Biden further extends lead over Trump

Just over four months from the election, Biden has a near double digit national lead over Trump as US coronavirus cases spike again. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

In the FiveThirtyEight poll aggregate, Donald Trump’s ratings with all polls are 40.9% approve, 55.4% disapprove (net -14.5%). With polls of registered or likely voters, Trump’s ratings are 41.3% approve, 55.1% disapprove (net -13.8%). Since my article three weeks ago, Trump has lost about three points on net approval. His ratings are at their worst since the US government shutdown in January 2019.

FiveThirtyEight has started tracking the presidential general election polls. As there are far more national polls than state polls, they adjust state polls for the national trend. So with Biden widening his national lead, FiveThirtyEight will adjust states in Joe Biden’s favour where there hasn’t been recent polling.

The latest national poll aggregate gives Biden a 50.9% to 41.3% lead over Trump. US polls usually include an undecided option, so the remaining voters are mostly undecided, not third party. Three weeks ago, Biden’s lead was 6.6%.

In 2016, four states – Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida – voted for Trump over Hillary Clinton by 1.2% or less. In the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, Biden leads in Pennsylvania by 5.6%, in Florida by 7.4%, in Wisconsin by 7.6% and in Michigan by 9.6%.

Biden also leads in several states Trump won comfortably in 2016. He leads by 4.7% in Arizona, 1.3% in Georgia, 1.9% in North Carolina and 2.4% in Ohio. Trump has just a 0.1% lead in Iowa and a 0.5% lead in Texas.

If the election were being held next week, there is little doubt that Biden would win both the national popular vote and the Electoral College easily. But the election will not be held until November 3. Can Trump recover? If Biden’s national lead is reduced to fewer than five points, the Electoral College could save Trump, as Biden’s lead is narrower in the pivotal states than nationally.

The two issues that have eroded Trump’s position are coronavirus and the protests after the murder of George Floyd. Up to the last week, US coronavirus cases and deaths had fallen from their peaks in April, but the last week has seen a renewed surge in cases. Over 38,000 cases were recorded Wednesday, the highest since April 24. Analyst Nate Silver says this increase is not caused by greater testing, with the positive test rate rising to 7.7% from 4.9% on June 17.

There has not yet been an increase in daily coronavirus deaths, but it is likely that deaths are a lagging indicator, and will increase later. The seven states with over 1,000 cases Wednesday are all southern states except for California, a big western state. In March and April, the north-eastern states were hit hardest. Weather may be a factor: the virus spreads more efficiently indoors, and people stay indoors more if the weather is either too cold or too hot.

It is unlikely that there can be a genuine economic recovery while coronavirus is still active. Trump’s best chance of re-election is for the coronavirus to have faded by November, and a strong economic recovery. May US economic data has been much better than April, but April was so terrible that a recovery still has a long way to go. I cannot see Trump being re-elected without an economic recovery.

I believe the video evidence of George Floyd’s murder is a major reason for the great dissatisfaction with Trump’s performance on race relations, and sharply increased support for the Black Lives Matter movement. Had this murder not been on video, the police would have been able to deny it, and many would have believed their denials.

What about Congress?

As well as the presidency, all 435 House of Representatives seats and one-third of the 100 senators are up for election on November 3. Democrats gained control of the House in November 2018, and are very likely to retain control; they have an 8.1% lead in the FiveThirtyEight generic ballot tracker.

There are two senators per state. While it was not always the case, the bias towards low-population states now favours Republicans, who currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority. In deeply conservative Alabama, Democrat Doug Jones unexpectedly won a December 2017 by-election, and is unlikely to repeat his success.

The RealClearPolitics Senate map gives Democrats some chance of winning the Senate. It has 48 Republican seats, 47 Democrats and five toss-ups. Republicans are currently being dragged down by Trump, so a move back to Trump would assist them.

