Newspoll breakdowns broken down

Newspoll offers a deep dive into its recent polling data, offering unprecedented detail on voting intention by income, education, language and religion, along with more familiar breakdowns by state.

The Australian has published a set of geographic and demographic breakdowns compiled from multiple recent Newspoll results, once a regular quarterly feature of the pollster notable for its results at state level, but now greatly expanded as more elaborate methods are adopted in response to last year’s pollster failure. Where in the such breakdowns were limited to geography, gender and age, there are now also education (no tertiary, technical and university), household income, English or non-English speaker at home, religion (only Christian and no religion are provided, but they presumably have a small sample result for other religions).

Compared with a national result of 50-50, the state breakdowns show level pegging in New South Wales (1.8% swing to Labor), 55-45 to Labor in Victoria (1.9% to Labor), 56-44 to the Coalition in Queensland (2.4% to Labor), 55-45 ditto in Western Australia (0.6% swing to Labor, and 53-47 to Labor in South Australia (2.3%). These suggest statistically indistinguishable swings to Labor of 1.8% in New South Wales, 1.9% in Victoria, 2.4% in Queensland, 0.6% in Western Australia and 2.3% in South Australia. The primary votes are notably strong for the Greens in Queensland, up nearly three points from the election to 13%, and One Nation in Western Australia, who are on 9% after never having done better than 7% in the last term.

The age breakdowns are notable for the 62-38 lead to Labor among the 18-34 cohort, a differential quite a lot greater than that recorded by Newspoll in the previous term, which ranged from 4% to 8% compared with the present 12%. The gender gap — 52-48 to the Coalition among men and the reverse among women — is at levels not seen since the Tony Abbott prime ministership, whether due to genuine churn in voting intention or (more likely I think) a change in the pollster’s house effect.

Analysis of the education breakdowns is made easy by the fact that two-party is 50-50 for all three cohorts, with even the primary vote breakdowns recording little variation, other than university graduates being somewhat more disposed to the Greens and allergic to One Nation. As the table below illustrates, there are notable differences between these numbers and comparable findings for the Australian National University’s post-election Australian Election Study survey, which recorded a strong leftward lean among the university-educated compared with those without qualifications and, especially, those with non-tertiary qualifications.

For income, Newspoll reflects the Australian Election Study in finding the low-to-middle income cohort being Labor’s strongest, with a relative weakness among the low-income cohort presumably reflecting their lack of support in rural and regional areas. However, the distinctions are less marked in Newspoll, which credits the Coalition with 46% of the primary vote among the top household income cohort (in this case kicking in at $150,000) compared with 51% in the Australian Election Study, with Labor respectively at 34% and 32%. Differences were predictably pronounced according to language (51-49 to the Coalition among those speaking English only, 57-43 to Labor among those speaking a different language at home) and religion (58-42 to the Coalition among Christians, the reverse among the non-religious).

The results are combined from the last four Newspoll surveys, collectively conducted between March 11 and May 16, from a sample of 6032, with state sample sizes ranging from 472 (suggesting a 4.5% margin of error on the South Australian result) to 1905 (suggesting 2.2% in New South Wales.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,634 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns broken down”

  1. Perhaps if Scotty from Marketing had not oversold it, perhaps if it was actually effective and perhaps if there was more trust in this government, The App might have been a useful tool…………..
    In the meantime it will join other Liberal ploys (such as the frig magnets —-“Be Alert Not Alarmed” crap was it not?) on the junk heap of cheap gimmicks for the plebs…………………….from the LNP…..

    I think the problem is that they are selling the app as a way to avoid becoming infected. Unintentional I’m sure, but that’s the way the ads come across: download the app to stay safe. It’s false advertising.

  2. “In the meantime it will join other Liberal ploys (such as the frig magnets —-“Be Alert Not Alarmed” crap was it not?) on the junk heap of cheap gimmicks for the plebs…………………….from the LNP…..”

    Back in Black Mugs anyone?? 🙂

  3. R
    I am not an apologist for the US.
    Where it has done evil, I am ready to say that it has done evil.
    I studied US history for my undergrad degree and have read US history incessantly for the past 50 years.
    It is a curious mix of the best and the worst.
    What gets me down is that the worst in the US is in the ascendant, that this does not seem to be a temporary blip, but a trend.

  4. sprocket

    All those innocent women and children in Japan, unfortunately had menfolk deployed across Asia who killed, humiliated, raped, starved, enslaved millions of people
    ———

    Weren’t most of those “menfolk” rendered relatively powerless by 1945 due to death or imprisonment?

