The week that was

Party turmoil in Victoria and Queensland, state and territory seat entitlements for the next federal parliament determined, and more polling on attitudes to demonstrations in the United States.

After a particularly eventful week, a whole bunch of electorally relevant news to report:

• The last official population updates have confirmed next month’s official determination of how many seats each state and territory will be entitled to in the next parliament will cause the abolition of seats in Western Australia and the Northern Territory, and the creation of a new one in Victoria for the second consecutive term. Antony Green offers detailed consideration of how the redistributions might look, suggesting Victoria’s will most likely result in the creation of another safe Labor seat in Melbourne’s outer north-west, while Western Australia’s could either mash together Hasluck and Burt in eastern Perth, or abolish the safe Liberal south-of-the-river seat of Tangney, with knock-on effects that would weaken Labor’s position in Fremantle and/or Burt.

• In the wake of the 60 Minutes/The Age expose on Adem Somyurek’s branch stacking activities on Sunday, Labor’s national executive has taken control of all the Victorian branch’s federal and state preselections for the next three years. Steve Bracks and Jenny Macklin have been brought in to serve as administrators until January, and an audit of the branch’s 16,000 members will be conducted to ensure that are genuine consenting members and paid their own fees.

• Ipsos has published polling on the recent demonstrations in the United States from fifteen countries, which found Australians to be supportive of what were specified as “peaceful protests in the US” and disapproving of Donald Trump’s handling of them, although perhaps in slightly lesser degree than other more liberal democracies. Two outliers were India and Russia, which produced some seemingly anomalous results: the former had a strangely high rating for Trump and the latter relatively low support for the protests, yet both were uniquely favourable towards the notion that “more violent protests are an appropriate response”.

• The Tasmanian government has announced the periodical Legislative Council elections for the seats of Huon and Rosevears will be held on August 1, having been delayed from their normally allotted time of the first Tuesday in May.

In Queensland, where the next election is a little over four months away:

• After floating the possibility of an election conducted entirely by post, the Queensland government announced this week that the October 31 state election will be conducted in a more-or-less normal fashion. However, pre-poll voting is being all but actively encouraged, to the extent that Attorney-General Yvette D’Ath says there will be an “election period” rather than an election day. This will mean “more pre-poll locations, longer pre-poll hours, and more pre-poll voting days in the two weeks prior to the election”.

• The Liberal National Party opposition was thrown into turmoil last week after the Courier-Mail ($) received internal polling showing Labor leading 51-49 in Redlands, 52-48 in Gaven, 55-45 in Mansfield and 58-42 in inner urban Mount Ommaney. The parties were tied in the Sunshine Coast hinterland seat of Glass House, while the LNP led by 52-48 in the Gold Coast seat of Currumbin, which it recently retained by a similar margin at a by-election. Frecklington’s supporters pointed the finger at the state branch president, Dave Hutchinson, who was reportedly told by Frecklington that his position was untenable after Clive Palmer hired him as a property consultant in January. The party room unanimously affirmed its support for Frecklington on Monday, as mooted rival David Crisafulli ruled out a challenge ahead of the election.

• The Queensland parliament this week passed an array of electoral law changes including campaign spending caps of $92,000 per candidate and limitations on signage at polling places. The changes have been criticised ($) by the Liberal National Party and Katter’s Australian Party, who complain that union advertising will now dominate at polling booths, and that the laws was pushed through with indecent haste on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,922 comments on “The week that was”

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  1. The 10th Anniversary of the coup against Rudd is a good time to remind us all of the kind of politics that Bill Shorten helped manufacture. His role in gutting Rudd, and then turning on Gillard, set the tone for subsequent coups in the Liberal party as well. In the 80s, the idea that an ambitious backbencher would use his factional power to catapult himself up the pecking order by disposing of a PM, or 2, was unthinkable. After B.A Santamaria, I can think of no one who has done more damage to the Labor Party than Bill Shorten.

  2. BK

    I heard a Trump fan overnight who intends to go to Trump’s rally. She ‘adores her President’ and believes that the figures on Covid-19 are fake, because people are dying of other diseases such as diabetes, pneumonia etc and they are all labelled coronavirus to frighten people.

