something like Tesla, but that only goes so far.
At this point (or ever since that “funding secured” tweet, really) Tesla is better without him, imo. More spectacle than substance.
Mundo
If the ALP were in office then Jim C would be saying the same thing Josh F is saying and we would be agreeing with Jim C.
Say what you will about Tesla but what Musk has done with SpaceX has been pretty extraordinary.
https://www.smartcompany.com.au/coronavirus/victoria-covid-19-support-bubble/#.X0820tBr9xI.twitter
Busy day and I just caught up with the news about the Morrison recession. Impressive! At -7% it is approximately double the combined impact of the Whitlam and Keating recessions. I know, some of you are thinking it is unfair to call 1991 the “Keating recession” because it was due to world factors. Meh. That is how recessions get labelled in the Murdoch press. Scomo would want us to call it the Morrison recession. It is an achievement. He has worked for it since he was Treasurer.
We have all been expecting a recession since April, when the IMF forecast Australia would experience a 7% contraction over 12 months.
https://theconversation.com/how-will-the-coronavirus-recession-compare-with-the-worst-in-australias-history-136379
But Josh really, hit it out of the park today, announcing -7% in one quarter! The Morrison government will now easily beat the IMF forecast. Australia’s biggest debt accumulator has now become Australia’s biggest economy shrinker.
Socrates
Fear not..
Drumroll.
Isn’t that a fantastic plan ?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/sep/02/australia-coronavirus-live-update-victoria-state-of-emergency-china-scott-morrison-covid-19-parliament-live-news
Socrates
Absolutely and that is why the ALP needs to focus on how its handled and on the failure to manage the nation’s border against a threat known late last year.
Assantdj says:
Wednesday, September 2, 2020 at 3:13 pm
It isn’t a large withdrawal.
$42 billion from $2.7 Trillion is bugger all.
Mexican
Who knows what he would be saying.
However, what both he and Mt Frydenburg should actually be talking about is how we can prosper through through getting out of this challenge, not lamenting the fact that we face it, nor trying to assign blame.
Stop whinging, start working!
a r
from a year ago…
https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/tesla-powerwall-price-vpp/
poroti, MB
Agreed. Also, the fact that Labor has not opposed a single covid stimulus measure, Albo even asking for some to be expanded further, means labor does not wear one % of this result.
We were going to get a recession anyway. But it would not have been as bad if:
– assistance went to individual workers, not employers
– companies taking jobkeeper funds were actually required to keep people in jobs. (they had laid off 700,000 by July)
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/23/companies-receiving-jobkeeper-have-laid-off-more-than-700000-excluded-workers
– casual employees had been included
– contract employees had been included
– tertiary education workers had been included
– tertiary students had been included
– non-resident workers had been included
Millions of people have been left unsupported, so have stopped spending. Its not rocket science.
Despite individual stuff-ups the overall medical response to covid19 has been pretty good in Australia, ever since Morrison dropped his opposition to lockdowns in March and accepted the science, following NZ’s lead the day after their lockdown.
But the economic response has been patchy, bordering on incompetent. Today proves it.
To get out of this hole Scomo and Josh will have to swallow their voodoo economic BS and admit their government will have to do something big. Unemployed workers do not start spending if they are given a tax cut.
I do giggle at the spin you guys are trying to put on the economic data – anyone would think that Australia is the only economy in the world going backwards. The only one! And the LNP have caused it!!!
Do you really believe voters are that stupid?
ar
Not here. I am hearing plenty of stories about huge estimates on install where there appears no obvious reason it isnt a standard install. Installer taking advantage of the subsidy.
Socrates
A very good summary.