Newspoll breakdowns broken down

Newspoll offers a deep dive into its recent polling data, offering unprecedented detail on voting intention by income, education, language and religion, along with more familiar breakdowns by state.

The Australian has published a set of geographic and demographic breakdowns compiled from multiple recent Newspoll results, once a regular quarterly feature of the pollster notable for its results at state level, but now greatly expanded as more elaborate methods are adopted in response to last year’s pollster failure. Where in the such breakdowns were limited to geography, gender and age, there are now also education (no tertiary, technical and university), household income, English or non-English speaker at home, religion (only Christian and no religion are provided, but they presumably have a small sample result for other religions).

Compared with a national result of 50-50, the state breakdowns show level pegging in New South Wales (1.8% swing to Labor), 55-45 to Labor in Victoria (1.9% to Labor), 56-44 to the Coalition in Queensland (2.4% to Labor), 55-45 ditto in Western Australia (0.6% swing to Labor, and 53-47 to Labor in South Australia (2.3%). These suggest statistically indistinguishable swings to Labor of 1.8% in New South Wales, 1.9% in Victoria, 2.4% in Queensland, 0.6% in Western Australia and 2.3% in South Australia. The primary votes are notably strong for the Greens in Queensland, up nearly three points from the election to 13%, and One Nation in Western Australia, who are on 9% after never having done better than 7% in the last term.

The age breakdowns are notable for the 62-38 lead to Labor among the 18-34 cohort, a differential quite a lot greater than that recorded by Newspoll in the previous term, which ranged from 4% to 8% compared with the present 12%. The gender gap — 52-48 to the Coalition among men and the reverse among women — is at levels not seen since the Tony Abbott prime ministership, whether due to genuine churn in voting intention or (more likely I think) a change in the pollster’s house effect.

Analysis of the education breakdowns is made easy by the fact that two-party is 50-50 for all three cohorts, with even the primary vote breakdowns recording little variation, other than university graduates being somewhat more disposed to the Greens and allergic to One Nation. As the table below illustrates, there are notable differences between these numbers and comparable findings for the Australian National University’s post-election Australian Election Study survey, which recorded a strong leftward lean among the university-educated compared with those without qualifications and, especially, those with non-tertiary qualifications.

For income, Newspoll reflects the Australian Election Study in finding the low-to-middle income cohort being Labor’s strongest, with a relative weakness among the low-income cohort presumably reflecting their lack of support in rural and regional areas. However, the distinctions are less marked in Newspoll, which credits the Coalition with 46% of the primary vote among the top household income cohort (in this case kicking in at $150,000) compared with 51% in the Australian Election Study, with Labor respectively at 34% and 32%. Differences were predictably pronounced according to language (51-49 to the Coalition among those speaking English only, 57-43 to Labor among those speaking a different language at home) and religion (58-42 to the Coalition among Christians, the reverse among the non-religious).

The results are combined from the last four Newspoll surveys, collectively conducted between March 11 and May 16, from a sample of 6032, with state sample sizes ranging from 472 (suggesting a 4.5% margin of error on the South Australian result) to 1905 (suggesting 2.2% in New South Wales.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,634 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns broken down”

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  1. lizzie @ #2400 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 1:48 pm

    This is your IPA speaking. The good little puppets repeat the same rubbish every time. And these are your “research fellows”. 😆

    Australian Opinion
    @AusOpinion
    ·
    1m
    The way to create jobs and higher wages for Australians is not to have a narrow group of unionists try to rewrite laws, but to have governments cut red and green tape, reduce taxes and secure reliable electricity at affordable prices, writes Daniel Wild.

    It’s the IPA’s version of rape and pillage!

  2. Peg: “A Washington Post analysis has found that black Americans are disproportionately affected by police violence. …Since the start of 2015, 4,728 people across the country have died in police shootings and approximately half – 2,385 – were white. Out of the remainder, 1,252 were black, 877 were Hispanic and 214 were from other racial groups. The data looks different as a share of the population, however. Black Americans account for less than 13 percent of the population but they are shot and killed by the police at a rate that’s over twice as high as for white Americans.”

    And Black Americans are also more than twice as likely as Whites to be arrested for serious crimes, which is why so many of them come into contact with the police in the first place.

    I’ve looked at data on this in the past (if I get time I’ll find it and post a link) and I recall that hispanics are far more likely that either Whites or Blacks to be arrested for Federal offences (in particular, drug trafficking and people smuggling), whereas Blacks are far more likely than other groups to be arrested for state crimes such as murder, rape, assault, robbery with violence, break and enter, etc.

    What I’m trying to say is that there’s are enormous problems here, but attributing all (or even most) of then to “racism” is far too simplistic. And there’s evidence that some of the people who make a big fuss about it are actually criminals who want to bring about a fall in the level of policing in Black communities for all the wrong reasons. (And we’ve seen some of this in Australian indigenous communities as well.)

