Newspoll breakdowns broken down

Newspoll offers a deep dive into its recent polling data, offering unprecedented detail on voting intention by income, education, language and religion, along with more familiar breakdowns by state.

The Australian has published a set of geographic and demographic breakdowns compiled from multiple recent Newspoll results, once a regular quarterly feature of the pollster notable for its results at state level, but now greatly expanded as more elaborate methods are adopted in response to last year’s pollster failure. Where in the such breakdowns were limited to geography, gender and age, there are now also education (no tertiary, technical and university), household income, English or non-English speaker at home, religion (only Christian and no religion are provided, but they presumably have a small sample result for other religions).

Compared with a national result of 50-50, the state breakdowns show level pegging in New South Wales (1.8% swing to Labor), 55-45 to Labor in Victoria (1.9% to Labor), 56-44 to the Coalition in Queensland (2.4% to Labor), 55-45 ditto in Western Australia (0.6% swing to Labor, and 53-47 to Labor in South Australia (2.3%). These suggest statistically indistinguishable swings to Labor of 1.8% in New South Wales, 1.9% in Victoria, 2.4% in Queensland, 0.6% in Western Australia and 2.3% in South Australia. The primary votes are notably strong for the Greens in Queensland, up nearly three points from the election to 13%, and One Nation in Western Australia, who are on 9% after never having done better than 7% in the last term.

The age breakdowns are notable for the 62-38 lead to Labor among the 18-34 cohort, a differential quite a lot greater than that recorded by Newspoll in the previous term, which ranged from 4% to 8% compared with the present 12%. The gender gap — 52-48 to the Coalition among men and the reverse among women — is at levels not seen since the Tony Abbott prime ministership, whether due to genuine churn in voting intention or (more likely I think) a change in the pollster’s house effect.

Analysis of the education breakdowns is made easy by the fact that two-party is 50-50 for all three cohorts, with even the primary vote breakdowns recording little variation, other than university graduates being somewhat more disposed to the Greens and allergic to One Nation. As the table below illustrates, there are notable differences between these numbers and comparable findings for the Australian National University’s post-election Australian Election Study survey, which recorded a strong leftward lean among the university-educated compared with those without qualifications and, especially, those with non-tertiary qualifications.

For income, Newspoll reflects the Australian Election Study in finding the low-to-middle income cohort being Labor’s strongest, with a relative weakness among the low-income cohort presumably reflecting their lack of support in rural and regional areas. However, the distinctions are less marked in Newspoll, which credits the Coalition with 46% of the primary vote among the top household income cohort (in this case kicking in at $150,000) compared with 51% in the Australian Election Study, with Labor respectively at 34% and 32%. Differences were predictably pronounced according to language (51-49 to the Coalition among those speaking English only, 57-43 to Labor among those speaking a different language at home) and religion (58-42 to the Coalition among Christians, the reverse among the non-religious).

The results are combined from the last four Newspoll surveys, collectively conducted between March 11 and May 16, from a sample of 6032, with state sample sizes ranging from 472 (suggesting a 4.5% margin of error on the South Australian result) to 1905 (suggesting 2.2% in New South Wales.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,634 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns broken down”

  1. It continues…

    3. What is this class action?
    This class action is brought by the Applicants on their own behalf and on behalf of all persons who are “class members” as defined in the proceeding.
    The Applicants allege in the statement of claim in this proceeding that since 1 July 2015, Centrelink has sent to class members a notification (by mail, email, ‘myGov’ or the ‘Centrelink Express’ app) claiming that there was a difference between the income information obtained by Centrelink from the Australian Taxation Office and that used by Centrelink in assessing Centrelink payments, claiming that class members had been overpaid, and demanded that the claimed overpayment had to be paid back. Class members have received these demands and have paid, had paid on their behalf, or had recovered from them (by, for example, demands from debt collectors, or having had their tax returns garnished) amounts for these claimed overpayments.
    The Applicants allege that Centrelink had no right to demand or recover any part of these overpayments, and that in doing so, the Commonwealth has been unjustly enriched, and has been negligent.
    The Respondent to the class action is the Commonwealth of Australia, being the legal entity responsible for Centrelink. The Respondent admits that it has made demands and recovered parts of some overpayments, but says that in some cases, there was a valid basis known as a ‘juristic reason’ to recover the overpayments because the recipients were actually overpaid. The Applicants say that there is no such thing as a ‘juristic reason’ in Australian law. The Respondent denies that it was negligent as alleged by the Applicants.
    4. What is ‘Opt Out’?
    The Applicants in a class action do not need to seek the consent of class members to commence a class action on their behalf or to identify a specific class member. However, class members can cease to be class members by opting out of the class action. An explanation of how class members are able to opt out is found below in the section headed “How can you opt out of the proceeding”.

