The Australian has published a set of geographic and demographic breakdowns compiled from multiple recent Newspoll results, once a regular quarterly feature of the pollster notable for its results at state level, but now greatly expanded as more elaborate methods are adopted in response to last year’s pollster failure. Where in the such breakdowns were limited to geography, gender and age, there are now also education (no tertiary, technical and university), household income, English or non-English speaker at home, religion (only Christian and no religion are provided, but they presumably have a small sample result for other religions).
Compared with a national result of 50-50, the state breakdowns show level pegging in New South Wales (1.8% swing to Labor), 55-45 to Labor in Victoria (1.9% to Labor), 56-44 to the Coalition in Queensland (2.4% to Labor), 55-45 ditto in Western Australia (0.6% swing to Labor, and 53-47 to Labor in South Australia (2.3%). These suggest statistically indistinguishable swings to Labor of 1.8% in New South Wales, 1.9% in Victoria, 2.4% in Queensland, 0.6% in Western Australia and 2.3% in South Australia. The primary votes are notably strong for the Greens in Queensland, up nearly three points from the election to 13%, and One Nation in Western Australia, who are on 9% after never having done better than 7% in the last term.
The age breakdowns are notable for the 62-38 lead to Labor among the 18-34 cohort, a differential quite a lot greater than that recorded by Newspoll in the previous term, which ranged from 4% to 8% compared with the present 12%. The gender gap — 52-48 to the Coalition among men and the reverse among women — is at levels not seen since the Tony Abbott prime ministership, whether due to genuine churn in voting intention or (more likely I think) a change in the pollster’s house effect.
Analysis of the education breakdowns is made easy by the fact that two-party is 50-50 for all three cohorts, with even the primary vote breakdowns recording little variation, other than university graduates being somewhat more disposed to the Greens and allergic to One Nation. As the table below illustrates, there are notable differences between these numbers and comparable findings for the Australian National University’s post-election Australian Election Study survey, which recorded a strong leftward lean among the university-educated compared with those without qualifications and, especially, those with non-tertiary qualifications.
For income, Newspoll reflects the Australian Election Study in finding the low-to-middle income cohort being Labor’s strongest, with a relative weakness among the low-income cohort presumably reflecting their lack of support in rural and regional areas. However, the distinctions are less marked in Newspoll, which credits the Coalition with 46% of the primary vote among the top household income cohort (in this case kicking in at $150,000) compared with 51% in the Australian Election Study, with Labor respectively at 34% and 32%. Differences were predictably pronounced according to language (51-49 to the Coalition among those speaking English only, 57-43 to Labor among those speaking a different language at home) and religion (58-42 to the Coalition among Christians, the reverse among the non-religious).
The results are combined from the last four Newspoll surveys, collectively conducted between March 11 and May 16, from a sample of 6032, with state sample sizes ranging from 472 (suggesting a 4.5% margin of error on the South Australian result) to 1905 (suggesting 2.2% in New South Wales.
guytaur says:
Monday, June 1, 2020 at 12:57 pm
I hope Bludgers have noted the wholesale embrace of the Trump rhetoric by the LNP.
——————————-
LOL where have you been because the reactionaries have been hero worshiping Trump since he was elected and have run a several of his themes then there is Morrison making decisions that mirror Trump’s decisions.
Ms Griff should join with Bandt and implement the Australian Greens policy on migration and population. Which is to hold a community debate on the topic.
Perhaps Ms Griff could set that Greens ball rolling after 30 years of stasis on the topic by doing a town hall on it?
Just a suggestion.
It’s a crowded field….
————–
Shooters fighting for ‘forgotten communities’ of Eden-Monaro
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6776647/shooters-fighting-for-forgotten-communities-of-eden-monaro/?cs=14264
The National Party is still in the process of pre-selecting its candidate.
So. Given what we know about the current circumstances, are the following ethical:
(a) violence against the police?
(b) property destruction for example by way of arson?
(c) looting?
Mexicanbeemer
What I find really annoying is they are bringing back mutual obligations at the start of the reopening. I feel that many casuals will contact their previous employer and without any help from a service provider return to employment. That our government then pays a fee for no work to these firms is wasteful.
Why couldn’t they wait till all restrictions are lifted and people know if their job has survived before restarting the mutual obligations, it just defies logic unless looked at through the lens of money for mates. I’m sure small business employers don’t need the added work that all these job applications will make for them whilst they are trying to regrow their business.