28 comments on “Biden further extends lead over Trump”

  1. This is Donald Trump:
    “Trump says he told officials to slow coronavirus testing to keep case numbers low”…

    How could a moron of that magnitude have ever been elected in the first place?… But he did. Can he be re-elected?…. This is a massive test for the intelligence of American voters… and note, to pass the test you actually don’t need to be very intelligent at all!

  2. “The two issues that have eroded Trump’s position are coronavirus and the protests after the murder of George Floyd.”…

    Trump never had a winning position against Biden in the opinion polls, even before COVID-19 and the Floyd murder… Why do you think that he asked the Ukrainians to help him against Biden and was impeached by the H. of R. for it?

  3. “Republicans are currently being dragged down by Trump, so a move back to Trump would assist them”… I am not sure what do you mean there, but the Bolton book may swing quite a few conservative voters against Trump and the Republican party that he currently controls. Certainly, Bolton cannot be accused of being a “puppet” of the Democrats.

  4. Just updated: general poll + swing states:

    General Election: Trump vs. Biden CNBC Biden 47, Trump 38 Biden +9
    Florida: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena Biden 47, Trump 41 Biden +6
    Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena Biden 49, Trump 38 Biden +11
    Michigan: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena Biden 47, Trump 36 Biden +11
    Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena Biden 50, Trump 40 Biden +10
    North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena Biden 49, Trump 40 Biden +9
    Arizona: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena Biden 48, Trump 41 Biden +7

  5. It’s easy to look at US politics through our lens.

    I don’t think Bolton will swing a soul, but his admissions will keep a fair number at home. Trump will always have his rusted ons, but the Dems are the outsiders now.

    The so called ‘independent’ voters won’t give him another shot and the democrats in the swing states won’t sit on their hands.

    CoVid-19 has been the ultimate black swan. The biggest disruption to the world since WW2. But who knows how it will be in November. It’s five months away. Five months ago, it was all about impeachment in the US.

  6. ————
    Trump never had a winning position against Biden in the opinion polls, even before COVID-19 and the Floyd murder
    ————
    I don’t think that was what was being argued. Covid has eroded his position wrt the upcoming election. Pre covid, Trunp had a good path to victory using a campaign based around the economy. ‘I may be a leach, but I will give you judges and a raging economy’ probably would have worked Regardless of the argument that the economic improvement was not due to his acumen.

  7. The latest Pa poll is very heartening. Biden has consistently been ahead in the states that matter – with a buffer state. There is so much to work with for Biden. So much work for Trump to control so many flipping states.

    Trump is pinning his hopes on the ‘Senile Sleepy’ nark. It is unfair (as Trump can get away with almost anything in the debates) but Trump is looking for just one seniors moment from Biden in the debates. Nowhere to hide in one on one.

    He did great in 2012.

  8. The latest polling in Pennsylvania has improved Biden’s position in the 538 tracker. He now leads by 8.1% there, compared with 5.6% when I submitted the article yesterday. That improves Biden’s position in the Electoral College relative to the national vote. The “tipping-point” state that would give him the magic 270 Electoral Votes is just 1.4% more pro-Trump than the national polls.

  9. SK: “Trump is pinning his hopes on the ‘Senile Sleepy’ nark.”

    I think Trump is actually pinning his hopes on a silent majority (to use Nixon’s term) of voters who are appalled at the rioting, looting, statue-toppling, etc. Trump and his team are hoping that this group is much larger than the pollsters are indicating and, more importantly, are disproportionately likely to turn out to vote on election day.

    This is why Trump basically sat on his hands – other than to use his iPhone to make a few incoherent tweets – while law and order broke down in early June: he was calculating that sending in Federal agents or the military to stop the rioting and looting would result in shootings that would rebound on him in the way that the Kent State shootings in 1970 damaged Nixon (albeit not fatally: it took Watergate to do that several years later). Anyway, his reasoning goes, the more anarchy there is in the streets, the more upset the silent majority are going to feel, and the more likely they are to vote for him.