    Sure, some of the deaths we have been hearing a lot about – in particular George Floyd and also Ahmaud Arbery (who was killed by civilians rather than police officers) – were quite possibly motivated by racism. But many more, including some in which it was Black officers shooting Black people (or, in the celebrated case of Justine Damond, a Somali officer shooting a White woman), were motivated by fear: the quite reasonable fear on the part of police officers involved that they were being confronted by an armed criminal.

    I reckon that the biggest underlying problem here relates to the ludicrous US gun laws. It would be far more effective if the protesters could do something to change these, rather than to lash out at the problem of current racism in the US, to which there is no easy or quick solution and which is also clearly not the only cause of the problems in the African-American communities across the US.

  3. “Tried to organize a test before we go and visit our parents. Only interested if your a teacher or health worker if you have no symptoms.”

    Not hard to fake a cough. Tell em you feel sore too. No way to disprove that.

  4. frednk

    Tried to organize a test before we go and visit our parents. Only interested if your a teacher or health worker if you have no symptoms.

    They are still testing around 2000/day in SA. You sure you cant twist their arm?

    If you are allergic to cats/dogs/pollen/dust….

  5. what happens when the ..

    “biggest, strongest male (that) takes charge of the situation and starts doing what they wish with total impunity: smashing, burning, robbing, raping, settling old scores with enemies, etc.”

    is also the so called leader of the free world and has been behaving like this for 50 years… AND doesn’t need any excuse let alone “uncontrollable rioting” to destroy anything or anyone who gets in the way of his looting of trillions of dollars solely to enrich himself, his family and his criminal mates?

    How exactly should the 99% fight back against this when this same thug and his mates daily impede the protections and processes meant to limit his power and lift that of those who aren’t of his “breed”?

  6. Just heard Porter is falling on his sword and has apparently said Morrison should do the same over the shameful Robodebt catastrophe.

    Oh no, wait.
    It’s not true.

    Shut up Mundo, nobody cares about your stupid Robocop or whatever…..

  7. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 1:49 pm
    The Dems still have time to nominate someone better than Biden to fix things.
    ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    Is that deserving of first prize for irrelevant comment of the day?

  8. When I watch wounded being placed in ambulances in Australia, I get a sense of relief. “That’s OK then.”

    When I see the same in America I now think “How on earth are they going to pay for the treatment?”

  9. In cities across America on Sunday, people awoke to see shattered glass, charred vehicles, bruised bodies and graffiti-tagged buildings. Demonstrators gathered again in peaceful daytime protest of racial injustice. By evening, thousands had converged again in front of the White House, where people had rioted and set fires the night before.

    President Trump stayed safely ensconced inside and had nothing to say, besides tweeting fuel on the fire.

    Never in the 1,227 days of Trump’s presidency has the nation seemed to cry out for leadership as it did Sunday, yet Trump made no attempt to provide it.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-cities-burned-trump-stayed-silent–other-than-tweeting-fuel-on-the-fire/2020/05/31/4fc8761a-a354-11ea-b619-3f9133bbb482_story.html

    He was hiding away in a bunker under the WH.

  10. The scene; a room somewhere in parliament house.
    The characters; Morrison, Porter, Robert.

    Porter; It’s amazing what we can get away with….
    Morrison; (after a long pause) Yeah, thank god for the Labor party..
    Porter/Morrison/Robert; BWAHAHA HA HAAHHAHAHA HA HA HAHAHAHA……

  11. MB

    Just as your preoccupation with why people have not heard about Ms Clarke’s death on the basis of the Factiva Database is irrelevant….

    You may not have heard about it. In a search of the Factiva database over the past three months, I found only one article on Ms Clarke’s death – an AAP wire story that privileges the quote of the WA commissioner police over that of Ms Clarke’s community (‘it was, the report said, ‘one of the saddest days’ in his career). Earlier today, NITV published a piece quoting Ms Clarke’s mother.

    While the world has been understandably outraged at the police killing of African American man George Floyd and the modern-day lynching of Ahmaud Arbery by a former cop, Australian media have not followed Ms Clarke’s story. Australia is not similarly outraged, despite waves of protests by Aboriginal people.

    … so is your focus on reasons, including racism, for the disparity of white deaths versus black deaths in the US.

    The point is the claim more whites have died at the hands of police than blacks needs to be put in the context of what their respective proportions are of the total population.

    The statistics presented have nothing to do with why they were killed or the circumstances surrounding the police shootings.

  12. lizziesays: Monday, June 1, 2020 at 4:07 pm

    When I watch wounded being placed in ambulances in Australia, I get a sense of relief. “That’s OK then.”

    When I see the same in America I now think “How on earth are they going to pay for the treatment?”