Why can’t our journalists ask relevant questions and expose these underhand tactics. The leaners at centre link aren’t those who can’t get a job its those who make money off them without lifting a finger.
boerwar @ #2346 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 2:10 pm
Pretty spectacular that policies which have never been implemented can be drivers of anything. Those dastardly Greens must be political masterminds of the highest order to get so much influence out of so little power. 🙂
meher baba @ #2351 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 2:18 pm
And there was no moral difference between an Allied soldier killing German soldiers and a German soldier killing Jews; all violence is equivalent, right? Meet the perpetrators of violence and oppression with violence, and you’re exactly as bad as what you fight against?
boerwar @ #2355 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 2:24 pm
No, no, and no. But they are understandable. And predictable, given the circumstances. Unlike, say, a police officer choking someone to death.
That’s the least ethical act of the bunch. And a greater betrayal, because the officer is entrusted with a greater power and responsibility.
Perhaps Albanese could set that Labor ball rolling after over 100 years of stasis on the topic by doing a town hall on it?
But wait, it would have to have a policy to do so.
GoldenSmaug: “The second the US Government uses the US Military to Fire on US Citizens will see the end of the Republic. Maybe not immediately but certainly within a (relatively) short period of time. ”
Hmm… not sure.
I note that some members of the American left are already expressing concerns that these events will prompt more suburban people to turn out and vote Republican on election day.
Conservative people feel very negative and fearful about demonstrations, riots, striking workers, etc.
meher baba @ #2350 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 12:18 pm
Well if they are terrorist, then there would be dozens of organisations on the Right that would qualify well before them.
Ms Griff will be stimulated to implement the Australian Greens policy on the community population and migration debate by the thought of the lives lost and the property damage in the electorate from the fires had there been twice as many people living in the electorate!
Plus, Ms Griff would be concerned about the impact of double the number of domestic cats on ecosystems that are already under terrible pressure from many human activities such as tourism, ecotourism cruise ship tourism, coastal development, the timber industry, the fishing industry, the pastoral industry, the dairy industry and related energy, road, water, sewage and waste disposal infrastructure. All of which would have to be doubled to meet the needs of double the population.
The SDA pops up…
History will judge Andrews on Belt and Road, warns union leader
https://www.theage.com.au/national/history-will-judge-andrews-on-belt-and-road-warns-union-leader-20200601-p54yd2.html
Pegasus @ #2357 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 2:27 pm
Gosh you just reminded Mundo of those Town Halls Bill did that worked out so well….Bill was really winning them over,….remember…..he was at his best in the town halls….those were the days….
boerwar @ #2221 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 2:24 pm
From our privileged viewing point, no.
Spend a lifetime in the shoes of the oppressed and marginalised then get back to me…
Assantdj
The problem with the media is that many journalist just accept the government’s description of how the system works because they have no experience of using it and they seem to not understand how government funds these outfits. The funding model is bizarre because the normal recruitment industry works on outcomes and the system itself is badly designed because if the government was serious about mutual obligation then it would allow the job seeker to have multiple providers which it doesn’t. But i keep coming back to the point that many people never deal with this system.
ar: “And there was no moral difference between an Allied soldier killing German soldiers and a German soldier killing Jews; all violence is equivalent, right? Meet the perpetrators of violence and oppression with violence, and you’re exactly as bad as what you fight against?”
Are the people Antifa attack truly “the perpetrators of violence and oppression”? A lot of their actions seem to involve violently closing down public forums and events organised by people with whom they disagree.
And the moral difference issue you raise is an interesting and complex one. It is my view that any military response available was justified in bringing down the profoundly immoral and inhumane Nazi and Japanese regimes (with the latter’s treatment of conquered peoples, particularly the Chinese, on a par with, or arguably even worse than the Nazi treatment of Jewish people).
However, you will find many liberal and left-oriented writers today who want to suggest that the firebombing of Dresden and the nuclear attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki were war crimes.
Usually our government waits till Friday to take out the trash, someone on insiders even joked they wondered what this weeks instalment would be. With the amount of attention the media is giving to America at the moment we could have a trash delivery every day this week.
https://www.start.umd.edu/pubs/START_IdeologicalMotivationsOfTerrorismInUS_Nov2017.pdf
Rex Douglas: “Spend a lifetime in the shoes of the oppressed and marginalised then get back to me…”
Have you ever been in a riot? I have lived through riots in India. I have seen and heard tell of things that I will never be able to erase from my mind.
What happens when uncontrollable rioting breaks out anywhere is that the biggest, strongest males take charge of the situation and start to doing what they wish with total impunity: smashing, burning, robbing, raping, settling old scores with enemies, etc. It’s not an inspirational rising up of the oppressed masses to the tune of Kumbaya: it’s a lawless, Darwinian anarchy.