    My view is that Trump’s strategy is not without merit (from his point of view). I think that, as the campaign goes on, Biden will need to work very hard to convince voters that he and his party are not totally on the side of the people who decapitate statues, loot shoe shops, create autonomous zones, and wish to abolish the police. His choice of Vice-President will be critically important: it simply has to be someone who has credentials from beyond the woke-o-sphere, or his campaign will be seriously damaged.

    I think that’s why Keisha Lance Bottoms made a bit of a charge from nowhere: she brought together the qualities of being an African-American woman (which makes it very difficult for the BLM/woke brigade to criticise her), with a reputation of being tough on crime. Unfortunately, the shooting of Rayshard Brooks and the subsequent charging of officers with murder has damaged her standing a bit on both sides of the BLM/tough on crime ledger. Pity.

  10. Some UK Labour drama: Keir Starmer has sacked his leadership opponent, Rebecca Long-Bailey, as shadow education minister after she approvingly retweeted an interview by an actress who said that the Israeli secret service trained the US police in their kneeling tactics.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jun/25/keir-starmer-sacks-rebecca-long-bailey-from-shadow-cabinet

    This will reignite Labour’s internal war, with left MPs suspecting Starmer just wanted an excuse to get rid of Long-Bailey.

  11. Just to flag timeframes. Early voting starts Mid September in some states, including Michigan. Trump has 10 weeks to turn this around, not 20.

  12. I really can’t see a path for Trump to win at this stage (with the obvious caveat that November is still a few months away), with all of the swing states leaning (by greater or lesser amounts) to Biden, and a few hitherto strong Trump states moving into toss-up territory.

    Biden, like any Democrat, can almost certainly relay on the Electoral Votes totaling 229 Votes (CA-55; CO-9; CT-7; DC-3; DE-3; HI-4; IL-20; MA-11; MD-10; ME-4; MN-10; NJ-14; NM-5; NV-6; NY-29; OR-7; RI-4; VA-13; VT-3; WA-12), while Trump will win a bare minimum of 123 EVs (AK-3; AL-9; AR-6; ID-4; IN-11; KS-6; KY-8; LA-8; MO-10; MS-6; ND-3; NE-5; OK-7; SC-9; SD-3; TN-11; UT-6; WV-6; WY-3).

    This leaves us with the following states that could potentially go either way (admittedly, some more likely than others, though polling has them all close): AZ (11 EVs); FL (29); GA (16); IA (6); MI (16); MT (3); NC (15); NH (4); OH (18); PA (20); TX (38); WI (10). Biden is well ahead in multiple polls in Arizona, Michigan, Ne Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (a total of 61 EVs), and he’s also been consistently ahead (though not by as much) in Florida, and appears to have narrow leads in North Carolina and Ohio. The fact that states like Texas are even being talked about as being in play gives an indication of the trouble that Trump is in.

    My best guess for the Electoral College score is Biden 334, Trump 204, with a popular vote win of 8-10 points. An even bigger landslide is possible – if Biden wins all of the “in play” states above, he’s get an Electoral College win of 415-123, which would be biggest win since Ronald Reagan’s re-election in 1984.

    America (and the world) needs Trump to suffer a heavy loss, as a repudiation of the ugly and divisive politics that he represents. I don’t hold any illusions that Joe Biden will be any sort of great President, but if he wins, that will be enough.

  13. In New Zealand, a late June poll shows Labour support dropping nine points from May, but they still have a 12-point lead over National.

    50% Labour (down 9)
    38% National (up 9)
    6% Greens (up 1)

    Only parties that get above the 4$ threshold qualify for seats unless they win a single member seat. Despite the drop, Labour is still on course to win the Sept 19 election.

    New Nat leader Todd Muller had a +9 net approval with 36% approving and 27% disapproving. He replaced Simon Bridges on May 22.

    https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/national-jumps-in-support-new-leader-labour-still-able-govern-alone-1-news-colmar-brunton-poll

  14. As for the Senate, things are also looking good for the Democratic Party there too, though of course, the results here (and to a lesser extent, in the House) may well hinge on the result of the Presidential election – a big win for Biden will probably get some of the toss-up Senate races over the line for the Blue team, whereas a better-than-expected result for Trump might see them stay Red. (I don’t think there’s any prospect whatsoever of the Democrats losing the House this year.)