  2. One of the issues with managing the biodiversity consequences of human population levels are the policy settings to do with repair as opposed to stopping the damage in the first place.
    This matters.

    The Macquarie Island feral eradication program, for example, cost $25 million.

    Clearly, the best thing to do would be to put a hold on population growth while we spend the tens of billions required to repair environmental damage that is already in the can.

    When biodiversity losses have been stabilized then we would be in a position to look at managing additional population while maintaining biodiversity.

    I look forward to Mr Bandt taking these considerations into account when he implements the Greens policy to hold a community debate on population and migration.

    The ball is in your court, Mr Bandt. You have the remit from Greens supporters. It is in the Australian Greens Official Policies. It is late, but not too late. Every week counts.

  3. Apparently the ‘class action opt out’ letter was sent to 600,000 Centrelink recipients.

    I suppose the 2,030 who have died after being subjected to Robodebt, may be deemed to have ‘opted out’

  4. C@tmomma @ #2328 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 5:42 pm

    Bill Shorten: “That’s just more spin from Scotty from Marketing.” 😀

    Excellent work from Bill Shorten.

    I look forward to every other Labor talking head incorporating ‘Scotty from Marketing’ into their pressers every day from now to the next election.

  5. I wonder what the lesser educated and/or non English speaking Robodebt victims make of this?

    8. What class members need to do
    (a) How you can remain a class member?
    If you wish to remain a class member there is nothing you need to do at the present time. The Applicants will continue to bring the proceeding on your behalf up to the point where the Court determines those questions that are common to the claims of the Applicants and the class members. However, you are invited to contact the Applicants’ lawyers, Gordon Legal, at http://www.gordonlegal.com.au/robodebt-class-action/ and register as a class member so that future notices about the class action can be sent to your preferred address.
    (b) How you can opt out of the class action?
    If you do not wish to remain a class member you must opt out of the class action. If you opt out you will not be bound by or entitled to share in the benefit of any order, judgment or settlement in the class action, but you will be at liberty to bring your own claim against the Respondent, provided that you issue Court proceedings within the time limit applicable to your claim. If you wish to bring your own claim against the Respondent, you should seek your own legal advice about your claim and the applicable time limit prior to opting out.
    If you wish to opt out of the class action you must do so by completing a “Notice of opting out by class member” in the form shown below (Form 21 of the Court’s approved forms), then returning it to the Registrar of the Federal Court of Australia at the address on the form. IMPORTANT: the Notice must reach the Registrar by no later than 29 June 2020, otherwise it will not be effective.
    You should submit the Notice of opting out by class member if:
    (i) you qualify as a class member and you wish to opt out of the class action; or
    (ii) you believe that you have been incorrectly identified as a class member, because you do not meet the criteria set out in the section headed “Are you a class member” above.

    Each class member seeking to opt out should fill out a separate form.

  6. Re-reading some of that Environmental ‘Assessment’ I realise how strange it is that the corporate world is so against red tape. A low red tape regime would simply say it is against the law to blow up a significant indigenous heritage site as determined by an independent board nominated by academia. End of law. No room for weasels. The vast majority of people would approve of such a law. But a mountain of red tape allows anything with enough money to wind its way through to approvals.

    Big corporations and mining companies dont want clarity. They do not want clearly defined rules. Grey is their favourite colour. They constantly push up against what is reasonable, pursue projects that cross way over the line on what is appropriate. And on the odd occasion they get caught out with a refusal they cry blue murder on ‘red tape’.

  7. boerwars

    It is a terrible thing for democracy, for human rights and for western civilization that Xi’s China, led by a dictator, a genocide, a mass murderer, an enemy of human rights, and an enemy of democracy feels able to mock the United States.

    The people of Syria,Libya,Honduras etc etc etc are truly heartbroken that this has come to pass.

