Newspoll breakdowns broken down

Newspoll offers a deep dive into its recent polling data, offering unprecedented detail on voting intention by income, education, language and religion, along with more familiar breakdowns by state.

The Australian has published a set of geographic and demographic breakdowns compiled from multiple recent Newspoll results, once a regular quarterly feature of the pollster notable for its results at state level, but now greatly expanded as more elaborate methods are adopted in response to last year’s pollster failure. Where in the such breakdowns were limited to geography, gender and age, there are now also education (no tertiary, technical and university), household income, English or non-English speaker at home, religion (only Christian and no religion are provided, but they presumably have a small sample result for other religions).

Compared with a national result of 50-50, the state breakdowns show level pegging in New South Wales (1.8% swing to Labor), 55-45 to Labor in Victoria (1.9% to Labor), 56-44 to the Coalition in Queensland (2.4% to Labor), 55-45 ditto in Western Australia (0.6% swing to Labor, and 53-47 to Labor in South Australia (2.3%). These suggest statistically indistinguishable swings to Labor of 1.8% in New South Wales, 1.9% in Victoria, 2.4% in Queensland, 0.6% in Western Australia and 2.3% in South Australia. The primary votes are notably strong for the Greens in Queensland, up nearly three points from the election to 13%, and One Nation in Western Australia, who are on 9% after never having done better than 7% in the last term.

The age breakdowns are notable for the 62-38 lead to Labor among the 18-34 cohort, a differential quite a lot greater than that recorded by Newspoll in the previous term, which ranged from 4% to 8% compared with the present 12%. The gender gap — 52-48 to the Coalition among men and the reverse among women — is at levels not seen since the Tony Abbott prime ministership, whether due to genuine churn in voting intention or (more likely I think) a change in the pollster’s house effect.

Analysis of the education breakdowns is made easy by the fact that two-party is 50-50 for all three cohorts, with even the primary vote breakdowns recording little variation, other than university graduates being somewhat more disposed to the Greens and allergic to One Nation. As the table below illustrates, there are notable differences between these numbers and comparable findings for the Australian National University’s post-election Australian Election Study survey, which recorded a strong leftward lean among the university-educated compared with those without qualifications and, especially, those with non-tertiary qualifications.

For income, Newspoll reflects the Australian Election Study in finding the low-to-middle income cohort being Labor’s strongest, with a relative weakness among the low-income cohort presumably reflecting their lack of support in rural and regional areas. However, the distinctions are less marked in Newspoll, which credits the Coalition with 46% of the primary vote among the top household income cohort (in this case kicking in at $150,000) compared with 51% in the Australian Election Study, with Labor respectively at 34% and 32%. Differences were predictably pronounced according to language (51-49 to the Coalition among those speaking English only, 57-43 to Labor among those speaking a different language at home) and religion (58-42 to the Coalition among Christians, the reverse among the non-religious).

The results are combined from the last four Newspoll surveys, collectively conducted between March 11 and May 16, from a sample of 6032, with state sample sizes ranging from 472 (suggesting a 4.5% margin of error on the South Australian result) to 1905 (suggesting 2.2% in New South Wales.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,634 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns broken down”

  1. New Zealand now at 10 days in a row with zero.

    With every day that passes, the probability of there still existing a hidden carrier gets even lower.

  2. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #2241 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 11:02 am

    sprocket_ @ #2236 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 9:00 am

    I see mundo still at the shallow end of the pool, wanting today’s win inside the beltway.

    Why not venture down to the deep end? You might find something else, like ‘rope-a-dope’.

    But he hasn’t got any floaties!

    Mundo has scuba gear and can see all of your legs from below going ten to the dozen….quite entertaining…..pretty sure Bunghole has got some nasty tinea there…


  3. guytaur says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 11:11 am

    FredNK

    I note you call Biden a Right Wing Extremist as you assume I am a Green person.

    I was actually referring to the nonsense being tweeted by Richard Di Natale, in full support of the violence being unleashed by the right wing extremists, but feel free to be insulted.

  4. Pegasus says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 10:57 am
    Greens Mehreen Faruqi on twitter

    “A reminder for all of us in the Green movement: there can be no social or environmental justice without racial justice.”
    —————————————-

    Greens Richard Di Natale on twitter

    “Sending strength and solidarity to those protesting racism and systematic oppression in the US.

    While sending our support overseas, those of us in Australia must also reflect on the situation at home

    The day RDN stops campaigning for the re-election of Tory governments is the day he might be taken seriously on matters of discrimination and racial justice. He is freeloading on the tragedies in the US. Nothing has changed in LibKin Garden.