    The current score is 53-47 to the Republicans, and most observers give Doug Jones no chance of holding his Alabama seat for the Democrats, so the effective starting point is 54-46. Democratic wins look most likely in Arizona (where Mike Kelly has regularly recorded significant leads over GOP incumbent Martha McSally), Colorado (where former Dem Governor John Hickenlooper is widely regarded as a near-certainty to take the seat off Cory Gardner, notwithstanding JH’s poor campaign so far), and Maine (where long-time GOP incumbent Susan Collins might finally be ousted by the State’s increasingly Blue tinge).

    This leaves us at 51-49 to the republicans, and so the Democrats need to pick up at least one more of the other states in play (assuming that Biden wins the White House, in which case his Vice-President would be the tie-breaker). These other states are Iowa (where Joni Ernst appears to be struggling), Montana (where popular Dem Governor is running), North Carolina (incumbent GOP Senator Thom Tills is neck-and-neck with Cal Cunningham) and the two Georgia races (one of which is a special). Montana looks the most likely, though if it’s a landslide to Biden (quite possible), the Dems might yet win all of those in-play seats.

    The Dems also have an encouraging Senate map for 2022, notwithstanding that mid-terms often go against the White House incumbent, with possible pick-ups in Florida (Marco Rubio), Georgia (a re-run of this year’s special election), North Carolina (GOP incumbent Richard Burr is retiring), Ohio (Portman), Pennsylvania (Pat Toomey) and Wisconsin (Ron Johnson), with no real dangers for the Democrats.

    Of course, if the Democrats win control of all the marbles (House, Senate and President) this year, then they might move to admit new states, such as Puerto Rico and DC. Such states would be solidly Democratic, and would therefore provide four new Democratic Senators in an expanded 104-seat Senate, probably giving them a 54-50 advantage

  15. Good to see the Greens maintaining their vote share in NZ. It’s probably likely that Ardern’s and Labour’s stratospheric poll ratings will come in further before election day, and Labour will probably need the Greens to govern.

  16. Bucephalus –

    It’s still quite possible that Trump could win from here (though unlikely). He commands the fervent and wavering support of about a third of voters, and they will vote for him regardless, and so he probably only needs another 10-12% of voters in the right states to hold their noses to vote for him again. It’s also the case that in a few swing states (particularly, Wisconsin, Ohio, North Carolina and Georgia) there are various methods of vote suppression in place – voter ID laws, limited access to postal, pre-poll and absent voting, voter roll purging, loss of franchise for ex-felons, and faulty and dubious voting machines, all of which affect minority, student and poorer groups turn-out, groups which tend to skew Democratic. Throw the wildcards of the Covid pandemic (which might discourage people from voting) and foreign interference (which if 20126 is any guide will certainly benefit Trump), and it’s easy to see how Trump might eke out another narrow victory.

    It’s worth remembering that Trump won in 2016, despite losing the popular vote by a substantial margin, by securing narrow win in a number of close swing states like Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that he could do it again, even if current polling doesn’t suggest it’s particularly likely.

  17. AB: “Some UK Labour drama: Keir Starmer has sacked his leadership opponent, Rebecca Long-Bailey, as shadow education minister after she approvingly retweeted an interview by an actress who said that the Israeli secret service trained the US police in their kneeling tactics.”

    Really good move IMO. Starmer’s best tactic is to kick the Momentum brigade extremely hard every time they take a step out of line.

    I think he realises that he may face a challenge to his leadership some time before the next election, especially if – as seems inevitable – he establishes an election-winning lead in the polls. I know that sounds crazy, but the Corbynite Momentum bunch are infiltrators, not party loyalists. They are after power at all costs.

    I reckon he’s got the making of a great British Labour PM: the best since Harold Wilson. But he’s got a hard battle ahead to stay on top of the fifth column within his party.