  3. Not agreeing with some policies then becomes a matter of voting for ‘the lesser of two evils”, voting for the party that will do the most good and least harm.
    The asylum seeker issue upsets me to the core but of the two major parties, the LNP is the one of ‘indefinite‘ detention, not Labor.
    Imo, it’s all a matter of baby steps and not scaring the horses, and I’d put money on my conviction that had Labor been voted in, most asylum seekers would be in NZ , etc. by now.
    They would certainly have been spared the cruelty of Dutton.
    And no, I’m not buying into the Greens/Labor/LNP wars…much too tribal and pointless.
    The sun is shining so off to enjoy my day.
    Cud Chewer, if you are lurking, hope all is ok with you!!

  4. Seems serendipitous to have Lidia Thorpe in the house now at this time

    Pity there weren’t more, of what seemed like a bunch of good candidates, eligible to replace some of the moribund from other parties who are just filling up the furniture as well.

    All the best to her

  5. Quoll @ #109 Saturday, June 20th, 2020 – 9:03 am

    Seems serendipitous to have Lidia Thorpe in the house now at this time

    Pity there weren’t more, of what seemed like a bunch of good candidates, eligible to replace some of the moribund from other parties who are just filling up the furniture as well.

    All the best to her

    Of course Linda Burney, Malarndirri McCarthy and Pat Dodson don’t count and haven’t said anything!

  6. nath says:
    Saturday, June 20, 2020 at 10:40 am
    The 10th Anniversary of the coup against Rudd is a good time to remind us all of the kind of politics that Bill Shorten helped manufacture. His role in gutting Rudd, and then turning on Gillard, set the tone for subsequent coups in the Liberal party as well. In the 80s, the idea that an ambitious backbencher would use his factional power to catapult himself up the pecking order by disposing of a PM, or 2, was unthinkable. After B.A Santamaria, I can think of no one who has done more damage to the Labor Party than Bill Shorten.
    _______________________
    To paraphrase the US military in Nam, Littlefinger has destroyed the party to save the party.

  7. Good Morning

    You know that posters have Green hate and not an ounce of analysis when they say the Greens have been taken over by socialists. As if thats a bad thing. Of course they can’t get away with saying communists but you know thats what they mean.

    This from posters that belong to a party that uses the word comrade because of its left wing labour roots. The very same socialists.

    Agree with socialists or not. They are for the environment not against it. So to say a dominance by them is a takeover is not to look dispassionately at why their numbers have dominated. I know that I prefer the socialists that believe in democracy to the eco fascists of the right. The anti vaxxer crowd.

    If you want proper analysis do get an idea where people are coming from. Its not like the socialists were a secret cabal trying to corruptly overturn the aims of the party.

  8. Barney

    You show your tribalism.

    Quoll mentioned the Greens and only the Greens in saying its good they have increased representation.
    Quoll did not say Labor has no voices of Indigenous people.

    I thought you would be celebrating more Indigenous voices in the parties.

  9. If there are more loud informed indigenous voices across parties in parliament then they should be able to do more for their people and more in moving the whole country along than ever. Getting past all the usual moribund partisan party political BS and vested interests (donors) like mining companies blowing up their, and the world’s, cultural heritage then.

    I’ll leave it up to people to figure out which MP’s are more restricted in what they can say and do, how they vote, because of moribund party structures and not being able upset their political benefactors and party head kickers.

  10. guytaur says:
    Saturday, June 20, 2020 at 11:18 am
    Barney

    You show your tribalism.

    Quoll mentioned the Greens and only the Greens in saying its good they have increased representation.
    Quoll did not say Labor has no voices of Indigenous people.

    I thought you would be celebrating more indigenous voices in the parties.

    ________________________________

    With the greatest of respect, this is what Quoll said:

    “Pity there weren’t more, of what seemed like a bunch of good candidates, eligible to replace some of the moribund from other parties who are just filling up the furniture as well.”

    The implication was clearly there.

  11. Firefox @ #61 Saturday, June 20th, 2020 – 9:38 am

    You just have to laugh at the desperate attempts by the Laborites here to distract from the utter shambles that their party has become. You’d be far better off facing up to these problems rather than pretending they don’t exist – and don’t tell me that that’s what this “federal intervention” is lol. Oh yeah, lets put the mob that gave us three years of Rudd vs Gillard in charge! Brilliant idea! rofl

    Absolutely. The attitude of “Nothing to see here, move on …” by Labor partisans here on PB is embarrassing for genuinely ideological Labor supporters. The kind of party shenanigans being exposed in Victoria shows precisely why Labor is already unelectable in some states, and now risks becoming unelectable in others.

