Newspoll breakdowns broken down

Newspoll offers a deep dive into its recent polling data, offering unprecedented detail on voting intention by income, education, language and religion, along with more familiar breakdowns by state.

The Australian has published a set of geographic and demographic breakdowns compiled from multiple recent Newspoll results, once a regular quarterly feature of the pollster notable for its results at state level, but now greatly expanded as more elaborate methods are adopted in response to last year’s pollster failure. Where in the such breakdowns were limited to geography, gender and age, there are now also education (no tertiary, technical and university), household income, English or non-English speaker at home, religion (only Christian and no religion are provided, but they presumably have a small sample result for other religions).

Compared with a national result of 50-50, the state breakdowns show level pegging in New South Wales (1.8% swing to Labor), 55-45 to Labor in Victoria (1.9% to Labor), 56-44 to the Coalition in Queensland (2.4% to Labor), 55-45 ditto in Western Australia (0.6% swing to Labor, and 53-47 to Labor in South Australia (2.3%). These suggest statistically indistinguishable swings to Labor of 1.8% in New South Wales, 1.9% in Victoria, 2.4% in Queensland, 0.6% in Western Australia and 2.3% in South Australia. The primary votes are notably strong for the Greens in Queensland, up nearly three points from the election to 13%, and One Nation in Western Australia, who are on 9% after never having done better than 7% in the last term.

The age breakdowns are notable for the 62-38 lead to Labor among the 18-34 cohort, a differential quite a lot greater than that recorded by Newspoll in the previous term, which ranged from 4% to 8% compared with the present 12%. The gender gap — 52-48 to the Coalition among men and the reverse among women — is at levels not seen since the Tony Abbott prime ministership, whether due to genuine churn in voting intention or (more likely I think) a change in the pollster’s house effect.

Analysis of the education breakdowns is made easy by the fact that two-party is 50-50 for all three cohorts, with even the primary vote breakdowns recording little variation, other than university graduates being somewhat more disposed to the Greens and allergic to One Nation. As the table below illustrates, there are notable differences between these numbers and comparable findings for the Australian National University’s post-election Australian Election Study survey, which recorded a strong leftward lean among the university-educated compared with those without qualifications and, especially, those with non-tertiary qualifications.

For income, Newspoll reflects the Australian Election Study in finding the low-to-middle income cohort being Labor’s strongest, with a relative weakness among the low-income cohort presumably reflecting their lack of support in rural and regional areas. However, the distinctions are less marked in Newspoll, which credits the Coalition with 46% of the primary vote among the top household income cohort (in this case kicking in at $150,000) compared with 51% in the Australian Election Study, with Labor respectively at 34% and 32%. Differences were predictably pronounced according to language (51-49 to the Coalition among those speaking English only, 57-43 to Labor among those speaking a different language at home) and religion (58-42 to the Coalition among Christians, the reverse among the non-religious).

The results are combined from the last four Newspoll surveys, collectively conducted between March 11 and May 16, from a sample of 6032, with state sample sizes ranging from 472 (suggesting a 4.5% margin of error on the South Australian result) to 1905 (suggesting 2.2% in New South Wales.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,634 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns broken down”

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  1. guytaur @ #99 Friday, May 29th, 2020 – 7:30 am

    Barney

    The Senate numbers change at elections.
    One Nation and Jackie Lambie won’t have the power they have now.
    They also will have to say yes or no to Labor’s agenda.

    Use the union tactic. Be strong. Then you compromise and get to the middle ground. Don’t surrender your negotiating position before you enter the negotiating room.

    There is nothing delusional or airy fairy about that concept.

    Are you suggesting that Labor/Greens will represent the balance of power in the Senate after the next election?

    If so, that would seem to be the height of delusional.

  2. Government operating a bank is not a socialist idea because the government already does operate one in the form of the RBA and it also runs a number of smaller financial organisations. A government commercial bank will still be operating like a bank so it will soon be subject to the same complaints.

