Essential Research: coronavirus and bushfires

A new poll registers fears of a second coronavirus wave and prolonged economic slowdown, and finds concern about climate change still at a high pitch.

The Guardian reports this week’s Essential Research poll has still more results on coronavirus, together with some findings on climate change. On the former count, the poll found 63% rating a second wave of coronavirus as restrictions are eased as very likely or quite likely, with only 13% rating it very unlikely; more than 60% expected international travel restrictions to remain for between one and two years; 70% thought it would take between one and two years for employment to recover; 60% expected a prolonged impact on the housing market; more than 60% expected a vaccine would be developed “over the next few years”; and 58% that the population would build resistance through exposure over that time. Despite it all, 45% said they felt very or somewhat positive about the next 12 months compared with 33% for very or somewhat negative.

On climate change, 52% now think Australia is not doing enough, down eight on November, with 25% holding the contrary view, up three. Forty-two per cent said they were now more concerned about climate change than they were a year ago, with a further 46% saying they were no more or less concerned. Full results from the poll will be published later today. (UPDATE: Full report here).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,745 comments on “Essential Research: coronavirus and bushfires”

  1. I wrote a letter to Greg Hunt’s office, and signed the vaping petition. Had to hold my nose as Canadian and Christensen were major sponsors of the “back bench revolt”.

    However, “Any port in a storm”, as they say.

    As may be known here I am an ex-smoker and current vaper. I reckon vaping may have saved my life. In 2 years, vaping has certainly made my day to day living far less unpleasant: lower heart rate and BP (58 and 120/80 respectively), almost perfect blood/oxygen (98%), no cough, no asthma, no colds or flu, can walk all day etc. A big improvement!

    And 1/20th the cost of cigarettes!

  2. nath
    FFS!!!!!!

    Is the NSW ALP part of the United Front? The case has been made: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/sheets-pulled-back-in-search-for-reds-in-bed-with-the-alp/news-story/ff16c1b82ffcfa49dbb0edc807a228a7

    Are you really too young, despite being a Senior Lecturer in the humanities, to not know about the Petrov affair?

    I do not have a sub to the Australian, and have no intention of taking one out, but if the Australian thinks the ALP are in league with the Chinese CCP, then we are right back to the 1950s and 1960s “You cannot vote Labor because they are closet communists, and by the way there are Reds under your beds.”

  3. Douglas and Milko
    says:
    I do not have a sub to the Australian, and have no intention of taking one out, but if the Australian thinks the ALP are in league with the Chinese CCP, then we are right back to the 1950s and 1960s “You cannot vote Labor because they are closet communists, and by the way there are Reds under your beds.”
    _________________________
    It does feel a bit retro. I have no idea about the claims. It’s an opinion piece by:

  4. Douglas and Milko

    I do not have a sub to the Australian, and have no intention of taking one out, but if the Australian thinks the ALP are in league with the Chinese CCP, then we are right back to the 1950s and 1960s “You cannot vote Labor because they are closet communists, and by the way there are Reds under your beds.”
    ————-
    Surely no one reads the Australian propaganda sheet.

  5. Sprocket has always had a fixation on all things Chinese. Maybe ASIO has picked up on the connection? – Could explain his absence tonight?

  6. When my book, Silent Invasion, was published at the beginning of 2018, the big beasts of the NSW Right came out to monster me because I’d written about the Right’s links with Communist Party front groups and agents of influence. Bob Carr, Keating and Graham Richardson attempted to trash my reputation and make me out as a Sinophobe and racist. They were embarrassed because I drew attention to evidence of the deep penetration of the Chinese state into their part of the Labor Party……..

    Carr has been a strong backer of Moselmane in the ALP, speaking at his events and even choosing him to give a speech to launch his memoir. In a June 2018 speech, Carr said no one would dare question the loyalty to Australia of his “great friend” Shaoquett. Carr, still a force in the party, frequently ridicules the “China panic”, the one that presumably led to Friday’s raid. Of course, Carr was hand-picked to run a new think tank by Chinese businessman and political donor Huang Xiangmo. Huang is now banned from re-entering Australia on ASIO advice, and his “Aldi bag” stuffed with cash is being investigated by ICAC…….

