A bone for every dog in the federation kennel:
New South Wales
Gladys Berejiklian has backed a move for the Liberal Party to desist from endorsing or financially supporting candidates in local government elections, reportedly to distance the state government from adverse findings arising from Independent Commission Against Corruption investigations into a number of councils. Many in the party are displeased with the idea, including a source cited by Linda Silmalis of the Daily Telegraph, who predicted “world war three” because many MPs relied on councillors to organise their numbers at preselections.
Victoria
The second biggest story in the politics of Victoria over the past fortnight has been the expose of the activities of Liberal Party operator Marcus Bastiaan by the Nine newspaper-and-television news complex, a neat counterpoint to its similar revelations involving Labor powerbroker Adem Somyurek in June. The revelations have been embarrassing or worse for federal MPs Michael Sukkar and Kevin Andrews, with the former appearing to have directed the latter’s electorate office staff to spend work time on party factional activities.
Together with then state party president Michael Kroger, Bastiaan was instrumental in establishing a conservative ascendancy with help from Bastiaan’s recruitment of members from Mormon churches and the Indian community. Having installed ally Nick Demiris as campaign director, Bastiaan’s fingerprints were on the party’s stridently conservative campaign at the 2018 state election, which yielded the loss of 11 lower house Coalition seats. Religious conservatives led by Karina Okotel, now a federal party vice-president, then split from the Bastiaan network, complaining their numbers had been used to buttress more secular conservatives.
The Age’s report noted that “in the days leading up to the publication of this investigation, News Corporation mastheads have run stories attacking factional opponents of Mr Bastiaan and Mr Sukkar”. Presumably related to this was a report on Okotel’s own party activities in The Australian last weekend, which was long on emotive adjectives but short on tangible allegations of wrongdoing, beyond her having formed an alliance with factional moderates after the split.
Queensland
There are now less than two months to go until the October 31 election, which is already awash with Clive Palmer’s trademark yellow advertising targeting Labor. Thanks the state’s commendable law requiring that donations be publicly disclosed within seven days (or 24 hours in the last week of an election campaign), as compared with over a year after the election at federal level (where only donations upwards of $14,000 need to be disclosed at all, compared with $1000 in Queensland), we are aware that Palmer’s companies have donated more than $80,000 to his United Australia Party. Liberal National Party sources cited by The Guardian say a preference deal has already been struck with Palmer’s outfit, although others in the party are said to be “furious” and “concerned” at the prospect of being tarred with Palmer’s brush.
Western Australia
I have nothing to relate here, which is worth noting in and itself, because the near total absence of voting intention polling from the state since Mark McGowan’s government came to power in 2017 is without modern historical precedent. This reflects the demise of the aggregated state polling that Newspoll used to provide on a quarterly basis in the smaller states (bi-monthly in the larger ones), and an apparent lack of interest in voting intention polling on behalf of the local monopoly newspaper, which offers only attitudinal polling from local market research outfit Painted Dog Research.
The one and only media poll of the term was this one from YouGov Galaxy in the Sunday Times in mid-2018, showing Labor with a lead of 54-46, slightly below the 55.5-44.5 blowout it recorded in 2017. With Newspoll having recorded Mark McGowan’s approval rating at 88% in late June, it can be stated with confidence that the gap would be quite a bit wider than that if a poll were conducted now. The West Australian reported in late July that Utting Research, which has conducted much of Labor’s internal polling over the years, had Labor leading 66-34, which would not sound too far-fetched to anyone in tune with the public mood at present. The next election is to be held on March 13.
South Australia
I have been delinquent in not covering the publication of the state’s draft redistribution a fortnight ago, but Ben Raue at The Tally Room has it covered here and here, complete with easily navigable maps.
These are the first boundaries drawn since the commissioners were liberated from the “fairness provision” which directed them to shoot for boundaries that would deliver a majority to the party with the largest two-party vote. This proved easier said than done, with three of Labor’s four election wins from 2002 and 2014 being achieved without it. The commissioners used the wriggle room allowed them in the legislation to essentially not even try in 2014, before bending other backwards to tilt the playing field to the Liberals in 2018, who duly won a modest majority from 51.9%.
By the Boundaries Commission’s own reckoning, there would have been no difference to the outcome of the 2018 election if it had held under the proposed new boundaries. Nonetheless, the Liberals have weakened in three seats where they are left with new margins of inside 1%: Elder, where their margin is slashed from 4.5% to 0.1%; Newland, down from 2.1% to 0.4%; and Adelaide, down from 1.1% to 0.7%. Their only notable compensation is an increase in their margin in King from 0.8% to 1.5%, and a cut in Labor’s margin in Badcoe from 5.6% to 2.0%.
Tasmania
Local pollster EMRS has published its quarterly state voting intention poll, which reflects Newspoll in finding voters to be over the moon with Premier Peter Gutwein, who came to the job just in time for COVID-19 to hit the fan when Will Hodgman retired in January. Over three polls, the Liberal vote has progressed from 43% to 52% to 54%; Labor has gone from 34% to 28% to 24%; and the Greens have gone from 12% to 10% and back again. Gutwein now leads Labor’s Rebecca White by 70% to 23% as preferred premier, out from 63-26 last time (and 41-39 to White on Gutwein’s debut in March). The poll was conducted by phone from August 18 to 24.
