Newspoll breakdowns broken down

Newspoll offers a deep dive into its recent polling data, offering unprecedented detail on voting intention by income, education, language and religion, along with more familiar breakdowns by state.

The Australian has published a set of geographic and demographic breakdowns compiled from multiple recent Newspoll results, once a regular quarterly feature of the pollster notable for its results at state level, but now greatly expanded as more elaborate methods are adopted in response to last year’s pollster failure. Where in the such breakdowns were limited to geography, gender and age, there are now also education (no tertiary, technical and university), household income, English or non-English speaker at home, religion (only Christian and no religion are provided, but they presumably have a small sample result for other religions).

Compared with a national result of 50-50, the state breakdowns show level pegging in New South Wales (1.8% swing to Labor), 55-45 to Labor in Victoria (1.9% to Labor), 56-44 to the Coalition in Queensland (2.4% to Labor), 55-45 ditto in Western Australia (0.6% swing to Labor, and 53-47 to Labor in South Australia (2.3%). These suggest statistically indistinguishable swings to Labor of 1.8% in New South Wales, 1.9% in Victoria, 2.4% in Queensland, 0.6% in Western Australia and 2.3% in South Australia. The primary votes are notably strong for the Greens in Queensland, up nearly three points from the election to 13%, and One Nation in Western Australia, who are on 9% after never having done better than 7% in the last term.

The age breakdowns are notable for the 62-38 lead to Labor among the 18-34 cohort, a differential quite a lot greater than that recorded by Newspoll in the previous term, which ranged from 4% to 8% compared with the present 12%. The gender gap — 52-48 to the Coalition among men and the reverse among women — is at levels not seen since the Tony Abbott prime ministership, whether due to genuine churn in voting intention or (more likely I think) a change in the pollster’s house effect.

Analysis of the education breakdowns is made easy by the fact that two-party is 50-50 for all three cohorts, with even the primary vote breakdowns recording little variation, other than university graduates being somewhat more disposed to the Greens and allergic to One Nation. As the table below illustrates, there are notable differences between these numbers and comparable findings for the Australian National University’s post-election Australian Election Study survey, which recorded a strong leftward lean among the university-educated compared with those without qualifications and, especially, those with non-tertiary qualifications.

For income, Newspoll reflects the Australian Election Study in finding the low-to-middle income cohort being Labor’s strongest, with a relative weakness among the low-income cohort presumably reflecting their lack of support in rural and regional areas. However, the distinctions are less marked in Newspoll, which credits the Coalition with 46% of the primary vote among the top household income cohort (in this case kicking in at $150,000) compared with 51% in the Australian Election Study, with Labor respectively at 34% and 32%. Differences were predictably pronounced according to language (51-49 to the Coalition among those speaking English only, 57-43 to Labor among those speaking a different language at home) and religion (58-42 to the Coalition among Christians, the reverse among the non-religious).

The results are combined from the last four Newspoll surveys, collectively conducted between March 11 and May 16, from a sample of 6032, with state sample sizes ranging from 472 (suggesting a 4.5% margin of error on the South Australian result) to 1905 (suggesting 2.2% in New South Wales.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,634 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns broken down”

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  1. And the consequences for Home Affairs? As usual? None.

    The auditor-general has criticised the processes behind the awarding of multi-million-dollar contracts by the Department of Home Affairs for security services on Manus Island, saying the Government had not demonstrated value for money.

    (The audit office found procurement practices by Home Affairs were “largely appropriate”
    However, “A departmental officer had multiple roles during the procurement process and the conflict of interest resulting from this was not acknowledged or addressed.”)

    Ahead of last year’s federal election, Labor demanded an investigation into the procurement of government contracts by the department, after it was revealed a small security firm registered to a shack on Kangaroo Island won a $420 million contract to undertake security and cleaning services at offshore detention centres in Papua New Guinea.

    In calling for an urgent probe, Labor questioned why little-known company Paladin Group was chosen, describing it as an “inexperienced and unknown company”.

    But in its findings released on Thursday, the Australian National Audit Office (ANAO) found the department’s management of contracts for services on both Manus and Nauru since 2017 were “largely appropriate”.

