The week that was

Party turmoil in Victoria and Queensland, state and territory seat entitlements for the next federal parliament determined, and more polling on attitudes to demonstrations in the United States.

After a particularly eventful week, a whole bunch of electorally relevant news to report:

• The last official population updates have confirmed next month’s official determination of how many seats each state and territory will be entitled to in the next parliament will cause the abolition of seats in Western Australia and the Northern Territory, and the creation of a new one in Victoria for the second consecutive term. Antony Green offers detailed consideration of how the redistributions might look, suggesting Victoria’s will most likely result in the creation of another safe Labor seat in Melbourne’s outer north-west, while Western Australia’s could either mash together Hasluck and Burt in eastern Perth, or abolish the safe Liberal south-of-the-river seat of Tangney, with knock-on effects that would weaken Labor’s position in Fremantle and/or Burt.

• In the wake of the 60 Minutes/The Age expose on Adem Somyurek’s branch stacking activities on Sunday, Labor’s national executive has taken control of all the Victorian branch’s federal and state preselections for the next three years. Steve Bracks and Jenny Macklin have been brought in to serve as administrators until January, and an audit of the branch’s 16,000 members will be conducted to ensure that are genuine consenting members and paid their own fees.

• Ipsos has published polling on the recent demonstrations in the United States from fifteen countries, which found Australians to be supportive of what were specified as “peaceful protests in the US” and disapproving of Donald Trump’s handling of them, although perhaps in slightly lesser degree than other more liberal democracies. Two outliers were India and Russia, which produced some seemingly anomalous results: the former had a strangely high rating for Trump and the latter relatively low support for the protests, yet both were uniquely favourable towards the notion that “more violent protests are an appropriate response”.

• The Tasmanian government has announced the periodical Legislative Council elections for the seats of Huon and Rosevears will be held on August 1, having been delayed from their normally allotted time of the first Tuesday in May.

In Queensland, where the next election is a little over four months away:

• After floating the possibility of an election conducted entirely by post, the Queensland government announced this week that the October 31 state election will be conducted in a more-or-less normal fashion. However, pre-poll voting is being all but actively encouraged, to the extent that Attorney-General Yvette D’Ath says there will be an “election period” rather than an election day. This will mean “more pre-poll locations, longer pre-poll hours, and more pre-poll voting days in the two weeks prior to the election”.

• The Liberal National Party opposition was thrown into turmoil last week after the Courier-Mail ($) received internal polling showing Labor leading 51-49 in Redlands, 52-48 in Gaven, 55-45 in Mansfield and 58-42 in inner urban Mount Ommaney. The parties were tied in the Sunshine Coast hinterland seat of Glass House, while the LNP led by 52-48 in the Gold Coast seat of Currumbin, which it recently retained by a similar margin at a by-election. Frecklington’s supporters pointed the finger at the state branch president, Dave Hutchinson, who was reportedly told by Frecklington that his position was untenable after Clive Palmer hired him as a property consultant in January. The party room unanimously affirmed its support for Frecklington on Monday, as mooted rival David Crisafulli ruled out a challenge ahead of the election.

• The Queensland parliament this week passed an array of electoral law changes including campaign spending caps of $92,000 per candidate and limitations on signage at polling places. The changes have been criticised ($) by the Liberal National Party and Katter’s Australian Party, who complain that union advertising will now dominate at polling booths, and that the laws was pushed through with indecent haste on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,922 comments on “The week that was”

Comments Page 4 of 39
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  1. If the Territory Alliance and CLP can form a Coalition they may be a show.

    That’s a very big ‘If’. The Territory Alliance were formed when the CLP tore itself apart.

  2. “ AE

    The Coalition love that Labor is simply “Liberal lite” and roll over so easily.

    Hat tip to you.”

    You’re wrong lil’ Green pony, on both counts.

    Tags like ‘liberal lite’, ‘lib/lab, same/same’ and ‘sellout central’ only excite watermelons.

    The LNP actually fear Labor being perceived in the community as a more sensible, moderate and caring brand to what they are peddling.

    Because when that occurs a Hawke or Rudd Government happens (I would even argue that much of Whitlam’s success was his pitch to the middle class of a whole heap of goodies that ‘the growth dividend’ and not socialist taxes was going to pay for).

    But don’t worry lil’ pony. ScoMo has a bunch of carrots for Jen and the girls to feed you on their next family outing to Calmsey Hill Farm.

