The Australian has published a set of geographic and demographic breakdowns compiled from multiple recent Newspoll results, once a regular quarterly feature of the pollster notable for its results at state level, but now greatly expanded as more elaborate methods are adopted in response to last year’s pollster failure. Where in the such breakdowns were limited to geography, gender and age, there are now also education (no tertiary, technical and university), household income, English or non-English speaker at home, religion (only Christian and no religion are provided, but they presumably have a small sample result for other religions).
Compared with a national result of 50-50, the state breakdowns show level pegging in New South Wales (1.8% swing to Labor), 55-45 to Labor in Victoria (1.9% to Labor), 56-44 to the Coalition in Queensland (2.4% to Labor), 55-45 ditto in Western Australia (0.6% swing to Labor, and 53-47 to Labor in South Australia (2.3%). These suggest statistically indistinguishable swings to Labor of 1.8% in New South Wales, 1.9% in Victoria, 2.4% in Queensland, 0.6% in Western Australia and 2.3% in South Australia. The primary votes are notably strong for the Greens in Queensland, up nearly three points from the election to 13%, and One Nation in Western Australia, who are on 9% after never having done better than 7% in the last term.
The age breakdowns are notable for the 62-38 lead to Labor among the 18-34 cohort, a differential quite a lot greater than that recorded by Newspoll in the previous term, which ranged from 4% to 8% compared with the present 12%. The gender gap — 52-48 to the Coalition among men and the reverse among women — is at levels not seen since the Tony Abbott prime ministership, whether due to genuine churn in voting intention or (more likely I think) a change in the pollster’s house effect.
Analysis of the education breakdowns is made easy by the fact that two-party is 50-50 for all three cohorts, with even the primary vote breakdowns recording little variation, other than university graduates being somewhat more disposed to the Greens and allergic to One Nation. As the table below illustrates, there are notable differences between these numbers and comparable findings for the Australian National University’s post-election Australian Election Study survey, which recorded a strong leftward lean among the university-educated compared with those without qualifications and, especially, those with non-tertiary qualifications.
For income, Newspoll reflects the Australian Election Study in finding the low-to-middle income cohort being Labor’s strongest, with a relative weakness among the low-income cohort presumably reflecting their lack of support in rural and regional areas. However, the distinctions are less marked in Newspoll, which credits the Coalition with 46% of the primary vote among the top household income cohort (in this case kicking in at $150,000) compared with 51% in the Australian Election Study, with Labor respectively at 34% and 32%. Differences were predictably pronounced according to language (51-49 to the Coalition among those speaking English only, 57-43 to Labor among those speaking a different language at home) and religion (58-42 to the Coalition among Christians, the reverse among the non-religious).
The results are combined from the last four Newspoll surveys, collectively conducted between March 11 and May 16, from a sample of 6032, with state sample sizes ranging from 472 (suggesting a 4.5% margin of error on the South Australian result) to 1905 (suggesting 2.2% in New South Wales.
guytaur @ #50 Friday, May 29th, 2020 – 8:26 am
guytaur,
I doubt I would have said exactly that. It’s a no-brainer that Joe Biden needs to win over Bernie Bros because Hillary Clinton lost them. What I DID say, repeatedly, was that Bernie Sanders was never the answer in the general election.
Cat
So you say. We don’t know what the General election outcomes are yet.
I say Sanders would have won. Its now a hypothetical we will never know. However you have acknowledged one of my main points.
I am hoping Sanders and AOC helps get Biden over the line. I am also hoping its Warren for future elections and progress.Biden is the past and has to transition to the future.
Warren is the only candidate in the public list apparently acceptable to Biden that ticks those boxes.
Its interesting the Lovett from the Obama guys had Warren on his show the other day.
@AmySiskind
White House officials have decided not to release updated economic projections this summer over concern it would show the pandemic has led to a severe economic downturn, breaking a precedent since at least the 1970s.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/28/white-house-coronavirus-economic-projections/
Cat
There you go saying Bernie Bros. You just can’t help your mindset.
Remember the Pod Save America people are referred to as recently as this week as the Obama Bros
Despite the GOP appellation you are using Obama won.
Gosh, I wonder why they won’t release any figures? Don’t want to upset the orange being?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/28/white-house-coronavirus-economic-projections/
Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.
For information – Bypass Paywalls is now V 1.7.2
https://github.com/iamadamdev/bypass-paywalls-chrome
The addons for both Chrome and Firefox are now on the same page.
“The Advertiser” now appears to be included in this version – nevertheless I will keep “Anti Paywall” active.
