Essential Research: coronavirus and bushfires

A new poll registers fears of a second coronavirus wave and prolonged economic slowdown, and finds concern about climate change still at a high pitch.

The Guardian reports this week’s Essential Research poll has still more results on coronavirus, together with some findings on climate change. On the former count, the poll found 63% rating a second wave of coronavirus as restrictions are eased as very likely or quite likely, with only 13% rating it very unlikely; more than 60% expected international travel restrictions to remain for between one and two years; 70% thought it would take between one and two years for employment to recover; 60% expected a prolonged impact on the housing market; more than 60% expected a vaccine would be developed “over the next few years”; and 58% that the population would build resistance through exposure over that time. Despite it all, 45% said they felt very or somewhat positive about the next 12 months compared with 33% for very or somewhat negative.

On climate change, 52% now think Australia is not doing enough, down eight on November, with 25% holding the contrary view, up three. Forty-two per cent said they were now more concerned about climate change than they were a year ago, with a further 46% saying they were no more or less concerned. Full results from the poll will be published later today. (UPDATE: Full report here).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,745 comments on “Essential Research: coronavirus and bushfires”

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  1. Re. the E-M bi-election, a loss in which has the potential to damage Albanese. The Labor candidate, the Mayor of Bega, should just get home due to the appalling manner in which far-south coast residents have been adversely affected, P1 having given bludgers a first-hand account of her plight, despite the gratuitous meanderings of dear BB.

  2. Greensborough Growler:

    Verbosity’s not in my lexicon. And when thinking about it, nor in yours. I attempt to get to the crux of the matter. By the way, I hesitate to think why dear moderator ‘snipped’ a recent post of yours.

  3. Car manufacturing in the United Kingdom slumped 95.4 percent from a year earlier to 5,314 units in May of 2020, following a record low of 197 units in April. It was a slight improvement on April but still the worst May since 1946 as factories remained closed or run at reduced capacity due to the coronavirus pandemic. While some two thirds of the UK’s automotive plants started getting back to business during the month, capacity was severely held back by social distancing requirements and reduced demand, with key global markets only just beginning to reopen and the UK remaining in lockdown. 4,260 cars were exported in May, most into the EU, the US and China, and with English car showrooms not reopening until 1 June, only 1,054 models were built for domestic buyers.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/car-production

  4. 7-00 am AEDT 26-June-2020
    State by state electricity generation by fossil fuels ( Australia )
    WA. 95.93%
    TAS. 0%
    SA. 99.57%
    VIC. 87.04%
    NSW. 89.90%
    QLD. 96.41%

  5. Bucephalus:

    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 7:19 pm

    [‘I’ll leave you guys to it.’]

    No, Bucephalus, you must engage after dark – that’s when it gets interesting.

  6. GG
    “ Why would you want to go there ?”
    To avoid dying of coronavirus because your premiers cabinet is full of corrupt MPs who spend all their time branch stacking instead of running the government?

  7. Mavis @ #2652 Friday, June 26th, 2020 – 7:26 pm

    Greensborough Growler:

    Verbosity’s not in my lexicon. And when thinking about it, nor in yours. I attempt to get to the crux of the matter. By the way, I hesitate to think why dear moderator ‘snipped’ a recent post of yours.

    Verbosity, lexicon, crux?

    All words that a lawyer criminal would use; don’t you think.

  8. ”The Greens, who are pushing for a ban on ‘dirty donations’, accepted more than $200,000 from a couple linked to a security company providing services to defence and police agencies.“

    Right, I’ll add that to my list of things to worry about. I might be able to slot it in around 7,000, between “why isn’t Greenland a Continent” and “Will 99942 Apophis impact the Earth in 2833?”

    Seriously, why are we taking the lead on talking points from a beat up in Rupert’s crapsheet “The Australian”.

  9. Diogenes @ #2656 Friday, June 26th, 2020 – 7:34 pm

    GG
    “ Why would you want to go there ?”
    To avoid dying of coronavirus because your premiers cabinet is full of corrupt MPs who spend all their time branch stacking instead of running the government?