    “Procurement activities for the provision of garrison support and welfare services on Manus Island and Nauru were largely undertaken in accordance with [Commonwealth procurement rules],” the report stated.

    However, it also found a raft of deficiencies, saying the department failed to demonstrate that contacts for services on Manus Island, including the controversial agreement with Paladin, were value for money.

    “The department did not demonstrate the achievement of value for money for the PNG procurements,” the report stated.

  2. Barney
    On those numbers the ALP would gain Bass (Tas) Boothbys (SA) and Chisholm (Vic) but if we look at the demographics there would be a few other seats that could fall if that was the election night swings.

  3. On uniform swings and current margins, Labor would only gain Chisholm and maybe Bass. There will be redistributions though, probably including seats being added in Victoria and chopped in Western Australia and the Northern Territory.

  4. Premier Daniel Andrews will call for a truce when state, territory and Commonwealth leaders gather for their regular national cabinet meeting on Friday, after a sustained attack in recent weeks by the federal government over Victoria’s COVID-19 response and its dealings with China.

    Mr Andrews will also warn his counterparts that commuters are flooding back onto the state’s roads and public transport system, raising alarm in the state government that the “work from home” message has stopped getting through.

    The Victorian leader will also warn the cross-government meeting that further easing of lockdown restrictions in the state next week could be in jeopardy if people return to work too soon.

    Mr Andrews will present figures showing hundreds of thousands more people have been driving and catching public transport around Victoria in the past week, making physical distancing difficult and risking the spread of COVID-19.

    The Premier will urge Prime Minister Scott Morrison and other state and territory leaders to work together and double down on the work-from-home message.

  5. Australia’s first Chinese-born MP has accused Beijing of undermining Hong Kong’s autonomy as tough new national security laws designed to stamp out dissent sail through China’s National People’s Congress.

    In her first comments on Hong Kong since protests erupted over the new legislation this week, Liberal MP Gladys Liu hit out at the Chinese Communist Party for betraying a legally binding agreement that guaranteed its freedoms.

    “As someone who was born and raised in Hong Kong, I am saddened by the current violence and I am concerned about the proposed laws,” Ms Liu told The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.

  6. A version of President Donald Trump’s impending executive order governing social media platforms was leaked to several media outlets late Wednesday night and was promptly posted on social media platforms.

    …Trump’s executive order takes aim at what he’s called social media platforms’ infringement on freedom of speech and asks the FCC to examine and then propose adjustments to regulation under Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act. Section 230 protects online platforms from liability for what their users post online; by adding something such as a “fact check” to a post by a user, Trump’s order contends, Facebook and Twitter are engaging in the act of editorializing, which should make them lose their exemption.

    …The order comes after days of Trump’s boiling outrage over Twitter’s decision to append a fact check to his verifiably false tweets about voter fraud; he spent much of Thursday raging about the decision and alleging that his free speech had been violated.

    Twitter’s decision was the first step it’d taken against Trump’s tendency to spread misinformation and came as the company was asked to take down several of the president’s other posts, fanning the flames of a debunked conspiracy theory about the 2001 death of an employee of then-Rep. Joe Scarborough, who now as an MSNBC host is often critical of Trump’s behavior.

    Trump’s order could make social media platforms more liable for what users post and subject them to more lawsuits.

    Trump’s answer to everything he doesn’t like, oppression by lawsuit.

  7. The federal government is rushing to suppress an outbreak of workplace flexibility linked to the COVID-19 crisis.

    Symptoms include increased productivity, morale, and energy, and decreased stress, commute times, and micro-management.

  8. C@tmomma @ #10 Friday, May 29th, 2020 – 4:41 am

    Trump’s answer to everything he doesn’t like, oppression by lawsuit.

    Not in this case.

    Here he is actually making a law for his own personal reasons.

    Basically the aim of this law is allow him to lie and not get called out for it.

    Now that is an abuse of his powers!!!!

  9. This is an insightful analysis of why Boris Johnson, can’t and won’t’ sack Dominic Cummings:

    To the U.K. prime minister, his top aide — whose lockdown journey from London to Durham has dominated headlines for days — is more than just an effective political adviser. He is the lynchpin of the Downing Street operation; someone who — according to several people who have worked with the two men in and out of government — gives Johnson policy direction and operational grip, while commanding more loyalty among a number of key officials and ministers than the prime minister does himself.

