Newspoll breakdowns broken down

Newspoll offers a deep dive into its recent polling data, offering unprecedented detail on voting intention by income, education, language and religion, along with more familiar breakdowns by state.

The Australian has published a set of geographic and demographic breakdowns compiled from multiple recent Newspoll results, once a regular quarterly feature of the pollster notable for its results at state level, but now greatly expanded as more elaborate methods are adopted in response to last year’s pollster failure. Where in the such breakdowns were limited to geography, gender and age, there are now also education (no tertiary, technical and university), household income, English or non-English speaker at home, religion (only Christian and no religion are provided, but they presumably have a small sample result for other religions).

Compared with a national result of 50-50, the state breakdowns show level pegging in New South Wales (1.8% swing to Labor), 55-45 to Labor in Victoria (1.9% to Labor), 56-44 to the Coalition in Queensland (2.4% to Labor), 55-45 ditto in Western Australia (0.6% swing to Labor, and 53-47 to Labor in South Australia (2.3%). These suggest statistically indistinguishable swings to Labor of 1.8% in New South Wales, 1.9% in Victoria, 2.4% in Queensland, 0.6% in Western Australia and 2.3% in South Australia. The primary votes are notably strong for the Greens in Queensland, up nearly three points from the election to 13%, and One Nation in Western Australia, who are on 9% after never having done better than 7% in the last term.

The age breakdowns are notable for the 62-38 lead to Labor among the 18-34 cohort, a differential quite a lot greater than that recorded by Newspoll in the previous term, which ranged from 4% to 8% compared with the present 12%. The gender gap — 52-48 to the Coalition among men and the reverse among women — is at levels not seen since the Tony Abbott prime ministership, whether due to genuine churn in voting intention or (more likely I think) a change in the pollster’s house effect.

Analysis of the education breakdowns is made easy by the fact that two-party is 50-50 for all three cohorts, with even the primary vote breakdowns recording little variation, other than university graduates being somewhat more disposed to the Greens and allergic to One Nation. As the table below illustrates, there are notable differences between these numbers and comparable findings for the Australian National University’s post-election Australian Election Study survey, which recorded a strong leftward lean among the university-educated compared with those without qualifications and, especially, those with non-tertiary qualifications.

For income, Newspoll reflects the Australian Election Study in finding the low-to-middle income cohort being Labor’s strongest, with a relative weakness among the low-income cohort presumably reflecting their lack of support in rural and regional areas. However, the distinctions are less marked in Newspoll, which credits the Coalition with 46% of the primary vote among the top household income cohort (in this case kicking in at $150,000) compared with 51% in the Australian Election Study, with Labor respectively at 34% and 32%. Differences were predictably pronounced according to language (51-49 to the Coalition among those speaking English only, 57-43 to Labor among those speaking a different language at home) and religion (58-42 to the Coalition among Christians, the reverse among the non-religious).

The results are combined from the last four Newspoll surveys, collectively conducted between March 11 and May 16, from a sample of 6032, with state sample sizes ranging from 472 (suggesting a 4.5% margin of error on the South Australian result) to 1905 (suggesting 2.2% in New South Wales.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,634 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns broken down”

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  1. It’s a race war but it’s not a race war. It’s more than that, much more. And much more complicated. Because white upper-middle class girls from Brooklyn travel 100 miles to fire bomb police.
    Their parents must be proud. No, really. I bet they are. The gals are just doing as ordered. And feeling good about themselves into the bargain. Morals are now something that you display, not that you actually do. The ideology that you believe in is your ticket to ride.

    How can it be a race war if white suburban girls are throwing Molotov cocktails at the fuzz?

  2. C@tmomma @ #2090 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 7:56 am

    Lol.