    Moselmane is of course not an isolated figure in the NSW ALP. Leadership aspirant Chris Minns, for example, is a frequent attendee at events staged by United Front organisations and is listed as an honorary consultant to the Australia China Economics, Trade and Culture Association. And federal member Chris Bowen has managed to fly below the radar.

    There are a number of staffers suspected of close links to the CCP working out of NSW Parliament House. The Andrews government in Victoria has also been exposed as heavily influenced by United Front operatives over some years, reaching to the very top.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/sheets-pulled-back-in-search-for-reds-in-bed-with-the-alp/news-story/ff16c1b82ffcfa49dbb0edc807a228a7

  7. Andrew Robb thinks it’s a Big Yuan..

    What a CV?

    National Secretary of the Liberal Party
    Safe Melbourne seat of Goldstein
    Trade Minister in Coalition Government
    Lines up fat consultancies with Chinese State companies
    $880,000 fee from Landbridge, Chinese buyer of Darwin Port

  8. Surely more effective and more persuasive than the Chinese invasion, is the US invasion. The US has far more effective ownership, control and manipulation than the Chinese.

    Australian taxpayers even have to fund US Study centres! Talk about funding your destruction!

    Item: most Poll Bludgers identify as Webster missionaries. They probably wear funny underwear and they certainly “root” for America. The dirty pigs!

  9. Dear Mavis,

    [‘The Herald’s newsroom has been pretty empty over the last few months but it came alive with the energy of a huge news story this week.

    Allegations about former High Court justice Dyson Heydon have been on our radar for close to two years. Kate McClymont was inundated with tip-offs following the Herald’s joint investigation with the ABC into former television personality, Don Burke, and the senior judge’s name was among them.

    On Monday, a painstaking investigation sparked by those initial claims could finally be published. Kate with fellow Herald reporter Jacqueline Maley revealed that one of the most respected legal minds in Australia had been found by an independent investigation to have sexually harassed six of his young female staff. Their own inquiries also led them to reveal several other allegations of this predatory behaviour. In response to the report, Chief Justice of the High Court Susan Kiefel apologised to the women involved and said: “We are ashamed that this could have happened at the High Court of Australia.”

    To accuse one of the most respected legal minds in Australia of sexual harassment is not done lightly. The reporters were able to obtain on-the-record accounts from multiple women, including senior Canberra lawyer Noor Blumer, who gave an account of a groping incident at a Canberra ball. They also confirmed rumours that had long swirled about lecherous behaviour towards students at Oxford University, by applying for documents under freedom of information provisions and first-hand accounts.

    “The story was a bombshell that has rippled across the country’s legal fraternity.”
    Prior to breaking any big story, there’s a lot of nervous energy as we check, double-check, and triple-check the story line-by-line, rework headlines, draft social media posts and prepare push-notifications.

    The story was a bombshell that has rippled across the country’s legal fraternity. As the Herald’s Legal Affairs Reporter Michaela Whitbourn wrote in this profile of Chief Justice Kiefel, the voices of long-silenced women in the legal profession became a roar, heard loud and clear by the most senior judicial officer in the country.
    Lisa Davies,

    Editor.’]

    Good on brave Kate, who over the years has been of the brunt of many death threats.

  10. The movie ‘the insider’ was about a whistleblower working for a major tobacco company. Cigarettes were referred to as ‘nicotine delivery devices’ which of course they are.
    Vaping is the same without lots of side-effects. IMO

  11. Diogenes @ #2698 Friday, June 26th, 2020 – 9:24 pm

    GG
    Without a crowd I’m struggling to get into the AFL. I’m not sure what the TV ratings are like but this years premier should have a * next to it. It’s not a proper season.
    At least the Crows are so bad they will have to throw out everything and start again. Best thing for them.

    Why should you care.

    You told us the other day you barrack for Brisbane now.