  3. Rapid shift to renewable energy could lead Australia to cheap power and 100,000 jobs

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/29/rapid-shift-to-renewable-energy-could-lead-australia-to-cheap-power-and-100000-jobs

    A rapid expansion of renewable energy over the next five years could establish Australia as a home for new zero-emissions industries, cut electricity costs and create more than 100,000 jobs in the electricity industry alone, a new analysis suggests.

    The briefing paper by Beyond Zero Emissions, a climate change thinktank, presents an alternative vision to the Morrison government’s gas-fired recovery plan, arguing the shift to a clean electricity grid is inevitable and there are opportunities in accelerating it, rather than slowing it down. Renewable energy investment in Australia fell 50% last year.
    :::
    The report is part of a growing global call for governments to respond to the economic shock of the coronavirus crisis with policies that also help tackle the climate crisis.
    :::
    Beyond Zero Emissions released a report calling for 100% renewable energy a decade ago. It now says this goal is uninspiring, and that Australia could reach it simply by maintaining the installation rate of the past two years.

  4. Coronavirus to ‘dwarf’ Australia’s aid resources, forcing redirect of funding to health security, stability and economic recovery

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-28/pacific-aid-and-development-program-australia/12297252

    The spread of COVID-19 will “dwarf” Australia’s aid resources and force a rethink of how to help and maintain a strategic presence in the region, according to a new government strategy.

    The Partnerships for Recovery plan by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade is being released Friday and sets out a new approach for Australia’s development assistance over the next two years.

    The changing approach sees the Pacific, Timor-Leste and Indonesia nominated as “first-tier priorities”, narrowing the focus of Australia’s aid.

  5. The G

    Letters between the Queen and the governor-general who dismissed Gough Whitlam should be released, the High Court has ruled.

    The judgment handed down on Friday comes after a legal battle by historian Jenny Hocking, who says keeping them secret only fuels public distrust.

    The so-called palace letters between Buckingham Palace and Sir John Kerr about the time of the 1975 dismissal had been deemed personal communications by the National Archives of Australia and the Federal Court.

  6. Barney

    No I am suggesting the power dynamic will be different.

    The big one is that it will be Labor’s agenda.

    Labor needs to be strong to push for that agenda. Yes the Senate will push back and Labor will lose sometimes. However do not be afraid of failure. It does not doom an agenda forever.

    Just look at the GST. It took a while but they got it in.

    That was a contested political fight.
    Then you have the LNP doing work choices. Again.
    Learn the lesson keep pushing the agenda. Don’t stop just because there is some push back. Its not called the contest of ideas for nothing.

    The biggest failing for Labor is when it is seen as weak. That might be the right exploiting divisions or it might be Labor not having a spine.

    I say this as Labor is showing some very good signs of having a spine lately. I am hoping its not all talk.

    Being strong on issues going into an election is a way to win elections.
    The only debate and what you are rightly raising is what voters will accept.
    Thats why I keep saying look at Kevin 07 strong on the environment was a winning election winning strategy. Shorten being seen as talking out of both sides of his mouth on that issue saw Labor lose.

    It was not the only issue. Thats the point.

    One of the things Labor needs to do to be strong is have confidence in itself. That means the Greens won’t be a threat.

    Zoomster made this point continuously talking about the Andrews election. Labor gained and did not lose by appealing to Green voters. Then in power it moved its agenda and the Greens vote fell.

    Stop being scared of being seen as left. Like it or not Labor is a party of the left in voters minds.
    It comes with being a Workers party.

  7. Workers are not necessarily left and its a pointless label that probably wouldn’t exist if it wasn’t for the Estate General.

  8. And just like the Spider letters they will probably tell us what we already know or thought we knew about what happened. Kerr was desperate for royal favor so hounded Lizzie until she went okay then.

  9. guytaur says:
    Friday, May 29, 2020 at 9:24 am
    Barney

    Exactly. When Labor forms government again it will be Labor’s agenda on the table. Not the LNP agenda.

    Labor’s enemies will do their utmost to ensure this never happens. The Libling, the LibKin, the LibLite, the LibNats, LibNation….they will play off each other as they always do.