Newcastle today – currently 14℃ with a projected top of 19℃
Winds S at 15 to 25 KM/H – Chance of rain 40% ☔
C@t:
They talked about Warren on the podcast I linked earlier, but I’ve also heard and read other commentary about the VP pick. Basically Warren would likely repel mid-western voters who might want to vote Democrat but wouldn’t if they thought that Warren would be the successor if Biden keels over or retires. AB Stoddard made the point as have others over the years that progressive voters aren’t the majority of Democrat voters.
I think the VP choice is harder given Biden is the nominee. But I was heartened to read the other day that while Stacey Abrams might be getting vetted, it’s only to appease her followers and she isn’t being taken seriously.
Confessions
I see you are still relaying the GOP talking points.
The reality is that Democrats voters are progressive. What we know is happening is that voters are picking the White Guy they think enough GOP voters will vote for to win.
Thats a practical win an election measure not a pick based on progressive policies.
So you say.
No, guytaur. I KNOW. However, as that’s as much of an admission that you were wrong to say that about me as I’ll ever get out of you, going on past form, so I guess I’ll have to take it. Like most zealots, you don’t do backdowns or apologies for saying untrue things. You just use weasel words to skate around admitting you were wrong.
‘fess,
Yes, it’s almost a Hobson’s Choice for Biden. Though I have to say you can’t blame him if so-called ‘Progressive’ Sanders’ supporters don’t vote for him because he doesn’t eventually choose Warren. That would be cutting off their noses despite their face BIG TIME. Which they have done once before already. And look what that got them and their cherished causes.
Good morning KayJay
What do I need to do with the link?
Cat
You are the zealot.
You are denying the reality of polling that shows where the Democrat vote is headed. Unlike you I can see Black Voters are picking the candidate they think can win not the candidate for governing.
Why? They are picking lesser evil not a platform for radical change.
Thats not saying Sanders would have lost. If he was the nominee those same people would have voted for him over Trump. As I said its now a hypothetical and we will never know. I am sure I am right as Sanders would have got higher turnout. As we know not by much. However enough.
Since then of course the pandemic has changed everything. Now even the donkey’s ass looks like winning President. Trump burned the political capital of incumbency big time.
guytaur
The thing I find astounding is the USA has an election process to pick the precedential candidate, Biden won and still you can hold onto the delusion that Sanders was the man they wanted.
There is no hope.
Morning all. Thanks BK. As bad as the UK situation is with covid19 deaths and PM (Puppet Master) Dominic Cummings being above the law, I was shocked to read they have only now started tracing and testing!! What have they been doing for five months? Their response has been possibly worse than Trumps.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/28/contact-tracing-in-england-not-fully-operational-until-end-of-june
One should not assume all supporters of a political party are automatically progressive or conservative because there has long been demographic difference that influence the dynamics of local political parties. When it comes to November its nearly impossible for the president to be reelected and that has nothing to do with labels but Biden is a poor candidate made look good by Trump.
frednk
Still you don’t understand General Elections are different from Primary elections.
All the experts say Trump needs to suppress votes and Biden needs turnout.
And this quote in the ABC does not speak well of Gladys Berejiklian’s grip on power. No wonder the RWNJs resent Andrews so much. He has a spine.
“ NSW clubs could welcome crowds of more than 500 people in certain venues from Monday, with the industry boasting it “heavily influenced” state government decision‑making.”
Have a good day all.
guytaur
As I said, there is no hope. In Australia it is people like you that drive the Green.
Democrats has their chance to choose Sanders and choose not too.
guytaur,
You are a Know Nothing. Who thinks they know everything.
One day it’s taken for me to begin to take you seriously again but for you to prove you are still a delusional zealot. And you can call me a zealot if that makes you feel better. I don’t care.
Anyway, have fun listening to the sound of one hand clapping yourself, I’m out again. I have no time to waste on nitwits.
frednk
For you there is no hope.
Even as I point out the unification of the Democrats and Cat quotes expert advice on needing that unification here you are pontificating on the evils of the big base of voters needed for Biden to win.
Socrates says:
Friday, May 29, 2020 at 8:45 am
And this quote in the ABC does not speak well of Gladys Berejiklian’s grip on power. No wonder the RWNJs resent Andrews so much. He has a spine.
“ NSW clubs could welcome crowds of more than 500 people in certain venues from Monday, with the industry boasting it “heavily influenced” state government decision‑making.”
Don’t forget the Greens, posts over the last couple of days would indicate they seriously resent Andrews. Just a sad useless lot joining in on the Liberals yap, yap, yapping.
The same applies to the Republicans as it does for the Democrats so there is nothing special about Biden needing to win Sanders supporters.
Cat
Yes you are a zealot. Your personal attacks on people when they say things you don’t like is a perfect example.
I did not use zealot to describe you until you did to me as a personal attack.
All because you don’t like hearing an alternative to your delusion.
Yes you did attack me for saying Sanders could win and that his policies were not radical. They are very Labor party.
