Newspoll breakdowns broken down

Newspoll offers a deep dive into its recent polling data, offering unprecedented detail on voting intention by income, education, language and religion, along with more familiar breakdowns by state.

The Australian has published a set of geographic and demographic breakdowns compiled from multiple recent Newspoll results, once a regular quarterly feature of the pollster notable for its results at state level, but now greatly expanded as more elaborate methods are adopted in response to last year’s pollster failure. Where in the such breakdowns were limited to geography, gender and age, there are now also education (no tertiary, technical and university), household income, English or non-English speaker at home, religion (only Christian and no religion are provided, but they presumably have a small sample result for other religions).

Compared with a national result of 50-50, the state breakdowns show level pegging in New South Wales (1.8% swing to Labor), 55-45 to Labor in Victoria (1.9% to Labor), 56-44 to the Coalition in Queensland (2.4% to Labor), 55-45 ditto in Western Australia (0.6% swing to Labor, and 53-47 to Labor in South Australia (2.3%). These suggest statistically indistinguishable swings to Labor of 1.8% in New South Wales, 1.9% in Victoria, 2.4% in Queensland, 0.6% in Western Australia and 2.3% in South Australia. The primary votes are notably strong for the Greens in Queensland, up nearly three points from the election to 13%, and One Nation in Western Australia, who are on 9% after never having done better than 7% in the last term.

The age breakdowns are notable for the 62-38 lead to Labor among the 18-34 cohort, a differential quite a lot greater than that recorded by Newspoll in the previous term, which ranged from 4% to 8% compared with the present 12%. The gender gap — 52-48 to the Coalition among men and the reverse among women — is at levels not seen since the Tony Abbott prime ministership, whether due to genuine churn in voting intention or (more likely I think) a change in the pollster’s house effect.

Analysis of the education breakdowns is made easy by the fact that two-party is 50-50 for all three cohorts, with even the primary vote breakdowns recording little variation, other than university graduates being somewhat more disposed to the Greens and allergic to One Nation. As the table below illustrates, there are notable differences between these numbers and comparable findings for the Australian National University’s post-election Australian Election Study survey, which recorded a strong leftward lean among the university-educated compared with those without qualifications and, especially, those with non-tertiary qualifications.

For income, Newspoll reflects the Australian Election Study in finding the low-to-middle income cohort being Labor’s strongest, with a relative weakness among the low-income cohort presumably reflecting their lack of support in rural and regional areas. However, the distinctions are less marked in Newspoll, which credits the Coalition with 46% of the primary vote among the top household income cohort (in this case kicking in at $150,000) compared with 51% in the Australian Election Study, with Labor respectively at 34% and 32%. Differences were predictably pronounced according to language (51-49 to the Coalition among those speaking English only, 57-43 to Labor among those speaking a different language at home) and religion (58-42 to the Coalition among Christians, the reverse among the non-religious).

The results are combined from the last four Newspoll surveys, collectively conducted between March 11 and May 16, from a sample of 6032, with state sample sizes ranging from 472 (suggesting a 4.5% margin of error on the South Australian result) to 1905 (suggesting 2.2% in New South Wales.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,634 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns broken down”

  1. Simon Katichs

    No. Trump can barely flip a coin.

    Trump has smarts.

    Indeed, after all he got himself sitting here while the other 330 million schmucks are ???

  2. poroti @ #2452 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 5:25 pm

    Simon Katichs

    No. Trump can barely flip a coin.

    Trump has smarts.

    Indeed, after all he got himself sitting here while the other 330 million schmucks are ???
    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    And sensible commentators have been saying, where’s Kim Kardashian and her concern for African Americans’ rights now? She’s silent.

  3. mundo bought not one, but two LandRovers
    now he’s taking his misery out on bludgers
    go top up your precious vehicular fluids mundo

  4. Simon Katich @ #2446 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 5:24 pm

    Just like Scrooter.
    Scrooter has ’em in spades.
    Just ask Albo.

    I like to stir the pot. Often. But jeebus MOFO X you need to try a different stew for a change and give us all a holiday FFS.

    Just like Scrooter, with 1 cinnamon stick, 2 bay leaves (fresh) and 4-6 juniper berries, carrot, celery, onion, stick, red wine, whole black pepper corns.
    Scrooter Stew.