    The two men’s working relationship was forged in the victorious Vote Leave campaign of 2016, which Cummings orchestrated, with Johnson as his frontman. Many of the top team in Johnson’s government — both officials and ministers — are ex-Vote Leave, veterans of endless media firestorms whose modus operandi has always been to “tough it out.”

    …Besides the operational impact of losing Cummings himself — he is the chief architect of the government’s policy agenda and the person who ensures, via relentless polling and focus groups, that No. 10 remains focused on what Johnson calls “the people’s priorities” — there is the risk of who might go with him.

    Vote Leave veterans occupy several top jobs in No. 10 and the Cabinet: from communications director Lee Cain and Brexit adviser Oliver Lewis to Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab, Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove and Home Secretary Priti Patel. Johnson may have been the frontman, but until very recently, some of the key figures who now answer to him aspired to the crown in their own right. Some of them owe more loyalty to Cummings than Johnson.

  10. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #12 Friday, May 29th, 2020 – 6:52 am

    C@tmomma @ #10 Friday, May 29th, 2020 – 4:41 am

    Trump’s answer to everything he doesn’t like, oppression by lawsuit.

    Not in this case.

    Here he is actually making a law for his own personal reasons.

    Basically the aim of this law is allow him to lie and not get called out for it.

    Now that is abuse of power!!!!

    But by making the law he is enabling others to bring lawsuits. So, what will be the upshot? An explosion of disinformation spreading like poison across social media, with a ready recourse to a lawsuit if anyone challenges you. It’s bad enough as it is now!

  11. Yay the Real Time panel is back!

    Real Time with Bill Maher@RealTimers
    We’re bringing back the #RealTime panel! Join @BillMaher @tomcolicchio @soledadobrien @ianbremmer + @jayleno FRIDAY at 10PM on @HBO – and streaming soon after on @hbomax!

  12. I think this a reasonable position for Labor to be in at this point in the electoral cycle. I further think that Morrison’s troubles will start in earnest in the post-C-19 period when he imposes austerity measures.

  13. These polling stats will mean very little to the coalition supporters , they will wait and see what happens on the actual election day

  14. Right on, Sista!

    Jessica Rosenworcel, a Democratic FCC commissioner, blasted the draft order Thursday as unworkable. “Social media can be frustrating,” she said in a statement. “But an executive order that would turn the Federal Communications Commission into the president’s speech police is not the answer.”

    And, as usual, Charles Koch is thinking laterally and into the likely Democratic future:

    Others fretted the proposal Trump signed threatens to circumvent Congress. “The idea you could have an executive order that reinterprets a clear statute that Congress passed, that has been interpreted by the courts for over 20-plus years, as recently as yesterday … is just nonsense,” said Jesse Blumenthal, who leads tech policy work for Stand Together, an organization backed by industrialist Charles Koch.

    Anyway, suffice to say, Trump has just handed the Democrats a made-to-order organising rallying point for the upcoming election.

  15. “56-44 to the Coalition in Queensland (2.4% to Labor”…

    Queensland is the Federal thorn in the flank for Labor…. and it has been so for very many years (not so much at the state level, though). I appreciate that both the shadow Treasurer and the ALP President are Queenslanders, but that won’t be enough. Albo and his team must put together a “Queensland strategy” and if they haven’t started yet, they should start NOW!

    Murdoch’s end of his hardcopy newspapers will be a golden opportunity, as very few Queenslanders will pay a subscription to read the papers online…. No more free copies of The Courier as you sit and drink a coffee or have lunch, just about everywhere in Brisbane…. no more small, regional newspapers publishing photos of Anna Palaszczuk in crosshairs in the front page, that are visible to anyone (even if you don’t buy the paper)…. no more propaganda disguised as “information”….

    If Labor solves its “Queensland problem”, then it can relax about Western Australia…. and the Coalition will face very BIG challenges to win another Federal election….