I trust that Ms Griff understands soil science and the links between soil and biodiversity.
It is quite arcane.
Just to give you an idea, here is a simple exercise.
Go out into the bush.
Pick up a handful of dirt.
Just a handful.
Lift your head and count all the species that you can see: the vascular and non vascular plants. The birds, the reptiles, the mammals, all the insects all the other arthropods.
What you have in your hand has ten times as many species. When it comes to biodiversity, soil sustainability is critical.
The rate of soil formation is around a tablespoon per hectare per year.
Now, many have pointed out that no Australian farming techniques deliver on soil sustainability. They ALL use soil faster than it is being formed.
But think about this. The amount of soil lost during the construction of a single house in the urbs runs to the equivalent of many, many centuries of soil formation.
No doubt Ms Griff will be onto this because, since 1778, the electorate of Eden Monaro has already lost many, many millenia worth of soil formation outputs.
Doubling the Eden Monaro population will just speed up this discrepancy between soil loss and soil formation.
I am sure that Ms Griff will, on behalf of the Greens, put soil sustainability high on her list of priorities and will start a community debate on this, as per the Australian Greens policy.
It’s hard to watch the US riots from Australia and understand the underlying tensions. The inequality within that society is amazing. Seeing some day to day events where a person, going about their lives, is disrupted simply because they have a different skin colour is amazing.
Prior to this blow up we had a black man bird watching in central park having the cops called on him for no apparent reason other than daring to ask that a dog be leashed (in an area where the dog is supposed to be leashed).
A delivery driver, in a delivery truck, wearing a uniform being stopped, parked in and interrogated by a member of the gated community he was delivering to for no reason other than because he was black.
A black man in a park on his day off being hassled by the police simply for being there.
Given what Rio Tinto did last week and the 500 deaths in custody since the royal commission we can’t say we’re a great deal better in a lot of respects (and growing up in the 60/70’s I know we were a racist bunch, a bit better now but perhaps not as much as we should be).
I can understand why there are riots in the US (with the inequality and racism), I can understand the looting (a lot of people don’t eat from one day to the next, any opportunity is worth taking if it arises when you are that destitute), I can understand the cops being targeted (the US don’t have police services, they have militaries, armed and trained for military actions, no Cop needs automatic weapons or tanks, the minute they do they are oppressing rather than policing).
I can understand the politics, our system is a shadow of theirs but since Howard we have been getting closer. The “Left” or “Right” these days seems to be simply someone with an opposing view to you.
The only thing stopping Civil War is lack of organised and coordinated sides and that will happen if/when the real shooting starts. Once we’ve got organised sides I cry for the outcome as what happens in the US may well spread.
It seems that at least one poster thinks that attacking police, burning down buildings and looting other people’s belongings are all ethical activities.
meher baba @ #2235 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 2:43 pm
Yep, it’s a terrible thing.
As MB points out, discussing a riot in principle, and being in a riot are two different life experiences.
I was in a riot once. It involved a drunken mob. The way it evolved involved us risking out lives and the lives our kids. who were toddlers at the time, to protect two young girls from pack rape.
As MB points out, once a riot gets going, all social norms get lost.
boerwar
If you keep kicking someone please do not be surprised if one day they kick you back rather than just write a stern letter to the editor like all ‘decent civilised people’ do .
We must bear witness to black deaths in our own country
Australia is outraged at police brutality in the US, but apathetic to the lives of black people in their own country.
https://amymcquire.substack.com/p/we-must-bear-witness-to-black-deaths?fbclid=IwAR04Z2DO575mDlk6Y38VSjig649bTz7NFfexD1dYQ6Ef8J-UTMX3SeNO3Lo
If a society ultimately loses faith in Government that sees them give up on that Governments rule of law, that’s failed political leadership at its worst.
Peg
Most people wouldn’t know about it because it receives little to no media coverage. I can’t remember the last time the FTA news reported on it and that is where most people get their news from.
‘Bulging valleys’: Call for state to halt catchment coal mining
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/bulging-valleys-call-for-state-to-halt-catchment-coal-mining-20200529-p54xrw.html
Has NSW Labor said anything one way or the other about this or is it on board with Gladys Berejiklian?
While everyone is banging on about the “violence” of the protesters they might like to remember the social,political and economic violence being inflicted on the poor . That kills far more and blights far more than anything the “mob’ has been inflicting.
It makes you reflect on our National Cabinets social welfare initiatives after the shutdown and how it kept our society relatively calm.
MB
As the article pointed out. Hers was not the only death covered in the article.
Peg
That is a blog post and not a mainstream media outlet. The FTA’s tends to skim through stories and what happens in the US gets more attention than things that happen in our own region.
