Newspoll breakdowns broken down

Newspoll offers a deep dive into its recent polling data, offering unprecedented detail on voting intention by income, education, language and religion, along with more familiar breakdowns by state.

The Australian has published a set of geographic and demographic breakdowns compiled from multiple recent Newspoll results, once a regular quarterly feature of the pollster notable for its results at state level, but now greatly expanded as more elaborate methods are adopted in response to last year’s pollster failure. Where in the such breakdowns were limited to geography, gender and age, there are now also education (no tertiary, technical and university), household income, English or non-English speaker at home, religion (only Christian and no religion are provided, but they presumably have a small sample result for other religions).

Compared with a national result of 50-50, the state breakdowns show level pegging in New South Wales (1.8% swing to Labor), 55-45 to Labor in Victoria (1.9% to Labor), 56-44 to the Coalition in Queensland (2.4% to Labor), 55-45 ditto in Western Australia (0.6% swing to Labor, and 53-47 to Labor in South Australia (2.3%). These suggest statistically indistinguishable swings to Labor of 1.8% in New South Wales, 1.9% in Victoria, 2.4% in Queensland, 0.6% in Western Australia and 2.3% in South Australia. The primary votes are notably strong for the Greens in Queensland, up nearly three points from the election to 13%, and One Nation in Western Australia, who are on 9% after never having done better than 7% in the last term.

The age breakdowns are notable for the 62-38 lead to Labor among the 18-34 cohort, a differential quite a lot greater than that recorded by Newspoll in the previous term, which ranged from 4% to 8% compared with the present 12%. The gender gap — 52-48 to the Coalition among men and the reverse among women — is at levels not seen since the Tony Abbott prime ministership, whether due to genuine churn in voting intention or (more likely I think) a change in the pollster’s house effect.

Analysis of the education breakdowns is made easy by the fact that two-party is 50-50 for all three cohorts, with even the primary vote breakdowns recording little variation, other than university graduates being somewhat more disposed to the Greens and allergic to One Nation. As the table below illustrates, there are notable differences between these numbers and comparable findings for the Australian National University’s post-election Australian Election Study survey, which recorded a strong leftward lean among the university-educated compared with those without qualifications and, especially, those with non-tertiary qualifications.

For income, Newspoll reflects the Australian Election Study in finding the low-to-middle income cohort being Labor’s strongest, with a relative weakness among the low-income cohort presumably reflecting their lack of support in rural and regional areas. However, the distinctions are less marked in Newspoll, which credits the Coalition with 46% of the primary vote among the top household income cohort (in this case kicking in at $150,000) compared with 51% in the Australian Election Study, with Labor respectively at 34% and 32%. Differences were predictably pronounced according to language (51-49 to the Coalition among those speaking English only, 57-43 to Labor among those speaking a different language at home) and religion (58-42 to the Coalition among Christians, the reverse among the non-religious).

The results are combined from the last four Newspoll surveys, collectively conducted between March 11 and May 16, from a sample of 6032, with state sample sizes ranging from 472 (suggesting a 4.5% margin of error on the South Australian result) to 1905 (suggesting 2.2% in New South Wales.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,634 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns broken down”

  1. Then, senses dazed and looking for love – where did they leave it – or resentment, they might go out and join a rabble. Such a durable thing, violence.

    People do crazy things in a crowd/mob. To belong. To feel safe. To feel powerful. To feel important. The odd thing about it, in obtaining this power, the individual cedes almost everything to it. They succumb totally to the mob. In becoming part of a large powerful unit, they themselves become a nobody. Some like to call it ‘agency’. In order to gain agency, they lose it.

    The Cronulla riots come to mind.

  2. Confessions @ #2294 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 12:20 pm

    And he hides!

    Inside the White House, the mood was bristling with tension. Hundreds of protesters were gathering outside the gates, shouting curses at President Trump and in some cases throwing bricks and bottles. Nervous for his safety, Secret Service agents abruptly rushed the president to the underground bunker used in the past during terrorist attacks.

    The scene on Friday night, described by a person with firsthand knowledge, added to the sense of unease at the White House as demonstrations spread after the brutal death of a black man in police custody under a white officer’s knee. While in the end officials said they were never really in danger, Mr. Trump and his family have been rattled by protests that turned violent three nights in a row near the Executive Mansion.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/31/us/politics/trump-protests-george-floyd.html?smid=tw-share

    #BunkerBitch

  3. A lot of those who prefer Biden but indicated they will not vote are registered voters. They may be briefly’s Libbylibkins. They may be traditional Republicans (if The Lincoln Project get to them this might blow out the result into the humiliation level). Or there is something not quite right with the poll.