  12. Jeez, people here love to reach for the long bow. As far as I can make out, absent the hysteria and the self-serving hypocrisy from the usual suspects, Shoaquett Mosselmane was a willing dupe for an influence operation. I’m buggered if I can figure out how you can be a 3 time Mayor, then transition into the Upper House of the NSW State parliament, and not be hip to the Chinese jive. However, it appears, to all intents and purposes via the information thus far released, that that’s exactly what has happened here-a willing dupe, thinking that the Chinese-Australian community needed to be cultivated for political gain for the party you represent, has gone forward to do his best to impress the Chinese, both here and abroad in China, on behalf of the party he represents.

    Stupidly, he lets his Chinese-Australian, part time EO, write some dodgy speeches for him, and, even more stupidly, hoping to curry favour with the aforementioned demographics, he gives the speeches!

    Boy, do the Chinese know how to pick the weakest link, that’s what I do know for certain.

  13. Lars Von Trier
    says:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 9:51 pm
    Thanks be to God! Sprocket is free!
    _________________
    He sung like a canary and was out of pocket for dinner!

  14. I understand you are fond of Chinese elegance, nath – but what of your bodgie pal Lars?

    Or is it widgie pal Lars?

    Either way, I’d recommend avoiding being infested with fleas.

  15. nath says:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 9:53 pm
    Lars Von Trier
    says:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 9:51 pm
    Thanks be to God! Sprocket is free!
    _________________
    He sung like a canary and was out of pocket for dinner!
    ___________________
    Right now ASIO agents are driving to bushfire bill’s retirement community locale for a chat……

  16. GG
    When Roo pisses off and leaves the club I want something to go back to. actually this Pies v GWS is the best game I’ve seen this season. I like the shorter quarters.

  17. “I heard that there have been a lot of applications. But that’s all.”

    For the reno part or the new build. If there have been a lot of applications that’ll be a good thing.

  18. Bloody Hell!
    Some of you have really jumped the shark!!

    The ALP is an agent of communist China influence Australia.

    Right – so you have your clocks set for 1954.

  19. As Britain further dissolves and disintegrates in the face of institutional corruption and dysfunctionalism as we come out of the worst crisis since the Second World War, this trend is likely to increase. No-one is coming out of the coronavirus experience thinking “Boris Johnson handled that well.” No-one is coming out of the coronavirus experience thinking “I’m glad we didn’t have full control over our borders.”

    Trends in support for independence:

  20. Douglas and Milko
    says:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 10:11 pm
    Bloody Hell!
    Some of you have really jumped the shark!!
    The ALP is an agent of communist China influence Australia.
    Right – so you have your clocks set for 1954.
    ___________
    Well Lars and I are just having a bit of fun with Sprocket but that does seem to be what Professor Clive Hamilton is saying.

  21. “The ALP is an agent of communist China influence Australia.”

    I read that as AFL.

    Hamilton regards anyone who has the slightest involvement with China as an agent of influence.

  22. Douglas and Milko
    says:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 10:16 pm
    nath
    Just a thought, but could Clive Hamilton be a bit on an “inverse Doc Evatt”?
    ______________________
    I haven’t read his 2018 book. I’ve skimmed through it. Polemics make me sleepy.

  23. Diog,

    I haven’t been following it but what is the problem with vaping? Isnt it much the same as nicotine gum or patches?

    Using a vaper superficially looks like you’re smoking, and you use the same technique: inhale, draw back, exhale. The vapor resembles “smoke” (at a distance), so ignorant people assume vaping’s the same (and as dangerous) as inhaling combusted material. Which it simply isn’t.

    The vapor is produced by slightly heating a pad or “wick” soaked in flavoured propylene glycol with a tiny electrical coil to about 70 degrees Celsius, where it aerosolizes, but nowhere near ignition temperatures. The same mechanism and materials (but on a larger scale) are used with commercial “fog” machines.

    There are no combustion by-products associated with vaping at all. Only nicotine, in small doses, because you can dose yourself “on demand”, rather than be forced to smoke an entire cigarette (because of the ammonium nitrate added to cigarette tobacco to keep it burning whether you’re inhaling or not, at $1.50 per fag you smoke it all so as not to waste it).

    I use 2 mls of nicotine concentrate per 50 mls of flavoured propolyene glycol, which lasts me 10 days. I mix it myself (carefully, as the concentrate is quite poisonous).

