Newspoll breakdowns broken down

Newspoll offers a deep dive into its recent polling data, offering unprecedented detail on voting intention by income, education, language and religion, along with more familiar breakdowns by state.

The Australian has published a set of geographic and demographic breakdowns compiled from multiple recent Newspoll results, once a regular quarterly feature of the pollster notable for its results at state level, but now greatly expanded as more elaborate methods are adopted in response to last year’s pollster failure. Where in the such breakdowns were limited to geography, gender and age, there are now also education (no tertiary, technical and university), household income, English or non-English speaker at home, religion (only Christian and no religion are provided, but they presumably have a small sample result for other religions).

Compared with a national result of 50-50, the state breakdowns show level pegging in New South Wales (1.8% swing to Labor), 55-45 to Labor in Victoria (1.9% to Labor), 56-44 to the Coalition in Queensland (2.4% to Labor), 55-45 ditto in Western Australia (0.6% swing to Labor, and 53-47 to Labor in South Australia (2.3%). These suggest statistically indistinguishable swings to Labor of 1.8% in New South Wales, 1.9% in Victoria, 2.4% in Queensland, 0.6% in Western Australia and 2.3% in South Australia. The primary votes are notably strong for the Greens in Queensland, up nearly three points from the election to 13%, and One Nation in Western Australia, who are on 9% after never having done better than 7% in the last term.

The age breakdowns are notable for the 62-38 lead to Labor among the 18-34 cohort, a differential quite a lot greater than that recorded by Newspoll in the previous term, which ranged from 4% to 8% compared with the present 12%. The gender gap — 52-48 to the Coalition among men and the reverse among women — is at levels not seen since the Tony Abbott prime ministership, whether due to genuine churn in voting intention or (more likely I think) a change in the pollster’s house effect.

Analysis of the education breakdowns is made easy by the fact that two-party is 50-50 for all three cohorts, with even the primary vote breakdowns recording little variation, other than university graduates being somewhat more disposed to the Greens and allergic to One Nation. As the table below illustrates, there are notable differences between these numbers and comparable findings for the Australian National University’s post-election Australian Election Study survey, which recorded a strong leftward lean among the university-educated compared with those without qualifications and, especially, those with non-tertiary qualifications.

For income, Newspoll reflects the Australian Election Study in finding the low-to-middle income cohort being Labor’s strongest, with a relative weakness among the low-income cohort presumably reflecting their lack of support in rural and regional areas. However, the distinctions are less marked in Newspoll, which credits the Coalition with 46% of the primary vote among the top household income cohort (in this case kicking in at $150,000) compared with 51% in the Australian Election Study, with Labor respectively at 34% and 32%. Differences were predictably pronounced according to language (51-49 to the Coalition among those speaking English only, 57-43 to Labor among those speaking a different language at home) and religion (58-42 to the Coalition among Christians, the reverse among the non-religious).

The results are combined from the last four Newspoll surveys, collectively conducted between March 11 and May 16, from a sample of 6032, with state sample sizes ranging from 472 (suggesting a 4.5% margin of error on the South Australian result) to 1905 (suggesting 2.2% in New South Wales.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,634 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns broken down”

  1. PeeBee @ #2600 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 8:38 pm

    “Personally I struggle to explain why many Australians detest the Greens.”

    Because they are anti-environment?

    I don’t think it’s fair to say they are anti-environment.

    However they certainly have hindered the possibility of positive action being taken, especially in regards to climate change.

  2. Nath, earlier on…

    Think of how much greater the moral victory over Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan would have been without Dresden, Hiroshima, Nagasaki and the fire bombings of residential areas.

    Idiotic post of the day from our cretinous friend, nath.

    You may as well imagine how much greater our moral victory would have been if we just dropped leaflets and never killed any Germans or Japanese. Imagine winning a war without fighting it. How good would be able to feel about ourselves then!

    As BW points out, the combined deaths from Dresden, Hiroshima and Nagasaki equalled the body count from about three slow weeks during a quiet period of the war.

    And as for “engaging with the Japanese Peace Party”… please spare us!

  3. Bushfire Bill
    says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 10:53 pm
    Idiotic post of the day from our cretinous friend, nath.
    ____________________
    calling someone a cretin will get you called a stupid douchebag.

  4. I don’t hate the Greens. I actually prefer some of their policies to Labor’s. For example, I believe that the Coal industry should be shut down as quickly as possible, with the workers offered just transition. Meanwhile the investors in coal can get stuffed. However, no one can win office saying that. We can move gradually towards it. The Coalition will defend Coal no matter what, throwing away the odd billion to pretend to be taking action. .

    What does annoy me about the Greens is their apparent “business model” of increasing their vote share by poaching the Labor vote. They don’t seem to even look at the possibility of expanding the non-conservative share of the vote and grabbing some of the increase. They’re shooting themselves in the foot (as well as shooting Labor’s foot) in this. As long as the Coalition remains in office they can have no influence on what actually gets done.

    So the Coalition commits some act of climate or environmental bastardry. The Greens seem to have some sort of balance rule compelling them to criticise the Coalition and Labor equally, in spite of the fact that Labor is out of office. It’s Judean Peoples Liberation Front stuff.

  5. Firefox says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 10:50 pm
    “Personally I struggle to explain why many Australians detest the Greens.”

    ***

    Murdoch etc…

    Murdoch has very little to do with it. Punters respond to what they see and hear from the Greens themselves. Certainly, in my case, since I haven’t read anything published by Murdoch since the 1970s, he’s had no influence on me. However, I have been observing the Greens all along.

  6. Steve

    Takes me back to my comments. The Greens also share a duty (along with Labor) to educate voters. Actually win the battle of ideas and facts. Not just take for granted a small segment of well educated voters but win new ones in places like Parramatta and Blacktown.