  4. So exactly, how many winnable seats are there for the Greens in HoR seats?

    How long has Labor existed? How many First Nation HoR parliamentarians does Labor have or ever had? How long did it take?

    What a pity, the usual suspects can no longer bang on about the lack of Greens FN representation?

    So with nine Greens senators how does one represent the entire diversity of Australians? Who to include? Who to exclude?

    Currently, the Greens have a muslim and a First Nation senator, as well as the youngest sitting senator who is in a wheelchair as well as a majority of its senators are women numbering 6.

  5. lizzie

    Bringing down Labor will not necessarily “shatter the duopoly”. It will merely entrench the power of the LNP.

    Unfortunately the destruction of the social democrat / workers parties is a world-wide phenomenon that has been happening for several decades.

    I watched this happen in France, Germany, Hungary and Brazil, where I have longstanding research links.

    Any old mass-movement party (including the Conservative side) attracts its share of the power-hungry and corrupt. The media, rightly, ferrets out the corruption. The people are horrified, and the conservative side comes to power.

    The problems then really start. The current crop of (formerly) conservative parties have no compunction about using all the tools available to them in government to go after the now-opposition social democrat party, when then loses support, leaving basically a one-party state with a right-wing administration run for the rich and powerful.

    Viktor Orban of Hungary is particularly open about this, and worryingly friendly with Tony Abbott.

    So, I am very much in favour of highlighting branch stacking in parties without fear or favour, and really want to see it stamped out of the ALP, even if there is a short-term political hit.

    Where we have a problem in Australia is that these practices are not being called out without fear or favour, so to the unengaged voter, only the Labor party as a problem.

    In this we are just catching up with the rest of the world. I fully expect that within two years all Australian state and federal government will be coalition, as between November 1975 and March 1976.

    The difference now is that I do not see an easy way back from right wing control of the levers of power.

  7. On Monopolies.

    I would make it very strict law preventing them. When unavoidable make them Government owned statutory bodies like Qantas The Commonwealth Bank Telecom and the ABC were or Co Operatives.

    eg. No huge supermarket chains to dominate the market in a duopoly. We don’t have a population in the millions that enable competition amongst such chains. Instead have many little grocery chains.

    The same goes for media. Eg. Lots of little radio stations not one chain running stations from Sydney.

  9. Douglas and Milko

    Unfortunately you speak a lot of sense. The LNP is slowly gaining control of much of the social structure now. If only it were not so.

  10. ‘Pegasus says:
    Saturday, June 20, 2020 at 12:28 pm

    So exactly, how many winnable seats are there for the Greens in HoR seats?

    How long has Labor existed? How many First Nation HoR parliamentarians does Labor have or ever had? How long did it take?

    What a pity, the usual suspects can no longer bang on about the lack of Greens FN representation?

    So with nine Greens senators how does one represent the entire diversity of Australians? Who to include? Who to exclude?

    Currently, the Greens have a muslim and a First Nation senator, as well as the youngest sitting senator who is in a wheelchair as well as a majority of its senators are women numbering 6.’

    And the whole sorry mess of them can’t get a population and migration policy off the ground.

  12. The Greens party need to find a way to cut through on questioning why LNP and Labor partisans continue to support parties neck deep in corruption and anti-social practices.

  14. It obviously hadn’t even sunk in for some PB partisans, Lidia Thorpe has been announced as the new Vic Senator to replace RDN, by popular demand of the members.

    The inane commentary of the obvious partisans is surely why not to bother here usually

    Most of the other Vic Greens senate candidates, all non-indigenous I believe, seemed like they could replace those furniture filling non-indigenous party hacks of Lib/Lab currently in the senate, for the benefit of the country as well. Was my implication.
    An off the cuff comment on the mediocrity of some current parliamentary incumbents twisted into an inane and idiotic trope on PB by blind partisans, who’d believe that could happen?

  15. Trump’s personal law firm the Department of Justice steps up to the plate again to shield their client. What timing of the announcement, late on a Friday night!

    The Justice Department abruptly announced on Friday that it had replaced the United States attorney in Manhattan, Geoffrey S. Berman, the powerful federal prosecutor whose office sent President Trump’s former personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, to prison and who has been investigating Mr. Trump’s current personal lawyer, Rudolph W. Giuliani.