    Labor have won just one election in the last quarter century. We might wait another 30 years before Labor win again from opposition, such is the dysfunction in reformist politics.

  10. Mexican

    Voters are complex. They even vote against their best interests.

    Thats what makes predicting elections so difficult.

    As to what is popular with voters. Look at New Zealand. Its not a radical government by any means. It can’t be precisely because its a coalition across the political spectrum.

    Look at how popular Adern is.
    Thats how you govern. From a position of strength. Adern was like Gillard forced into it initially but her government is doing very well. As Gillard did.

    The difference is the media and opposition parties. No Alan Jones Convoy or Gina Rinehardt and Twiggy Forrest on the back of a ute whining about a mining tax. No newscorp whinging about sensible media regulation.

    New Zealand is more free and democratic than Australia.

    There are lessons to be learnt about how to govern from such governments. They move to the centre because those coalitions leave them with no choice.

    It shows the centre is not where many imagine it is.

  11. guytaur @ #108 Friday, May 29th, 2020 – 7:46 am

    Barney

    No I am suggesting the power dynamic will be different.

    The big one is that it will be Labor’s agenda.

    No one has any idea what the dynamics of the Senate will be.

    But your right it would be Labor’s agenda and that agenda would be what they took to the electorate.

    You seem to be suggesting that they should change on certain issues to the Green’s agenda.

  12. continuo

    Using your strategy yes. you are correct.

    So try and learn from Kevin 07 Daniel Andrews Bob Hawke and Whitlam. All very different policy positions in different times.

    What did they have in common?

    Strong reform agenda’s

    The press every day wails about parties being scared of doing reform.
    Maybe this is a clue to winning from opposition.

  13. Net-zero emission buildings: council releases bold post-COVID development plan

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/net-zero-buildings-yarra-council-releases-bold-post-covid-development-plan-20200528-p54xbf.html

    Every new commercial and residential development in a swath of inner-Melbourne suburbs would need to have zero net carbon emissions to win planning approval under an ambitious Yarra Council plan.

    If the move is signed off by the Andrews government, it would radically cut emissions generated within the council area, with more than 80 per cent of Yarra’s emissions coming from gas and electricity use in commercial, industrial and residential buildings.

    It’s part of a bold vision outlined in the council’s Climate Emergency Plan, which it has worked on for months and is expected to formally adopt next week.
    :::
    That will require Richmond MP and Planning Minister Richard Wynne – who has come under pressure from the Greens in recent state elections – to sign off on the plan.

  14. Barney

    No I am saying Labor should set its agenda and not be scared of the LNP calling it the party wagged by the Green tail.

    The LNP do that continually. When Labor has been strong on its environmental policies it has won.
    No matter how much the LNP squeal about the Green Labor party.

  15. guytaur @ #122 Friday, May 29th, 2020 – 8:02 am

    Barney

    No I am saying Labor should set its agenda and not be scared of the LNP calling it the party wagged by the Green tail.

    The LNP do that continually. When Labor has been strong on its environmental policies it has won.
    No matter how much the LNP squeal about the Green Labor party.

    Well that raises the question, will the Greens come to the party?

  16. Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:

    Mavis @ #115 Friday, May 29th, 2020 – 7:58 am

    [‘This could be fascinating reading.’]

    It certainly will be and it’s the right decision release the correspondence.

  17. Businesses face fines for breaching ‘work-from-home’ orders
    By Anthony Colangelo

    From Monday, the Victorian government will have the power to enforce people and businesses to work from home.

    Breaching this could lead to fines.

    “If an office that had currently, say, 80 per cent of their staff working from home then say ‘oh well, we’ll just ignore the Chief Health Officer and we will have everybody come back Monday,’ then they would be in breach of the public health orders,” Mr Andrews said.
    :::
    “If you’ve been working from home –you must keep working from home.”

  18. Guytaur
    Jacinta Arhern wasn’t forced into coalition because she was the opposition leader and polled less then the then National Party government did. She was invited by Peters to form government.