    ********************************************************************

    COVID survivor receives $840,000 statement for treatment, with more on the way

    CENTENNIAL, Colo. — Robert Dennis spent weeks in the hospital, fighting and beating the coronavirus. He’s now back at home, working his way through recovery, but he’s not done with the virus entirely just yet. The high school teacher just received his first itemized statement for the cost of his care: $840,386.94.

    “Seeing that number yesterday for the first bill it kind of took your breath away again,” Robert’s wife Suzanne, who also beat the virus, told Denver7.

    https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/local-news/covid-survivor-receives-840-000-statement-for-treatment-with-more-on-the-way

  13. A slow burn…

    “Media constantly refer to Labor’s “pink batts” scheme as a “disaster”: it resulted in four accidental deaths and was the subject of a royal commission, but at least it had the laudable policy objective of insulating homes and stimulating economic activity during a threatened recession. But for sheer government incompetence and malevolence, nothing comes close to the disgraceful robodebt program, which was based on a tabloid myth of rampant welfare fraud, was heartlessly implemented, and which turned out to be illegal. On Friday afternoon we learnt that, in the face of litigation that threatened to embarrass key Coalition ministers, the federal government would refund a staggering $721 million in debts unlawfully charged to more than 373,000 vulnerable Australians. Attorney-General Christian Porter, who was the social services minister when the program was introduced, refused to apologise on the ABC’s Insiders yesterday, and said robodebts would be “zeroed”. But this utter debacle is about much more than the money, which always represented chicken feed for taxpayers but was literally a matter of life or death for the unfortunate recipients of unlawful debts.”

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2020/01/2020/1590990618/robo-dead

  14. Go Cathy Griff!

    What a way to go. The second line of the quote contains a clear and proveable lie.

    “Climate inaction from other parties, despite massive drought, fires, and flood, has propelled me to this candidacy.”

    That’s right. The last time the ALP were in power they were so inactive. Who could possibly remember “the carbon tax”?

    Or perhaps Cathy thinks not being in power you can still be active. In that case who needs to vote for her?

  15. Pegasus says:
    Just as your preoccupation with why people have not heard about Ms Clarke’s death on the basis of the Factiva Database is irrelevant
    —————————–
    I am not saying anything about Factiva Database.

    I am talking about the amount of coverage on channel 7 and channel 9 nightly news bulletins because that is where many if not the majority of people get their news from and those news services rarely report on anything to do with Indigenous Australians with most mentions being sports related.

  16. Raleigh NC.
    “The amazing site we saw this morning was people, just ordinary people who came downtown with cleaning supplies, brooms, trash cans, saws, and food. There had to be several hundred people downtown scraping paint off of buildings and monuments, putting sheathing over broken windows, sweeping up glass, handing out food and water to people cleaning up. One guy showed up with a bubble machine and filled an area of the street with bubbles, another guy who is a pretty good musician we have seen playing at the bars set up and started playing music for people. I think it was really cool the number of people who came out to pick up after the carnage. My wife and I wanted to help when we saw what was going on but there were so many people out there working on stuff there was not an area not attended to and not having PPE we figured would have freaked some of the people around us out if we got close to them and started helping.

    There are a lot of good people giving back to the community right now, its just not making the news. “

  17. So far Lady Gaga, Pink and Taylor Swift have called on their followers to vote Trump out

    81.5m, 32.1m and 86.3m followers on Twitter versus 81m for the fat man.

  18. Asher Wolff in the Canberra Times…

    “Robodebt was a terror campaign against class mobility. The automated data-matching program cost almost as much to run as it was projected to recoup.

    It was apparent the Coalition was stealing from the poor within months of Attorney-General Christian Porter (then social services minister) launching the scheme. The government hired debt collectors, made appeals difficult, imposed travel restrictions for those targeted and changed the statute of limitations on debt collection. Despite immediate complaints of false debts, the Coalition refused to change course.”

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6775350/robodebt-was-an-algorithmic-weapon-of-calculated-political-cruelty/

  19. Bernard Keane not impressed by the behaviour of the bureaucrats.

    It’s pro forma to call for a royal commission into any minor scandal these days, but the case for a judicial inquiry into the debacle is compelling. It would be able to examine not merely the issue of what was known about the unlawfulness of the scheme, but the human cost of the scheme, the government’s use of private debt collectors to pursue victims, the release of the private information of Andie Fox by departmental officials when she dared to criticise the scheme (disgustingly defended by Campbell, Musolino and other officials in 2018), the government’s legal strategy of avoiding appealing AAT decision if they might lead to exposure of the unlawfulness of the scheme, and behaviour in Centrelink’s “debt recovery offices”.

    Morrison can try to run away from his debacle, but serious questions about why a government embarked on an unlawful campaign to immiserate hundreds of thousands of Australians will remain.