    I’m avoiding it quite well atm. How about you?

    Situation normal in Melbourne. Collingwood are June Premiers. The ultimate return to normality.

  10. Bandt, who has hitherto been rather coy about actually fleshing out what is actually in a Light Mobile Force has now unveiled the Future of Australia’s Security. Fully funded and fully costed at $200,000.

    https://www.google.com/search?q=uss+reagan+image&client=firefox-b-d&tbm=isch&source=iu&ictx=1&fir=1jgISJ4ja1AqAM%252C0tcc1C87V2m3UM%252C_&vet=1&usg=AI4_-kRg33zngMXqUXAkdqEOxcG29nPDUg&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiyiqqCmJ_qAhVE9XMBHVmbATUQ9QEwBHoECAkQHw&biw=1440&bih=683#imgrc=1jgISJ4ja1AqAM

  11. continuo:

    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 7:29 pm

    Yes, cobber, but you do have a track record for being boring – no offense.

  12. Mavis says:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 7:46 pm
    continuo:

    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 7:29 pm

    Yes, cobber, but you do have a track record for being boring – no offense.

    None taken. I don’t post in order to amuse you, M. I leave that to Peg, P1, Rexology and guytaur, who are no end of laughs.

  13. “Right, I’ll add that to my list of things to worry about. I might be able to slot it in around 7,000, between “why isn’t Greenland a Continent” and “Will 99942 Apophis impact the Earth in 2833?””

    Pretty much.

  14. BK @ #2665 Friday, June 26th, 2020 – 7:52 pm

    Pravda is “The Truth” while the other Soviet newspaper was Isvestia “the News”
    Hence the Old Soviet saying
    в правде нет правды, в известиях нет новостей
    “there is no truth in pravda and no news in izvestia“
    ________
    OC
    No. THIS is The Truth!

    In Melbourne town in days of yore, it was “If you can’t think, buy the Age,. If you can’t read, buy the Sun”!

  15. A new batch of polls released by The New York Times Upshot/Siena College this morning has caused a stir as they gave former Vice President Joe Biden leads ranging from 6 to 11 percentage points in six key battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

    Yet these surveys largely reinforced what our polling averages already showed: Biden has a sizable edge over President Trump in the states that are most likely to be the tipping point in the Electoral College, and he leads or is running even with Trump in some states that leaned Republican in 2016. As a result, Trump’s much-ballyhooed Electoral College advantage doesn’t look strong enough to save him — for the moment, at least.

    The Times/Siena is one of the most highly-rated pollsters in FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings — one of six with an A+ mark — so these new surveys did adjust our averages a bit, most notably in Pennsylvania.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/new-polling-shows-trumps-electoral-college-advantage-is-slipping/

  16. But perhaps what’s even more significant about this batch of recent polls is that Trump’s possible Electoral College advantage is slipping. Biden doesn’t lead by as much in most of the battleground states as he does nationally, but his leads are big enough — anywhere from 5 points in Arizona to 9 points in Nevada — that it won’t matter that many battleground states lean to the right of the country.

    Take Biden’s leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Those three Frost Belt states were each decided by less than 1 point in the 2016 election, yet Biden leads them all by at least 8 points. That gives him a firmer grip on the Electoral College. The race, of course, could narrow in the coming months, but as the Times/Siena surveys found, Biden also has a sizable edge in states such as Arizona and Florida, which means even if his position weakens in the Midwest — perhaps some white Republican-leaning voters come home to Trump — Biden’s strength in other parts of the country might be less affected and still give him a path to victory with 270 electoral votes.

    And the fact that Biden now has multiple paths to the White House is the biggest problem facing Trump. He needs a notable shift in voter sentiment that makes the national environment less favorable for Biden. With four months to go, that’s quite possible, but at the moment, our polling averages suggest that he’s in a lot of trouble.