  16. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Simon Benson summarises the latest NewsPoll saying that despite the overwhelming and uniform national support for the Mr Morrison and the federal government’s handling of the ­pandemic, the national contest ­remains deadlocked, with the two-party-preferred vote at 50-50. Federal Labor is languishing in WA and Queensland.
    Phil Coorey says that Albanese was already treading a delicate balance as opposition leader – but the coronavirus crisis has left him struggling in Scott Morrison’s wake.
    Shane Wright tells us that the Morrison government is considering revamping elements of its JobKeeper wage subsidy scheme to head off a $100 billion financial cliff beyond September as it works with banks to help hundreds of thousands of Australians once mortgage deferrals end. Philip Lowe certainly thinks there should be a continuation of sorts.
    Low also is concerned that excessive red tape might hamper the recovery.
    Jennifer Hewett writes that spending not lending is the key to economic recovery.
    David Crowe says Morrison promises a path out of this decline but is yet to prove he has the map – and the money – to achieve real change. He talks about the now parlous state of vocational and tertiary education.
    Michelle Grattan on “When Christian met Sally – the match made by a pandemic”.
    Morrison’s industrial relations peace gambit is worth a shot. Even if it fails, it’s shrewd politics says Richard Holden. He does wonder just how representative will be the representatives at the table.
    Some think we heading for a post-COVID-19 utopia, but based on current projections, a pessimistic Martin Hirst doesn’t think so.,13936
    Under extreme grilling by Kristina Keneally Australia’s financial regulator has revealed it was given less than 24 hours to provide advice on the first draft of the Morrison government’s early super access scheme.
    Strategic planners Sean Macken and Tim Williams opine that in order to fix our housing industry, governments need skin in the game. The say big first home owner grants are a waste of money and that governments could pre-purchase property on the proviso that the developer immediately starts construction, generating new jobs. Once built, these new homes would become public assets.
    Noel Towell reports that Dan Andrews wants the federal government to put down its weapons as he warns of the dangers of Victorians going back onto transport networks.
    Elizabeth Knight on Murdoch’s woes in Australia.
    And Stephen Mayne reckons it’s time for the Murdochs to sell out of News Corp.
    Older women may have more to fear from the health risks of COVID-19, but it’s younger women who are bearing the stressful brunt of the shutdowns writes Kate Aubusson.
    The ageing of Australia’s population is having negative impacts on our economic growth and productivity, writes Abul Rizvi.,13939
    Given what the bushfire royal commission has been hearing the SMH editorial says that we need informed and honest discussion, from all contributors, about the risks climate change poses to our environment and communities and what we can do to mitigate them.
    Katie Burgess reveals that private job agencies were paid six weeks of administration fees up front to prepare for a coronavirus-induced spike in unemployment, despite a moratorium on mutual obligations reporting because of the pandemic. What’s going on here? Oh that’s Stuart Robert’s outfit.
    Eryk Bagshaw and Anthony Galloway tell us that the board of an Australian and Victorian government funded Belt and Road foundation was stacked with advisers with high-profile links to the Chinese Communist Party.
    Jennifer Wilson goes to town on what PM&C’s Phil Gaetjens revealed to the senate committee looking at how prepared Australia was for the bushfire season.
    Mike Foley explains how Australia’s emissions reductions falling short of climate commitment. This should come as a surprise to nobody.
    Recent signs of a closer relationship between government, unions and employers are positive, but they need to step up and establish a new social contract at work writes Professor Russell Lansbury. He thinks the government will have its work cut out.
    Josh and Scotty from Marketing: Michelle Pini puts forward nine reasons why we’re not all in this together.,13938
    The national cabinet is set to become a permanent feature of the political landscape, but some state leaders have warned Scott Morrison that attacks on them by his ministers could threaten the new era of co-operation says Phil Coorey.
    Zona Black explains how consumers remain at the centre of the coronavirus economic battle, fending off shonky product promises with one hand while applauding good brand behaviour with the other. She says there are plenty of snake oil salesmen out there.
    Australia spent $7.1 billion to process asylum seekers in Nauru and Papua New Guinea in a program that was largely managed well but failed to achieve value for money in relation to PNG, the Auditor-General has found.
    The AFR also comments on the A-G’s report saying Paladin’s big contract was shown not to be value for money.
    Nick Toscano reports that Santos has likened a proposed trans-Australian pipeline to an admission of defeat, saying there are vast gas reserves yet to be extracted in the south-east.
    As Australia braces for a second wave of COVID-19, two new studies have highlighted the urgent need to determine how common and how infectious asymptomatic carriers really are writes the AFR’s Jill Margo.
    The world wasn’t ready for a Green New Deal in 2009. Today, it may be suggests Larry Elliott.
    Dana McCauley reports that Greg Hunt has warned manufacturers, importers and sellers of protective face masks that anyone found distributing counterfeit or faulty items in breach of national standards will face court action.
    The coronavirus pandemic may have sparked a global boom in leisure wear but there has been little upside for Indonesia’s sports shoe factories, where 400,000 workers have lost their jobs and as many as a million people could be out of work by July.
    Australian taxpayers will fork out close to $1 billion for the Woomera Range Complex upgrade, used by the ADF, the US and UK. With revelations that the US military denies Australia access to computer source code needed to operate key components in our war-fighting equipment, Michelle Fahy investigates the real beneficiaries of the secret test range.
    Things are not good in Minneapolis as another crack in US society is opened up. And in breaking news the National Guard has just been called out to quell this uprising.
    With his threats on Twitter Trump is claiming extraordinarily sweeping powers that experts say the President simply doesn’t have. We’ve heard this story before.