  8. poroti says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 7:39 pm

    boerwars

    It is a terrible thing for democracy, for human rights and for western civilization that Xi’s China, led by a dictator, a genocide, a mass murderer, an enemy of human rights, and an enemy of democracy feels able to mock the United States.

    The people of Syria,Libya,Honduras etc etc etc are truly heartbroken that this has come to pass.
    _______
    And this from the guy that celebrates Hiroshima every year.

  9. sprocket_ says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 7:44 pm

    What is your position on what option Harry Truman should have chosen in 1945?
    ______
    I think that all Allied Commanders and politicians that approved and implemented policies of bombing civilian targets should have been tried as war criminals.

  10. poroti
    You are right that the US has beyond question done massive evil in the world.
    It has also been a positive force driving the development of democracies and of human rights around the world.
    That driving force has now gone into reverse.
    The ChCom, OTOH, do not have that driving force, have never had that driving force. Not interested.

  11. poroti says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 7:47 pm

    nath
    Well Nippon did end the glorious Nederlandse koloniale rijk out this part of the world.
    _______
    And we were the unfortunates who ended up with him.

  12. sprocket_ says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 7:44 pm

    What is your position on what option Harry Truman should have chosen in 1945?
    _________
    I mean call me crazy but I draw the line at fire bombing and radiating children. Pretty left wing of me I know, pretty hippy-ish and all.

    OTOH I assume you approve of the fire bombing and radiating of children, under certain conditions of course.

  13. Haven’t upgraded my mobile in nearly 8 years, and am disappointed the diversity of devices and brands is now almost zero, limited essentially to iPhone or Samsung! Neither are much chop in my opinion.

  14. Confessions

    I have a design for a new smartphone.. if you have a spare $50 million or so I can discuss it with you 🙂

  15. sprocket_ says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 7:53 pm
    nath, unlike you, BW is an ornament to this blog. He doesn’t come on and slag individual commenters
    _____________________-

    You on the wacky tobaccky again ?

  16. p

    People rightly condemn Churchill for the death of 2-3 millions in the Bengal Famine. But that was chicken feed compared with what Hirohito and his cronies got up to.

    The Pacific War which ran for about eight years, killed on average 10,000 civilians a day.
    Hiroshima was barely a week’s worth. But, if had been up to me I would have dropped the bomb on top of the Imperial Palace.

    Hiroshima did not stop a war which would otherwise have continued at the rate of 10,000 civilians a day. That happened with Nagasaki. And even then there was a day or two at 10,000 a day to be frittered away by the evil set of war criminals who ran Japan at that time.

    The only people who seriously oppose Hiroshima and Nagasaki in retrospect are the rump Japanese right wing fanatics who have managed to turn themselves into WW2 martyrs, worshippers at the Yasukuni Shrine, assorted people who are essentially a-historical, and people who weep for the people of Hiroshima but who can’t count to 10,000 innocent men, women and children a day.

    One of the truly great benefits of the Pacific War is that it it finished off the British, French and Dutch imperial regimes over much of the Pacific, South Asia and South-east Asia.

    For those who appreciate nuance with their history, it was not the Japanese who finished off the NEI. In the case of the NEI, what killed the Imperium stone dead, was the threat by the United States to withhold Marshall Aid from Holland if it did not get the fuck out of Indonesia pronto.

  17. Confessions @ #2522 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 5:56 pm

    Haven’t upgraded my mobile in nearly 8 years, and am disappointed the diversity of devices and brands is now almost zero, limited essentially to iPhone or Samsung! Neither are much chop in my opinion.

    My Huawei is serving me well and it was heaps cheaper.

    Just don’t tell the Potato.

  18. Haven’t upgraded my mobile in nearly 8 years, and am disappointed the diversity of devices and brands is now almost zero, limited essentially to iPhone or Samsung! Neither are much chop in my opinion.

    Oppo? Pixel? LG? Nokia? Xiaomi?

    Oh, hang on, maybe Oppo is not for you.

    OPPO, a mobile phone brand enjoyed by young people around the world

    How about the Jitterbug Flip?

  19. I love the A-bomb debate, it is almost as revealing as your stance on Israel.

    Harry Truman’s decision saved an incredible number of lives, some of whom would have been Australians.