    William LeGate
    @williamlegate
    ·
    3m
    I love how no one has any idea what
    @realDonaldTrump
    is even talking about since the accounts he retweets keep getting suspended for bot activity

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    😆

    The New York Times has an article about the Twitter disputes

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/30/technology/twitter-trump-dorsey.html

    Tensions between Twitter, where Mr. Dorsey is chief executive, and Mr. Trump had been running high for days over the president’s aggressive tweets and the company’s decision to begin labeling some of them. In his latest message, Mr. Trump weighed in on the clashes between the police and protesters in Minneapolis, saying, “when the looting starts, the shooting starts.”

    A group of more than 10 Twitter officials, including lawyers and policymakers, quickly gathered virtually to review Mr. Trump’s post and debate over the messaging system Slack and Google Docs whether it pushed people toward violence.

    They soon came to a conclusion. And after midnight, Mr. Dorsey gave his go-ahead: Twitter would hide Mr. Trump’s tweet behind a warning label that said the message violated its policy against glorifying violence. It was the first time Twitter applied that specific warning to any public figure’s tweets.

    Our very own Chris Kenny has an article also

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/twitter-v-trump-dark-theatre-of-the-absurd-in-race-riots/news-story/7d75fd1d69da8fab713bab455eac648f

    in which he describes Twitter as a sewer and Mr. Trump mostly in the right.

    Just last week on Sky News I highlighted how a host of Twitter users were fantasising again about killing a clutch of right-of-centre commentators such as ­Andrew Bolt, Rita Panahi, Paul Murray, Peta Credlin and me — this stuff goes on daily unencumbered by Twitter rules.

    The invocation of violence and spreading of lies is disgraceful no matter where it comes from.

    My Smart TV knows better than to stop on Sky News – so I am now wondering (not too much) who is Rita Panahi – I know who are the other effwits – thenkew.

  3. Redlands Mowerman @ #2101 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 6:20 am

    It’s a race war but it’s not a race war. It’s more than that, much more. And much more complicated. Because white upper-middle class girls from Brooklyn travel 100 miles to fire bomb police.
    Their parents must be proud. No, really. I bet they are. The gals are just doing as ordered. And feeling good about themselves into the bargain. Morals are now something that you display, not that you actually do. The ideology that you believe in is your ticket to ride.

    How can it be a race war if white suburban girls are throwing Molotov cocktails at the fuzz?

    Ever heard of the word, solidarity?

  5. Will we see protests here?

    Street protests over the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis went global over the weekend, as demonstrators in London, Berlin and Toronto gathered under banners declaring that Black Lives Matter and called for an end to police brutality in the United States and around the world.

    In London, hundreds defied rules against large gatherings Sunday to rally at Trafalgar Square and mass outside the new U.S. Embassy on the south bank of the River Thames, where they chanted “no justice, no peace” in solidarity with U.S. movement against racial bias in the criminal justice system.

    Demonstrators there and in Berlin waved signs reading “I can’t breathe” — some of the last words that the dying Floyd, captured by an onlooker’s video, gasped out in Minneapolis as a police officer pressed his knee down on Floyd’s neck for more than eight minutes.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/george-floyd-police-protests-london-berlin-toronto/2020/05/31/cf4485e8-a357-11ea-898e-b21b9a83f792_story.html

  8. @iMusing
    ·
    11m
    been wondering when Morrison would resurface after sending Robert out to dump the #Robodebt repayment news on Friday afternoon? Today he is on racist radio announcing an announcement on redirecting the billions they cut from wage subsidies to industry sector-targeted spending.
    ***
    the pitch on racist Sydney radio was, again, to “tradies”. This is the small-business marginal-seats swinging-voter strategy Morrison has planned for the $60 billion he cut from the jobkeeper program because he could not stand seeing cash paid to workers, not even via business.

  10. I wonder if this cash grant for home renovations will allow me to get my driveway concreted.
    Fingers crossed.

  11. Kayjay

    Rita Panahi is cut from the same cloth as Miranda Devine and Janet Albrechtsen, without the charisma and without the social consciousness.

    She took over from Rowan Dean as the host of SkyNews Outsiders after he was ‘boned’ – probably all you need to know.