And, as the mayor of Atlanta said, people stop talking about the injustices that led to it and start talking about the riots instead. The enduring legacy may not be of the innocent black man murdered by a police officer but of black people rioting.
Some of KillerMikes speech…
guytaur says:
Monday, June 1, 2020 at 1:54 pm
Rex
It looks like FredNK is on the side of Trump and the fascists. That’s how far his partisanship will take him or her.
Getting close guytaur; come on out say it “Labor should support the Greens and support the violence”. It’s not much further than gluing yourself t the road, you know you want to do it. Be first, don’t let horsey link to someone else saying it first.
GoldenSmaug says:
Monday, June 1, 2020 at 2:10 pm
The second the US Government uses the US Military to Fire on US Citizens will see the end of the Republic. Maybe not immediately but certainly within a (relatively) short period of time.
————
I recall The US State comfortably survived shooting quite a few WHITE students at Kent State University.
MB
It appeared in The Canberra Times….the link I provided came from Crikey Worm.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6775418/we-must-bear-witness-to-black-deaths-in-our-own-country/
poor frednk, Resorting to childish name-calling.
Peg
The Canberra Times is not the FTA nightly news and Canberra is one place that i would expect such stories to be covered. The ABC does report on such stories but the likes of channel 7 and channel 9 rarely do.
BW keeps banging on about the number of whites versus blacks killed by police shootings in the US. without the context of….
U.S. Police Shootings: Blacks Disproportionately Affected
https://www.statista.com/chart/21857/people-killed-in-police-shootings-in-the-us/
“>A Washington Post analysis has found that black Americans are disproportionately affected by police violence. The data focuses specifically on police shootings and it mainly relies on police reports, news accounts and social media postings. Since the start of 2015, 4,728 people across the country have died in police shootings and approximately half – 2,385 – were white. Out of the remainder, 1,252 were black, 877 were Hispanic and 214 were from other racial groups. The data looks different as a share of the population, however. Black Americans account for less than 13 percent of the population but they are shot and killed by the police at a rate that’s over twice as high as for white Americans.”
MB
Factiva Database covers:
National, international and regional newspapers–current content and archives (e.g., The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Times, The Wall Street Journal, El Pais, The Financial Times, The Guardian, etc.)
Magazines, journals and trade publications (e.g., Forbes, Newsweek , etc.)
Newswires (e.g., AFP, Reuters, Dow Jones, etc.)
TV or radio podcasts (e.g., BBC, CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox , etc.)
Major news and business information websites, blogs and message boards
Company reports
Photo agencies (e.g., Reuters, Knight Ridder, etc.)
Materials on the EUR-Lex website, giving access to the law of the European Union
https://proquest.libguides.com/factiva
That guy gets it. You don’t have to condone the rioting. But the thing to condemn is what kicked it all off; four police officers did an extrajudicial killing of a helpless black man. All they needed was a bit of rope and you could call it a lynching.
Three of the four culprits remain at large (albeit unemployed).
Peg
I am talking about what is shown on channel 7 and channel 9’s nightly news bulletins.
‘a r says:
Monday, June 1, 2020 at 2:27 pm
boerwar @ #2346 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 2:10 pm
The Greens involvement in the Extinction Rebellion is a bit rich, given that their population and migration policies are significant drivers of Australian extinctions.
Pretty spectacular that policies which have never been implemented can be drivers of anything. ‘
The Australian Greens for 30 years have had a policy of holding a community debate on population and migration. They have not held that debate.
The notion that the doubling of population and the consequences in terms of speeding up the Anthropocene Extinction Event have nothing to do with the Greens is interesting.
The Greens have hoovered up the environment vote. If they can’t do anything useful with that vote then they should just disband as being counterproductive for the environment.
Poroti
“Now all they need to do is sort out that slack arse malingerer who is their only active case !”
From the public data you can figure out he’s in his 50s and he left hospital a few days ago.. so presumably he’s well on the mend 🙂
Pegasus @3:22
“Other” is seriously under-represented aint it?
Tried to organize a test before we go and visit our parents. Only interested if your a teacher or health worker if you have no symptoms.
Pegasus @ #2353 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 12:24 pm
From a population at the last census of 776 people, Cobargo is certainly fielding a large number of candidates.
I detest with all of my being Morrison’s lack of ownership on every topic then followed by his patronising lecturing
Can Trump flip Minnesota?
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/31/george-floyd-death-minnesota-political-landscape-290082
This is your IPA speaking. The good little puppets repeat the same rubbish every time. And these are your “research fellows”. 😆