  4. Continuo @ #2292 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 12:18 pm

    The violence in the US – the rage, the anguish, the deaths, the arrests, the pillaging – are from the same cloth as Trump.

    When a police officer chokes one of Trump’s family members to death in the street, maybe. Until that happens, no.

    Unlike Trump, the rioters actually have legitimate cause for grievance. Their actions may be wrong, their basis for taking them is not. Trump on the other hand is wrong on both counts.

  5. I note that none of the media are questioning the massive financial windfall for the service providers associated with Centrelink. They have at least noted that some companies have found ways to rort the Jobkeeper payment and IF this program is every properly scrutinised I believe it would show widespread, industrial size rorting.

  6. Norman Swan on ABC warning that there is a high chance of a false negative test, so if a person is sure they have the virus, they should get tested again a few days later.

  7. There’s a difference between terrorism and mob violence. Terrorism is supposedly externally sponsored and directed, is purposeful and has a political goal. The method chosen is the use of violence to inspire fear – to exploit violence to ‘terrorise’ its targets.

    If Dutton cannot tell the difference between demonstration/protest/rampage and terrorism why is he in charge of counter-terrorism in Australia?

  8. Simon Katich

    They may be briefly’s Libbylibkins. They may be traditional Republicans (if The Lincoln Project get to them this might blow out the result into the humiliation level). Or there is something not quite right with the poll.

    Or they really do like ” whale skin hubcaps and all leather cow interior and big brown baby seal eyes for headlights. “

  9. So typical of privileged white folk to tell oppressed people how to act.

    Decades of poor leadership leads to civil unrest where words no longer matter.

  10. C@t
    Ferdinand I, Emperor of Austria was mentally disabled but is famous for one thing.

    When the protestors of the 1848 revolution started climbing the gates of the Schonnbrunn Palace, his advisers started burning the papers and planning for an escape of the Royal family to Innsbruck. In the middle of the chaos he allegedly said “Ja, dürfen’s denn des?” “Are they allowed to do that?”

    I suspect Trump may have a similar loss of contact with reality

  11. I hope Bludgers have noted the wholesale embrace of the Trump rhetoric by the LNP.

    Anti Fascist groups are now apparently terrorists. That will be news to the remaining veterans from World War 2 alive today.

  12. poroti, well, I’m just a regular Joe with a regular job, I’m your average white(brownish) suburbanite slob. I like football and Masterchef and books about war. I’ve got an pretty nice house with a nice concrete floor. My wife and my job, my kids and my Honda Jazz. My feet on my table, and a Cuban cigar.

    And when that just ain’t enough to keep a man like me interested, I pull out the top shelf whiskey, chainsaw a dead tree, or post some shit on pollbludger. I dont need to be a compete arsehole.

  13. Matthew Knott
    @KnottMatthew
    · 13m
    The headquarters of America’s peak union body is on fire

    I don’t think it’s even possible to know who’s doing what any more.

  14. Lizzie

    It’s not called chaos for nothing.

    That said remember the union elite are for private health care. The workers are for Sanders Medicare for All. What we know as UniversalHealthcare.

    For US citizens. Lose your job lose your healthcare. We know 40 million have lost jobs and thus healthcare.

  15. Oakeshott Country @ #2311 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 12:54 pm

    C@t
    Ferdinand I, Emperor of Austria was mentally disabled but is famous for one thing.

    When the protestors of the 1848 revolution started climbing the gates of the Schonnbrunn Palace, his advisers started burning the papers and planning for an escape of the Royal family to Innsbruck he allegedly said “Ja, dürfen’s denn des?” “Are they allowed to do that?”

    I suspect Trump may have a similar loss of contact with reality

    In all honesty I suspect he may suffer from, and I don’t know the exact medical term for it, but Delusional Thinking is the closest I can come to it. Though his all time favourite book is ‘The Power of Positive Thinking’ by Norman Vincent Peale. It appears to have combined in the crucible of his mind with the force of his delusions to create the momentum and the motivation to get him where he is today. However, he just can’t cope with something beyond his control and forward planning, like the Coronavirus and the havoc it wreaks. Though it has been interesting to watch how he has dealt with it and the plans he has put in place to control the narrative around it.

  16. Excellent point

    Davey D
    @mrdaveyd
    ·
    21h
    I gotta be honest the worst looting I’ve ever seen take place happened a few weeks ago when corporations collected over 500 billion dollars in stimulus money while everyone else was left with a $1200 dollar check and having to decide if they pay for food or rent..

  17. guytaur says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 12:57 pm
    I hope Bludgers have noted the wholesale embrace of the Trump rhetoric by the LNP.