  5. Unit 731 got closed down when Japan surrendered after Nagasaki..

    “Unit 731 (Japanese: 731部隊, Hepburn: Nana-san-ichi Butai), also referred to as Detachment 731, the 731 Regiment, Manshu Detachment 731, The Kamo Detachment,[3]:198 Ishii Unit,[5] Ishii Detachment[5] or the Ishii Company, was a covert biological and chemical warfare research and development unit of the Imperial Japanese Army that undertook lethal human experimentation during the Second Sino-Japanese War (1937–1945) of World War II. It was responsible for some of the most notorious war crimes carried out by Imperial Japan. Unit 731 was based at the Pingfang district of Harbin, the largest gas chamber in the Japanese puppet state of Manchukuo (now Northeast China), and had active branch offices throughout China and Southeast Asia.

    The program received generous support from the Japanese government up to the end of the war in 1945. Unit 731 and the other Units of the “Epidemic Prevention and Water Purification Department” were biological weapon production, testing, deployment and storage facilities. They routinely tested on human beings (who were referred to internally as “logs”). Additionally, the biological weapons were tested in the field on cities and towns in China. Estimates of those killed by Unit 731 and its related programs range up to half a million people.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_731

  6. Confessions @ #2523 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 7:56 pm

    Haven’t upgraded my mobile in nearly 8 years, and am disappointed the diversity of devices and brands is now almost zero, limited essentially to iPhone or Samsung! Neither are much chop in my opinion.

    Buy an Oppo. All the bells and whistles of the big name brands at a fraction of the price. You can afford to buy a top of the line model outright and then only have to pay for data each month.

  7. “The App is an artifice. It’s only use is to enable a slick ad.”

    ***

    You mean this latest cringe-inducing gambling ad by TAB?

    Betting company TAB has told punters that if they want to come out to “play”, they will need to download the Government’s COVID Safe app.

    The stirring ad shows an empty stadium overrun by seagulls, and attempts to remind consumers of the joys they are missing due to the current restrictions.

    Watch: https://mumbrella.com.au/tab-pushes-for-punters-to-download-governments-covid-safe-app-629347

  8. boerwar @ #2545 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 8:48 pm

    ‘clem attlee says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 8:39 pm

    Boer, I don’t base my analysis on heroic assumptions. Also, there was a peace group within the Japanese government, one well known to the US. They made no attempt to work with them. Also, why drop a second bomb? The government was completely dysfunctional in the immediate aftermath of the Hiroshima bomb, but the US dropped the second one because they felt that the Japanese did not react quickly enough. Of course all those women and children were culpable weren’t they?’

    Ah, heroic assumptions! Bushido?

    You can do the math yourself, Clem. Just tally the total civilian casualties during the eight years of the Pacific War with the number of days of the war and it comes to roughly 10,000 a day.

    Most of those civilians were not Japanese, of course. Two and a half million Javanese starved to death while the IJA hoarded food during 1942 alone. Of all the people over the years I have seen talk about Hiroshima not a single one mentions the 1942 massacre of millions of Javanese civilians. The dead littered the streets.
    A million civilians died in Burma. I bet you did not know about that, either. But you do know about Hiroshima!
    You know all about history.
    A million died in the Battle of Manila. The Japanese would not allow the civilians to leave the city. In fact, they wired lots of them up with barbed wire. But you DO know about Hiroshima.
    The Japanese military had known for years that they were beaten militarily.

    But, as anyone who has actually studied Japanese history knows, the military were going to hang out for as long as possible in order to try and force some face saving agreement.

    And if 10,000 innocent men, women and children a day were the price, why, the Japanese military had been exacting that price for eight long years. No sweat.

    As good a post as I’ve ever seen on the blog.

    Thank you!

  9. ‘Rakali says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 8:54 pm

    sprocket

    All those innocent women and children in Japan, unfortunately had menfolk deployed across Asia who killed, humiliated, raped, starved, enslaved millions of people
    ———

    Weren’t most of those “menfolk” rendered relatively powerless by 1945 due to death or imprisonment?’

    Unfortunately, no. The IJA still controlled much of SEA, Korea and China. Many of the areas still controlled by the IJA were subject to famine, slave labour, sexual servitude, and random and rather nasty executions.

    If you doubt what the Japanese military were prepared to do on the Home Islands, read any detailed account of the Battle of Okinawa and see what happened to the civilians, courtesy of the IJA.

    If you have a strong stomach you can view footage of mothers carrying their children with them suiciding by jumping off sea cliffs. Those who weep tears about Hiroshima should all be forced to watch that footage, IMO.