  12. Wall to wall media outrage this morning over the Robodebt debacle/fiasco/scandal.
    Mundo can’t see how the government will make it through the day.

  14. Joe Biden takes a knee!

    Joe Biden
    @JoeBiden

    We are a nation in pain right now, but we must not allow this pain to destroy us.

    As President, I will help lead this conversation — and more importantly, I will listen, just as I did today visiting the site of last night’s protests in Wilmington.

  16. I am not going to tut-tut at protesters because they have absolutely every right to be as angry as they are. However, a lot of privileged white leftists are trying to march to the front of this parade to either make it about themselves, be a white saviour or just live out some revolutionary cosplay. They think their actions are helping but they are going to get black people killed because that’s who the cops aim for. They’re also who the conservative politicians will blame.

    White people (and indeed any privileged group who want to ally with a movement to challenge said privilege) need to understand that being an ally means following, not overtaking. Not everything is about you.

  17. Hamish Macdonald
    @hamishNews
    ·
    21m
    Extraordinary interview with WA Treasurer Ben Wyatt on
    @RNBreakfast
    about destruction of 46,000 yr-old cave sites in Pilbara. Federal Minister says he knew but didn’t take further action. State minister didn’t know. Rio Tinto says it is “sorry” but hasn’t yet agreed to interview

  18. Fess, my apologies – I got Rowan Dean mixed up with the sacked Ross Cameron – sacked for making racist remarks on Outsiders.

    Apparently Rowan Dean still appears as a panellist, though his profile seems to be diminished

  19. C@tmomma @ #2114 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 6:36 am

    Joe Biden takes a knee!

    Joe Biden
    @JoeBiden

    We are a nation in pain right now, but we must not allow this pain to destroy us.

    As President, I will help lead this conversation — and more importantly, I will listen, just as I did today visiting the site of last night’s protests in Wilmington.
    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Alternative anti Biden caption.

    Questions have been raised about Joe Biden’s health when during a short walk he had to stop to recover his breath. 🙂

  20. sprocket

    Rita Panahi is cut from the same cloth as Miranda Devine and Janet Albrechtsen, without the charisma and without the social consciousness.

    Description.

  22. Aaron Dodd
    @AaronDodd
    ·
    11m
    Utter crap from @gladysliump
    . The VIC BRI agreement is downloadable in its entirety from the VIC govt website. The Federal one though, that the Liu’s Libs signed in 2018 is secret.

  24. “Fess, my apologies – I got Rowan Dean mixed up with the sacked Ross Cameron – sacked for making racist remarks on Outsiders.”

    ***

    They had to give Latham the boot too. Twice lol. You know you’re a real asshole when you manage to get yourself fired from a company like Sky who’s standards are already so incredibly low.

  25. Tom Nichols@RadioFreeTom
    ·
    6h
    “Re-elect me and give me a GOP House and more GOP governors and we’ll put a stop to this. You empowered the Democrats in 2018 and you got impeachment and riots. The only problem with America is that I don’t have enough power – yet”

    I could write the ad in less than a minute.

    Many are saying Team Trump will seek to emulate the 1968 adverts by Nixon.

    https://youtu.be/cEdtwQ8OguY

  28. Scomo debt & deficit disaster 2020-2056:

    It will take more than three decades to pay off the government’s surging debt, according to new analysis that urges tax reform to boost economic growth, including shifting more of the burden onto lightly taxed retirees.

    The federal budget, which was on track to post a small surplus this financial year until the corona­virus derailed the economy, will remain in deficit until 2039 ­according to PwC, which estimates that without economic ­reform, net debt won’t fall to zero until 2056.

    “An 18-year-old entering the workforce in 2020 would have ­always been working under ­federal budget surpluses had COVID-19 not emerged, and would have expected zero net debt when they reached 28 years of age,” PwC said in a statement.

    “Now that same worker cannot expect to see a budget surplus until they are at least 37 years old, with net debt not predicted to hit zero until they near 55.”