    The announcement that Mr. Berman would be replaced was made with no notice by Attorney General William P. Barr, who said the president intended to nominate as Mr. Berman’s successor Jay Clayton, current chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/nyregion/us-attorney-manhattan-trump.html

  16. ‘Exactly what politics in Australia needs’: Lidia Thorpe to be next Greens senator for Victoria

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/lidia-thorpe-to-be-next-greens-senator-for-victoria-20200620-p554i2.html

    Ms Thorpe said she would pursue a treaty with Indigenous Australians in Federal Parliament and would fight to raise the age of criminal responsibility in Australia, which currently sits at 10 years-of-age.

    She would also push for a “Green New Deal,” referring to a proposed package of legislation in the United States which aims to slow climate change and economic inequality.

    “We need a Treaty that needs to be internationally scrutinised under the Geneva Convention of treaties so not just a bureaucratic treaty, a real treaty that will end the injustice that Aboriginal people in this country face.

    “The Green New Deal is what everyone needs to know about, it can be part of the treaty process, it’s about addressing the inequality that his country has with so many people and so many communities … and we need to address the climate catastrophe that we’re all facing.”

    Ms Thorpe said it was time for the county to “unite” and she did not want her contribution to be reduced to a “black or white thing”.

    “I come from the hard knox, I come from the Collingwood flats, I left school at 14 I survived family violence and here I am.
    :::
    “From being the first Aboriginal woman elected to Victorian parliament, to winning renters rights, forestry protections and LGBTIQ support, Lidia has an incredible track record of fighting for change.”

  17. Labor had the FIRST Disabled wheelchair-bound Member of federal parliament.

    Labor had the Second First Nations Senator of the currently extant major political parties. Nova Peris. Who was also the first female First Nations Senator. Labor have since chose two more, Malandirri Macarthy and Professor Pat Dodson. The Liberal Party chose Neville Bonner from Queensland who was the first and Aden Ridgeway for the Australian Democrats was the groundbreaking first for a Cross Bench party, even while The Greens looked on and did nothing.

    Labor had the FIRST female First Nations Lower House Member of Parliament.

    The Liberals have the first Indigenous Cabinet member and Minister for Indigenous Affairs.

    The Greens have a lot of catching up to do.

  18. Quoll @ #164 Saturday, June 20th, 2020 – 12:45 pm

    It obviously hadn’t even sunk in for some PB partisans, Lidia Thorpe has been announced as the new Vic Senator to replace RDN, by popular demand of the members.

    The inane commentary of the obvious partisans is surely why not to bother here usually

    Most of the other Vic Greens senate candidates, all non-indigenous I believe, seemed like they could replace those furniture filling non-indigenous party hacks of Lib/Lab currently in the senate, for the benefit of the country as well. Was my implication.
    An off the cuff comment on the mediocrity of some current parliamentary incumbents twisted into an inane and idiotic trope on PB by blind partisans, who’d believe that could happen?

    Please accept my most humblest apologies, oh great and exalted Lord Quoll, for having been in hospital recently and unable to keep up with my homework of Greens’ party minutiae.

    Dipstick.

  21. Confessionssays: Saturday, June 20, 2020 at 12:46 pm

    Trump’s personal law firm the Department of Justice steps up to the plate again to shield their client. What timing of the announcement, late on a Friday night!

    *******************************************************

    ‘Republic is in grave danger’: Trump criticized for ‘laying the groundwork for a fascist America’ with US attorney replacement

    On Friday evening, U.S. Attorney Geoffrey Berman of the Southern District of New York — a key figure in the investigations against President Donald Trump’s business associates — announced he was stepping down, and Attorney General William Barr put forward as his replacement Jay Clayton, a lawyer who has represented one of Trump’s major creditors.

    To be replaced by Jay Clayton. Clayton represented Deutsche Bank and defended them in the massive Russian money laundering scandal.

    There is a criminal investigation into Deutsche Bank occurring in SDNY.

    Deutsche Bank is Trump’s biggest lender.

    — Erik Halvorsen (@erikhalvorsen18) June 20, 2020

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/06/republic-is-in-grave-danger-trump-criticized-for-laying-the-groundwork-for-a-fascist-america-with-us-attorney-replacement/

  23. Quoll
    So you think its silly to point out that new senator Thorpe lost what is seen as a Green heartland electorate and to question her bizarre contribution last week by suggesting the renaming of Victoria despite the fact Queen Victoria was not known to be racist in the slightest.

