The Australian has published a set of geographic and demographic breakdowns compiled from multiple recent Newspoll results, once a regular quarterly feature of the pollster notable for its results at state level, but now greatly expanded as more elaborate methods are adopted in response to last year’s pollster failure. Where in the such breakdowns were limited to geography, gender and age, there are now also education (no tertiary, technical and university), household income, English or non-English speaker at home, religion (only Christian and no religion are provided, but they presumably have a small sample result for other religions).
Compared with a national result of 50-50, the state breakdowns show level pegging in New South Wales (1.8% swing to Labor), 55-45 to Labor in Victoria (1.9% to Labor), 56-44 to the Coalition in Queensland (2.4% to Labor), 55-45 ditto in Western Australia (0.6% swing to Labor, and 53-47 to Labor in South Australia (2.3%). These suggest statistically indistinguishable swings to Labor of 1.8% in New South Wales, 1.9% in Victoria, 2.4% in Queensland, 0.6% in Western Australia and 2.3% in South Australia. The primary votes are notably strong for the Greens in Queensland, up nearly three points from the election to 13%, and One Nation in Western Australia, who are on 9% after never having done better than 7% in the last term.
The age breakdowns are notable for the 62-38 lead to Labor among the 18-34 cohort, a differential quite a lot greater than that recorded by Newspoll in the previous term, which ranged from 4% to 8% compared with the present 12%. The gender gap — 52-48 to the Coalition among men and the reverse among women — is at levels not seen since the Tony Abbott prime ministership, whether due to genuine churn in voting intention or (more likely I think) a change in the pollster’s house effect.
Analysis of the education breakdowns is made easy by the fact that two-party is 50-50 for all three cohorts, with even the primary vote breakdowns recording little variation, other than university graduates being somewhat more disposed to the Greens and allergic to One Nation. As the table below illustrates, there are notable differences between these numbers and comparable findings for the Australian National University’s post-election Australian Election Study survey, which recorded a strong leftward lean among the university-educated compared with those without qualifications and, especially, those with non-tertiary qualifications.
For income, Newspoll reflects the Australian Election Study in finding the low-to-middle income cohort being Labor’s strongest, with a relative weakness among the low-income cohort presumably reflecting their lack of support in rural and regional areas. However, the distinctions are less marked in Newspoll, which credits the Coalition with 46% of the primary vote among the top household income cohort (in this case kicking in at $150,000) compared with 51% in the Australian Election Study, with Labor respectively at 34% and 32%. Differences were predictably pronounced according to language (51-49 to the Coalition among those speaking English only, 57-43 to Labor among those speaking a different language at home) and religion (58-42 to the Coalition among Christians, the reverse among the non-religious).
The results are combined from the last four Newspoll surveys, collectively conducted between March 11 and May 16, from a sample of 6032, with state sample sizes ranging from 472 (suggesting a 4.5% margin of error on the South Australian result) to 1905 (suggesting 2.2% in New South Wales.
D&M….the Cairns-led Left in the Labor caucus did their damndest to roll Gough.
Luckily the Labor-positive plurality hung in there for Gough from 1966 until the bitter end.
This plurality has been gutted by the LibKin.
Rachel Siewert on twitter
“I am deeply upset for the Puutu Kunti Kurrama & Pinikura people who have been treated with such disregard & disrespect. The State Gov must account for the processes that allowed this.
I cannot imagine a European artefact of such cultural significance being destroyed like this.”
What has Albanese said about the destruction of the 46,000 year old Aboriginal site? ditto WA premier?
Fascinating to watch Dragon performing alignment manoeuvres preparatory to docking. Good, clear pictures. Quite stunning, actually.
LIVE RIGHT NOW at:
https://youtu.be/QR35MUnRUuE
Apparently about 50 minutes to docking.
Thanks Peg
I was unaware of what those Greens had said about the wanton destruction
It’s disappointing our leaders have been missing in action
Especially the one whose statements of anger would count the most: our PM
As you say, C@t, he’s still waiting to be ‘told’.
