Newspoll breakdowns broken down

Newspoll offers a deep dive into its recent polling data, offering unprecedented detail on voting intention by income, education, language and religion, along with more familiar breakdowns by state.

The Australian has published a set of geographic and demographic breakdowns compiled from multiple recent Newspoll results, once a regular quarterly feature of the pollster notable for its results at state level, but now greatly expanded as more elaborate methods are adopted in response to last year’s pollster failure. Where in the such breakdowns were limited to geography, gender and age, there are now also education (no tertiary, technical and university), household income, English or non-English speaker at home, religion (only Christian and no religion are provided, but they presumably have a small sample result for other religions).

Compared with a national result of 50-50, the state breakdowns show level pegging in New South Wales (1.8% swing to Labor), 55-45 to Labor in Victoria (1.9% to Labor), 56-44 to the Coalition in Queensland (2.4% to Labor), 55-45 ditto in Western Australia (0.6% swing to Labor, and 53-47 to Labor in South Australia (2.3%). These suggest statistically indistinguishable swings to Labor of 1.8% in New South Wales, 1.9% in Victoria, 2.4% in Queensland, 0.6% in Western Australia and 2.3% in South Australia. The primary votes are notably strong for the Greens in Queensland, up nearly three points from the election to 13%, and One Nation in Western Australia, who are on 9% after never having done better than 7% in the last term.

The age breakdowns are notable for the 62-38 lead to Labor among the 18-34 cohort, a differential quite a lot greater than that recorded by Newspoll in the previous term, which ranged from 4% to 8% compared with the present 12%. The gender gap — 52-48 to the Coalition among men and the reverse among women — is at levels not seen since the Tony Abbott prime ministership, whether due to genuine churn in voting intention or (more likely I think) a change in the pollster’s house effect.

Analysis of the education breakdowns is made easy by the fact that two-party is 50-50 for all three cohorts, with even the primary vote breakdowns recording little variation, other than university graduates being somewhat more disposed to the Greens and allergic to One Nation. As the table below illustrates, there are notable differences between these numbers and comparable findings for the Australian National University’s post-election Australian Election Study survey, which recorded a strong leftward lean among the university-educated compared with those without qualifications and, especially, those with non-tertiary qualifications.

For income, Newspoll reflects the Australian Election Study in finding the low-to-middle income cohort being Labor’s strongest, with a relative weakness among the low-income cohort presumably reflecting their lack of support in rural and regional areas. However, the distinctions are less marked in Newspoll, which credits the Coalition with 46% of the primary vote among the top household income cohort (in this case kicking in at $150,000) compared with 51% in the Australian Election Study, with Labor respectively at 34% and 32%. Differences were predictably pronounced according to language (51-49 to the Coalition among those speaking English only, 57-43 to Labor among those speaking a different language at home) and religion (58-42 to the Coalition among Christians, the reverse among the non-religious).

The results are combined from the last four Newspoll surveys, collectively conducted between March 11 and May 16, from a sample of 6032, with state sample sizes ranging from 472 (suggesting a 4.5% margin of error on the South Australian result) to 1905 (suggesting 2.2% in New South Wales.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,634 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns broken down”

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  1. lizzie @ #2149 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 7:30 am

    Dave the peacemaker. I’m sure America is listening. 😆

    @SkyNewsAust
    · 56m
    Liberal MP @DaveSharma has called on United States citizens to “cool it a little and just engage in peaceful protests” as the US experienced a fifth night in a row of violent protests over the death of George Floyd.

    He wants Marise’s job!

  2. Vic, yes thanks I was aware of the white supremacist groups involvement, just the pennies took a while to drop. Totally agree nothing would surprise me how high up this went or what may come next.
    Just a shame the mobs aren’t going after the top 1% that apparently so much fear the mob going after them. (Edit I’m sisck to the core but no I don’t actually condone that)

  3. Rational Leftist @ #2146 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 9:30 am

    “There’s not always rubbish on social media. I saw a good meme on the weekend: Martin Luther King, you know, didn’t change anything by burning anything down and looting any shops.” — Scott Morrison on Ben Fordham this morning

    Of course Morrison said that. Morrison is exactly the over-privileged dipshit who likes to lecture everyone about what MLK believed – even though, if he were around as PM in the 60s, he would’ve dismissed MLK as a terrorist leader or something equally as derisive.

    ‘Of course Morrison said that. Morrison is exactly the over-privileged dipshit who likes to lecture everyone about what MLK believed – even though, if he were around as PM in the 60s, he would’ve dismissed MLK as a terrorist leader or something equally as derisive.’ Mr Albanese said this morning in a blistering attack on the Prime minister.

