The week that was

Party turmoil in Victoria and Queensland, state and territory seat entitlements for the next federal parliament determined, and more polling on attitudes to demonstrations in the United States.

After a particularly eventful week, a whole bunch of electorally relevant news to report:

• The last official population updates have confirmed next month’s official determination of how many seats each state and territory will be entitled to in the next parliament will cause the abolition of seats in Western Australia and the Northern Territory, and the creation of a new one in Victoria for the second consecutive term. Antony Green offers detailed consideration of how the redistributions might look, suggesting Victoria’s will most likely result in the creation of another safe Labor seat in Melbourne’s outer north-west, while Western Australia’s could either mash together Hasluck and Burt in eastern Perth, or abolish the safe Liberal south-of-the-river seat of Tangney, with knock-on effects that would weaken Labor’s position in Fremantle and/or Burt.

• In the wake of the 60 Minutes/The Age expose on Adem Somyurek’s branch stacking activities on Sunday, Labor’s national executive has taken control of all the Victorian branch’s federal and state preselections for the next three years. Steve Bracks and Jenny Macklin have been brought in to serve as administrators until January, and an audit of the branch’s 16,000 members will be conducted to ensure that are genuine consenting members and paid their own fees.

• Ipsos has published polling on the recent demonstrations in the United States from fifteen countries, which found Australians to be supportive of what were specified as “peaceful protests in the US” and disapproving of Donald Trump’s handling of them, although perhaps in slightly lesser degree than other more liberal democracies. Two outliers were India and Russia, which produced some seemingly anomalous results: the former had a strangely high rating for Trump and the latter relatively low support for the protests, yet both were uniquely favourable towards the notion that “more violent protests are an appropriate response”.

• The Tasmanian government has announced the periodical Legislative Council elections for the seats of Huon and Rosevears will be held on August 1, having been delayed from their normally allotted time of the first Tuesday in May.

In Queensland, where the next election is a little over four months away:

• After floating the possibility of an election conducted entirely by post, the Queensland government announced this week that the October 31 state election will be conducted in a more-or-less normal fashion. However, pre-poll voting is being all but actively encouraged, to the extent that Attorney-General Yvette D’Ath says there will be an “election period” rather than an election day. This will mean “more pre-poll locations, longer pre-poll hours, and more pre-poll voting days in the two weeks prior to the election”.

• The Liberal National Party opposition was thrown into turmoil last week after the Courier-Mail ($) received internal polling showing Labor leading 51-49 in Redlands, 52-48 in Gaven, 55-45 in Mansfield and 58-42 in inner urban Mount Ommaney. The parties were tied in the Sunshine Coast hinterland seat of Glass House, while the LNP led by 52-48 in the Gold Coast seat of Currumbin, which it recently retained by a similar margin at a by-election. Frecklington’s supporters pointed the finger at the state branch president, Dave Hutchinson, who was reportedly told by Frecklington that his position was untenable after Clive Palmer hired him as a property consultant in January. The party room unanimously affirmed its support for Frecklington on Monday, as mooted rival David Crisafulli ruled out a challenge ahead of the election.

• The Queensland parliament this week passed an array of electoral law changes including campaign spending caps of $92,000 per candidate and limitations on signage at polling places. The changes have been criticised ($) by the Liberal National Party and Katter’s Australian Party, who complain that union advertising will now dominate at polling booths, and that the laws was pushed through with indecent haste on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,922 comments on “The week that was”

Comments Page 2 of 39
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  1. Confessions @ #41 Saturday, June 20th, 2020 – 9:18 am

    C@t:

    The RAT podcast interview was very telling. All of them agreed that the GOP is the party of Trump for the foreseeable future, and those pro-Trump governors are really just sucking up to him with an eye on the 2024 presidential race.

    I doubt any of them will be back in the Republican party any time soon, Biden win or not.

    As I commented last night, experts say the Populist Authoritarian model has a while to run yet before the people who are entranced by it rise up with their pitchforks against it.

    Also, Trump is groomimg Don Jr. and Ivanka to perpetuate the political dynasty and they are going to be hard cancers to excise from the party.

  3. Cat
    The greens have been taken over by the socialist. The environmentalist are resigning.
    The Liberals by the religious right. The moderates resigned decades ago.
    There are people in the Labor party that don’t want it taken over by the thugs. In Victoria they are standing up for the fight and fighting hard.

  4. Confessions @ #50 Saturday, June 20th, 2020 – 9:25 am

    lizzie @ #43 Saturday, June 20th, 2020 – 7:21 am

    Barney

    Who says we don’t see it?
    Where are those arguing that it should be allowed?
    Who here is arguing against the federal intervention to address the issue?