    The government postponed the budget until October. Net federal government debt had climbed to $430bn at the end of March, which is about $37bn higher than had been forecast.

    The PwC statement said the federal government relied on personal income tax for its revenue more than any other OECD government except Denmark, as well as on consumption tax, which is thought to be less economically damaging. The GST was the ­“elephant in the room”, said PwC tax partner Paul Abbey. Household spending subject to the GST has steadily fallen from almost 62 per cent to about 56 per cent.

    The tax system, which exhibits the level of “tax expenditures” in the OECD, imposed “high compliance costs due to exemptions, tax-free thresholds and the complexity of the law”, it said, warning against any rush to reform given the weak state of the economy.

    “Tax reform in the middle of an economic shock will pose further disruption to householders and businesses that are already being asked to change on many fronts, and may give rise to reforms that will need to be recalibrated once stability returns,” Mr Abbey said.

    He also said the imbalance ­between retired and non-retired Australians’ contributions needed to change: “We’ve just gone through a period where there’s been enormous damage to the economy, and a lot of that has been to protect older Australians, which is a good thing, (but) tax contributions by retired Australians are minimal compared to those of working age.”

    PwC chief economist Jeremy Thorpe said the tax system “was not equipped to adequately support the growth required”.

    “The recent lockdown, combined with social-distancing measures and closed borders, have exacerbated the ongoing challenges to increasing economic growth in the future as we continue to navigate the uncertainty currently unfolding,” he said.

    Mr Abbey said tax reform needed to be seen as fair and equitable. “This also means excluding certain taxes or concessions from any review will undermine trust and affect the acceptability of any final package of reforms,” he said.

  30. sprocket_ @ #2110 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 8:34 am

    Kayjay

    Rita Panahi is cut from the same cloth as Miranda Devine and Janet Albrechtsen, without the charisma and without the social consciousness.

    She took over from Rowan Dean as the host of SkyNews Outsiders after he was ‘boned’ – probably all you need to know.

    Thanks for that. I am delighted by your description.
    I used to highlight an occasional Janet Albrechtsen article. I was sadly completely unaware of the plusses you mentioned.

    My youngest daughter loves to chat about most anything – she regales me with information (not gossip – you understand) concerning morning TV, places, events, family, complete strangers, old hurts and the like. As we part I like to tell her that I will need at least half an hour to forget everything. I guess I need to apply this technique to the info regarding Rita Panahi.

    I’m kidding about my daughter, I love her chatter and look forward to repeats.😍

  31. Many are saying Team Trump will seek to emulate the 1968 adverts by Nixon.

    While I certainly understand the argument of how this helps Trump, I’d like to also point out that in 1968, Nixon was the challenger. Trump is the incumbent. This, combined with much other chaos, is happening under his watch. While voters might slip into a conservative shell in reaction to current events, they could just as easily be hungry to end all of the current chaos and drama by throwing out the president. “A return to normalcy” is a promise that has proven to repeatedly be a successful one in US political history – including in 1968.

  35. Confessions @ #2125 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 8:47 am

    Tom Nichols@RadioFreeTom
    ·
    6h
    “Re-elect me and give me a GOP House and more GOP governors and we’ll put a stop to this. You empowered the Democrats in 2018 and you got impeachment and riots. The only problem with America is that I don’t have enough power – yet”

    I could write the ad in less than a minute.

    Many are saying Team Trump will seek to emulate the 1968 adverts by Nixon.

    https://youtu.be/cEdtwQ8OguY

    Um, but it was a White cop, Trump supporter that killed a Black man. And the fires have been stoked by White Supremacists.

  37. Re Lizzie @ 8:31.
    ” the pitch on racist Sydney radio was, again, to “tradies”. This is the small-business marginal-seats swinging-voter strategy Morrison has planned for the $60 billion he cut from the jobkeeper program because he could not stand seeing cash paid to workers, not even via business.”

    The spreadsheet is no doubt being prepared right now.