  5. Sheoakbloke
    @Sheoakbloke1
    ·
    3m
    #ScottyFromMarketing on #ABCNews spruiking jobs created with Rail partnership with Gladys B’s government as infrastructure projects we need to get the economy back on its feet. Remember when Gladys bought those Korean trains and they didn’t fit in Australian tunnels?

    Refers to Gladys as one of his Nat Cab – got to keep up the spin.

  6. guytaur says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 10:33 am
    Its also notable that the Greens have adopted the Green New Deal.

    The most notable thing is that by adopting it, the LibKin have made sure it will never be enacted. Green policy = kiss of political death.

  7. ‘lizzie says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 10:18 am

    boerwar

    Dogs (dingos) have been in Oz for a long time but did cats only come with the ships from Europe (as ratcatchers)?’

    Ships cats took to land quite well. Latest research is that cats kill around 230 million birds in Australia every year.

    I am sure that Bandt will take this into account when he launches the Greens’ Community Debate on Population and Migration.

    In particular Bandt will, I am sure, challenge Greens supporters to bite the politically unpalatable bull by the horns when considering that doubling the population will double the number of pets and will, beyond any shadow of doubt, speed up Australia’s already grossly disproportionate contribution to the Anthropocene Extinction.

    Over to you Adam. Your moment has come!

  8. guytaur: “Its not the property damage that is important. Its lives and oppression.”

    Please feel free to explain how people stealing stuff from business premises of Indian migrants and then burning them to the ground is going to be of any help in furthering the case against Chauvin and his pals.

  9. Briefly

    The fact you oppose it shows how good it is.

    The fact you oppose the solution a Democratic Candidate for President has embraced just because its got the word Green says everything about you and nothing about the Greens.

  10. baba

    I posted the local view.

    See the LA Times restaurant owner article.

    See Trevor Noah of the Daily Show.

    Stop importing white supremacist arguments to discredit the righteous rage of black people.

  11. Guytaur….who says I oppose the contents of the so-called Green New Deal? I’ve never said that. I support a lot of the measures.

    My point is that because it has been adopted by the LibKin here, it will never be enacted. The LibKin strategy entails self-defeat. They are the Party of Lost Causes, Futile Ultimatums, Hostile Intentions and Final Splits.

    Their adoption of issues means they are lost forever. This is one of the basic rules these days in Australian politics. They use placards like GND to attack Labor. This helps the LibNats. The LibNats win. The LibKin get to recycle/reuse/repurpose their placards. That’s what we have. Placard Games.

  12. Continuo says:

    Their adoption of issues means they are lost forever.
    ___________
    Just like when The Greens were the only party to support Same Sex Marriage…oh wait…..

  13. Briefly

    You oppose the solution. You keep saying the Greens are Thatcherite for having the same solution as a Democratic Candidate for President.

    You keep saying it will fail because its Greens that are promoting it.

    In other words you are doing the circus not the substance. You don’t care about policy. You care about show and will oppose substance for appearances sake.

  14. Prior to entering parliament, Di Natale was a general practitioner and public health specialist. He worked in Aboriginal health in the Northern Territory, on HIV prevention in India and in the drug and alcohol sector.

    He has integrity, authenticity and commitment to change in spades.

  15. Guytaur, the LibKin are Thatcherite in the sense that they are willing – nay, ever-so-keen – to exploit working people in a political sense. They have politically exploited coal workers in the scrub to advance their credentials in their urban citadels. Fuck the Greens. They are just like Thatcher. They use working people. They do not trust working people to hold and exercise power. They are Tories in green tee-shirts. Fuck them.

  16. Morrison: Income-averaging has been practised by Labor and Liberal govs for a long time and that is the principle at the heart of this.

    (Getting snappy with journos)

  17. Josh Taylor
    @joshgnosis
    ·
    1m
    PM indicating an apology for robodebt might come later, but is trying to shift the language to make it about the income averaging not the automation part the Coalition brought in (he’s technically correct but it was the automation that led to the mass false debts)

  18. C

    So, I guess you eschew the contradictory view of BW who reckons the Greens should be making the running on starting a community debate on the nexus between population, immigration and environmental sustainability?

    He reckons both major parties have no idea what sustainability means.

    If I understand what you are saying, if the Greens run on sustainability, AGW, or just about any issue, then we are “fucked”?

  19. Briefly

    Nope. You are wrong. Thats why you look so whacky to many people.

    You use your prejudicial view to dismiss substance.

    Its a common failure of Labor about the Greens. Like scapegoating the Greens for having a convoy and losing an election. A convoy that would have had no impact if Labor had been for or against Adani on Labor’s vote. Labor’s position would have been clear.