We mustn’t offend the big miners ( who make big donations) must we.
Besides loosing the right to mine in the area and paying substantial compensation is there anything that Rio could do to make amends.
C@t
Yes, Machiavellian is a good description.
I suspect Machiavelli was smarter than Morrison. Different times of course.
But Morrison is learning from his mistakes, and grows more dangerous each day.
He gets better at pushing others to carry out his dirty work, whilst just making the feel good announcements.
I am very fearful for our future with this man in charge.
MB
What Rio Tinto did was perfectly legal.
The problem lies with politicians who did not act sooner to try and reverse the legislation allowing this desecration
It’s a constant battle
We campaign for politicians to enact legislation to protect our environment and heritage.
We may succeed, only to have a subsequent Gov’t quietly whiteant the protections, and fail to enforce what is left. Strangely said party then gets massive donations for its next election. All perfectly legal.
That’s it for me.
I’ll have to find a distraction so I can calm down.
I’ll watch some more scenes of US police standing with demonstrators
It gives me confidence there may be something positive out of that man’s death in Minneapolis
Spineless unethical politicians really piss me off
ML
Surely there should be some kind of punishment if the site was held in special redeem.
The American crew of the American SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule have just joined the Am… uh, International Space Station.
(In space, no one can hear you barf.)
An early good morning all. As my gym schedule returns to normal so does corruption and incompetence in government. Here is the corruption.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/01/coalition-gave-private-pathology-companies-lucrative-covid-contracts
Here is the incompetence. You have to keep watching these guys. Have a good day all.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-01/scammers-stealing-thousands-through-coronavirus-super-scheme/12301010
Socrates
In one case, it threatened to stop providing Covid-19 testing unless the subsidy it received was drastically increased.
—————
The Profiteers make it pretty clear they are there for profits not people!
Rioting cops attacking protesters….Trump entrenching power by fair means or foul? https://www.rawstory.com/2020/05/rioting-cops-attacking-protesters-is-a-sign-police-departments-are-rotten-to-the-core-columnist/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
All quiet on the Eatsern Seabord front. Though we have a red sky in the morn, so sailors be warned!
Greedy bastards gonna greed:
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/super-bender-retirement-nest-egg-withdrawals-used-to-boost-spending-on-non-essentials-20200531-p54y5q.html
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Ross Gittins lauds Philip Lowe’s direct messaging to the government about JobKeeper and Jobsseker payments.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-rba-has-just-one-message-for-scott-morrison-and-josh-frydenberg-20200531-p54y11.html
Regarding the new National Cabinet the AFR editorial says the states must drag the PM to the tax reform table.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/states-must-drag-pm-to-tax-reform-table-20200531-p54y17
Anthony Galloway and Rob Harris tell us that Australia is poised to join the world’s most exclusive political organisation after Trump called for an expansion of the Group of 7 nations without China in an attempt to build greater cooperation over restoring the global economy following the coronavirus pandemic. What could possibly go wrong with a lunatic as host?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-set-to-be-part-of-trump-s-g7-expansion-20200531-p54y36.html
Taxpayers could end up forking out more than $1 billion to the victims of the bungled “robodebt” scheme after Attorney-General Christian Porter conceded the Commonwealth may have to pay damages to the hundreds of thousands of people hit with debt notices based on flawed calculations. But the government is not countenancing an apology.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/porter-concedes-robodebt-scheme-unlawful-doesn-t-rule-out-damages-20200531-p54y2d.html
Bill Shorten is appalled that another minister has refused to apologise for the Morrison government’s flawed robo-debt scheme, accusing it of acting like a “legalised mafia”.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6775644/robo-debt-like-actions-of-mafia-shorten/?cs=14350
From the AIMN – Robodebt: Part man. Part machine. All crap.