    Yes, there are arguments for treating the president differently but If he’s going to use Twitter, he doesn’t get an exemption because of the office he holds writes Stephen J Carter.
    Bloomberg’s Therese Raphael writes that Boris Johnson’s most senior adviser may ride out the immediate crisis, with help from his boss, but both men will pay a price.
    And Michael Bloomberg says Senate Republicans should join with House Democrats in holding hearings that probe why the President fired four inspectors-general over the past two months.
    According to the acerbic John Crace Boris Johnson has sacrificed top scientific advisers on the altar of Classic Dom Cummings.
    The coronavirus infection rate is still too high. There will probably be a second wave warns David Hunter as the UK opens up the lockdown.
    A former Liberal staffer has well and truly earned nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”.

    Cartoon Corner

    Mark David

    Alan Moir

    David Rowe

    Cathy Wilcox

    Andrew Dyson

    David Pope

    Jim Pavlidis

    Matt Golding

    Johannes Leak

    From the US. Theses cartoonists are becoming increasingly vicious.

  17. In reply to:
    Confessions says:
    Friday, May 29, 2020 at 7:33 am

    Zuckerberg is betting on a losing horse…. He will regret it in November…
    But hey, as a good parasite that he is, he may quickly morph into a “responsible citizen”, if that’s what’s needed to keep his profits high….

  18. BK:
    “Simon Benson summarises the latest NewsPoll saying that despite the overwhelming and uniform national support for the Mr Morrison and the federal government’s handling of the ­pandemic, the national contest ­remains deadlocked, with the two-party-preferred vote at 50-50.”…

    …. and just wait for the “snap-back”….. If by splashing free money around ScuMo can only get a 50%, how much will he get as soon as he takes that money back?

  19. Alpo
    One thing about Murdoch’s online papers is they all tend to run the same stories so there is little in way of individual news as i discovered when i had a twitter account and had a list of local paper twitter accounts and found they all tweeted the same headlines.

  20. Thanks BK. Another brilliant Rowe today.


    Zuckerberg has tried to walk both sides of the fence and has failed.

  21. Trump is trying to solve a problem that doesn’t exist — with powers he doesn’t have: NYT reporter

    President Donald Trump’s new executive order on social media companies was ridiculed on MSNBC’s “Deadline: White House” on Thursday.

    “Donald Trump has moved at remarkable speed — imagine if he did that with the pandemic — in his attempt to exact revenge on Twitter for daring to fact-check a pair of his tweets,” Nicolle Wallace reported.

    What’s happening with the president’s order here, as far as we’ve seen details, he’s trying to use powers he doesn’t actually have to solve a problem that doesn’t exist,” he explained. “It’s ridiculous.”

    “That’s the most brilliant thing I’ve heard in a long time,” Wallace said.