  5. George Floyd’s death brings back trauma for family of Aboriginal man who died in custody

    An inquest in 2019 was shown handheld camera footage of Mr Dungay being restrained face down by up to five members of the jail’s Immediate Action Team (IAT) as he yelled “I can’t breathe” several times.
    “We’re outraged about what’s happening in Minneapolis, but really us guys home in Australia need to take a stand together here, the First Nation’s people and the non-First Nations people, because they’re showing a lot of support through this as well, because they can actually see the racism and injustice against our people.”

  6. Didn’t I tell you mundo was a waste of your time? He hasn’t been wasting mine for a loooong time.

    Anyone ever stopped to think that maybe his prescience about Labor’s fate at the last federal election could have come via inside knowledge from Liberal campaign HQ? It’s very easy to deny, of course. Doesn’t make it untrue. The Liberal Party’s motto is, after all, ‘Black Ops Yay!’

  7. Cud Chewer @ #2440 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 5:07 pm

    “As the number of candidates for the #EdenMonaro by-elections hits double figures, is it time to bring back local nominators? Independents must have 100 local voters as nominators. Why should every registered party have the right to run without local nominators? #auspol”

    Would this have put the brakes on Clive Palmer?

    No if you follow Antony’s suggestion for by elections only. Even then I’m sure he might try and buy his way around any limitations. With resources most really independent candidates would be lacking. Limits of private or corporate election campaign funding would.

    As general elections I guess place limits on most small parties fielding candidates at all electorates and indy’s require the 100 electorate nominators anyway. With no limit on candidates being from anywhere in the electorate. Really minor parties are all able to potentially focus and campaign in a single by election but not across all electorates at a general election. If people actually want to vote for a candidate from elsewhere that is OK apparently, no legal need to even live there it seems.
    The growing non LNP and ALP vote seems to be part of it as well.

  8. I am always a bit wary of making people have to live in the electorates they are representing.

    People who live right on the boundary would end up having to move seats every redistribution. Have two popular members of the opposite party next to one another, their is a real easy way of making it only one popular member.

  9. I see Bill Shorten trying to take the credit for opposing Robodebt that rightly belongs to the Greens. Not a word from Shorten about Robodebt before the election. Meanwhile the Greens were all over that shit. Not impressed by Shorten at all. A small man with a large ambition that was not realised. Similar to Napoleon, but at least Napoleon ruled for a decade or so.

  10. nath

    All Shorten has mentioned is the class action, which he suggests forced the government’s hand in speeding up the reversal last Friday. He was not boasting and very quiet. Your petticoat is showing.

  11. meha baba:

    [‘And there’s evidence that some of the people who make a big fuss about it are actually criminals who want to bring about a fall in the level of policing in Black communities…’]

    Well, this has the flavour of BS. Please cite evidence thereof.

  12. I’d like to know where the money is to update my kitchen. New splashbacks and benchtops please. I assume it’s not a loan and is free?

  13. Who would have thought a LNP government would double the dole, paid wages for people and now giving money away for renos! It’s a paradise on earth!

  14. One of Morrison’s worst characteristics is to promise money, saying he’ll working out the detail later. Then mates jump in to get the advantage by lobbying and by the time it’s given out there’s nothing left.

  15. Last year we were all thinking that Trump’s Presidency would end in a shoot-out because gun ownership, perhaps with Trump leading in front. Instead we have a different type of revolution and Trump’s hiding in a bunker. Not what he planned, I think.

  16. Taylormade @ #2471 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 6:26 pm

    The govt will be happy that it is Shorten who is leading labors response to robodebt.

    The Government showing happiness, hubris and arrogance again is not the space they need to be in now and I doubt the hard heads in the Liberal party will be advocating such a position.

  17. lizzie @ #2472 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 6:35 pm

    Last year we were all thinking that Trump’s Presidency would end in a shoot-out because gun ownership, perhaps with Trump leading in front. Instead we have a different type of revolution and Trump’s hiding in a bunker. Not what he planned, I think.

    I seem to recall that there was another political figure who ended his time in a bunker.

  18. nath @ #2474 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 6:29 pm

    Who would have thought a LNP government would double the dole, paid wages for people and now giving money away for renos! It’s a paradise on earth!

    They can’t be Santa Claus forever. The PWC report released today had some uncomfortable numbers in it that would be giving Joshie and Scott heartburn tonight.

  19. BOB LYNCH:

    [‘Has Jenny Hocking been able to open the Kerr Queen letters yet?’]

    I think she’s hamstrung by the C-19 travel restrictions.