  18. meher baba
    ” I know that sounds crazy, but the Corbynite Momentum bunch are infiltrators, not party loyalists. They are after power at all costs.

    The Corbynites had their chance – twice. They lost – twice, the second time by a huge margin.

    Under Corbyn, UK Labour went off the rails. Time to get UK Labour back on track.

  19. ———
    I think Trump is actually pinning his hopes on a silent majority
    ———
    There is no silent majority and Trump knows it. He is using it as a slogan, a campaign tactic, trying to keep his base energised while hoping for an economic surge or a major Biden slip up.

  20. It probably will narrow a bit come closer to the election as a lot of the numbers moving away from Trump haven’t necessarily gone to Biden, presumably being Republicans who don’t like Trump and refuse to support him but, come election day, will remember that they still prefer the judges Trump appoints over those Biden might, and the bills he would sign into law (if the GOP won both houses) that Biden would veto, and will hold their noses and vote for him.

    However, that needs to be a sizeable number, and independents are all swinging away from him as well. It was said above there might be a ‘silent majority’ supporting him. That cohort needs to have been very silent and very large to miss everyone’s radar to this extent.

    I reiterate it’s very difficult (but not impossible) to see Trump coming back from this deficit and while the “plenty of time for things to change” caveat still applies, that amount is now just little over four months. And, at this point, a Biden landslide is becoming more probable than a Trump win of any shape. I will wait until after the conventions before I take the numbers too seriously though.

    I do have one favour to ask: when we get closer to the election, we might see some forecasters give someone high odds of winning and might, say, give them a 75+% chance of winning. For the love of god, please do not round that number to 100% and assume it means it is impossible for the other guy to win. I don’t think I will tolerate another four years of overly-smug idiots who don’t understand probability acting like they’re smarter than everyone else claiming the forecasters got it ‘wrong’ because they didn’t forecast a win for the other guy.

  21. Come on RL – it’s Friday night. Get on the cheer train. Fox Poll have Just joined the party. Put your hands in the air! Trunp is toast. He may rebound and hold Ga Texas and NC but that is not enough.. and instead of rebound he may implode.

  22. General Election: Trump vs. Biden CNBC Biden 47, Trump 38 Biden +9
    North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 47, Trump 45 Biden +2
    Texas: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Trump 44, Biden 45 Biden +1
    Georgia: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Trump 45, Biden 47 Biden +2
    Florida: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 49, Trump 40 Biden +9
    Florida: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena Biden 47, Trump 41 Biden +6
    Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena Biden 49, Trump 38 Biden +11
    Michigan: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena Biden 47, Trump 36 Biden +11
    Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena Biden 50, Trump 40 Biden +10
    North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena Biden 49, Trump 40 Biden +9
    Arizona: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena Biden 48, Trump 41 Biden +7

  23. Former Vice President Joe Biden has opened up a 13-point lead over President Trump in the latest Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) tracking poll released on Friday.

    The poll shows the presumptive Democratic nominee garnering about 51 percent of the vote in the general election, while Trump trails with 38 percent. Among those who preferred Biden, 37 percent said they would “definitely” vote for him in November, while another 14 percent said that they “probably” would.

    For Trump, 30 percent of respondents said they would “definitely” cast their ballot for him in the general election, while about 8 percent said they “probably” would.

  24. Come on RL – it’s Friday night. Get on the cheer train. Fox Poll have Just joined the party. Put your hands in the air! Trunp is toast. He may rebound and hold Ga Texas and NC but that is not enough.. and instead of rebound he may implode.

    I just saw this. I am not sure how one could infer pessimism from my post. I am very optimistic about Biden’s chances. I just don’t want to prematurely do a victory lap, as that kind of hubris has happened quite a bit in the last few years (and been duly punished) – especially on a website full of people who, until May last year were talking about the certainty of Bill Shorten’s easy election win and were more focused on what a successful PM he would be. Also, I think we all still have jitters from 2016.

    I also wanted to preemptively prepare people for the polls slightly narrowing in the Spring, in the hope of minimising the “we’re doomed!” rhetoric.

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