https://theaimn.com/robodebt-part-man-part-machine-all-crap/
Professor Terry Carney writes that the government, in repaying 470,000 unlawful robodebts is in the middle of what might be Australia’s biggest-ever financial backdown.
https://theconversation.com/government-to-repay-470-000-unlawful-robodebts-in-what-might-be-australias-biggest-ever-financial-backdown-139668
Caitlin FitzSimons explains the measures the government will be taking to claw back incorrect JobKeeper payments. Sounds like the job is MADE for Stuart Robert!
https://www.theage.com.au/money/tax/employers-could-dock-staff-pay-to-claw-back-incorrect-jobkeeper-payments-20200529-p54xwd.html
Meanwhile John Kehoe reports that a bedding company will be investigated by the Australian Taxation Office over allegations it deliberately depressed monthly revenue to qualify for up to $11 million in wage subsidies under the federal government’s JobKeeper scheme.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/ato-to-investigate-11m-jobkeeper-claim-20200531-p54y16
On top of this Michael West reveals that Lendlease and Blue Care have joined the throng of large corporations cheating JobKeeper.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/lendlease-and-blue-care-join-throng-of-large-corporations-cheating-jobkeeper/
The SMH editorial contrasts federalism in Australia and the US.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/national-cabinet-gives-us-our-own-united-states-20200531-p54y5d.html
Facebook increased advertising revenue by 16 per cent to $673.9 million for the year ending December 31 and made a paltry $22.7 million profit, according to documents filed with the corporate regulator. I’d like to see the input costs that contribute to the $650m difference in revenue and reported profit. It stinks!
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/facebook-s-australian-revenue-soars-16pc-to-674m-20200531-p54y6m.html
And now Google Australia boss Melanie Silva has scotched claims it exploits news content for profit and dismissed calls for the search giant and rival Facebook to pay up to $1 billion annually in compensation to publishers.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/google-downplays-news-value-in-fight-over-1bn-compensation-fund-20200531-p54y4m.html
NSW has “pushed the envelope” in loosening restrictions, buoyed by good data, scary economic projections and a dose of exceptionalism writes Michael Koziol.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/leading-without-inhibition-inside-the-berejiklian-government-s-rush-to-reopen-20200527-p54wyr.html
Alexandra Smith reports that NSW will fast-track its hazard reduction during winter as it prepares for the next bushfire season.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/hazard-reduction-fast-tracked-with-100-extra-full-time-rfs-firefighters-20200531-p54y4p.html
The COVID-19 crisis has shown the remarkable capacity of Australians to rally together. Now its time to apply it to national reconciliation urges lawyer Danny Gilbert.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/extend-national-goodwill-found-in-pandemic-response-to-the-voice-to-parliament-20200529-p54xmt.html
The AFR’s health editor Jill Margo tells us how the united effort it took to steer Australia through the pandemic was an extraordinary feat of co-ordination and communication across a wide range of leading medical experts and scientists.
https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/tough-decisions-tears-and-agility-behind-australia-s-covid-19-success-20200529-p54xp1
Christopher Knaus reveals that the Australian government handed major pathology companies lucrative Covid-19 contracts through limited tenders, shielded their closed collection centres from takeover, provided large subsidy increases after industry lobbying, waived normal registration fees and promised to provide additional assistance outside of jobkeeper.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/01/coalition-gave-private-pathology-companies-lucrative-covid-contracts
According to Amanda Vanstone childcare has become a nightmare of regulation.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/childcare-has-become-a-nightmare-of-regulation-20200529-p54xsb.html
Class actions and litigation funders have moved into the political arena with big reforms on the cards explains Adele Ferguson.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/class-actions-the-next-political-battleground-20200531-p54y3e
Smaller pack sizes come in from today, so could these new opioid restrictions stop leftover medicines causing harm?
https://theconversation.com/smaller-pack-sizes-from-today-could-new-opioid-restrictions-stop-leftover-medicines-causing-harm-139558
Lee Duffield writes that News Corp’s closing of its community and regional papers, with few remaining and others online-only, cancels centuries of beliefs about media in the community, which were already dying.