  39. Today here in Victoria cafes, restaurants and pubs will be able to have patrons for sit down eating and drinking.

  40. Nothing else was to be expected.

    John Heilemann
    @jheil
    ·
    5h
    Our country: a tinderbox.
    Our president: a pyromaniac.
    Quote Tweet

    The Recount
    @therecount
    · 5h
    In the shadow of 100k+ COVID-19 deaths and anguished protests nationwide, Trump’s campaign strategy came into view: Burn the whole thing down.

    @jheil explains: http://recount.co/Recap

  41. In light of the current shit show. This tweet made me laugh out loud

    Rick Wilson Retweeted

    Shannon Resists Water wave
    @richones1
    ·
    4h
    Replying to
    @TheRickWilson
    When the zombies break out I hope they are those slow walking dead ones because I am exhausted.

  42. Wow!

    “There’s not always rubbish on social media. I saw a good meme on the weekend: Martin Luther King, you know, didn’t change anything by burning anything down and looting any shops.” — Scott Morrison on Ben Fordham this morning

  43. Yes folks, take George’s Urine Cure and…I think I’ll leave it there, not feeling well…horrible images..

  44. lizzie @ #2096 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 8:12 am

    The unemployed need to be taught “how to engage with the workforce”. This woman is incredibly thick.

    Julia Holman
    @JulesHolman
    · 7m
    Govt denies it’ll force people to apply for jobs that don’t exist by reinstating mutual obligation requirements. Minister @Anne_Ruston says it’s a “very light touch return to mutual obligation, we just want to get people used to engaging with the workforce” #auspol @RNBreakfast

    My long term unemployed 63 year old friend lives down in an isolated part of Tasmania. She does not drive and only has access to transport once she gets to the next large town.
    Her mutual obligation mostly has been volunteering and she was setting up for that again in a new environment when corona hit. The organization is not using the volunteers probably until summer.
    She has been told by her Job Search mob to apply for 4 jobs over the next month. Complete waste of everyones time at present but she will comply

  45. https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2020/06/01/trump-george-floyd/ – I am not sure anyone has linked this. I wondered this morning were the riots mostly in Democrat states and might be “engineered” as a taste of things to come should Trump lose, especially since the cops are firing on the media.
    Apparently the piece of shit Giuliani tweeted:
    “All Democrat-dominated cities with criminal-friendly policies. This is the future if you elect Democrats.”

  46. laughtong

    It’s just bullying. making people jump through hoops with absolutely no advantage, while the gov pays out for the “service”. Might as well give the money straight to the unemployed. The whole system, as Briefly would say, is fukkked.

  47. Terminator

    The Minnesota Governor intimated that their intelligence was suggesting that white supremacist groups had come from out of the cities to cause trouble. That could explain it.

    Can we trust the powers that be to release that type of information.
    So far, Barr, Trumps lap dog, has without any evidence straight away blamed Antifa and today the president announces they are a terrorist group.

    You gotta wonder what co ordination is going on behind the scenes.

    Nothing at all would surprise at this point. Nothing.

  48. “There’s not always rubbish on social media. I saw a good meme on the weekend: Martin Luther King, you know, didn’t change anything by burning anything down and looting any shops.” — Scott Morrison on Ben Fordham this morning

    Of course Morrison said that. Morrison is exactly the over-privileged dipshit who likes to lecture everyone about what MLK believed – even though, if he were around as PM in the 60s, he would’ve dismissed MLK as a terrorist leader or something equally as derisive.

  49. Dave the peacemaker. I’m sure America is listening. 😆

    @SkyNewsAust
    · 56m
    Liberal MP @DaveSharma has called on United States citizens to “cool it a little and just engage in peaceful protests” as the US experienced a fifth night in a row of violent protests over the death of George Floyd.

  50. Some discussion earlier on Rita Panahi over at sky news.

    She and her fellow commentators do a good rendition of fox and friends.
    They are pathetic.

    The only good thing is that sky is only watched by the die hards

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