Medicare for All is Universal Medicare. Its only a policy contention in the United States in not existing.
Everywhere else its the right’s thing to restrict that human right of healthcare for all.
Yet this Labor policy that is a core reason people vote Labor who are not rusted ons you disdain when its in another country.
All to deny that politics in the US has changed and the left is back as movement.
Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton has indicated the government is “flexible” on the issue of extending Jobseeker at the same time treasurer Josh Frydenberg said industry-specific stimulus packages could help struggling parts of the economy through the post-COVID slump.
The comments come after RBA Governor Phillip Lowe told the Senate’s COVID-19 Response Committee that the government may need to expand Jobkeeper beyond its expiry in September if the economy does not improve.
“I think clearly the government has shown we have been able to implement the JobKeeper, double the payment that was otherwise paid to people who are unemployed through the JobSeeker payment and we want businesses to recover,” Mr Dutton told Today on Friday. “We want jobs to be at the centre of every decision we make.
“So I think we are flexible and we will look at the way in which we could help businesses and people get back to a normal way of life. But there is a way to go yet as we know.”
Mr Dutton said the ultimate decision on whether Jobkeeper is extended remains with the Treasurer and Scott Morrison.
Mexican
Yes. Its why they are called swinging voters.
We know they are what is referred to as white working class.
This is a class that is not afraid of the word socialist. No matter what else you think about them.
Mexican
Yes. Its why they are called swinging voters.
We know they are what is referred to as white working class.
This is a class that is not afraid of the word socialist. No matter what else you think about them.
Politics in the US hasn’t changed because had the pandemic not happened there was a strong chance Trump was going to be reelected and its only his mishandling of the crisis and the economic recession that gives the Democrats a chance but its false to say America is embracing socialism because that is not America no matter who holds the white house or the congress.
Americans are not socialist and will never be because the label isn’t one uses in the American political context.
Morning all
Much thanks BK!
BK @ #61 Friday, May 29th, 2020 – 8:41 am
Please forgive me if I seem to be “mansplaining”
https://github.com/iamadamdev/bypass-paywalls-chrome
opens to show
From whence you can download the zip file and then extract all – this folder (or the one inside it) can then be slid onto the Chrome extensions page. You would also enable “allow in incognito”.
It sound a little messy but you have done this previously. My computers are currently updating to new “Insiders” versions but I will be happy to add any detail you request.
Blue sky at the moment – exercise time and mowing. 🥀
Just because the government does something doesn’t make that a socialist act. Only the reactionaries see every government action as socialism.
Mexican
Saying the left is back as a movement is not to claim the US is socialist.
This is an extreme talking point by many to try and paint reasonable people pointing out a change at one flank of the political spectrum as talking about the whole.
The success of the Squad and the failures of Trump to hurt their success by calling them socialists is proof of this point. Its a very different thing from saying The USA has become a socialist nirvana.
Good news!
It’s a small step in the grand scheme of things, but something close to normality has returned to Blacktown with the re-opening of the last surviving drive-in theatre in NSW.
Blacktown’s Skyline cinema in greater western Sydney was bustling once again on Thursday night, playing cult classics and family favourites.
“It was nice to see some very happy customers again and to smell the fresh popcorn,” Event Cinemas entertainment director Luke Mackey Mackey told AAP.
🙂
Another article today by Phil Corey talking down Albo in his match up with Morrison.
I think 50/50 is good for Labor coming off the rally around the flag period.
QLD remains a big problem, but i think Albo has put down some good markers.
It was clear he was the prime minister we did not have during the fires, and there remains good fodder against Morrison when Covid stops dominating the news.
He has also positioned well to criticise the Covid response when appropriate and has an opportunity to link up with state premiers and ALP leaders to create an Opposition National Cabinet.
Morrison will remain scotty from marketting.
I think Albo could come to be seen as the potential actual Prime Minister in the way this Biden ad claims he is the actual President;
https://twitter.com/jonfavs/status/1265759828321767424
The problem for Labor in an election is that they have to balance what they might want to do and what is acceptable to the majority of the voters.
While Labor may see the reasoning behind a Greens position and in principle be supportive, they know that the majority of voters are not supportive.
The same situation would likely exist if Labor was to form Government.
The Senate would present a barrier to legislation.
Now Labor could negotiate with the Greens, but it is highly likely that they would come to a position that is unacceptable to the Libs, Nats and conservative Crossbenches, so the legislation would fail.
You can push the boundaries left as much as you want, but we live in a democracy and without majority support you go nowhere.
These are some of the realities that the Greens need to consider in the future.