  4. Vic:

    When Sky was moving to free to air I worried that it would lead to their content becoming ubiquitous in the media. Thankfully it hasn’t happened, presumably because even their content is so out of touch with mainstream Australia that it doesn’t translate well to free to air TV.

  5. Terminator

    There is currently a huge rally in front of the WH

    Wonder how Trump will attempt to hijack this narrative

  6. Rational Leftist @ #2148 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 9:30 am

    “There’s not always rubbish on social media. I saw a good meme on the weekend: Martin Luther King, you know, didn’t change anything by burning anything down and looting any shops.” — Scott Morrison on Ben Fordham this morning

    Of course Morrison said that. Morrison is exactly the over-privileged dipshit who likes to lecture everyone about what MLK believed – even though, if he were around as PM in the 60s, he would’ve dismissed MLK as a terrorist leader or something equally as derisive.

    Yeah, and the power of MLK’s message got him shot dead too. By White Supremacist, James Earl Ray. 😐

  7. Fess

    I occasionally switch on to see what they are talking about.
    Last time I bothered. They were mocking joe Biden. Seriously f@@ked up

  8. From the ‘last gasp’ through ‘I can’t breathe’ race riots to a breath of polling fresh air for Trump?

    There is a terrible beauty in the riots. It is this terrible beauty that Trump is seeking to magnify and to then to exploit.

    The beauty is this.
    The plutocrats have been using race to facilitate US poor whites suppressing themselves economically practically since the US was formed.
    The plutocrats are getting better at it.
    Most of the thousand or so documented cases of police killing citizens are not African-Americans, noting that African Americans are twice as likely to be killed by police.
    Most of the citizens killed by US police are poor whites.
    Policy killings are therefore mainly a matter of suppressing the Underclass.

    Yet poor whites and lower middle class whites are highly likely to disproportionately vote for the Republicans, the Party that more than anything else aims to transfer wealth from them to a tiny minority of plutocrats and a few small sets of rent seekers.

  9. Morrison is triangulating with Martin Luther King.
    The aim is to get the Left wasting its energy and misdirecting its focus.
    Scotty from Marketing is clever, is he not?
    Why?
    Because the Left took its focus off the institutional racism in Australia that enabled the destruction of the caves and doing outrage about how dare Scotty appropriate Martin Luther King.

  10. boerwar @ #2158 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 9:50 am

    From the ‘last gasp’ through ‘I can’t breathe’ race riots to a breath of polling fresh air for Trump?

    If nothing else, they’ll distract nicely from his disastrously incompetent handling of C19. And a number of lesser scandals surrounding him and his staff/advisors/appointees.

  12. a r @ #2160 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 7:54 am

    boerwar @ #2158 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 9:50 am

    From the ‘last gasp’ through ‘I can’t breathe’ race riots to a breath of polling fresh air for Trump?

    If nothing else, they’ll distract nicely from his disastrously incompetent handling of C19. And a number of lesser scandals surrounding him and his staff/advisors/appointees.

    I doubt it, especially C19, it isn’t going to magically disappear.

  14. BiTB
    During troubling times finding scapegoats works quite well. Trump is blame shifting and tens of millions of his supporters will quite happily ignore Trump’s Covid failures and their own miserable circumstances and blame Afro Americans.
    These folk will be locked and loaded.

  15. Good Morning

    Things get worse in the US.

    How things are going to change I don’t know. If you missed it this is what a black person thinks.

    DR. CORNEL WEST: And now our culture so market-driven, everybody for sale, everything for sale, you can’t deliver the kind of really real nourishment for soul, for meaning, for purpose. So when you get this perfect storm of all these multiple failures at these different levels of the American empire, and Martin King already told us about that…

    The system cannot reform itself. We’ve tried black faces in high places. Too often our black politicians, professional class, middle class become too accommodated to the capitalist economy, too accommodated to a militarized nation-state, too accommodated to the market-driven culture of celebrities, status, power, fame, all that superficial stuff that means so much to so many fellow citizens.