  24. I do wonder what the backstory is on Berman’s departure and suspect this is close to the mark.

    Tom Nichols@RadioFreeTom
    ·
    32m
    At this point, the way you can tell when U.S. attorneys are getting near to discovering major crimes is when Bill Barr fires them.

  25. Pegasus @ #169 Saturday, June 20th, 2020 – 12:53 pm

    Power vacuum: Can the Labor Party really clean up its factional mess?

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/power-vacuum-can-the-labor-party-really-clean-up-its-factional-mess-20200618-p5542z.html

    No greater opportunity presents for the Greens party to cash in on the utterly diabolical state of the LNP and Labor parties re their corruption and incompetence.

    Can the Greens party cut through to ignorant and hypocritical mainstream voters who mind-numbingly vote for their LibLab teams …?

  28. AE

    Liberal lite is correct.

    As I can note about all the tribalism instead of discussing issues.

    I exclude Lizzie and D & M’s conversation.
    They are talking about the reality that being Liberal Lite has let the LNP take over the power structures.

    Of course given timing others may join that conversation. I put my opinion in about monopolies. You don’t have to be a communist to see how the dominance of a few in owning everything is destroying our ability to have a democracy as institutional structures are undermined.

  29. Reading that piece by Sumeyya Ilanbey, I’d say there was a lot of posturing going on within VicLabor which may bear no relationship to reality. It’s all wishin and hopin from a few big egos.

  30. Confessionssays: Saturday, June 20, 2020 at 1:00 pm

    I do wonder what the backstory is on Berman’s departure and suspect this is close to the mark.

    Tom Nichols@RadioFreeTom

    At this point, the way you can tell when U.S. attorneys are getting near to discovering major crimes is when Bill Barr fires them.

    *****************************************************************

    John Dean @JohnWDean

    Wow! This reeks of putting the fix in to protect Donald, Rudy and the kids! But SDNY line attorneys will not go away silently if this is happening!

    Berman’s office has been conducting a criminal investigation of President Trump’s lawyer, Rudolph W. Giuliani, in a campaign finance case that has already led to charges against two of Giuliani’s associates.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-administration-replaces-manhattan-us-attorney/2020/06/19/acae9348-b298-11ea-8758-bfd1d045525a_story.html

  31. Douglas and Milko says:
    Saturday, June 20, 2020 at 12:14 pm
    C@t,
    Just saw your earlier post about links between Wuhan and Milan – spot on.

    The report from Milan confirms the virus was circulating there in December, as it was in Spain, France and Iran. It’s significant because it discounts the proposition that it arose in December in the Wuhan wet market. The vector/s remain unknown. The sequencing should eventually reveal more about this….but we will likely never know the identity and location of the first case.

  32. guytaur

    I am not agreeing that Labor is “Liberal Lite”. That is just a label imposed by those who want to denigrate Labor. For example, it is obvious that if Labor were in power they would be dealing quite differently with the “coronavirus recession”.

  33. lizzie @ #179 Saturday, June 20th, 2020 – 1:08 pm

    Reading that piece by Sumeyya Ilanbey, I’d say there was a lot of posturing going on within VicLabor which may bear no relationship to reality. It’s all wishin and hopin from a few big egos.

    Link please? I have to go out to the chemist and may not be able to find it when I get back. 🙂

  36. The real reason why the ALP and LNP sound similar is because when in office they are briefed by the same so called experts and public servants. When there is a change of government it is only the minister’s office that goes unless the new minister changes the departmental sec and other senior people which can take time depending on how fast or hard the new government goes on replacing people.

  37. Lizzie

    Liberal lite is accepting you must have a surplus at all costs.

    I agree with you as we saw during the GFC. My point is though even while doing that Labor accepted the neo liberal framing of having to have a surplus.

    That let the LNP argue all debt is bad in all circumstances with credibility.

    Labor has to change its framing away from that neo liberal ideological better economic manager narrative. If it doesn’t it will always be Liberal Lite.

  38. nath @ #184 Saturday, June 20th, 2020 – 1:17 pm

    I hope the new seat in Victoria can make it easier for The Greens to pick up a second seat in Victoria.

    Tell ’em they’re dreaming! From the eminence grise himself:

    the creation of a new one in Victoria for the second consecutive term. Antony Green offers detailed consideration of how the redistributions might look, suggesting Victoria’s will most likely result in the creation of another safe Labor seat in Melbourne’s outer north-west

  40. ian hickie
    @ian_hickie
    Proposed overhaul nothing short of radical; My one regret in a lifetime of education & public work was not to have had an arts education prior to medicine. ⁦

    Some of the troglodytes in the LNP (and perhaps in One Nation) typify the conservative thinkers described here by Tim Soutphommasane (who is often mocked by them).