  17. “why isn’t Greenland a Continent”

    It’s too small and is clearly a part of the North American mass.

    A more pressing question: Why do we still label Europe and Asia as different continents?

  18. ‘there is strong evidence of a central organisation that controls these depraved teenagers’
    Bloody teenagers, do they ever learn?

  19. GG
    I was talking about how the game has deteriorated over the past few years. It is not a very attractive product these days.

  20. ‘bill says:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 8:09 pm

    ‘there is strong evidence of a central organisation that controls these depraved teenagers’
    Bloody teenagers, do they ever learn?’

    Were Bodgies and Widgies a proto-Greens Front Organization?

  21. BK @ #2678 Friday, June 26th, 2020 – 8:10 pm

    GG
    I was talking about how the game has deteriorated over the past few years. It is not a very attractive product these days.

    The game goes through these periods where defence dominates. The game seems to be about holing possession atm. This is a game that Collingwood excel. But, ultimately, it gets unpicked by key forwards and daring do young players.

  22. Greenland’s about the size of WA. On a Mercator projection map it looks as big as South America, which is about eight times larger.

  23. mavis,

    Peggy and P1 can make their own way and really don’t need an old sop like you to protect them.

    I have a particular dislike of black board monitors like you trying to moderate the blog with the sanctimony.

    As far as I’m concerned , talk about political issues or fuck off.

    I hope I am clear.

  24. Just kick it up the guts and leave it to the marking forwards.
    Although Malcolm Blight had one who he dropped then won 2 flags in a row so I know shit.

  25. No one is more boring than Mavis! Vera Lynn and Joan Sutherland fcs! Plus acting as the blog monitor. Bo-ring.

  26. “Right, I’ll add that to my list of things to worry about. I might be able to slot it in around 7,000, between “why isn’t Greenland a Continent” and “Will 99942 Apophis impact the Earth in 2833?””

    Pretty much.”

    Agreed. Greens can be gits, but bagging them for this is just silly. Lots of more real stuff to bag then for.

  27. GG displaying just a bit of hypocrisy.

    On to another topic -What are the odds of targeted spending winning out over austerity to get us of the looming ongoing financial crisis?

  28. Less representation at local council is another Somyurek legacy

    https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/less-representation-local-council-another-somyurek-legacy

    “In his former role as Minister for Small Business and Local Government, the now disgraced Adem Somyurek decreed that all municipal councils in Victoria would move to single member wards and postal ballots, changes which are now being implemented by the state Labor government.

    In light of Somyurek’s branch-stacking, people should be asking why he wanted those changes for this coming council election, Moreland councillor Sue Bolton said on June 21.

    “Single member wards advantage the major parties, because they reduce representation and get rid of proportional representation,” Bolton told Green Left. “They privilege the major parties, which have money, and make it very difficult for minor parties and independents to be elected.”

  29. Scout @ #2688 Friday, June 26th, 2020 – 8:45 pm

    GG displaying just a bit of hypocrisy.

    On to another topic -What are the odds of targeted spending winning out over austerity to get us of the looming ongoing financial crisis?

    3/5th of bugger all. That is because Morrison’s targeted spending, such as it is, is very parsimonious, and dare I say it, austere in its projection.

    We will get no other. Nothing of a mind-expanding type that might scream, ‘Nation Building!’ Just using public money to buy another undeserved election win, until such time as the electorate finally twigs, like they did with Howard, who also pissed public money up against a wall like a drunken sailor, and they throw/threw the bums out. That is, if Christian Porter doesn’t keep getting away with his Bill Barr impersonation and bending the legal system to the coalition’s will and the perpetuation of themselves in power forevermore.

  30. Yes C@t my fear is that they will also win the narrative battle as if they are doing the right thing while shafting everyone.

    Always intrigued me how people going back to ‘Howard’s Battlers’ end up voting for the Coalition.

    Spose when media is on your side it helps.