  19. GG

    Anything is possible with regards to Trump.

    I have always envisaged him being escorted out of Whitehouse in straight jacket.

  20. Mavis @ #125 Friday, May 29th, 2020 – 8:05 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:

    Mavis @ #115 Friday, May 29th, 2020 – 7:58 am

    [‘This could be fascinating reading.’]

    It certainly will be and it’s the right decision release the correspondence.

    It seemed hard to accept that correspondence between the GG and the Monarch could be considered personal.

  21. Mexican

    Arden was already in a formal alliance with the Greens before she negotiated with Peters.

    As I said it was broad political spectrum.

    Make no mistake Arden is a Centrist government.

    That tells you a lot about politics in Australia.

  22. Barney
    The fact the palace uses that suggests to me that Kerr was being personal but since he is long dead i’m not sure why the Queen would need to care but we saw this with the spider letters when the palace fought not to release Charles letters to ministers yet they basically told us what we knew about Charles so yep these will be interesting.

  23. “Murdoch’s end of his hardcopy newspapers will be a golden opportunity, as very few Queenslanders will pay a subscription to read the papers online….”

    ***

    Alan Jones won’t be on the radio dispensing his propaganda anymore either…

  24. guytaur says:
    Friday, May 29, 2020 at 10:01 am
    continuo

    Using your strategy yes. you are correct.

    So try and learn from Kevin 07 Daniel Andrews Bob Hawke and Whitlam. All very different policy positions in different times.

    What did they have in common?

    Strong reform agenda’s

    The press every day wails about parties being scared of doing reform.
    Maybe this is a clue to winning from opposition.

    Labor always run reformist platforms. But they very seldom win. Labor has won from opposition just 4 times since WW1.

    Labor will only very infrequently defeat the LibNats as long as the reformist voices remain divided. This is the very clear history of Australian politics. The Libkin campaign day in/day out against Labor. This is a deliberate strategy. Its purpose is to make sure Labor never come to power. The Libkin are not going to deviate from it. They profit from it. That is, the Greens profit by keeping Labor out of office. This is the plain as day lesson to be drawn from the last 25 years of Australian electoral politics.

    The Libkin will not change. They are a bulwark for the status quo. They are happy with that. They will never get more than around 10-11-12% of the vote, but that is all they need. They campaign to defend that terrain even though the Reformist plurality has been busted as a result.

  25. Mexican

    Peters was the last to come to the negotiating table. The final say remained with Adern. Thats why the Greens are happy.

    Like it or not the Greens are part and parcel of a Centrist government. Not radical at all.

  26. Barney in Tanjung Bunga:

    [‘It seemed hard to accept that correspondence between the GG and the Monarch could be considered personal.’]

    Precisely yet the Federal Court at first instance and on appeal found against Hocking. Hopefully we will soon get to know of Kerr’s duplicity. It’s a shame that Gough isn’t alive.

  27. The Greens are nothing more than opportunists. Stunts, random policy positions and desire to reduce Labors vote as strong as that of the Liberals.

    The Liberal because they want to win government; the Greens just because, they stand for nothing and will never form a government.

  28. The Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand (Māori: Rōpū Kākāriki o Aotearoa, Niu Tireni) is a left-wing political party in New Zealand.[2][3] Like many Green parties around the world it has four organisational pillars: ecology, social responsibility, grassroots democracy, and nonviolence.[7] It also accepts the Treaty of Waitangi as the founding document of New Zealand and recognises Māori as tangata whenua.[8]

    The party’s ideology combines environmentalism with left-wing, social democratic economic policies,[2] including well-funded, locally controlled public services within the confines of a steady-state economy.[9] Internationally, it is affiliated to the Global Greens.[5]

    The Green Party has co-leaders: one male and one female. James Shaw has been the male co-leader since 2015, and Marama Davidson has been the party’s female co-leader since 2018.

    It is the fourth largest political party in the House of Representatives,[10] and has agreed to support the Sixth Labour Government. In the 2017 general election, the Green Party secured 6.3% of the party vote and returned eight MPs.[10] This was down from 10.7% and 14 seats in the 2014 general election.[11]

    The NZ Greens are a splinter in the arse of NZ politics. They play no part in the NZ Government.