  20. With the developing field of candidates for Eden Monaro, Antony Greens sparks some debate about whether parties should also require 100 local nominators to run, as independents do apparently. Arguing with 40 parties registered and possible to field candidates in NSW, primarily with support from outside the electorate, the need for everyone to fill out every preferences correctly seems problematic. His words.

    Antony Green – @AntonyGreenABC
    As the number of candidates for the #EdenMonaro by-elections hits double figures, is it time to bring back local nominators? Independents must have 100 local voters as nominators. Why should every registered party have the right to run without local nominators? #auspol

    I can understand why nominators have been abandoned for general elections with the introduction of central nomination. But there are more than 40 registered parties and every one of them can nominate at a by-election without any local nominators. #auspol #EdenMonaro

    At the Dec 2017 New England by-elec, there were 17 candidates, half from nowhere near the electorate. 13 of them polled less than 2.5%. Every voter had to preference every candidate to cast a formal vote. A good reason to use local nomination to sieve the field. #auspol
    https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenABC/status/1267320481167753217

  21. The Leader of the Free World…

    “A combative President Trump on Sunday berated Democrats for not being tough enough on violent protesters and attributed the turmoil roiling the nation to radical leftists.

    Spurning advice from some campaign advisers to deliver a nationally televised address, Trump instead spent Sunday out of sight.

    But he kept on tweeting.

    “Get tough Democrat Mayors and Governors,” he wrote. Addressing his presumptive Democratic presidential opponent, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., he added: “These people are ANARCHISTS. Call in our National Guard NOW. The World is watching and laughing at you and Sleepy Joe. Is this what America wants? NO!!!”

    The president also said his administration “will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization,” employing a shorthand for “anti-fascist.” But antifa is a movement of activists who dress in black and call themselves anarchists, not an organization with a clear structure that can be penalized under law. Moreover, American law applies terrorist designations to foreign entities, not domestic groups.

    “While Mr. Trump has been a focus of anger, particularly in the crowds in Washington, aides repeatedly have tried to explain to him that the protests were not only about him, but about broader, systemic issues related to race. Privately, Mr. Trump’s advisers complained about his tweets, acknowledging that they were pouring fuel on an already incendiary situation.

    “Those are not constructive tweets, without any question,” Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, the only black Republican in the Senate, said in an interview on “Fox News Sunday.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/31/us/george-floyd-protests-live-updates.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

  22. Ewin Hannan
    @EwinHannan
    A Melbourne restaurateur, his two companies and in-house accountant have been penalised $209,000 for ripping off and exploiting vulnerable migrant workers by unlawfully paying them as little as $10 an hour. Comes as employers call for Victoria to delay its wage theft laws.

  23. Dave Sharma

    Patricia Barraclough
    @PMBarraclough
    ·
    1m

    On Sky, he misnamed George Floyd as Boy George. Then went on to say & tweet that whilst he’s sympathetic to Floyd family, the US protesters gone too far. Patricia Karvelas says we can’t mock his whiteboy privilege because he has Indian heritage. So will I mock his irrelevance

  24. “So far Lady Gaga, Pink and Taylor Swift have called on their followers to vote Trump out”

    Sprocket, are they also calling on their followers to register to vote and to actually turn out?

  25. “As the number of candidates for the #EdenMonaro by-elections hits double figures, is it time to bring back local nominators? Independents must have 100 local voters as nominators. Why should every registered party have the right to run without local nominators? #auspol”

    Would this have put the brakes on Clive Palmer?

  26. Fox Sports and former NRL player Matthew Johns have apologised for a comedy sketch where they used the NRL’s new cardboard cut-outs to put the face of Adolf Hitler into the crowd.

    As stadiums are empty, the league has launched an initiative where fans can pay $22 to send in photos and have a cardboard cut-out of themselves sit in the stands.

    However, multiple people have taken advantage of the scheme to submit childish and offensive jokes.

    Over the weekend, a photo of English serial killer Dr Harold Shipman was spotted in the stands – among other potential ‘joke’ cutouts – during the match between Newcastle and Penrith.

  27. obviously not mundo but there are a lot of fans that are of voting age.
    You can count me as a gaga fan, but I don’t get to vote in the US.

  28. MB

    those news services rarely report on anything to do with Indigenous Australians with most mentions being sports related.

    That’s the point. In Australia black lives matter so little that when there is a black death in custody or a black death by police shooting it is not even deemed ‘newsworthy’.

  29. Trump has been hiding in the bunker under the White House.

    If Morrison is as smart as mundo believes, he will have a diary clash when Trump invites him to the G7 in September. Although Morrison won’t be as forthright as Angela Merkel, who apparently told him to shove his G7 meeting up his fat arse.

  30. Just like Scrooter.
    Scrooter has ’em in spades.
    Just ask Albo.

    I like to stir the pot. Often. But jeebus MOFO X you need to try a different stew for a change and give us all a holiday FFS.

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