    This is not new. The LibNats rejoiced when Trump was elected. In the ‘also not new’ department, the Splitters ran interference for Trump in 2016 in the same way as they run interference for the LibNats in this country. They’re riding shotgun for Trump again now, even in the midst of the riots. The LibKin here are doing the same thing, tragedy notwithstanding.

  18. RE: terrorists. Dutton’s just getting the gov’s message out before the shooting starts. Can’t have our good maaaaates the USofA gunning down civilians protesting.

  19. Victoria @ #2187 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 1:05 pm

    Excellent point

    Davey D
    @mrdaveyd
    ·
    21h
    I gotta be honest the worst looting I’ve ever seen take place happened a few weeks ago when corporations collected over 500 billion dollars in stimulus money while everyone else was left with a $1200 dollar check and having to decide if they pay for food or rent..

    That’s the bottom line.

    Words don’t fix oppression and inequality. Actions will.


  20. guytaur says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 12:57 pm

    I hope Bludgers have noted the wholesale embrace of the Trump rhetoric by the LNP.

    Yes and I have noticed the greens have embraced the violence. Who will be the first Green wanker condemning Labor for not following the Greens down their little rabbit hole.

  21. mikehilliard

    RE: terrorists. Dutton’s just getting the gov’s message out before the shooting starts. Can’t have our good maaaaates the USofA gunning down civilians protesting.

    Why not, ’tis as Mercan as apple pie. Although these days they are a bit soft with civilians. Back in the good ol’ days…

    …..attacked a tent colony of 1,200 striking coal miners and their families in Ludlow, Colorado, on April 20, 1914,, with the National Guard using machine guns to fire into the colony. Approximately 21 people, including miners’ wives and children, were killed. The chief owner of the mine, John D. Rockefeller, Jr., was widely excoriated for having orchestrated the massacre.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludlow_Massacre

  22. frednk @ #2193 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 1:12 pm


    guytaur says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 12:57 pm

    I hope Bludgers have noted the wholesale embrace of the Trump rhetoric by the LNP.

    Yes and I have noticed the greens have embraced the violence. Who will be the first Green wanker condemning Labor for not following the Greens down their little rabbit hole.

    Is that a serious comment ?

  23. Greens Eden Monaro announce Cathy Griff as candidate for up coming by election
    via FB

    The Greens in Eden-Monaro have great pleasure in announcing that Cathy Griff is our Greens candidate in the forthcoming by-election (July 4).

    Cathy has been a Bega Valley councillor since 2016 and with a Master’s degree in Communications, Cathy has taught in Bougainville PNG for Australian Volunteers Abroad and worked in policy, strategy and research roles for a number of federal agencies including Screen Australia.

    “It is a critical time to change course as a community by confronting climate change as the existential challenge of our time. Climate inaction from other parties, despite massive drought, fires, and flood, has propelled me to this candidacy.

    “Tablelands, foothills and coastal communities in Eden-Monaro are still reeling from the combined impacts of the bushfires, sustained drought and the pandemic. Now a growing chorus of people are demanding immediate action on climate change and the creation of a fairer society.

  24. poroti

    Why not, ’tis as Mercan as apple pie. Although these days they are a bit soft with civilians. Back in the good ol’ days…

    No mobile phone footage back then either. 😉

  25. Rex

    It looks like FredNK is on the side of Trump and the fascists. That’s how far his partisanship will take him or her.

  26. New York Mayor Bill de Blasio’s daughter, Chiara, was among the hundreds of protesters arrested in the city Saturday after failing to disperse when ordered by police, law enforcement sources told The Washington Post.

    Chiara, 25, was in a group of about 100 protesters who were allegedly throwing “unknown objects” at police officers near 12th Street and Broadway in Lower Manhattan around 10:30 p.m. When police ordered the group to clear the roadway, she was among those who refused, leading to a citation on charges of unlawful assembly in lieu of detention.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/31/george-floyd-protests-live-updates/#link-LDQXFNHZZJCOTN3MQO3RUUZP24

  27. In Australia state and federal governments are right on board with criminalising climate change protesters as they seek to stifle civil dissent through legislative means. It’s a slippery slope.
    ——-

    Climate crackdown: Australia throws rule book at activists

    Authorities in Queensland and Tasmania respond to public anger over climate with laws to curb protest and dissent.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/12/australia-state-governments-tough-climate-protesters-191216040814607.html

    “Climate activist Greg Rolles does not enjoy breaking the law, but he feels like there is no other option.

    “Sometimes you’ve got to put the common good of all people ahead of your own needs and interests,” Rolles told Al Jazeera. “I don’t want to be bullied by the media or deal with police, but I also don’t want to leave the next generation with the burden of a burning home.”