    And what happens is we have a neofascist gangster in the White House who doesn’t care for the most part. You’ve got a neoliberal wing of the Democratic party that is now in the driver’s seat with the collapse of brother Bernie and they really don’t know what to do because all they want to do is show more black faces — show more black faces. But often times those black faces are losing legitimacy too because the Black Lives Matter movement emerged under a black president, a black attorney general, and a black Homeland Security [Secretary] and they couldn’t deliver. So when you talk about the masses of black people, the precious poor and working-class black people, brown, red, yellow, whatever color, they’re the ones left out and they feel so thoroughly powerless, helpless, hopeless, then you get rebellion.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/05/29/cornel_west_america_is_a_failed_social_experiment_neoliberal_wing_of_democratic_party_must_be_fought.html

  16. Ian Mannix
    @sedvitae
    ·
    13m
    If #theoz article is accurate, (and it might not because of political dump + Aust news values) I hate that well-off ppl who can afford a bigger #rumpusroom will be put ahead of social housing, which will create more jobs and fill a pressing need. #auspol


    Ingrid M@iMusing
    speaking of the Morrison government targeted spending of your money and mine in Liberal and marginal seats campaign…

  17. Continuo says:
    Monday, June 1, 2020 at 10:02 am

    In short, America is not great again. It’s a very deeply broken country.
    ________
    And as Scomo says it shows us how great Australia is.

  18. boerwarsays: Monday, June 1, 2020 at 10:02 am

    BiTB

    During troubling times finding scapegoats works quite well. Trump is blame shifting and tens of millions of his supporters will quite happily ignore Trump’s Covid failures and their own miserable circumstances and blame Afro Americans.
    These folk will be locked and loaded.

    ********************************************************************

    Trump playbook, where the president doesn’t have any real answers, so he decides to fight against an enemy. If he doesn’t have one, he makes one.

    “The president really only has the one playbook,” he explained. “Every crisis he’s encountered including his own making, Russia, Ukraine, the impeachment inquiry, this is what he does. He doesn’t try to unite. He fights, he tries to divide. He plays to his base. He puts out incendiary tweets and divisive messages.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/05/no-donald-trump-cannot-name-antifa-a-terrorist-group-heres-why/

  20. Excellent.
    We own our own home. I look forward to the Government taking money off renters and such like leaners and giving it to us for extensions that we don’t really need but which will improve the capital value of our house.
    Please, Scotty Daddy from Scomosa Marketing, could could you and Sharpy Sharma stop faffing on about how the Afro Americans should be good kids, and start shoveling some more money in our direction?

  22. lizzie @

    Dave the peacemaker. I’m sure America is listening.:lol:

    @SkyNewsAust
    · 56m
    Liberal MP @DaveSharma has called on United States citizens to “cool it a little and just engage in peaceful protests” as the US experienced a fifth night in a row of violent protests over the death of George Floyd.

    🙂 All hail the Dalai Sharma.

  25. I assume these renovation grants are loans no?

    If they are handouts, geez, I’d like to convert a Rumpus Room into a Cinema Room please.

  28. boerwar @ #2170 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 10:10 am

    Excellent.
    We own our own home. I look forward to the Government taking money off renters and such like leaners and giving it to us for extensions that we don’t really need but which will improve the capital value of our house.

    Yes, about time for some upper-class welfare. 🙂

  29. lizziesays: Monday, June 1, 2020 at 10:08 am

    phoenixRED

    Ooooops!

    *********************************************

    My sincere apologies – not sure what just happened – I think ??? I have now edited it …

  30. Australian pet owners current generate enough CO2 emissions to spend $13 billion on pets which in turn generates a pile of downstream CO2 emissions.

    Double the population, double that CO2 emissions, double the $13 billion and double the impact on around 9 million dogs and cats on the Anthropocene Extinction.

    I respectfully submit that Bandt should switch from astroturfing Nimbies for every minor development everywhere and trigger a community population and migration debate as per the Australian Greens policy site.

  31. boerwar

    Dogs (dingos) have been in Oz for a long time but did cats only come with the ships from Europe (as ratcatchers)?

  32. There is a Youtube feed around showing the Black Mayor of St Paul saying that *all* the ‘demonstrators’ arrested in his city were from out of the State.

  34. BW

    Note A Green New Deal supported by Biden was crafted by a woman of colour as a solution.

    You continually post trashing solutions. For you the perfect is the enemy of the good for the Greens.

    News for you no political party is perfect.

  35. How can it be a race war if white suburban girls are throwing Molotov cocktails at the fuzz?

    I think the tides of change a little more complicated than just ‘race war’, but in the US the ‘race war’ is at the centre of all that has been wrong for longer than the republic has existed. And for justice we need ‘white suburban girls’ and boys and mums, and dads all protesting and making a strong case for change.

    That the police brutality, insensitivity and stupidity has prompted molotov cocktails all over the US is almost entirely on the police.