  22. Yes, ‘fess, I can only imagine that as Trump flails around like a cornered rat and tries to put off the election that he knows he will likely lose, polls like this one will only become more stark for the Republicans:

    May 28
    BREAKING: Democrat John Hickenlooper is leading GOP Sen. Cory Gardner by 18 points in the Colorado senate race in new poll.

  23. ‘Resisting suffocation is not resisting arrest’: Ex-prosecutor explains why police defense in George Floyd killing won’t fly

    On CNN Thursday, former federal prosecutor Laura Coates explained why police cannot use the defense the George Floyd was “resisting arrest” to excuse his death.

    “Resisting suffocation is not resisting arrest. Let me be clear with that. The code and the policy of the police officers is that they have to use only the amount of force necessary to repel a force against them. This is a man on his stomach, handcuffed behind his back, gasping for air, calling out for help and saying he cannot breathe.”

  24. Confessions @ #32 Friday, May 29th, 2020 – 7:54 am

    Thanks BK. Another brilliant Rowe today.


    Zuckerberg has tried to walk both sides of the fence and has failed.

    Because Zuckerberg’s MD is a former top adviser to George W. Bush. So he’s actually walking more on one side of the street than the other.

  25. C@t:

    Mike Madrid@madrid_mike
    Which GOP Trump enablers are down double-digits?
    Cory Gardner – CO 18%
    Martha McSally – AZ 12%
    Susan Collins – ME 11%
    The anti-Trump Senate map is expanding.
    The @ProjectLincoln effect is taking hold.

  26. Oh look that radical socialist is channeling Sally McManus and the Australian Union Movement

    @AOC tweets

    I’m curious – how has wage theft shown up in your life? Have you ever had an employer steal your wages?

    (Wage theft isn’t just not receiving a check – it’s being forced to do work off the clock, not being paid for overtime, being denied breaks, etc.)

    Share your stories below ⬇️

  27. Moses Morrison flaunts his faith for an election, but is morally corrupt. An empty vessel. How did we ever get into a situation where this man “leads” the country?

    How did Morrison watch such devastation take hold from the safety and comfort of his luxury hotel on a tropical island, and do and say absolutely nothing? If he was kept abreast of developments and still did nothing, preferring instead to enjoy his holiday, this makes his choices even worse.

  28. ‘fess,
    Interesting Veep polling analysis by long time Dem pollster, Stan Greenberg (he who coined the term ‘Reagan Democrats’ and was Bill Clinton’s pollster):

    Earlier this month, he briefed top Biden campaign officials on two battleground surveys conducted by his firm. Accompanied by a slide presentation that was obtained by POLITICO, Greenberg addressed the question hanging over Biden and his inner circle: Which vice presidential candidate will help the most in November?

    The conclusion was blunt: “Sen. Warren is the obvious solution.”

    Biden’s biggest problem, Greenberg said, is that the Democratic Party has not unified behind him. In fact, Biden is now behind where Clinton was with Bernie Sanders voters in 2016, with more than 20 percent of the democratic socialist’s backers saying they would not vote for him, even as 87 percent of them pledge to vote for a Democrat for Congress. At a similar point in the 2016 cycle, roughly 15 percent of Sanders voters said they wouldn’t vote for Hillary Cllinton and Greenberg’s own polling through Democracy Corps around Election Day found the same.

    “They lean towards the Democrats, but Biden’s not getting their votes yet,” Greenberg told POLITICO.

  29. Labor’s problems in Queensland would be down to there being more older and retired voters living there there as a proportion of the voting population, the sluggish economy being reliant on Tourism and Mining and the distribution of the population means there are more people overall living in remote and regional areas compared to other States.

    Volatility in voting behaviour there is quite common. Morrison will be doing OK at the moment because the full impact of the recession/depression has not yet hit and people are striving to be positive and supportive of the Government in difficult times. But, this may change if Morrison and his Government cannot manage the post Covid recovery.

    At the moment Morrison is making plenty of money spending announcements. But, as some here have already found out, he is supported by a bureaucracy that wants to ensure the money is not distributed.

  30. Cat

    I kept getting attacked by you for saying Biden has to win over Sanders voters. Glad to see you using expert analysis to say the same things.

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