  10. Field Marshall Boerwar’s figures are about as accurate as his claim that the Greens have remained at 10% ever since the Brisbane local election in 1985 or whatever!

    A million died in the Battle of Manila.

    An estimated 100,000 to 240,000 Filipinos civilians were killed
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Manila_(1945)

    A million civilians died in Burma.

    By April 1945, the Allies had driven out the Japanese. Subsequently, negotiations began between the Burmese and the British for independence. Under Japanese occupation, 170,000 to 250,000 civilians died.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_occupation_of_Burma

  11. And we continue to learn more about Chairman Dan.
    A long serving Andrews government staffer with links to the highest level of the Chinese Communist Party’s United Front Work Department has posted a series of articles and videos on social media suggesting coronavirus was created by the US and transported to China by the US Army.
    The comments from Nancy Yang who has worked as an electorate officer for the Andrew’s government MPs since 2013.
    In March, Ms Yang who had worked as a visa officer for the Chinese consulate in Melbourne posted an article on her Facebook page under the heading ” Chinese official suggests US Army to blame for outbreak”.
    Bracks Labor government minister Andre Haermeyer commented on Ms Yang’s post saying ” Nancy, China is not to blame for the virus, but the dictatorship in Beijing is to blame for lying to the World Health Organisation and persecuting the Doctors that blew the whistle on it.”
    “Had they spent that time immediately trying to contain it rather than cover it up, it would have been contained to the region of origin and we would not have thousands dying in China and around the world” Haermeyer comments that received no response from Ms Yang.
    There are photos of Ms Yang with Andrews, Bill Shorten and Julia Gillard.

  12. Pegasus says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 2:11 pm
    BW

    It would be good if she does.
    Not according to briefly. If the Greens do we will all be fucked.

    You have the wrong tense in that sentence. We are already fucked in LibKin Garden.

    We have a quarter of a century to observe. It’s clear as can be. The Greens are the Party of Misplaced Desire and Spent Breath.

    You must know this by now.

  13. In more pleasant developments, the NY Times have researched and interviewed 100 former associates of Tara Reade..

    “To better understand Ms. Reade’s tumultuous journey to the roiling center of the presidential campaign, The New York Times interviewed nearly 100 friends, relatives, co-workers and neighbors and reviewed court records. What emerged was a shambolic life in which Ms. Reade, through her own pluck and smarts and powers of persuasion, overcame an unsettled and abusive childhood to find opportunities on the big stages of acting, politics and law. She won praise for what friends took as a sincere commitment to helping other abuse victims and to animal rescue.

    “She was very funny and very engaging and completely well educated, intelligent,” said one former friend and co-worker, Deborah Ayres. But, she added, there was also “this other side that didn’t add up.”

    It was there, on that other side, that those opportunities would dissipate amid new blows of abuse, acrimony and regret, leading to Ms. Reade’s more recent scramble for work as a pet sitter and census field supervisor. (That, too, would end in an allegation of maltreatment against her bosses.) She had “a heavy, dark sadness to her,” another friend recalled.

    In many ways, The Times’s findings comport with the autobiography Ms. Reade, now 56, has rendered in cinematic detail across blog posts, online essays and court statements. But in the dramatic retelling of her life story she has also shown a tendency to embellish — a role as a movie extra is presented as a break; her title of “staff assistant” with clerical responsibilities in Mr. Biden’s office becomes “legislative assistant” when his shepherding of the Violence Against Women Act is an asset for her expert-witness testimony in court.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/31/us/politics/tara-reade-joe-biden.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

  14. C
    I am seeking to enliven and motivate the environmentalists who are still supporters of the Greens to act.

    Environmentalists get the links between population, migration and sustainability.

    But for some reason they Greens environmentalists have allowed the Party to fob off this basic set of policies.

    I am hopeful that that they can pressure Bandt to actually carry out the official Greens policy. The unique thing about this policy is that it does not require a Greens government or the Greens to have the BOP. They can do it while they are in the political wilderness.

    Further, if the Greens do this debate, and the resulting policy development properly, they would have the ethical basis for holding the population and migration blowtorch to the bellies of the majors.

  15. When was the last time other Countries openly mocked the US?

    First China and now Iran.

    We’ve already reported how China’s state media is using these protests as an opportunity to goad Donald Trump and deflect from its own government’s treatment of Hong Kong and protesters in the city.

    Iran is also getting in on the act. Its foreign ministry spokesman has just given this press conference that observers are saying is the first he’s ever given in English, in which he directly addresses American protesters with messages of support.