https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/news-corps-closing-of-newspapers-a-blow-to-australian-communities,13947
The scourge of domestic violence has intensified during the lockdown period and the Prime Minister and religion must strongly condemn it, writes Dr Ray Barraclough.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/covid-19-lockdown-worsens-violence-against-women,13942
The London Telegraph reveals that Britain’s disastrous decision to abandon testing and tracing for coronavirus occurred because health systems could only cope with five cases a week. Nice work, Boris!
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/britain-could-only-cope-with-five-cases-a-week-papers-reveal-20200531-p54y5f.html
Another great day in the Land of the Free as protesters have defied curfews in place across dozens of US cities, setting cars alight, smashing windows and clashing with police.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/clashes-looting-and-buildings-torched-us-protesters-defy-curfews-in-dozens-of-cities-20200531-p54y6y.html
Tom Switzer outlines how Trump fans flames of resentment and hatred.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-fans-flames-of-resentment-and-hatred-20200531-p54y39.html
Greg Sheridan is concerned that, as American cities burn, they are putting to the torch not only a sense of community and common decency, but, at least for a time, a portion of Washington’s geo-strategic influence and power.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/world-a-poorer-place-as-american-unfluence-torched/news-story/b1200970e0cbe5c9a728812b6d735e77
Decimated by centuries of injustice and months of pestilence, young, black America has resolved to be powerful writes Elliott Brennan as the US hurtles towards this year’s elections on a wave of anger and death.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/us-hurtles-towards-election-on-wave-of-anger-and-death-20200531-p54y3h.html
Misinformation about the origins of Covid-19 is far more likely to be spread by pro-Trump, QAnon or Republican bots on Twitter than any other source, according to a study commissioned by the Australia Institute’s Centre for Responsible Technology.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/jun/01/covid-19-misinformation-pro-trump-and-qanon-twitter-bots-found-to-be-worst-culprits
Twitter finally got something right. After a torrid week of acrimony, bluster and a president unleashing a flurry of tweets threatening violence and terrifying harassment on a mid-level Twitter employee, Twitter took a stand on Thursday night that set the model for proper “content moderation” on its platform.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/31/well-done-twitter-youve-finally-figured-out-how-to-deal-with-trumps-tweets
The pandemic has revealed the danger of prizing ‘efficiency’ above all else. The recent slowdown in our lives points to another way of doing things writes Malcolm Bull.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/31/coronavirus-economy-change-pandemic
A pandemic unabated, an economy in meltdown, cities in chaos over police killings. All our supposed leader does is tweet writes Robert Reich from the US. He says that by having no constructive response to any of the monumental crises now convulsing America, Trump has abdicated his office. This is one hell of a spit!
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/31/donald-trump-coronavirus-pandemic-george-floyd-minneapolis-tweets
This article in Quillette says America’s black communities are suffering and the violent protests will make the suffering worse.
https://quillette.com/2020/05/30/americas-black-communities-are-suffering-violent-protests-will-make-the-suffering-worse/
As people protest across the US, Donald Trump and Joe Biden have offered divergent responses that point to a divisive political debate on race relations
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/may/30/george-floyd-killing-us-politics-trump-biden
As Minneapolis burns, Trump’s presidency is sinking deeper into crisis. And yet, he may still be re-elected opines American politics professor Timothy Lynch.