    Just as when climate change is brought up and the the Greens are mentioned Labor people keep going to legislation that failed to pretend they did not fail to prosecute the case of the Market Based Carbon Price.

    This all in an excuse to abandon strong environmentalist policy in favour of coal.

  20. Pegasus says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 11:39 am

    Di Natale….has…commitment to change in spades.

    And this accounts for his long service in aid of the re-election of LibNat governments.

    He is a LibKin Fraud who does not trust working people and has never supported them.

  21. “(Getting snappy with journos)”

    ***

    He will be extra snappy this week after the Sharks lost on the weekend. He always is when they lose.

  22. Peg, ‘contradictory view of BW who reckons the Greens should be making the running on starting a community debate on the nexus between population, immigration and environmental sustainability?’

    I don’t think it is BW that is ‘making a running on starting a community debate’, I thought that was Adam’s idea?

  23. Pegasus says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 11:44 am
    C

    So, I guess you eschew the contradictory view of BW who reckons the Greens should be making the running on starting a community debate on the nexus between population, immigration and environmental sustainability?

    He reckons both major parties have no idea what sustainability means.

    If I understand what you are saying, if the Greens run on sustainability, AGW, or just about any issue, then we are “fucked”?

    Yes. The historical role of the Greens in Australia has been to bust the reformist plurality. As a result there can be no new reform in this country. The Greens ride interference for the ruling Liberal-National Party. They may or may not intend to do that. But that is the effect of their political practice. This makes it very difficult for Labor to win. Indeed, preventing Labor wins is a goal – an explicit goal – of Green practice.

    Because of this and the adversarial, competitor-brand style of Australian politics, nothing the Greens purport to hope for will ever be enacted. End of story. Nothing.

    The LibKin are the Party of Pointless Ambition. Utterly fucking misplaced effort. You should be used to it by now.

  24. PeeBee @ #2276 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 11:52 am

    Peg, ‘contradictory view of BW who reckons the Greens should be making the running on starting a community debate on the nexus between population, immigration and environmental sustainability?’

    I don’t think it is BW that is ‘making a running on starting a community debate’, I thought that was Adam’s idea?

    😀

  25. lizzie @ #2257 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 11:23 am

    Sheoakbloke
    @Sheoakbloke1
    ·
    3m
    #ScottyFromMarketing on #ABCNews spruiking jobs created with Rail partnership with Gladys B’s government as infrastructure projects we need to get the economy back on its feet. Remember when Gladys bought those Korean trains and they didn’t fit in Australian tunnels?

    Refers to Gladys as one of his Nat Cab – got to keep up the spin.

    ‘got to keep up the spin’
    Er, yes, that’s how it works.

  26. guytaur says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 11:45 am
    Briefly

    Nope. You are wrong. Thats why you look so whacky to many people.

    I don’t care if some find my thinking eccentric. I think I’m right. The analysis offered of the failures, the contradictions, the dysfunction, the defeats in reformist politics are valid. The description/s of the role of the Greens is 100% on the money. Furthermore, the review of the past on which my reasoning is based also helps to understand the present and to anticipate the future course of Australian political action.

    I have a conclusion. No-one has shown why it’s incomplete or incorrect. That conclusion is “We’re fucked in LibKin Garden.” That is a correct conclusion.

  27. Barney:

    Others have remarked on police uniforms as well.

    Steve Schmidt@SteveSchmidtSES
    ·
    8h
    Here is one Police reform that should happen immediately. Policemen and women should start dressing like Police again. No more BDU’s, bloused combat boots or other military accoutrements. Shoes, trousers, collared shirts. Think Mayberry not Fallujah.

  28. Confessions @ #2284 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 12:02 pm

    Peter van Onselen@vanOnselenP
    ·
    32m
    Robodebt: ‘Taking out the trash’ a cynical move. https://theaustralian.com.au/commentary/robodebt-taking-out-the-trash-a-cynical-move/news-story/54194d93e07908eed371f92c8ac46b4e
    @australian
    #auspol

    ‘a cynical move’
    No!
    Surely not, this is unbelievable.
    Please someone tell Mundo it ain’t true!
    Not cynical!
    Not rat cunning clever!
    Not Scrooter!
    Not!
    Scrooter!

  29. That’s another problem I see, their uniforms are becoming more and more militaristic.
    It certainly doesn’t project calm.

    Being a copper in the US would be a shit job – for many reasons. Only another copper would understand what they go through so it is no wonder many group together like this and no surprise some do it in ways that contradict their ethics.