    Abas Aslani
    @AbasAslani
    #Iran’s Foreign Ministry spox to American people: The world has heard your outcry over the State oppression. The world is standing with you…The American regime is perusing violence & bullying at home & abroad…Stop violence against your people & let them breathe.#GeorgeFloyd

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/may/31/george-floyd-protests-latest-news-riots-us-cities-donald-trump-police-brutality-live

  16. a r says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 9:12 pm

    Historyintime @ #2532 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 8:19 pm

    The Japanese and the Germans (in Dresden) were awful genocidal supporting populations.

    They were civilians.

    But war is hell. There are no right answers, just victory or death.
    _____________
    Think of how much greater the moral victory over Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan would have been without Dresden, Hiroshima, Nagasaki and the fire bombings of residential areas.

  17. Boer, I fully understand and commend your efforts. They are without equal and you are an example to all the bludgers.

    I’m a lot less generous to the LibKin. I think they’ve forfeited the opportunities you’re still prepared to extend to them. You’re a full grown oak among the saplings here.

  18. michael @ #2563 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 9:05 pm

    And we continue to learn more about Chairman Dan.
    A long serving Andrews government staffer with links to the highest level of the Chinese Communist Party’s United Front Work Department has posted a series of articles and videos on social media suggesting coronavirus was created by the US and transported to China by the US Army.
    The comments from Nancy Yang who has worked as an electorate officer for the Andrew’s government MPs since 2013.
    In March, Ms Yang who had worked as a visa officer for the Chinese consulate in Melbourne posted an article on her Facebook page under the heading ” Chinese official suggests US Army to blame for outbreak”.
    Bracks Labor government minister Andre Haermeyer commented on Ms Yang’s post saying ” Nancy, China is not to blame for the virus, but the dictatorship in Beijing is to blame for lying to the World Health Organisation and persecuting the Doctors that blew the whistle on it.”
    “Had they spent that time immediately trying to contain it rather than cover it up, it would have been contained to the region of origin and we would not have thousands dying in China and around the world” Haermeyer comments that received no response from Ms Yang.
    There are photos of Ms Yang with Andrews, Bill Shorten and Julia Gillard.

    yawn!

  19. nath @ #2571 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 9:18 pm

    a r says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 9:12 pm

    Historyintime @ #2532 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 8:19 pm

    The Japanese and the Germans (in Dresden) were awful genocidal supporting populations.

    They were civilians.

    But war is hell. There are no right answers, just victory or death.
    _____________
    Think of how much greater the moral victory over Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan would have been without Dresden, Hiroshima, Nagasaki and the fire bombings of residential areas.

    There’s at least a year’s worth of psychological analysis of the German and Japanese mindset that explains why they were required. It wasn’t pretty but it was effective.

  20. “We are already fucked in LibKin Garden.”

    ***

    So you keep telling us! Repeatedly. Multiple times daily. Maybe you should leave this garden of yours?

  21. Given what is happening to America as we speak, I believe Australia should become closer to China for purely pragmatic reasons. Especially given that China is becoming a superpower and the American Empire is collapsing. It is obvious in how countries dealt with the COVID-19 pandemic, China very well, America extremely poorly.

    So it is no surprise that the Andrews Labor government in Victoria has decided to sign up for the Road and Belt project.

  22. Cud, quite a bit on Russia and Putin – she says she was researching for her book. Some excerpts..

    “She told visitors about a Russian man with whom she was video-chatting online.

    The relationship was active when she made her first public accusations of harassment against Mr. Biden, according to two women who saw photos of the man, whom they took to be a love interest. Neither could recall his name. The relationship lasted through the summer, recalled one of the women, who would speak only on the condition of anonymity.

    “She had a picture of a guy and said that they had been communicating,” recalled the other woman, Rachel Sabajo, a former housemate of Ms. Reade who confessed to developing a personal aversion to her. “I said, ‘Why Russia?’ And she said, ‘Putin is so dreamy, I really get him.’”

    Ms. Reade denied having a romantic relationship with anyone in Russia, saying her online activity was part of her book research. She said Ms. Sabajo was trying to besmirch her, McCarthy style, because of personal animus, which she said Ms. Sabajo had exhibited through harassing messages. (Ms. Sabajo denied sending them.)
    …..
    “Her online embrace of Russia seemed only to intensify. After the release of the Mueller report documenting Russian meddling in 2016, Ms. Reade posted an essay that decried xenophobia and opened with the Putin spokesman Dmitri Peskov quoting a proverb: “It is very hard to find a black cat in a dark room, especially if it is not there.”