    Exactly. This is what irritates as Peg makes assumptions about PB in order to belittle Labor.

    Pegasus once said of her lack of criticism of the Greens that she finds it counterproductive to air her grievances with the Greens party here.

    Perhaps Labor voting PBers are simply following her example.

    Pegasus, always with the convenient excuse.

    My favourite is, we are ‘trying to drive her from the blog’ if we criticise her and what she does and says here! Lol. Tres convenientment. 🙂

  6. Perhaps Confessions needs to listen to ABC RN where Beattie and Greiner discussed the issue of misogyny in their parties.

    The Coalition and the Labor parties are the only parties that can currently become government. I would think what goes on with them is more important and consequential than other political parties internal machinations.
    ———–

    Assumptions are never made about me lol .

    I often link to articles “belittling” both major parties but unsurprisingly that is never acknowledged. For over a decade I scroll past most days countless comments “belittling” me and the Greens without personally commenting.

    Some, if not most PB Laborites reluctance to talk about Victorian Labor’s “industrial branch-stacking” is another indication of their hypocrisy when they can go on 24/7 about about issues within the Coalition, Greens, other parties…..

  7. The journos would undoubtedly deny it, but the coincidence of the 60 Mins report coming out just before voting starts in Eden-Monaro must have been a decision of the editors. It’s not unknown for a report to be held back, but in this case…

  8. Spoke to my union connections yesterday.

    The Age journo is now going to be busy turning attention on the CFMMEU.

    Elections are happening in October.
    The push to get rid of John Setka is still number one priority.

  9. Lizzie

    Perhaps the timing of the report was considered as a way to help the libs in by election.

    But getting rid of Somyurek was a Labor plot from start to finish.
    Nothing to do with the liberals.

  10. Taylormade @ #49 Saturday, June 20th, 2020 – 9:24 am

    Love your work Peg. Keep them coming.

    As I have observed previously, the Liberals and The Greens, bedfellows of convenience: the petit bourgeoisie joined at the hip with the Upper Middle Bogans and the Financial Elites to ratfuck the Workers.

    The Greens and the Liberals at work:

  11. You just have to laugh at the desperate attempts by the Laborites here to distract from the utter shambles that their party has become. You’d be far better off facing up to these problems rather than pretending they don’t exist – and don’t tell me that that’s what this “federal intervention” is lol. Oh yeah, lets put the mob that gave us three years of Rudd vs Gillard in charge! Brilliant idea! rofl

  12. Vic:

    I’m surprised to hear John Setka is still around. I thought he was banished from the party when Albo took over the leadership?

  13. Pegasus

    There are some here who are paranoid about the Greens and continually post against them, sometimes quite irrationally. Your fervour will not change their opinion, I’m afraid.

  14. Victoria @ #58 Saturday, June 20th, 2020 – 9:35 am

    Spoke to my union connections yesterday.

    The Age journo is now going to be busy turning attention on the CFMMEU.

    Elections are happening in October.
    The push to get rid of John Setka is still number one priority.

    Fantastic news! Mrs Setka worked for Mr Somyurek, didn’t she?

  17. Pegasus

    By its very nature, political parties, union organisations, corporations will have all sorts of characters, good and bad.
    That goes for your beloved Greens too.

    You could also argue that the main parties are much the same in many aspects.

    There are lots of areas where they are, but there are philosophical differences, and for mine, Labor win out at this point in time.

  18. lizzie

    Your fervour will not change their opinion, I’m afraid.

    That has never been an objective of mine. As I have made clear many times, my passion for change has led me to the conclusion the political duopoly needs to be shattered.

  20. lizzie @ #63 Saturday, June 20th, 2020 – 9:38 am

    Pegasus

    There are some here who are paranoid about the Greens and continually post against them, sometimes quite irrationally. Your fervour will not change their opinion, I’m afraid.

    I’m not one of them, lizzie, so don’t lump me in with them in your basket of paranoics. I simply despise sanctimonious hypocrites that flash their virginal white petticoats on the blog and purvey vinegary commentary against Labor, often carefully edited cut and paste in order to create the worst impression possible about the ALP, when they are as guilty as sin of the same offences themselves. To condone that and dismiss that as some sort of ‘paranoid’ fear of The Greens is simply laughable at best and disingenuous at worst.

    Sunshine is the best disinfectant for all parties.

  21. Jeremy Diamond @JDiamond1

    A big reason why this rally is happening tomorrow: Trump aides want to get him out of the funk he’s been in for weeks.
    “I guarantee you after Saturday, if everything goes well, he’s going to be in a much better mood,” a Trump political adviser told me

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/19/politics/trump-turn-around-losing-campaign/index.html

    Brian Tyler Cohen @briantylercohen

    There are people who are alive in Oklahoma right now who won’t be in a few weeks because Donald Trump needs people to clap for him.