  12. TPOF

    Thats not saying there are no representatives in Labor. Its just saying their should be more with a party listening to them more.

    A reasonable contribution considering it was talking as much about the LNP Central Alliance and One Nation as well as Labor.

    Edit: The tribalism is seeing it as being only about Labor

  13. https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/06/20/the-week-that-was/comment-page-1/#comment-3428772

    Yeah, I think she is very smart and generally thorough, not sure the move to the ABC and tv is working for her … [If not the AFR, may be she and Michael West could team up.]

    Though we all have distractions, fed up with the bile, off days, I guess.

    Though lately the fog emanating from Versailles on Lake Blwxyz seems to be thicker, Washminister-style repressive democracy on its last legs. Trump-lite on fear, and regressive choices, in money/ pollyTICs/ media spin cycle, instead of hope, policy, competency, services that advance Australia, fair.

    Earlier this week it seemed as if PM 5/ 6 since 2007 – I reckon Mike Baird will be parachuted in late 2021 – Shouty Mchappyclap on a foundation of Bronte slogan bogan, seemed ready to cross over yet another line in just not withdrawing comments made in parliament.

    And then the information warfare/ cybersecurity stuff yesterday, weird.

  14. Don’t understand the ongoing attacks by certain posters here? Labor and Green posters here aren’t obsessing about Tony Abbott or Malcolm Turnbull. Are those attacking Shorten afraid that he might undergo a resurrection like formerly failed Opposition Leader John Howard and lead us all into a golden Shorten Decade?

  15. Michael West

    The blow-out in Government spending on Defence continues unchecked and unabated despite the coronavirus. The bulk of it goes to multinationals who pay little or no tax in this country. Is nobody watching?

  16. Steve

    If the claims are true the attacks on Shorten are in fact a fundamental defence of democracy within the Labor party .

    The leadership factional wars when Labor was in government was indeed the most damaging thing to let the Tories attack Labor with. It took Whitlam style toxicity media to do it. Yet the opening was provided by Labor itself.

  17. Quoll
    If Lidia Thorpe was good at connecting with the community then she would still be the MP for Northcote but the fact she lost what many Greens see as one of their heartland seats and her bizarre idea to change the state’s name raises questions about suitability.

  18. “Absolutely. The attitude of “Nothing to see here, move on …” by Labor partisans here on PB is embarrassing for genuinely ideological Labor supporters. The kind of party shenanigans being exposed in Victoria shows precisely why Labor is already unelectable in some states, and now risks becoming unelectable in others.”

    Dunno, it’s been going on for years and the Victorian ALP has done very well. Do people really care about intra party manoeuvring? It’s when you have financial corruption that it seems to be an electoral problem.

    Also, it’s no great problem having intra party disputes (eg old NSW Conferences) just so long as the Leader wins.

  19. https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/06/20/the-week-that-was/comment-page-2/#comment-3428849

    … given every failed DC/ Westminister approach generally still gets a run downunder, we’re probably still due some Liberal lite a la Bliar in Liebor.
    Surely there’ll some reaction to Trump lite in the FIFO that is Canberra ACT?
    If for sheer theatre alone, not just to break the same same major parties deadlock, I wouldn’t mind seeing a purple coalition of Greens/ Liebor/ independents/ Nationals for a change!
    Then again, it seems unlikely Australia will focus more on learning from countries higher up on the inequality-adjusted Human Development Index, rather than just the Five Eyes/ places that speak English.

  20. History

    The problem is when one person gets to dominate and exclude true democratic voices.
    This is a problem when the public is aware of it. All those articles in the newspapers are not wrong about Labor. Yes they should tell us more about what other parties are up to if its that much of concern outside Labor. As many have mentioned we have not seen the ICAC referred to look into Scott Morrison’s preselection due to media coverage.

    Thats the problem with a hostile media. You have to be transparent and accountable and not get away with anything while other parties fly under the radar.