    There’s nothing wrong with the government seeking to meet skills shortages. Offering incentives for students to study in areas such as health, education and science is entirely appropriate.

    But these moves go well beyond that. They have the clear aim of undermining the humanities and social sciences – the foundations of a modern liberal arts education. They are designed, in other words, to remake universities.

    This is the latest development for a sector caught in the escalation of the culture wars. The government changed the rules to its $130 billion JobKeeper wage subsidy three times, in order to ensure no university could claim it. Smashed by a decline in international student revenue due to coronavirus travel restrictions, universities face a difficult future without government assistance.

    It’s clear, though, that sympathy isn’t forthcoming. Many members of the government harbour suspicions of “tenured radicals” stalking the corridors of academe. Conservatives have come to think of universities as incubators of progressive thinking and so-called political correctness.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/proposed-overhaul-of-university-fees-nothing-short-of-radical-20200619-p55482.html?btis

  42. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, June 20, 2020 at 1:21 pm

    nath @ #184 Saturday, June 20th, 2020 – 1:17 pm

    I hope the new seat in Victoria can make it easier for The Greens to pick up a second seat in Victoria.

    Tell ’em they’re dreaming! From the eminence grise himself:

    the creation of a new one in Victoria for the second consecutive term. Antony Green offers detailed consideration of how the redistributions might look, suggesting Victoria’s will most likely result in the creation of another safe Labor seat in Melbourne’s outer north-west
    ___________________________
    Creating another safe Labor seat in the NW might still impact on Cooper and Wills somehow. We will see.

  43. guytaur

    I absolutely agree that Labor has been wedged by this surplus fetish, pursued endlessly by the conservative media. Perhaps the revolution caused by Covid will break the spell.

  45. I am not sure but I suspect visits with returnees and family members are not permitted.
    I was involved with a compassionate exemption where a returnee who was covid negative wished to visit a dying husband. Unlike NZ, the requirements to achieve this were breath taking in their severity and included a police escort from hotel to hospital

  47. Nath
    It is possible but the AEC helped the Greens in McNamara only for the Greens to barely shifted their primary vote. It is possible the AEC will shift more of Stonnington into McNamara which might improve the Green’s chances and there is a chance the AEC could shift Melbourne across the Yarra since they will be adding a seat to the north-western suburbs so Melbourne probably can’t go north or west then there is the sometimes mooted idea of splitting Wills and Cooper into two electorates separated by Bell St which might favor the Greens.

  48. Mexicanbeemer
    says:
    Saturday, June 20, 2020 at 1:28 pm
    Nath
    It is possible but the AEC helped the Greens in McNamara only for the Greens to barely shifted their primary vote. It is possible the AEC will shift more of Stonnington into McNamara which might improve the Green’s chances and there is a chance the AEC could shift Melbourne across the Yarra since they will be adding a seat to the north-western suburbs so Melbourne probably can’t go north or west then there is the sometimes mooted idea of splitting Wills and Cooper into two electorates separated by Bell St which might favor the Greens.
    ___________________________________
    If the Greens come out with 3 seats it will be marvellous.

  49. BKsays: Saturday, June 20, 2020 at 1:22 pm

    This is heading for some fun times! Posted just a few minutes ago.

    **************************************************

    Thanks for the Berman post, BK – his own words sure put a different perspective on what sounds like another Trump/Barr *hit* ……. must be getting too close to the truth ….

    He says he found out he was “stepping down” by reading it in a press release

  50. nath @ #192 Saturday, June 20th, 2020 – 1:23 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, June 20, 2020 at 1:21 pm

    nath @ #184 Saturday, June 20th, 2020 – 1:17 pm

    I hope the new seat in Victoria can make it easier for The Greens to pick up a second seat in Victoria.

    Tell ’em they’re dreaming! From the eminence grise himself:

    the creation of a new one in Victoria for the second consecutive term. Antony Green offers detailed consideration of how the redistributions might look, suggesting Victoria’s will most likely result in the creation of another safe Labor seat in Melbourne’s outer north-west
    ___________________________
    Creating another safe Labor seat in the NW might still impact on Cooper and Wills somehow. We will see.

    Probably end up spliting McEwan which has had large population growth and is getting unwieldy across it’s large area.

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