    The Japanese and the Germans were awful genocidal supporting populations in WW 2. Allied bombing was richly justified.

  20. boerwar

    No doubt the Ramsay course in Western Civilization, with the help of the Narcissist in Chief, can sort the US out.
    —————-
    The USA has only a tenuous connection to Western Civilisation so should have almost no place in a course on that subject.

  21. The Americans could have blockaded Japan and brought it to surrender without firing a shot, this is something anybody with an understanding of history knows. Japan had about two weeks supply of food and fuel, if that. The main justification for using the bomb was to shake a big stick at the Soviets in the aftermath of the war. It was simply an expression of US strategic power. Let us also be in no doubt that having spent hundreds of millions of dollars on the Manhattan Project, the US government was under pressure to justify this expense by using the bomb. The Americans also used it because they wanted a real life scenario regarding their research. The Enola Gay had an escort of other planes loaded with scientific equipment to see just how things turned out. Lastly, if was good enough for Eisenhower and MacArthur to oppose the use of atomic weapons against Japan, then it is good enough for me. Of course all those little kids and women had blood on their hands and had to face the consequences of their dastardly behaviour. What moron actually believes that?

  22. H

    Indeed.
    Australian POWs on the Burma Railroad were dying like flies on a daily basis.
    For those who enjoy their history with a bit of colour, the Yasukuni Shrine gives pride of place to locomotive C5631. Whenever the Japanese government of the day feels the need to piss off its neighbours government ministers visit the Shrine to do some worship. Apart from C5631, the Shrine is there to worship the spirits of an assorted of war criminals.

    C5631 drew the first train from one end to another of the Burma Railroad.

    A rough calculation shows there was at least one death for every sleeper laid along that railway. Not well-known is that by far and away the majority who died on the Burma Railway were forced slave labour Malays and Indonesians – far more than died in either Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

    The people who are concerned about Hiroshima and Nagasaki don’t even know about the virtual massacre by neglect of the Malays and Indonesian civilians on the Burma Railroad.

    What sort of people would have such a symbol of mass murder in pride of place?

  23. ‘clem attlee says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 8:25 pm

    The Americans could have blockaded Japan and brought it to surrender without firing a shot, this is something anybody with an understanding of history knows’

    Ah, history! Just two weeks?

    Two weeks is 14 days is, at the average rate of deaths, 140,000 additional civilians who would have died.

    Given what happened at Okinawa there can be little doubt that the Japanese military would have concentrated the food to the soldiery and allowed Japanese civilians to starve to death.

    Let’s say that the blockade stretched to a month. That is, at the average rate of 10,000 civilians a day, an additional 300,000 dead civilians. Unconscionable, IMO.

    The only people who argue against Hiroshima and Nagasaki are those who are utterly determined to ignore the rate at which civilians were dying AND who ignore the known behaviour of the Japanese military leadership.

  24. ‘Rakali says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 8:20 pm

    boerwar

    No doubt the Ramsay course in Western Civilization, with the help of the Narcissist in Chief, can sort the US out.
    —————-
    The USA has only a tenuous connection to Western Civilisation so should have almost no place in a course on that subject.’

    The US was heavily responsible for forcing democracy on Japan, kicking starting democracy in Germany, for saving western and southern europe from both the fascists and Stalin’s communists, for freeing much of Africa, Asia and the Pacific from truly vicious colonial yokes. On the way through it did terribly evil things in places like Vietnam.

    US good and the evil are an on-balance thing.

    The terribly sad consequences of a succession of wrong-headed and evil wars over the past 30 years and of the election of Trump is that the US is vacating its world leadership role. US isolationism is rampant.
    The consequent vacuum is not being filled with goodness and light. It is being filled by evil bastards like Putin and Xi.

  25. We look at the racial tensions bubbling over in the US, but lets not forget we’re not immune to displays of racism.

    Anti-Discrimination NSW has recorded a surge in anti-Asian racism during the coronavirus pandemic.

    The state anti-discrimination body has received 241 official complaints in the four months between 1 January to 30 April this year. Of those, 62 were on the grounds of race – an average of four complaints a week just in one state.

    This includes people being abused or spat at in public, harassed for wearing a face mask, and car windows being smashed.