    Whining about this will only make a difference if Labor does some real media regulation when in government. For starters get in US style break up of monopolies.
    I note the ACCC is considering acting about Google taking over a company monopolising the advertising revenue space.

    So its not that difficult as a government to prevent monopolies forming.
    Keating was right to restrict takeovers in the media. His problem was not just doing a wholistic anti monopoly law for all industries.

  21. I see at the top of the page that Nath reckons Shorten is responsible for PM spills in the LNP. Incredible, of course it had nothing to do with the behaviour or inabilities of the individuals concerned.

  22. Socrates

    “ The SMH editorial says that the federal government should not gut arts degrees to pay for STEM courses.”

    Gutting Arts degree funding is terrible, especially from a cabinet full of holders of those degrees. Yet claiming it will somehow pay for an increase in STEM courses is false. Arts courses are cheap to run, sometimes making a profit. Uni central admins often skim off more than half the fees from teaching departments to pay for executives and grounds projects. STEM courses are expensive to run, often requiring subsidy, so there is no “swap” here. The new fee levels will not reflect real costs. Will they be challenged?

    The total Uni income will not add up either. This is smoke and mirrors; either total government funding must rise or fee places will fall.

    Well spotted.

    I now also know why the maths degree costs have been made so low – so it looks as though STEM is getting a special deal. Only maths is in this category, and maths is notoriously cheap to teach, and has large numbers of students doing first year maths. In universities, maths departments sometimes grumble about having to subsidise lab-based STEM subjects.

  23. 1 new case in NSW – overseas returnee in hotel quarantine.
    For the past month NSW has been doing compulsory testing on Overseas returnees at 10 days in quarantine. The positive results are ~3%

  24. Tehan’s Turkey day 2:

    More on why the Government is plain wrong on the jobs question, and just conducting another boring culture war at the expense of young Australians’ right to affordably choose their future paths:

    https://www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/news/arts-humanities-and-social-science-graduates-resilient-economic-downturns/

    “Of the ten fastest growing sectors in the UK economy, eight employ more graduates from the arts, humanities and social science than other disciplines. They include the well-paid information and communication industry and finance sector”

    The cross-bench will be really important here, they need to sink this for the sake of the basic liberty of younger Australians to choose their own futures without crude and capricious economic penalties. They also need to stand in the way of the governments transparent desire to make law and business more elitist.

  25. lizzie

    Does anyone have more information on the significance of finding evidence of coronavirus in the Italian sewerage before Christmas 2019? Did that come directly from Wuhan?

    Yes, almost certainly. Apparently Wuhan and Milan have a lot of movement of people between them. The link is the fashion industry, which is big in both places.

  26. Here is the exec summary of the UK findings:

    -Graduates of arts, humanities and social sciences are just as resilient to economic upheaval as other graduates and are just as likely to remain employed as STEM graduates during downturns
    -Looking at the total UK workforce, arts, humanities and social science graduates are just as likely to be employed as their STEM counterparts; the 2017 Labour Force Survey shows that 88% of HSS graduates and 89% of STEM graduates were employed in that year
    -Of the ten fastest growing sectors in the UK economy, eight employ more graduates from the arts, humanities and social science than other disciplines. They include the well-paid information and communication industry and finance sector
    -HSS graduates are the backbone of the economy, with the majority working in the UK services sector. The service sector accounts for 81% of the UK’s total economic output and is second only to the US in export value globally
    -HSS graduates will be essential to fill in the workforce gaps of the future, particularly those studying fine arts, history and archaeology, philosophy and theology, geography, sociology and anthropology
    -While the health sector is the dominant destination for recent STEM graduates, HSS graduates choose to work in a wide range of sectors across the economy, including financial services, education, social work, the media and creative industries.

  27. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #111 Saturday, June 20th, 2020 – 11:09 am

    Quoll @ #109 Saturday, June 20th, 2020 – 9:03 am

    Seems serendipitous to have Lidia Thorpe in the house now at this time

    Pity there weren’t more, of what seemed like a bunch of good candidates, eligible to replace some of the moribund from other parties who are just filling up the furniture as well.

    All the best to her

    Of course Linda Burney, Malarndirri McCarthy and Pat Dodson don’t count and haven’t said anything!