  7. Oh, you’re a different kettle of fish, Briefly, no doubt about that lol

    Besides, lots of posters here share articles from the Murdoch media and parrot their same narratives, so you are actually being influenced by his propaganda, as is the party you support.

  8. PeeBee says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 10:36 pm
    C, I always thought “Leander” was a class of frigate, not the actual name of a frigate.

    You could be right. I don’t know, but have recounted the events related to me without embellishing or checking.

    It’s only been brought up because of the birth of a beloved boy just recently.

    I’ll investigate.

    Thanks

  9. F…:I can assure you I’ve never read anything published or broadcast by any Murdoch platform since the 1970s.

    Not a thing. I despise Murdoch and do not trust him at all.

    I never check the links published here to Murdoch sites. They are worthless.

  10. F….you take me for an idiot. I have a curious mind and know how to use it. I’m literate. I can tell a fraudulent line a mile off. I’m also politically fluent.

    You think I’ve been taken in by Murdoch. The fact of the matter is I’ve not been taken in by either Murdoch or the Greens.

    You should learn not to be so damned presumptuous. You know fuck all.

  11. C @ #2613 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 9:27 pm

    PeeBee says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 10:36 pm
    C, I always thought “Leander” was a class of frigate, not the actual name of a frigate.

    You could be right. I don’t know, but have recounted the events related to me without embellishing or checking.

    It’s only been brought up because of the birth of a beloved boy just recently.

    I’ll investigate.

    Thanks

    I’m pretty sure in the US Navy the name of the first ship in a new class is taken as that class of ships’ name.

    Not sure if that is true for other Navies.

  12. Oh don’t worry, I didn’t need you to tell me you haven’t been taken in by the Greens. We all got that message awhile ago I think lol

  13. Detesting Greens is much more of a feature of a particular demographic that haunts PB or has partisan affiliation to one of the major political parties that have sold out via donations and post-political sinecures in the business lobbying world. Fossil fuels, coal, gas, even banks and casinos, any global lucrative industry will do it seems.

    The tediousness of the rationalisations some people make on PB about ‘teh Greens’ are comedic and rarely worth responding to.

    Voters put their numbers in the box, not parties, as much as the autocratically minded might wish. If Labor or any other party is losing votes to Greens it is because individuals have made a call for what they saw would represent their views and interests better at the time.

    Anyone who votes against their own interests and views on what is best for their community, country and the world for nostalgia or blind partisanship, as I’ve seen proclaimed here by a few and fairly regularly, seems foolish to expect any delivery of their views.

  14. BiTB….thanks….considering the NZ Navy possibly consisted of the single frigate and a couple of patrol boats or corvettes….one name was enough 🙂

    The relative involved served on two other vessels as well which were both sunk – destroyed by mines – in the English Channel. He was a most improbable survivor.

    I met him once. Lovely bloke. Very kind. Chain smoker. Went blind eventually, like his sisters, and died of a stroke some time ago. Very kind man.

  15. Quoll @ #2621 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 9:51 pm

    Detesting Greens is much more of a feature of a particular demographic that haunts PB …

    Probably true, I doubt many out in voter land would sit down and consider what the Greens have achieved towards their stated goals as a Parliamentary Party.

    About the only one I can think of is getting some bums on seats in Canberra.

  16. Quoll says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 11:51 pm
    Detesting Greens is much more of a feature of a particular demographic that haunts PB or has partisan affiliation to one of the major political parties that have sold out via donations and post-political sinecures in the business lobbying world. Fossil fuels, coal, gas, even banks and casinos, any global lucrative industry will do it seems.

    You’d be quite mistaken to include me in that set. I have no connections with the fossil fuel sector, occupy no sinecure and have never received any donations of any kind whatsoever. I’m an unreconstructed Whitlam-era Labor voice who thinks the Greens have fucking wrecked everything.

  17. The greatest problem is not that voters are attracted to the Greens from Labor. The really insurmountable problem is that the Greens drive Labor voters into the arms of the Tories. They have thereby utterly fucking smashed the anti-Tory plurality.

    As a result none of the things that are hoped for by either the Greens or Labor will be realised. The Greens have done this. They have done it knowingly, deliberately and with alacrity.

  18. This story is weird.

    You’d think after 2 tests, a positive and a negative, you’d run a third one.

    Nathan Turner did not have coronavirus, Queensland Health confirms, after miner’s death prompted widespread testing in Blackwater

    Mr Turner’s death sparked a major health emergency in Central Queensland to trace the source of the infection.

    Two tests were conducted after his death with both a positive and a negative result.

    The second result was deemed to have been contaminated.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-01/coronavirus-queensland-nathan-turner-no-covid-blackwater-autopsy/12307546

  19. Unfortunately the whole debate in the US about race hasn’t evovled into a debate about economic repression and the culture of greed, selfishness and trickle down economics – to the point of having third world conditions – and not just among black people. Unfortunately a lot of US citizens just can’t see how horribly wrong their culture is.

    Old expression: “The last thing a fish will ever see is the water”.

  20. mundo @ #2415 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 2:12 pm

    Porter/Morrison/Robert; BWAHAHA HA HAAHHAHAHA HA HA HAHAHAHA……

    What, no mention of “Taylor, Angus”? Perhaps he has no connection to robodebt, but this is the sound coming from his office:

    BWAHAHA HA HAAHHAHAHA HA HA HAHAHAHA……

    For Taylor this isn’t the first offence either. Perhaps he’s not part of the main gang though. Perhaps he has his own independent Cayman’s registered company that looks after stuff like that for him? Perhaps?

  21. I have been watching live coverage of the protests in the USA. The violence, dis-order, rioting and possibly you can add looting to the mix, has been by the cops.

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