  29. Barney

    Will Labor? Thats the question. Or will Labor continue to rely on the LNP climate deniers.

    In government Labor can use that spit in the LNP to its advantage. It may not pass legislation the first time or two. The pressure on the LNP will increase and may even permanently split it between the climate deniers and the Turnbull moderates.

    This is what happens when you govern according to expert advice and hold your ground. See how successful Gillard was. Ignore the election loss. One of the things about that was she was not the Prime Minister when that loss happened.

    The lets appease the climate denier mob that reinstalled Rudd did not campaign effectively on the Carbon Price. They let the narrative of the tax take hold and did not fight back talking about the market to come.

    We know Gillard would have done things differently. We just don’t know how.
    So look at the success and don’t dwell on the failure.

    Today we have a different election coming up. Its going to be a recession and environment election where like in 02 being against the environmental scientists and economists like the LNP are will be fatal.

    Labor does know this which is why the push to talk about renewables. Just don’t mention the pro coal policies.

  30. briefly

    You just said.

    It is the fourth largest political party in the House of Representatives,[10] and has agreed to support the Sixth Labour Government

    See the Greens are part and parcel of a Centrist government.

    No matter how much you dislike the fact.

  31. “So you say. We don’t know what the General election outcomes are yet.”

    ***

    Don’t we? Unfortunately, Trump is the president, Clinton is not. But yet the right wing establishment types want to blame “Bernie Bros” for their own failure.

    Clinton didn’t lose the Bernie Bros; she never had them. If you don’t understand why that is then you don’t understand the left.

    Oh and the main reason Clinton lost on the night was because she took certain states for granted during the campaign and severely underestimated the level of support that existed for Trump.

  32. Hocking is now calling on the National Archive of Australia (NAA) to immediately release the 211 letters, saying the public deserves to know the full history of the greatest political and constitutional crisis in Australia’s history.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/29/palace-letters-high-court-rules-queen-secret-correspondence-whitlam-dismissal-are-commonwealth-records

    Morning all.

    To me this is the big local news today, so far anyway. Does anyone know how long the NAA have to comply? What they might still be able to do to slow down the release of the letters?

  33. Mexican

    I am not discounting Winston’s influence. I am just saying like it or not the Greens are part of that government.

    No more no less.

  34. “The NZ Greens are a splinter in the arse of NZ politics. They play no part in the NZ Government.”

    ***

    In October 2017, the Greens entered a confidence and supply arrangement with the Labour Party which gave them three ministers outside cabinet and one under secretary role.[74] This marked the first time the Greens have been in government.[75] Party leader James Shaw was appointed Minister for Climate Change and Statistics and Associate Minister of Finance. Julie Anne Genter was made Minister for Women and Associate Minister of Health and Transport. Eugenie Sage was made Minister of Conservation and Land Information and Associate Minister for the Environment. Jan Logie was appointed Parliamentary Undersecretary to the Minister of Justice with a focus on domestic and sexual violence issues.[76]

    As a support partner of the Labour-New Zealand First coalition government, the Greens secured several policies and concessions including a proposed Zero Carbon Act, a referendum on legalizing personal cannabis use by 2020, establishing a proposed Climate Commission, a proposed Green Transport Card to reduce public transportation costs, investing in rail and cycle infrastructure, light rail construction to Auckland Airport, increasing the Department of Conservation’s funding, eliminating “excessive” benefit sanctions and the gender pay gap, a rent-to-own-scheme as part of KiwiBuild, and re-establishing the Mental Health Commission.[77]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Party_of_Aotearoa_New_Zealand#The_Green_Party_in_Government

  35. Thanks for the link Michael. I remember the “outrage” directed at Palaszczuk for allowing the council elections to proceed at the beginning of the lock down. I am still reading your paper, but is it likely any of the recommendations will be in place by the Queensland State election? Is it getting attention?

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