  36. ar
    We are the virtuous ones. The ones made ‘good’ by making good.
    We are entitled to it.
    We worked hard – at times at three jobs. We saved hard. Really hard. We lived frugally. We invested and we re-invested. We generated jobs for others. We paid our taxes in full, neither evading nor particularly avoiding them. We donate generously to social, medical, scientific and conservation causes.
    It is about time we were rewarded for our innate virtue with some free money.
    Winners are grinners.
    Losers can look after themselves.
    I am sure that Martin Luther King or the Dalai Lama or Gandhi or any of those otherwise wrong people of color would agree with me and Scotty Daddy from Scomosa Marketing about this.

  37. There is a Youtube feed around showing the Black Mayor of St Paul saying that *all* the ‘demonstrators’ arrested in his city were from out of the State.

    Wasn’t this demonstrated to be 80% false within about 6 hours, why are we seeing these lies again?

  39. Off soon to Eye Hospital

    This image will get me ready for pointless scan prior to consult (about 2 minutes). Madam DeFarge sitting on high stool to collect fees. A fearsome sight even without the knitting. 🧶 That’s a ball of yarn. 🐑

  40. WWP

    Thats why I posted Dr Cornel West’s interview with Anderson Cooper.

    He puts it right on the line. Its not just a class war. The class war intersects with racism. White Supremacy is not going away any time soon.

  41. https://tvblackbox.com.au/page/2020/06/01/joe-hockey-joins-sky-news-australia/?feed_id=3839

    Live from Washington DC, Joe Hockey will provide exclusive US political and economic insights in the lead up to the pivotal US Presidential Election on Tuesday 3 November (Wednesday 4 November in Australia).

    He will also contribute exclusive analysis during the channel’s live coverage of the US Presidential Debates, Election Day and Inauguration Day.

    Mr Hockey will appear across a range of Sky News programs including a regular segment on popular primetime program Paul Murray Live. Mr Hockey will join Paul Murray on the program tonight from 9pm AEST for his first appearance as the channel’s US Political Contributor.

    Sick of the same faces.

  43. lizzie @ #2191 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 8:24 am

    https://tvblackbox.com.au/page/2020/06/01/joe-hockey-joins-sky-news-australia/?feed_id=3839

    Live from Washington DC, Joe Hockey will provide exclusive US political and economic insights in the lead up to the pivotal US Presidential Election on Tuesday 3 November (Wednesday 4 November in Australia).

    He will also contribute exclusive analysis during the channel’s live coverage of the US Presidential Debates, Election Day and Inauguration Day.

    Mr Hockey will appear across a range of Sky News programs including a regular segment on popular primetime program Paul Murray Live. Mr Hockey will join Paul Murray on the program tonight from 9pm AEST for his first appearance as the channel’s US Political Contributor.

    Sick of the same faces.

    No wonder they had to sack so many workers!

  44. Wasn’t this demonstrated to be 80% false within about 6 hours, why are we seeing these lies again?

    Was it? I saw it reported by several journalists but haven’t yet seen anyone assert the claim was false.

  45. In the US, as in Australia, the race war is also a class war. Analytically, the two cannot be separated.
    What is the appropriate behaviour for a person not of colour in either the US or Australia?
    Good question.
    Should such behaviour depend on the colour of the person’s skin?
    IMO, no because poverty is poverty is poverty.
    In other words, the race war is a subset of the class war.

    As noted above, the clear signal for this is that mostly white police persons mostly shoot members of the white underclass. (Noting that Afro Americans are more than twice as likely to be killed by the police. This masks the degree to which Afro Americans are members of the Underclass).

  48. lizzie @ #2191 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 10:24 am

    https://tvblackbox.com.au/page/2020/06/01/joe-hockey-joins-sky-news-australia/?feed_id=3839

    Live from Washington DC, Joe Hockey will provide exclusive US political and economic insights in the lead up to the pivotal US Presidential Election on Tuesday 3 November (Wednesday 4 November in Australia).

    He will also contribute exclusive analysis during the channel’s live coverage of the US Presidential Debates, Election Day and Inauguration Day.

    Mr Hockey will appear across a range of Sky News programs including a regular segment on popular primetime program Paul Murray Live. Mr Hockey will join Paul Murray on the program tonight from 9pm AEST for his first appearance as the channel’s US Political Contributor.

    Sick of the same faces.

    ‘Joe Hockey will provide exclusive US political and economic insights’
    These types are absolutely unbelievable.
    You’d have thought Hokey Joe would have died of humiliation and embarrassment after his failure as Australia’s second worst treasurer.
    After his outrageous harassment of Gillard followed up with his own ignominious exit.
    But no.
    He he is like a fucking zombie.

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