    Yeah, they aren’t interested in lamo stunts like Lidia. Just the facts and solid representation of their people in the parliament of Australia:

    Malandirri:

    malarndirri mccarthy
    @Malarndirri19
    ·
    Jun 17
    There are human lives behind the statistics when we hear about Aboriginal deaths in custody. These are the people who hundreds of thousands of Australians walked the streets for. Today I read out as many names as I could in the Senate of First Nations deaths in custody.

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1273123277687468034

    Patrick Dodson
    @SenatorDodson

    Now more than ever, Australia cannot afford to be unreconciled.

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1273168462748299270

    And just about anything Linda Burney says.

    Serious words from serious politicians.

    The Greens really need to learn not to push out their former and only Indigenous MP to just do another one of their long line of lamo stunts. They are simply evidence that The Greens are unprepared to take Indigenous issues seriously and have the sort of deep and reflective conversations with the community that are absolutely necessary at this time in our nation’s history.

  28. The Greens really need to learn not to push out their former and only Indigenous MP to just do another one of their long line of lamo stunts. They are simply evidence that The Greens are unprepared to take Indigenous issues seriously and have the sort of deep and reflectfive conversations with the community that are absolutely necessary at this time in our nation’s history.

    The Greens have a long and proud history of preselecting Aboriginal candidates…..for unwinnable seats.

    If I were the Greens I’d be focusing on increasing the diversity of their partyroom instead of obsessing over the significant gains Labor has made on the issue of gender and cultural diversity among its ranks.

  29. Oakeshott Country @ #133 Saturday, June 20th, 2020 – 11:55 am

    1 new case in NSW – overseas returnee in hotel quarantine.
    For the past month NSW has been doing compulsory testing on Overseas returnees at 10 days in quarantine. The positive results are ~3%

    OC, do you know what the NSW Health protocol is wrt overseas returnees as far as visits from their family is concerned?
    Thanks in advance. 🙂

  30. Confessions

    When the Greens are promoting the success of an Indigenous woman in becoming a Senator its not a good look to be saying the Greens select Aboriginals for unwinnable seats.

    Obviously winning the Senate spot contradicts your assertion.

  31. ‘fess,
    I’m waiting to see who takes Richard Di Natale’s place in the Senate. The Greens have a golden opportunity to do the right thing there but they probably won’t and will instead rely on the tired old excuse of, it’s who the members voted for.

  32. Historyintime @ #126 Saturday, June 20th, 2020 – 11:41 am

    Dunno, it’s been going on for years and the Victorian ALP has done very well. Do people really care about intra party manoeuvring? It’s when you have financial corruption that it seems to be an electoral problem.

    In NSW, the corruption within the Labor party is all ultimately about money. Are Victorian politicians different? Are they corrupt just for the ego trip?

  33. As a Victorian Greens member I was able to vote for RDN’s replacement in a secret ballot. Grassroots democracy at its best.

    Nine candidates put their hands up. All were quality candidates by any measure. Deciding who to vote for in this ballot was difficult. I participated in a meet the candidates zoom session, read all their bios and supporting references, conducted my own research and still remained undecided for many days before voting.

    Congratulations to Lidia Thorpe.
    ——-

    Aboriginal activist Lidia Thorpe to replace Richard Di Natale as Greens senator for Victoria

    Thorpe’s appointment brings the number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander politicians in federal parliament to five

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/20/aboriginal-activist-lidia-thorpe-to-replace-richard-di-natale-as-greens-senator-for-victoria

    Thorpe, an Aboriginal leader, activist and Gunnai-Kurnai/Gunditjmara woman and former member for Northcote in the Victorian parliament, was elected to fill the casual vacancy after statewide ballot of Victorian Greens members.

    Victoria Greens co-convenors Effy Elden and Ella Webb said 65% of more than 3,600 members eligible to take part in the ballot had voted over two weeks and Thorpe secured a decisive victory.

    On Saturday, Thorpe said she hoped to build on her record in state politics of fighting for social justice and the environment.
    :::
    Thorpe was previously the first Aboriginal woman elected to the Victorian parliament.

    “It’s so important for kids growing up today in places I grew up to know they can do what I’ve done,” she said on Saturday. “Kids in the commission flats, or out in country towns, or single mums, or survivors of domestic violence. This isn’t out of your reach.”

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