  20. GG

    That’s a name that I have banished from my consciousness.

    Here you are – no detail.

    The residential building industry and the arts are the focus of a new round of coronavirus economic stimulus being finalised by the federal government.

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison said he and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg were working on the new stimulus measures, but did not offer details.

    The Australian newspaper has reported that direct cash grants for home renovations could be part of a multibillion-dollar building stimulus package.

    But the government refused to confirm those details when asked by the ABC.

  21. The most recent environmental review for the original project appears to be this, dated July 2014. It manages to not mention the rockshelters, despite that they had been thoroughly studied by then, and despite touting consultation with Traditional Owners.

    It kinda does – in general terms. On page 111. Usual ‘nothing to see here’ or ‘dont look too closely’ garbage … then they go and get approvals for the nasty work elsewhere. The Environment group at Rio should hang their head in shame over it – yet I guess when you get paid the big bucks to be a company pragmatist….

  22. I wonder Scotty Daddy from Scomosa Marketing’s reno kite will fly?
    I hope so. I happy to add to the capital value of my home for free using other peoples’ money. I’m happy to use the money to pay tradies to do it, too.

  23. I’d be wary of guys coming to your door offering to repaint your roof or put in a new driveway. A Current Affair has dined out on stories about these shonks for decades!

  24. Indigenous Australians are policed and jailed at rates far higher than Afro-Americans.

    If you are an Indigenous teenager in WA you are around 16 times more likely to be policed than if you are a non-Indigenous teenager.

  25. It is a terrible thing for democracy, for human rights and for western civilization that Xi’s China, led by a dictator, a genocide, a mass murderer, an enemy of human rights, and an enemy of democracy feels able to mock the United States.

  26. Who else here thinks that reopening poker machine rooms is an absolutely stupid thing to do?

    These rooms are deliberately designed to be poorly ventilated and you’ve got no hope of cleaning surfaces between users.

  27. Just reading the Robodebt class action letter my kid received – given he has 2 degrees, including a Masters and is very gainfully employed, I was still not surprised he had no idea what this meant…

    1. Why is this notice important?
    A class action has been commenced in the Federal Court of Australia by Katherine Prygodicz and others against the Commonwealth of Australia. The action alleges that the alleged debts calculated by Centrelink on the basis of differences between income information obtained by Centrelink from the Australian Taxation Office and information that Centrelink used to assess Centrelink payments were unlawful, and that the Commonwealth is liable in unjust enrichment or negligence (or both) for any money that it has obtained in relation to the alleged debts, sometimes known as ‘robodebts’.
    The Federal Court has ordered that this notice be published for the information of persons who might be members of the class on whose behalf the action is brought and may be affected by the action. You have been identified as a potential class member. You should read this
    notice carefully. Any questions you have concerning the matters contained in this notice should not be directed to the Court. If there is anything in it that you do not understand, you should seek legal advice.

    2. What is a class action?
    A class action is an action that is brought by one or more persons (“Applicants”) on his or her own behalf and on behalf of a class of people (“class members”) against another person (“Respondent”) where the Applicants and the class members have similar claims against the Respondent.
    Class members in a class action are not individually responsible for the legal costs associated with bringing the class action. In a class action, only the Applicants are responsible for the costs.
    Class members are “bound” by the outcome in the class action, unless they have opted out of the proceeding. A binding result can happen in two ways being either a judgment following a trial, or a settlement at any time. If there is a judgment or a settlement of a class action class members will not be able pursue the same claims and may not be able to pursue similar or related claims against the Respondent in other legal proceedings. Class members should note that:
    (a) in a judgment following trial, the Court will decide various factual and legal issues in respect of the claims made by the Applicants and class members. Unless those decisions are successfully appealed they bind the Applicants, class members and the Respondent. Importantly, if there are other proceedings between a class member and the Respondent, it may be that neither of them will be permitted to raise arguments in that proceeding which are inconsistent with a factual or legal issue decided in the class action.
    (b) in a settlement of a class action, where the settlement provides for compensation to class members it may extinguish all rights to compensation which a class member might have against the Respondent which arise in any way out of the events or transactions which are the subject-matter of the class action.
    If you consider that you have claims against the Respondent which are based on your individual circumstances or otherwise additional to the claims described in the class action, then it is important that you seek independent legal advice about the potential binding effects of the class action before the deadline for opting out (see below).

    6 more pages of this….

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