  23. Pegasus @ #68 Saturday, June 20th, 2020 – 9:44 am

    lizzie

    Your fervour will not change their opinion, I’m afraid.

    That has never been an objective of mine. As I have made clear many times, my passion for change has led me to the conclusion the political duopoly needs to be shattered.

    But not The Greens and their despicable problems? Sanctimonious hypocrisy seems to be the hardest nut to crack in The Greens. Physician heal thyself!

  24. C@t

    No, I wasn’t referring to you. I find the repetition of some posters very boring and scroll past.

    Pegasus has answered me, but I was always well aware of her motivation.

    the political duopoly needs to be shattered.

  25. Victoria

    So many assumptions made about what I think and believe.

    I do not “love” the Greens. As I have stated many times, I would not hesitate to throw away my membership if the party changed its fundamental stance on asylum seekers and refugees. That applies to other issues of importance to me.

    Every organisation, including all political parties, has good and bad people in it. Those who bang on about the Greens being “so pure”, “holier than thou” and “extreme” need these attack strawmen because they do not want any dispassionate analysis of their evidence-based policies.

  27. lizzie @ #74 Saturday, June 20th, 2020 – 9:48 am

    C@t

    No, I wasn’t referring to you. I find the repetition of some posters very boring and scroll past.

    Pegasus has answered me, but I was always well aware of her motivation.

    the political duopoly needs to be shattered.

    The problem with that aim is that The Greens, an equally dysfunctional political party, is the one she wants to replace them.

  30. lizzie

    Democracy is fucked if there is ineffectual opposition to the government of the day. Currently, Labor is the only other major party in the running for government.

    As long as Labor continues to blame external sources for its problems and refuses to sort out what it stands for and who it represents it will continue to impotently flail about in the wilderness.

    The branch stacking scandal shows once again Labor is its own worst enemy.

  32. Pegasus @ #80 Saturday, June 20th, 2020 – 7:59 am

    lizzie

    Democracy is fucked if there is ineffectual opposition to the government of the day. Currently, Labor is the only other major party in the running for government.

    As long as Labor continues to blame external sources for its problems and refuses to sort out what it stands for and who it represents it will continue to impotently flail about in the wilderness.

    The branch stacking scandal shows once againLabor is its own worst enemy.

    Where is Labor blaming external sources for branch staking?

  33. Cat

    “And Labor seem to be the only political party willing to confront it head on and transparently in public in order to root it out of the party. It isn’t happening overnight but it is happening. The Greens and the Liberals and probably the Nationals too, are doing diddly squat about it except for pretending it doesn’t happen in their parties.”

    For that reason I fully support the Federal Labor intervention in Victoria, and hope it is thorough, however many names are lost. In fact, I think it was disastrous there was not a similar clean-out in NSW after the Obeid-Tripodi scandals came to light. NSW has been a weakness for Labor ever since, when it should be a strength. Have a good day all. Time for some socially distanced shopping.

  34. Scott Morrison and his ilk love Pegasus and her ilk. Her misguided mission to ‘bring down the duopoly’ simply entrenches right wing politics at the top of the heap. Chapeau, lil’ green pony.

  35. Peter Hartcher

    Only one way Scott Morrison can end a decade of political dysfunction

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/only-one-way-scott-morrison-can-end-a-decade-of-political-dysfunction-20200619-p55483.html

    Tuesday will be the 10th anniversary of the night when Julia Gillard deposed Kevin Rudd in a lightning coup to seize the prime ministership. It was destabilising enough for the Labor government, but as time went on it was revealed to be a much bigger event, with much wider consequences.

    That sudden flash of internecine knifework marked the onset of a kind of deranged feverishness that gripped both major parties and sent the country into a decade of destabilisation and despondency.

    The world was surprised, then amused, as the revolving door of Australian prime ministers spun wildly, again and again, six changes of leader in 10 years. The BBC’s Nick Bryant dubbed Canberra the “coup capital of the Western world”. Policy reform stalled. Public trust soured. Unsolved problems festered.
    :::
    “The honest answer,” says Rudd, “is not yet”. “The enduring impact on the Australian public, the cynicism created after a handful of thugs removed an elected prime minister overnight, lodged deep in the Australian psyche and hasn’t been removed.”