https://theconversation.com/as-minneapolis-burns-trumps-presidency-is-sinking-deeper-into-crisis-and-yet-he-may-still-be-re-elected-139739
Smarttraveller is warning Australians in the US to avoid large gatherings and follow the advice of American authorities after violent protests, looting and arson erupted coast-to-coast in response to the death of Minneapolis man George Floyd.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6776107/australia-govt-issues-warning-on-us-travel/?cs=14232&utm_source=website&utm_medium=home&utm_campaign=latestnews
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
Matt Golding
Johannes Leak
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/d7bcdb5c2ed78045ca8a9dc5b20fcf99?width=1024
From the US
Donald Trump has poisoned the minds of Police against Journalists, you have to think:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/george-floyd-riots-live-updates-minneapolis-national-guard-deployed-as-police-officer-charged-with-murder-20200531-p54y6p.html
How were they able to access their super if their income didn’t drop? You have to have at min 20% drop in income to qualify, or at least that’s what the guidelines say.
sports section cover, houston chronicle:-
https://mobile.twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1267123675435683840/photo/1
-a.v.
Don Lemon’s call for Black Celebrities to do their civic duty. Also giving a sanguine overview:
https://youtu.be/8FMZMVq5d1A
Thanks BK.
So much for robodebt being a nothing burger according to some Bludgers. I posted tweets yesterday from Labor front benchers attacking the govt over the matter, and today the media has focused on it.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/31/us/politics/michigan-trump-election.html
#ETTD
C@t:
In that Don Lemon video there’s a guy in Los Angeles who’s looting – taking a box filled with stuff and shoving it in his car. He covers his face, but his car and car rego are on full display!
Jobkeeper seems to have been another source of profit for large companies, while those who weren’t allowed to apply for Jobseeker are having to go to charities and foodbanks. We know Morrison doesn’t believe in fairness, but it’s a horrible thought that his Ministers don’t give a stuff either.
Confessions @ #2075 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 7:11 am
I just hope he isn’t African American (but I think he was) when or if a White Policeman catches up with him. And they will. They will have teams of video reviewers going over the footage so they can charge everyone…before the election. Just like Trump would want. So they can’t vote.
I honestly think these riots are the best case for Val Demings for Biden’s VP. She is Black and a former Police Chief. Then she should come out, in fact she should come out now, and say how she would heal the rupture between the Police Community and the African American community and show that only the Democrats can do it.
Oh, and because Donald Trump is pure evil, I have just read that he has declard Antifa a Terrorist Organisation.
When will they ever learn …..
Seattle cop caught on video with knee on neck of George Floyd protestor
In a video posted to Twitter, a Seattle police officer was caught placing his knee on the neck and head of a George Floyd protester in much the same manner that led to the death of the Minneapolis man that has led to the nationwide protest.
During the incident, one officer uses his knee to hold the man down, causing onlookers to yell at the cops, “Get your f*cking knee of his neck!” as the man begged for help.
Noting the calls, the second officer instructed his colleague to move his knee after seeing they were being filmed.
And just so we don’t forget what else we are fighting at the moment:
https://miro.medium.com/max/1400/1*J0sbPDMUn3fUlbZl-qyuvg.jpeg
https://elemental.medium.com/coronavirus-may-be-a-blood-vessel-disease-which-explains-everything-2c4032481ab2
train graffiti in belgium :-
https://twitter.com/i/status/1266694092139921409
-a.v.
https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1266845479268212736
Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.
C@t:
Lots of people with expertise on the matter have said designating Antifa as a terrorist organisation is a pointless political gesture, nothing more. Sounds like his attempted reform of social media – a bone to his base with no practical outcome whatsoever.
Confessions @ #2082 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 7:31 am
I read yesterday that it’s the union that ALWAYS gets in the way of prosecuting rogue police officers charged with crimes by having legal representation for them that gets them off charges (usually on technicalities). I bet they’ll go full bore to support Derak Chauvin too. Makes me sad to be a Union supporter. But they are a different beast in America.
On the other hand, the Police Chief in Santa Cruz, California took a knee with the protesters.
Also Shenectady police officers. I shouldn’t have to say it but many were White.
Interesting. Surely the state isn’t fixing to get the guy off on a legal technicality, setting it up so the judge has no choice but to dismiss the charges?
Trump has actually done this:
Sent Hydroxychloroquine to Brazil!