    A 200 ml bottle of concentrate costs $40 out of NZ. So I get 100 * 10 days = 1000 days or about 3 years out of one bottle for $40, as opposed to (if I was still smoking) $45,000 (yes, forty-five THOUSAND dollars) in cigarette purchases over the same period of time.

    To get a total comparative cost of vaping versus smoking, add five-or-six hundred dollars for the flavoured e-juice and fresh coils (they wear out, but are replacable routinely) over the three years and you can get an idea of just how much money is being made by Big Tobacco and high-taxing governments.

    The governments need the money to fund health care for smokers (sort of), but the aim of Big Tobacco is pure profit. Sir Humphrey Appleby did all the sums for Jim Hacker in one of the Yes Minister episodes. The cost/benefit algorithm for the tobacco industry is pretty well-known.

    As far as government’s go, you’d like to think they wouldn’t need or want the taxes if they didn’t have sick smokers to tend to. But, of course, it doesn’t work that way. Governments – especially Liberal governments who still take donations from Big Tobacco companies – are just as greedy as their patrons for tax dollars. Addicted smokers (and drinkers) are grist to their excise mill.

    Hence the move to “regulate” (aka “tax heavily”) vaping.

    Everybody profits.

  24. China is testing restaurant workers and delivery drivers block by block.

    South Korea tells people to carry two types of masks for differing risky social situations.

    Germany requires communities to crack down when the number of infections hits certain thresholds.

    Britain will target local outbreaks in a strategy that Prime Minister Boris Johnson calls “whack-a-mole”.

    Around the world, governments that had appeared to tame the coronavirus are adjusting to the reality that the disease is here to stay.

    But in a shift away from damaging nationwide lockdowns, they are looking for targeted ways to find and stop outbreaks before they become third or fourth waves.

    While the details differ, the strategies call for giving governments flexibility to tighten or ease as needed.

    They require some mix of intensive testing and monitoring, lightning-fast response times by authorities, tight border management and constant reminders to their citizens of the dangers of frequent human contact.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2020/06/26/coronavirus-pandemic-2/

  25. Interesting bit of information on why the raids on Mosselmane were conducted:

    Mr Fergus says the counter-interference operation will be searching for communications showing if anyone in Mr Moselmane’s office has been taking instructions from the CCP to carry out certain tasks.

    If such communication exists “that becomes key, because it means that they are not using their own independent thought processes or working within their own political structure, they are a tasked individual,” he says.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/how-a-low-profile-nsw-mp-became-embroiled-in-an-asio-investigation-20200626-p556du.html

  26. sprocket_ says:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 10:29 pm
    Maybe the spooks should investigate this?

    This kind of thing is really regrettable. Australians of Asian heritage are already targeted for phobic abuse. This is partly COVID related. If the “yellow peril” is revived on security/public safety grounds as a social/political motif we will all be much the worse off, including, not least, the millions of our brothers and sisters of colour and/or of minority ethnic extraction.

  27. “The ALP is an agent of communist China influence Australia.”
    ————-
    I would have thought the ALP is more likely to be an agent of Incompetence.

  28. There are an estimated 300,000 vapers in Australia, most of whom are ex smokers who used vaping to give up tobacco smoking. That is a lot of people who would have been effected by the imminent ban on nicotine vaping imports. Hunt sneaked through this legislation in the last few minutes of the last parliamentary sitting day leaving little time for debate. Many vapers were worried that they would be forced back on tobacco cigarettes, essentially a death sentence for many of them. I was interested in how the community would react. Today is a massive win for the power of the people, particular as they struggled to get main stream media and the general public involved in their plight and had major health groups against them. But it is only a stay of execution to 1 January 2021 at this stage. I don’t think it would have happened without Canavan and Christiansen onside. Ben Fordham also.

  29. PS…Australia is one of only two countries in the developed world that has not legalised vaping As a smoking cessation tool. The other is Turkey. Hunt is well known as being anti-vaping and once declared ‘never on my watch’ to the question of legalising vaping before an independent review commissioned by the government could be completed. The question is why is Hunt so out of step in his views with the rest of the developed world?

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