Northern Territory
With the last dregs of counting being conducted from now through Friday, fully our of the 25 seats in the Northern Territory remain in doubt following the election the Saturday before last, with current margins ranging from seven to 18 votes. However, the actual election result is well and truly done and dusted, with Labor having 13 seats in the bag. You can follow the action on my dedicated post, which includes live updating of results.
Australian Capital Territory
Not that I have anything particular to say about it at this point, but the Australian Capital Territory is the next cab off the election rank with polling day on October 17, a fortnight before Queensland.
New Zealand
Do Kiwi nationalists complain of being treated like the seventh state in Australia? Well, they can now, as I have a new Roy Morgan poll to relate ahead of their election which will, like that of the ACT, be held on October 17, with the originally anticipated date of September 19 being pushed back due to its recent COVID-19 flare-up. If this poll is any guide, this may have knocked a coat of paint off Labour without in any way endangering Jacinda Ardern’s government.
Labour is now at 48%, down from 53.5% last month, with National up two to 28.5%. The Greens are up from 8% to 11.5%, and do notably better out of this poll series than rivals Colmar Brunton and Reid Research, which show them struggling to keep their head above the 5% threshold that guarantees them seats in parliment under the country’s mixed-member proportional representation system. New Zealand First remain well below it at 2.5%, albeit that this is up a point on last month, while the free-market liberal ACT New Zealand party is clear of it on 6%, down half a point. The poll was conducted by phone from a sample of 897 “during August”.
Rational Leftist
“Yeah, you know what’s really going to propel Labor into government at the next election? Cringey portmanteaus.”
It worked for “Brexit” – a cringey portmanteau if ever there was one. 😉
Morrison should not be bellowing about leadership
Morrison’s leadership – Go on holidays and leave Australians to defend for themselves
Fulvio Sammut says:
Wednesday, September 2, 2020 at 2:07 pm
And when Covid recedes in Victoria and the second wave ramps up and engulfs NSW, where will Morrison take his holidays?
Don’t wish a break out in NSW. What I want to see is success all round.
lizzie
Is this the chap ?
mundo says:
Wednesday, September 2, 2020 at 2:10 pm
Morrison and his cronies will use their superior bellowing to try to drown out Labor’s messages
Labor has a message?
—————————–
Labor has a lot of messages , hence why they need to counter being bellowed out
Scott @ #287 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 2:03 pm
‘Morrison is deliberately lying in the house of reps claiming that the recession was caused by the corona virus’
How can that be?
Surely the opposition is in the house?
Rational Leftist,
‘The Bill Australia doesn’t need’ worked pretty well last election.
Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, September 2, 2020 at 2:10 pm
..
Albanese needs to detach Labor from Fitzgibbons fossil fuel cartel and end the Green wedge.
For all his un-helpful comments Fitzgibbons hasn’t come close to doing the damage to the environmental movement as that done by the Greens.
Scott @ #305 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 2:13 pm
Does Labor need bellowing lessons?
Australia’s oldest political party can’t deal with a bloviating government?
I don’t wish it, frednk.
But I am a realist.
I think Fberg is feeling it. He;s not so excited in QT today.
Fulvio Sammut says:
Wednesday, September 2, 2020 at 2:15 pm
I don’t wish it, frednk.
But I am a realist
Yes living on the edge is a worry. And this is for sure what they are doing,
No, decades of euroskepticism and anti-immigrant sentiment was what worked there.
poroti
There was a certain roundness of the face, yes. 🙂
I think Fberg might be more emotionally distraught by the knowledge that his hair transplant procedure isn’t working than by the economic suffering of the Nation.
mundo says:
Wednesday, September 2, 2020 at 2:15 pm
Does Labor need bellowing lessons?
Australia’s oldest political party can’t deal with a bloviating government?
Problem with the current labor leadership is , appeasing the media
south
Seeing the ‘Back in Black’ coffee mug in his office would be a bit of a downer 🙂
Anyone else get the feeling that the Brits will walk, covering their noses, away from the stench that is the mad monk?
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/he-is-a-misogynist-british-mps-round-on-abbott-ahead-of-trade-job-20200902-p55rhp.html
Tony Smith has been a teensy bit more authoritarian towards the Libs, recently. Could that be a little sign of which way the wind is blowing?
Edit added.
[Smith: I am just going to say to the Treasurer, it doesn’t matter. The rules are quite clear and I’m trying to maintain order in the house and that can’t just be when it suits those on my right. ]
Kronomex
If they have any sense, they will.
Lizzie,
No, he just knows there’s a lot of people out of work watching daytime TV and probably doesn’t want rocks thrown at him when walking around his electorate.
ItzaDream @ #292 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 2:06 pm
Elon Musk is always long on promise, but often short on delivery 🙁
I do trust that Frydenberg’s trichologist has a refund policy.
To something Lizzy quoted a while back :
Perhaps a pedantic note, but what exactly differentiates a “symbolic” amendment to a “substantive” one? Is there some Parliamentary process that separates them? (Paul Karp made a point of italicising it so presumably it means something).