C@t:
I’ve read so many reports of law enforcement members being in the Trump tank that it’s no wonder Trump himself boasts about having the police and military on his side. I suppose the unions are just following the lead of their members.
Lol.
William LeGate
@williamlegate
·
3m
I love how no one has any idea what
@realDonaldTrump
is even talking about since the accounts he retweets keep getting suspended for bot activity
😆
“and say how she would heal the rupture between the Police Community and the African American community and show that only the Democrats can do it.”
***
It really would be wonderful if the race wars were to finally end in America but the Dems can’t do it alone. They probably can’t do it at all actually even if they tried their hardest. Racism and hatred is not something that just goes away like that after an election, especially if the racists’ side does not win (that just makes them angrier). There are deeply entrenched cultural issues and terrible unhealed wounds. I guess what I’m trying to say is there is no silver bullet and it’s unreasonable and unrealistic to think that things will suddenly resolve themselves if Trump is removed. He’s certainly not helping the situation but these issues existed long before Trump was even born.
What’s the go with the Tradies Envoy ❓ Scott Cam 😕
I noticed him advertising something or other a couple of days ago while I was practising my PB fast flick through the TV channels.
Maybe he’s already earned his $340,000 or so and is now busy with other worthwhile projects.
Double the population, double the pets. That is another 9 million dogs and cats out there killing and harrassing wildlife and speeding up Australia’s already massive contribution to the Anthropocene Extinction Event:
I am sure that Bandt will take this into account when he implements the Greens policy of having a community debate about population and migration numbers.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-01/dogs-more-vulnerable-to-snakebite-than-cats/12267688
F
Yep.
When trying to understand US politics the first step is always to figure out how race fits into the picture.
This is so with, for example, gun laws. Pro gun stances are largely a white affair.
Progress is slow but can be made.
In the first half of the last century there were thousands of lynchings and some of these were public spectacles.
Laws based on race were the norm rather than the exception.
IMO, social media with its capacity to create social bubbles and for bias confirmation has reversed some progress.
My guess is that Trump’s polling will improve as a result of the 2020 race riots.
The unemployed need to be taught “how to engage with the workforce”. This woman is incredibly thick.
Steve Ciobo has made a rapid transition from Coalition Trade Minister to lobbying for one of the Virgin bidders… from AFR RearWindow
“One former Somebody lending his expertise and entrée to Bain’s bid is former federal minister Steven Ciobo, no doubt offering unparalleled insight into the direction of the wind, at any given moment, in Scott Morrison’s Canberra.
A curious choice. Does the Prime Minister’s door even remain ajar to his former defence industry minister?
You’ll recall defence minister Christopher Pyne was allowed to serve out his final days in Parliament on the frontbench after announcing he would not contest the 2019 election. So, too, was human services minister Michael Keenan, despite his character assessment of his new leader as an “absolute arsehole”. Very pointedly, however, Ciobo was not extended the same courtesy, sent to the backbench just 2½ months from the May poll.
Having backed Peter Dutton in the Liberal leadership spill (and even run as deputy, garnering more votes, at least, than poor, deluded Greg Hunt), Ciobo had already been demoted from the trade and tourism portfolio when Morrison appointed his first cabinet in August 2018, a portfolio he’d really come to know and love. Ciobo spent almost as many nights in the key Virgin Australia destination of Los Angeles than George Christensen did in Angeles City – and Ciobo was even ordered by the (previous) Prime Minister’s Office to cut it out. Who knew West Hollywood was such a nerve centre for bilateral trade negotiations with Indonesia or Peru?”
https://www.afr.com/rear-window/steve-ciobo-advising-bain-s-virgin-bid-20200531-p54y1h
KayJay
I’m reminded of..
https://twitter.com/workingdogprod/status/1182089958942601216?lang=en
lizzie @ #2096 Monday, June 1st, 2020 – 8:12 am
Um, didn’t most of them just have jobs???