    Those statistics also do not include other complaints referred to the New South Wales police, rather than Anti-Discrimination NSW, which were more serious.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/01/anti-asian-racism-surges-in-nsw-during-coronavirus-pandemic

  26. Boer, I don’t base my analysis on heroic assumptions. Also, there was a peace group within the Japanese government, one well known to the US. They made no attempt to work with them. Also, why drop a second bomb? The government was completely dysfunctional in the immediate aftermath of the Hiroshima bomb, but the US dropped the second one because they felt that the Japanese did not react quickly enough. Of course all those women and children were culpable weren’t they?

  27. Not unsurprisingly, the Great Hope of the App, is barely rating a mention at the moment as Oz flocks back to doing what Oz does……..
    In the UK they are just cranking up such a process and it is getting about the same amount of attention and success The App has had here.
    Perhaps if Scotty from Marketing had not oversold it, perhaps if it was actually effective and perhaps if there was more trust in this government, The App might have been a useful tool…………..
    In the meantime it will join other Liberal ploys (such as the frig magnets —-“Be Alert Not Alarmed” crap was it not?) on the junk heap of cheap gimmicks for the plebs…………………….from the LNP…..

  28. clem atlee, we civilians can’t understand the weighty matters that great military strategists like Field Marshall Boerwar intrinsically grasp. Have you seen his Field Marshalls’ baton. It’s very impressive:

  29. Tricot @ #2541 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 6:39 pm

    Not unsurprisingly, the Great Hope of the App, is barely rating a mention at the moment as Oz flocks back to doing what Oz does……..
    In the UK they are just cranking up such a process and it is getting about the same amount of attention and success The App has had here.
    Perhaps if Scotty from Marketing had not oversold it, perhaps if it was actually effective and perhaps if there was more trust in this government, The App might have been a useful tool…………..
    In the meantime it will join other Liberal ploys (such as the frig magnets —-“Be Alert Not Alarmed” crap was it not?) on the junk heap of cheap gimmicks for the plebs…………………….from the LNP…..

    I think it just highlights how little these guys understand technology.

    It sounded good in theory and they got all excited, but in practice it wasn’t anything like they imagined.

  30. ‘clem attlee says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 8:39 pm

    Boer, I don’t base my analysis on heroic assumptions. Also, there was a peace group within the Japanese government, one well known to the US. They made no attempt to work with them. Also, why drop a second bomb? The government was completely dysfunctional in the immediate aftermath of the Hiroshima bomb, but the US dropped the second one because they felt that the Japanese did not react quickly enough. Of course all those women and children were culpable weren’t they?’

    Ah, heroic assumptions! Bushido?

    You can do the math yourself, Clem. Just tally the total civilian casualties during the eight years of the Pacific War with the number of days of the war and it comes to roughly 10,000 a day.

    Most of those civilians were not Japanese, of course. Two and a half million Javanese starved to death while the IJA hoarded food during 1942 alone. Of all the people over the years I have seen talk about Hiroshima not a single one mentions the 1942 massacre of millions of Javanese civilians. The dead littered the streets.
    A million civilians died in Burma. I bet you did not know about that, either. But you do know about Hiroshima!
    You know all about history.
    A million died in the Battle of Manila. The Japanese would not allow the civilians to leave the city. In fact, they wired lots of them up with barbed wire. But you DO know about Hiroshima.
    The Japanese military had known for years that they were beaten militarily.

    But, as anyone who has actually studied Japanese history knows, the military were going to hang out for as long as possible in order to try and force some face saving agreement.

    And if 10,000 innocent men, women and children a day were the price, why, the Japanese military had been exacting that price for eight long years. No sweat.

  31. ” great military strategists”

    Someone who can coordinate the mass killing of others as efficiently and effectively as possible and as a result wins public acclaim instead of a prison cell.

  32. All those innocent women and children in Japan, unfortunately had menfolk deployed across Asia who killed, humiliated, raped, starved, enslaved millions of people. Very unfortunate- perhaps the peaceniks in Japan could have talked them out of the Bushido code – we will never know.

  33. boerwar

    US good and the evil are an on-balance thing.
    ————
    Don’t forget the Nazis sent a delegation of lawyers and other officials to the USA to learn from the experts how to sterilise those considered unworthy to breed (eugenics) and how to legislate and administrate laws to control/marginalise “inferior” races (racism).

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