  23. nath @ #2569 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 9:18 pm

    Think of how much greater the moral victory of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan would have been without Dresden, Hiroshima, Nagasaki and the fire bombings of residential areas.

    Nobody was fighting for a moral victory. If the US had jumped in before they got attacked you might have been able to make that case, but they didn’t. The Allies were doing self-defense against an unprovoked belligerent, not “teach the racist barbarians a lesson in civility and ethics”.

    If someone hits you, you hit them back. If you’re smart about it you fight like Ender Wiggin and hit them back so hard they can never strike you again.

  24. Thanks C@t. I’ve never heard of Oppo but will check it out.

    Hey! I suggested Oppo before C@t jumped in. Where is my thanks?

  25. 😆

    Donald J. Trump ᵖᵃʳᵒᵈʸ
    @realDonaldTrFan

    Fake News is begging ME to address the nation! NO! I’m in MY Bunker! NOT coming out! TOO DANGEROUS! Protestors Are EVERYWHERE!! Yelling! Carrying SIGNS! Somebody else can address the nation! Obama? Biden? Melania? They can do it! They don’t have Bunkers!
    #BunkerTrump #BunkerBoy

  26. a r
    says:

    If someone hits you, you hit them back. If you’re smart about it you fight like Ender Wiggin and hit them back so hard they can never strike you again.
    ___________
    I agree, but while you are waiting to hit them back you don’t burn their house down with their children inside.

  27. On the matter of whether violence/s can be thought of as equal….

    During WW2 one of my relatives, just barely 18yo in 1939, had enlisted in the NZ Navy. He was aboard the NZ frigate “Leander” when, as we believe, it was sailing from NZ to Great Britain, where the NZ personnel would join the Royal Navy in preparation for the landings in 1944.

    As the ship advanced scross the Pacific it was attacked by Japanese aircraft. Badly hit, the frigate took many casualties. My relative was among the survivors and was ordered to retrieve the dead from the engine room. While he was carrying buckets of limbs from below, a Japanese plane reappeared, apparently on a course to torpedo the Leander.

    At that point an Australian aircraft appeared. Seemingly unable to shoot down the Japanese plane, the Australian pilot flew his aircraft directly into the Japanese attacker. Both planes were destroyed in the collision and all the aircrew were killed.

    This action saved the Leander and its crew.

    I only learned about this on Saturday when it was related to me by a most venerable and adored Aunt, who has had this story in safe-keeping for more than 75 years. She decided to relate it because of the birth of a grandson in London, who has, among his names, also been called Leander.

    It’s too much to think of really, the losses taken and the courage found. I’ve been spared it all. I cannot number the blessings implied by this. Instead, I’ve been drawing today….the riverside, with the many tuarts on the ridge and the dense scrub on the steeply ramped banks. And the boats and the small beach.

  28. Lars Von Trier
    says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 9:45 pm
    So she’s a bit nutty and a bit slutty? Thats essentially what your saying Bob Sprocket.
    ____________
    Imagine being so weird that you take sides on a sexual assault allegation from the other side of the world and actually post stuff that makes the woman look bad. Imagine being such a cretin.

  29. You know I like, at least in some respects, every poster on this blog …. apart from LVT who is just abusive and boring.

  30. Historyintime says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 10:03 pm
    You know I like, at least in some respects, every poster on this blog …. apart from LVT who is just abusive and boring.
    ___________________
    That’s ok I don’t care that much for your comments either, but hey each to their own.

  31. For the record, posters are entirely within their liberty to comment on major presidential election campaign issues like the Tara Reade matter. They are not however, absent provocation, allowed to call other commenters “cretins” for doing so — particularly in the case of a stupid douchebag like Nath.

  32. I argue against Labor being anything less than hostile against the Australian Greens. Although I would argue that Labor can easily ‘steal’ Greens like the Coalition did ‘steal’ One Nation ones.

    Because the Greens are detested* by many Australians, even those who consider themselves as ‘Progressive’ in their politics. Therefore, I argue that Kevin Rudd certainly knew this fact and tried to negotiate with the Coalition instead of the Greens with the CPRS.

    Personally I struggle to explain why many Australians detest the Greens. I suspect is many Australians are at least a little bit a bit racist and misogynistic. Especially given that the Australian Greens are for the greater part opposed to racism and misogyny.

  33. I never claimed Sprocket was not allowed to post on the issue. I just imagined what kind of person would do so. In the same way I could imagine what kind of moderator can randomly pick on someone to abuse, in some kind of gangster roleplay with language to match. Certainly an odd one. Whose turn will it be next? And for what random offence. Calling Sporcket a cretin? We all await with anticipation.

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