    Maintaining ethical standards in a job like that would take careful selection, extensive training, regular monitoring and retraining and independent oversight. My understanding wrt the US police forces is that it is amazing the ratbag element is in the minority.

  30. Someone tweeted a video of a New York police officer making a white power sign and laughing about it, and someone else tagged the NYAG in re-tweeting it. Hopefully that cop gets a ‘please explain’ from his employers.

    NY AG James@NewYorkStateAG·
    5h
    Thank you. We’re aware of this video.

    Jessica Seinfeld@JessSeinfeld·
    4h
    Thank you for being so engaged.

    NY AG James@NewYorkStateAG·
    4h
    That’s our job. We don’t take it lightly.

  31. The suspended police officers, pictured in the post above, are Trumpy. Trumpism is supported in an oblique way by the LibKin here and by their tragically-involved counterparts in the US. The splitting of reformist political voices is a contributor to the political success of the Trumpists. And yet, the Splitters still cling to Splitting. They want more of it. The more the Splitters succeed, the more likely it is that Trump and the Trumpy will win too.

    The violence in the US – the rage, the anguish, the deaths, the arrests, the pillaging – are from the same cloth as Trump. The rabble. It stalks the calm.

    Violence is a powerful thing. I don’t know if many bludgers know about violence. But I do. As a recipient. Violence gets right inside you. It is intimate and lasting. It has a long life and it mutates. Violence. It can take on a life of its own, inside a person, in the rafters or the floorboards of a person’s living rooms. It invites its cousins, heartbreak, despair and anger around. And they drink together. They pass the bottle and swig in turn. Then, senses dazed and looking for love – where did they leave it – or resentment, they might go out and join a rabble. Such a durable thing, violence.

  32. And he hides!

    Inside the White House, the mood was bristling with tension. Hundreds of protesters were gathering outside the gates, shouting curses at President Trump and in some cases throwing bricks and bottles. Nervous for his safety, Secret Service agents abruptly rushed the president to the underground bunker used in the past during terrorist attacks.

    The scene on Friday night, described by a person with firsthand knowledge, added to the sense of unease at the White House as demonstrations spread after the brutal death of a black man in police custody under a white officer’s knee. While in the end officials said they were never really in danger, Mr. Trump and his family have been rattled by protests that turned violent three nights in a row near the Executive Mansion.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/31/us/politics/trump-protests-george-floyd.html?smid=tw-share

  33. It is of great concern to me that Dutton is calling protesters “terrorists” and I fear that Morrison is following behind.

  34. Cud Chewer

    New Zealand now at 10 days in a row with zero.

    Now all they need to do is sort out that slack arse malingerer who is their only active case !

  35. Have we discussed the ABC WP poll? Not the Trump approval part – the Biden V Trump poll.

    Likely voters +5 to Biden
    Registered voters +10 to Biden
    General Population +13 to Biden.

    That is a huge difference between General Population to Likely voters. I dont recall seeing that in other polls.

  36. A stowaway aboard SpaceX’s first mission to launch astronauts to the International Space Station may have set a new record — the most sequins to enter Earth orbit.

    Formally revealed a few hours after Saturday’s (May 30) launch, but spotted mere seconds after NASA crew members Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley began to circle the planet on SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft, the sparkly third passenger sent “tremors” across social media.

    “We did end up with one stowaway on board our vehicle when we launched today. It was not just Doug and I who accomplished the launch here,” said Behnken, addressing the reported sighting of a blue and pink creature on the ship. “We do have an Apatosaurus aboard.”

    A long-necked, four-legged dinosaur that walked the Earth during the late Jurassic period 150 million years ago, the Apatosaurus had now achieved spaceflight.

  37. Simon Katich says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 12:26 pm
    Have we discussed the ABC WP poll? Not the Trump approval part – the Biden V Trump poll.

    Likely voters +5 to Biden
    Registered voters +10 to Biden
    General Population +13 to Biden.

    That is a huge difference between General Population to Likely voters. I dont recall seeing that in other polls.

    The Splitters will try to drive down voter participation – to increase the abstention rate. To the extent they succeed, they will help bring about the defeat of Biden, and ipso facto, the re-election of Trump. The writer, West, cited here this morning by the LibKin bludger, guytaur, is a Splitter. They want to contribute to the defeat of Biden, for whom an association with Obama is a sign of guilt and failure. Like Trump, they despise Obama.

    In the coming election, Not Voting will be a way of voting for a shadow third candidate….for Ralph Nader’s political offspring. This also has the advantage of not requiring any money raising or campaign events. It might work. We’ll see a lot of this. The LibKin here will embrace it.

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