Interesting
Dr. Dena Grayson
@DrDenaGrayson
·
2h
Multiple “superspreading events” have occurred in the #CoronavirusPandemic:
Right-pointing triangle61 cases in a #WA choir
Right-pointing triangle800 cases in a Singapore dorm
Right-pointing triangle80 cases at a music venue in #Japan
Right-pointing triangleShips, nursing homes, meatpacking plants, ski resorts, churches, restaurants, hospitals, and prisons
3
55
104
Show this thread
Dr. Dena Grayson
@DrDenaGrayson
·
2h
Warning signScientists estimate that “superspreaders” may account for most #coronavirus cases: “Probably ~10% of cases lead to 80% of the spread,” and the virus may need to be introduced into a country 4 times to have an even chance of establishing itself.
Why do some COVID-19 patients infect many others, whereas most don’t spread the virus at all?
Preventing big clusters of cases would help curb the pandemic, scientists say
sciencemag.org
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all
Barney
The Greens have policy positions that One Nation has too.
IF you characterise the Greens as being purely left you have missed the boat.
I am no Greens party member I remind you. The Greens and One Nation support a People’s Bank.
Get back to me when you call One Nation socialist.
guytaur @ #88 Friday, May 29th, 2020 – 7:17 am
If the legislation was around such an issue then there would be little need to negotiate as it would seem to have wide support.
Yep. Cos he is a frickin psychopath
Tea Pain
@TeaPainUSA
Trump won’t lift a finger to stop a deadly pandemic, but will move heaven and earth to protect his right to lie with impunity.
Trump executive order against social media giants denounced as unlawful ploy to ‘eviscerate public…
“Undoubtedly the first step down an increasingly dark path of Trump using the power of his office to intimidate media companies, journalists, activists, and anyone else who criticizes him into…
rawstory.com
Why would they? They’ve shown themselves to be impervious to those realities for years now, preferring to whiteant the party with the best and most realistic chance of getting the Greens policy agenda into legislation.
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/05/trump-executive-order-against-social-media-giants-denounced-as-unlawful-ploy-to-eviscerate-public-oversight-of-his-lies/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Alpo says:
Friday, May 29, 2020 at 7:39 am
“56-44 to the Coalition in Queensland (2.4% to Labor”…
Queensland is the Federal thorn in the flank for Labor…. and it has been so for very many years (not so much at the state level, though). I appreciate that both the shadow Treasurer and the ALP President are Queenslanders, but that won’t be enough. Albo and his team must put together a “Queensland strategy” and if they haven’t started yet, they should start NOW!
Murdoch’s end of his hardcopy newspapers will be a golden opportunity, as very few Queenslanders will pay a subscription to read the papers online…. No more free copies of The Courier as you sit and drink a coffee or have lunch, just about everywhere in Brisbane…. no more small, regional newspapers publishing photos of Anna Palaszczuk in crosshairs in the front page, that are visible to anyone (even if you don’t buy the paper)…. no more propaganda disguised as “information”….
If Labor solves its “Queensland problem”, then it can relax about Western Australia…. and the Coalition will face very BIG challenges to win another Federal election….
Bob Brown and The LibKin will be running more gigs in QLD with the intention of making sure Labor lose. No doubt about that at all.
Barney
Exactly. When Labor forms government again it will be Labor’s agenda on the table. Not the LNP agenda.
My only argument is Labor should push hard as the LNP has in government. You get further with your agenda. The right will whine and whine as always but it does happen.
Don’t fall for the be bipartisan line bs from them. They never do.
guytaur @ #94 Friday, May 29th, 2020 – 7:24 am
Did you even read what I originally wrote?
Confessions
Yes the Greens are so out of touch they are not in government in the ACT.
We have had peak right wing deny science campaigns. On the day Alan Joyce resigns and its clear the pandemic has brought the press gallery back to listening to experts and not denying that reality the Greens have more not less relevance.
This of course could be why the increased talk from Labor people about the Greens.
Fear the political landscape back to accepting reality makes things like the Green New Deal acceptable.
See BK”s roundup to see the contradiction to Briefly’s claims.
Confessions @ #91 Friday, May 29th, 2020 – 7:23 am
You should never be too old to learn.
Vic,
100,000 dead on his watch and all Trump can say or do is whine that he is the victim.
Hopefully, his time is drawing to an end and the American Public will dispose of him.
Do you think there is a prospect that Trump may withdraw from the Election if the the polling shows he will go out a loser? A health issue could be the route to the Republicans changing the paradigm of this Election.
Barney
The Senate numbers change at elections.
One Nation and Jackie Lambie won’t have the power they have now.
They also will have to say yes or no to Labor’s agenda.
Use the union tactic. Be strong. Then you compromise and get to the middle ground. Don’t surrender your negotiating position before you enter the negotiating room.
There is nothing delusional or airy fairy about that concept.
frednk
There is no hope. In Australia it is people like you that drive Labor. There, fixed it.