  31. NE Queensland
    A backflip it may be, but it is the best outcome for people using vaping to give up smoking.

    Health Minister Greg Hunt has delayed plans to impose a $200,000 fine on Australians who import liquid nicotine and will review the government’s policy on smokers who use vaping to give up cigarettes after a backbench revolt.

    The ban, which the Therapeutic Goods Administration last week announced would begin on July 1, will now be delayed for six months while the regulator conducts a formal review and consultation “regarding the classification of nicotine in the Poisons Standard,” Mr Hunt said on Friday.

    The federal government could easily make nicotine liquid for vaping available as prescription only. that way, the chance of young people taking up vaping and getting addicted to nicotine is almost zero.

    On behalf of my son, who has vastly improved his health by transitioning to vaping, I tried to find a medical practitioner who will prescribe nicotine. They have all been harassed (mainly by the Fairfax papers) to the extent it is no longer safe for them to prescribe nicotine.

    On this I agree with Tim Wilson and the other backbenchers. It does not mean I agree with them on everything.

    I am also representing my pro-vaping views (while not being a smoker or vaper myself) to the ALP. I really applaud Nicola Roxon for supervising the passage of the “plain packaging” laws for cigarettes in Australia. This was ground breaking stuff, and has set the legal standard for the rest of the world.

    However, this does not mean that the currents victims of addiction due to “Big Tobacco” should be thrown under a bus, and forced back on to cigarettes.

    Nicotine is an addiction with a strong genetic component. Some people really cannot give up. The late great Ted Mack, independent MP for North Sydney was one of these people. He was such a strong anti-smoking campaigner because he was a chain smoker himself, and was never able to give up.

  32. The Noble Knight currently leading the Unionist Labour Party of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Sir Keir Starmer KCB QC MP is a nice counterfoil to Keir Hardie the Scottish socialist founder of the original Labour Party after whom he is named.

    The real Labour Party was committed to home rule for Ireland and Scotland and the abolition of the House of Lords.

    Luckily, for the SNP, Sir Keir has demanded that Scots not be allowed to vote on independence in case they should vote in a way that upset the Noble English Knight!

    Sir Keir might be ashamed that Labour still has not been able to divest itself of last seat in Scotland, where 43% of the remaining Labour voters support independence.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/18542850.keir-starmer-doubles-scottish-labours-indyref2-stance/

  33. Scout,
    Scott Morrison puts the narrative above all else. I mean, look how quickly the $70 Billion mistake over JobKeeper disappeared off the face of the earth because he got the narrative about it right. Of course it helps that 9Fax, Stokes, Murdoch and the Stockholm Syndrome-addled ABC are there to reinforce the message 24/7, never query their message and never eviscerate it like they do with Labor.

    The Sisyphean task for Labor is to keep trying to cut through the morass of misinformation. Luckily, kind of, people seem to get the message that they care about the little guy, but there are still enough of those people around who think that the Coalition and their avatars in the business community will screw around with Labor governments if they do get into power, so what’s the point of having hope? Plus, the Coalition have been able to harness votes by doing the sort of penny ante crap like they are doing now in the Eden Monaro By-election via holding back public funding for the kiddies’ local basketball courts or footy fields and then promising it at vote buying time.

    And if all that doesn’t work to get their increasingly ultra conservative candidates elected, then they drop a raid on the ALP out of their back pockets. Disgustingly cynical. And, hopefully not this time, miraculously successful.

  34. Watching the Drum, something I don’t normally do. A reporter from the Daily Telegraph on. Bernard Keane calls them stenographers for the federal government. He’s right.

  35. Great post Douglas & Milko, obviously I agree but there was an understanding of the nature of addiction that got me. Lot of people will never understand and those who do can never explain it to them. Cool..

  36. GG
    Without a crowd I’m struggling to get into the AFL. I’m not sure what the TV ratings are like but this years premier should have a * next to it. It’s not a proper season.
    At least the Crows are so bad they will have to throw out everything and start again. Best thing for them.

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