    Rolles, 37, is a member of Christian Climate Action Australia.
    :::
    But as climate protests become widespread, it is not just fines with which activists are being threatened.
    :::
    The magistrate in Rolles’s case said that Rolles could have used other methods to make his views heard, such as speaking to his local MP or taking part in a lawful protest. Rolles said these suggestions were inadequate.

    “This is a climate emergency, a major crisis our political leaders are ignoring,” he told Al Jazeera. “We only have one planet home and it’s burning… If we don’t use non-violent protest, we won’t get in the way. History shows this.”

    Matt McDonald, an associate professor at the University of Queensland and an expert in climate politics, agrees that protests are key to changing government policy on issues such as climate change.
    :::
    Nicole Rogers from the School of Law and Justice at Southern Cross University believes that the definition of what constitutes “lawful” behaviour may even begin to change as climate protests become more widespread.
    :::
    Activist Rolles says the threat of jail is not enough to stop him and others from pushing for climate action and that as a Christian, he believes it is his moral, civil, and spiritual duty to act. Since November last year, he has been arrested on two additional occasions.

    “It’s either stand up now and do civil disobedience, or face a future of a living hell,” Rolles said. “I don’t want to face punishment, I don’t want to face jail or fines, but I’m more scared for the next generation.”

    “We have so many freedoms in Australia because our ancestors fought for them,” he added. “If we don’t fight hard and give everything we’ve got, we will lose all these privileges in the climate crisis.”

    O’Connor of the Tasmanian Greens agrees.

    “All across Australia, hundreds of thousands are taking to the streets to protect the climate,” she said. “Instead of looking at its own policies on the environment, the government’s response is designed to make the problem go away by locking it up.

    “People don’t want to go to jail, but you cannot jail your way out of the climate crisis.”
    ——

    Extinction Rebellion: ‘terror threat’ is a wake-up call for how the state treats environmental activism

    https://theconversation.com/extinction-rebellion-terror-threat-is-a-wake-up-call-for-how-the-state-treats-environmental-activism-129804

    Extinction Rebellion was once criticised by other activists for “love bombing the cops”, but now it has found itself labelled a terror threat. In a guide sent to teachers by counter-terrorism police, the non-violent group’s logo and activities were described to help them spot students who may be involved.

    The guide – which includes neo-Nazi and Islamist terror groups – has since been withdrawn and Extinction Rebellion may yet sue, but this extreme response should come as no surprise to anyone who has been paying attention to how states are treating environmental protest.

  28. I trust that Griff will lead a community debate on population and migration policy, as per the Australian Greens official policy.
    It would be good if she does.

  29. The second the US Government uses the US Military to Fire on US Citizens will see the end of the Republic. Maybe not immediately but certainly within a (relatively) short period of time. The idea that the Chinese, who are a one party brutal state that shoots it’s own citizens are somehow different or worse than the US if it starts using it’s military to shoot citizens will be a hard sell.
    Hopefully Trump’s minders will stop this but all it will take is one nutjob MAGA group with automatic weapons and it will go to hell in a handbasket in a very short period of time (not that it isn’t almost there already).

  30. The Greens involvement in the Extinction Rebellion is a bit rich, given that their population and migration policies are significant drivers of Australian extinctions.

  31. Assantdj says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 12:48 pm

    I note that none of the media are questioning the massive financial windfall for the service providers associated with Centrelink. They have at least noted that some companies have found ways to rort the Jobkeeper payment and IF this program is every properly scrutinised I believe it would show widespread, industrial size rorting.
    —————————-
    That is because many people do not understand how the government manages the unemployed or how this system is funded but this comes back to what i said to you the other day most people do not find their jobs from the centrelink system.

  32. ar: “Unlike Trump, the rioters actually have legitimate cause for grievance. Their actions may be wrong, their basis for taking them is not. Trump on the other hand is wrong on both counts.”

    Leaving Trump to one side: people who use the cover of a mass protest to loot and burn are just common criminals who have no legitimate cause for grievance about anything. Regardless of their political complexion – far left, far right, centre left, centre right – governments around the world have generally adopted a shoot on sight policy towards such people.

    Right now, in the interests of not inflaming things further, the US authorities are not adopting such a heavy-handed response: something they learned from the Rodney King riots and a number of similar events in the past.

  33. guytaur: “Anti Fascist groups are now apparently terrorists. That will be news to the remaining veterans from World War 2 alive today.”

    If you are talking about Antifa, then I too think they are terrorists. It’s difficult to perceive people who carry out violent acts with the protection of disguise as being in any way benign.

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