    And among the political class, it did three things. It “legitimised a coup culture for a decade”, it elevated the power of party faction bosses, and “it moved Australian politics from the big canvas to the microscopic canvas – it made it unfashionable to make long-term plans for the nation”. And not just in Labor, but across both major parties.
    :::
    And, he says, “the real cancer has not been removed – because factions still exist and branch stacking still exists, and branch stacking builds factional power, so the incentive to do it still exists”.
    :::
    Second, the party constitutions should ban factions. Of course, you can never stop cliques and groups forming. But the traditional Labor conferences where the “Sydney Town Hall is divided down the middle with delegates, Left and Right, to do pitched war between them, mega groups organised with their own national executives” should be forbidden, he argues.

  37. Jeremy Diamond@JDiamond1
    ·
    5h
    A big reason why this rally is happening tomorrow: Trump aides want to get him out of the funk he’s been in for weeks.
    “I guarantee you after Saturday, if everything goes well, he’s going to be in a much better mood,” a Trump political adviser told me

    Jeez they really are digging deep into the bottom of that barrel to find excuses. The reality is the polls are showing he has tanked BIGLY and his approval ratings are in the toilet. I was cautiously heartened to hear the Lincoln Project team use terms like ‘when’ Biden wins in November and not ‘if’.

    *Fingers crossed*

  38. “I do not “love” the Greens. As I have stated many times, I would not hesitate to throw away my membership if the party changed its fundamental stance on asylum seekers and refugees. That applies to other issues of importance to me.”

    ***

    This is what sets you and I apart from them. We care about the issues and are willing to vote with our feet. Most (not all) of the Laborites here care more about the Labor Party and it’s electoral prospects than they do about any of the issues, which is why they’re willing to go along with barbaric policies like offshore detention or the environmental vandalism that is Adani. I stopped giving Labor my first preference when they teamed up with the Coalition to abuse innocent asylum seekers.

  41. Russell Goulbourne
    @FrenchProfessor
    · 16h
    This isn’t as simple as HASS v STEM. Notice that university departments teaching Mathematics, Engineering and Science will receive 17% less revenue per student than they do now, Clinical Psychology 15% less, Agriculture 10% less, Nursing 8% less…

  42. FWIW I think you and Blobbit are both right Socrates.
    The issue is only countries and cultures that actually genuinely invest in education and research, not marketing and BS puffery about how they punch above their weight all the time, have opportunities for well paid and useful STEM based jobs.

    From OECD data, Australia’s spending has been diving to well under 2% of GDP on R & D under the current LNP disaster.
    With Israel, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Germany, Sweden, Austria and Denmark pretty much out in front with over 3% spent on R & D, Israel almost 5%.
    https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm

    FWIW also Greens policy aim is have Australia with 4% spending on R & D, obviously in science rich fields such as solar and renewables, smart energy systems, the former of which Aus has long been a leader in research but like so many things, totally shit at supporting the growth of new local and sustainable industry, though China, Germany and other countries has done well from it now. Captured and infected by the fossil fuel resource curse perhaps.

    Even from a year ago despite the hype, no doubt even worse now.

    Not enough jobs for science graduates challenges STEM hype
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/glut-in-demand-for-science-graduates-challenges-stem-hype-20190327-p517zj.html

    Andrew Norton, the Grattan Institute’s higher education program director, said job opportunities for science graduates, particularly the bulk studying biology, had deteriorated despite a slight improvement in the past year.

    “There has been a massive escalation in the number of science students without any corresponding increase in the number of jobs that actually require a science degree,” he said.

    “I’ve been concerned for a very long time that the message people are receiving to do science – and we saw money to encourage women into STEM in the [federal] budget – needs significant nuancing.

    “The biological sciences are not a good option even though there are opportunities in other parts of the STEM field. TEM is not a bad bit of advice, but STEM is poor advice.”

  43. There is new polling out this morning on the Northern Territory Election due in two months and Gunner is in danger of losing his majority.
    Seats given – 7 Labor, 7 Territory Alliance , 2 CLP , 2 Independant, 7 in doubt (25 seats total)
    Best case for Gunner is 12 seats, while best case for Territory Alliance is 13 seats.
    So the polling shows the rise of Territory Alliance.
    If the Territory Alliance and CLP can form a Coalition they may be a show. But going from the Johnston By-election (where if CLP had directed preferences to the Alliance, Labor would have lost) who knows.

  44. lizzie says:
    Saturday, June 20, 2020 at 9:13 am
    Does anyone have more information on the significance of finding evidence of coronavirus in the Italian sewerage before Christmas 2019? Did that come directly from Wuhan?

    There’s evidence the virus was in circulation in Wuhan, Lombardy, France, Spain and Iran at the same time ~ December 2019. The new disease was first noted in Wuhan but though it was circulating elsewhere had not been identified….makes sense…it’s a new disease.

  49. lizzie says:
    Saturday, June 20, 2020 at 10:29 am
    Thanks briefly (sorry, but I can’t think of you as anyone else).

    No problem lizzie… 🙂

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