Player One
says:
Wednesday, September 2, 2020 at 2:28 pm
Elon Musk is always long on promise, but often short on delivery
Welcome to our next Prime Minister
Tesla have been very clear they will not be declaring dividends to shareholders, instead reinvesting any profits into the company. And the share price has increased tenfold in a year.
Now, you could argue he isnt delivering money to shareholders. But if you bought shares a year ago and sold today, you could shout the bar and nobody would argue the toss on Musk delivering.
Also, it could easily be argued he has been a significant factor (the largest factor?) in bringing electric cars to the mass market. I would argue that is delivering.
If there’s ever a time for a SSO offensive from Albanese, it’s now.
With a 50/50 poll you’d think that the blind Laborite partisans wouldn’t have been so triggered on ‘Teh Greens’ for a few days.
The level of it’s ‘teh Greens’ posts seems inversely proportional to the facts of the matter.
No duopoly deals on donations then?
Are partisans really going nuts over the fed ALP over riding even the Qld ALP’s own efforts on limiting donations and pushing through actual fed LNP policy on donations? With an apparently cynical amendment to delay it until after the Qld election?
Symbolic – they don’t really care, just a stunt or sentiment
Labor to pass Coalition bill watering down state donation laws despite Queensland opposition
Federal Labor overrules its own Queensland branch objections to support law overriding state disclosure rules
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/02/labor-support-coalition-watering-down-state-donation-disclosure-laws-despite-queensland-opposition
The finance minister, Mathias Cormann, said the government “intends to act” on the call for separate campaign accounts and is “open to considering” a delayed start date.
Lambie told Guardian Australia while she is “not shocked” the Liberals would further weaken donations laws she is “shocked that the Labor party would back them in”.
“I’m going to be talking to them this morning and trying to get the Labor party to see the sense in not undermining our already weak-tea donations laws even further.”
Julie-Ann Campbell, the Queensland Labor state secretary, said: “As it stands, the bill would erode transparency at a federal level, and undermine the integrity agenda of the Palaszczuk state Labor government.”
At the time the crooks were busy shooting each other. It seem unjust the police are in trouble for trying to stop it.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/with-cops-in-the-gun-royal-commission-holds-fire-20200902-p55rny.html
Family members sent this to me and weren’t overly impressed (sorry, I have yet to learn how to code things to embed them in the comments properly).
https://www.facebook.com/7NewsAustralia/videos/357640168571078
Basically, these doctors don’t actually have a plan to handle it any differently, they just don’t like the lockdown because it costs money. Also, nurses are expendable.
Quoll,
They followed the Parliamentary processes in order to amend the Bill. The Greens were more than welcome to support it. They chose not to.
So, in other words, the difference isn’t anything objective so much as it is an effort to discredit things Labor put forward that the Greens agree with but want credit for?
Quoll
The Greens sink any reform. The greens riding shot greens for the Liberals.
Rex Douglas @ #327 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 2:45 pm
I hate to say it but I suspect Albo is afraid of how Scrooter would react. In other words, I don’t think Albo’s up to it just now. Morrison would just go full feral killer mouth and that’s all we’d see on the telly tonight.
Rach? Rhapsody on a Theme of Paganini?
Fryenburg is smiling at Morrison for not condemning Abbott
Simon Katich @ #334 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 2:53 pm
Le Sacre du Printemps?
It seems that frydenburg agrees with Abbott
Josh has to be careful that he doesn’t get too stressed or his newly implanted hair will start jumping scalp.
If facebook bans news sites from its platform in Australia, it seems to me, that will reduce the amount of misinformation in posts.
Is this the recession Australia had to have?
Some of Morrison’s lies are so transparent.
Albanese needs to go, he gave hunt a dixie questions ,On behalf of the libs/nats propaganda unit (newsltd)
Tony Smith has been the best speaker I have personally seen in action.
Is have always viewed the early 1990’s as my personal bad luck period.
1990 Pyramid bank collapsed with all my savings
1991 Husband made redundant on the day son was born and interest rate on mortgage increased to 27.4 percent. (Pyramid administrators would not allow you to refinance with another bank and kept raising rate)
1992 Kennett started his war on public hospitals and nurses in particular.
It is only with the benefit of hindsight and plenty of time to reflect since retirement that I realise how little effort I made to understand what was happening politically at the time. In my defenc it was not lack of interest back a lack of time as during this period I was working and studying as a way out of the mess these events caused in my life. It is for this reason I encourage my children to keep themselves abreast of current affairs at all times not just in the lead up to an election.
I tell you, there is a change in attitude.
Guardian
Under what head of power does the Commonwealth purport to overrule State political donation laws?
Dutton has been sitting their quietly , his body language shows he is not happy with Morrison allowing members of his own party in every question reminding people of Australia that they brought on the recession
Can anyone answer a question for me.
When the ratings agencies look at Australia’s figures, do they take into account the savings in the superannuation funds as part of the broader picture of how our economy is tracking. If they do would the large withdrawal through early access make any material difference to how they view Australia’s economic stability.