Newspoll breakdowns broken down

Newspoll offers a deep dive into its recent polling data, offering unprecedented detail on voting intention by income, education, language and religion, along with more familiar breakdowns by state.

The Australian has published a set of geographic and demographic breakdowns compiled from multiple recent Newspoll results, once a regular quarterly feature of the pollster notable for its results at state level, but now greatly expanded as more elaborate methods are adopted in response to last year’s pollster failure. Where in the such breakdowns were limited to geography, gender and age, there are now also education (no tertiary, technical and university), household income, English or non-English speaker at home, religion (only Christian and no religion are provided, but they presumably have a small sample result for other religions).

Compared with a national result of 50-50, the state breakdowns show level pegging in New South Wales (1.8% swing to Labor), 55-45 to Labor in Victoria (1.9% to Labor), 56-44 to the Coalition in Queensland (2.4% to Labor), 55-45 ditto in Western Australia (0.6% swing to Labor, and 53-47 to Labor in South Australia (2.3%). These suggest statistically indistinguishable swings to Labor of 1.8% in New South Wales, 1.9% in Victoria, 2.4% in Queensland, 0.6% in Western Australia and 2.3% in South Australia. The primary votes are notably strong for the Greens in Queensland, up nearly three points from the election to 13%, and One Nation in Western Australia, who are on 9% after never having done better than 7% in the last term.

The age breakdowns are notable for the 62-38 lead to Labor among the 18-34 cohort, a differential quite a lot greater than that recorded by Newspoll in the previous term, which ranged from 4% to 8% compared with the present 12%. The gender gap — 52-48 to the Coalition among men and the reverse among women — is at levels not seen since the Tony Abbott prime ministership, whether due to genuine churn in voting intention or (more likely I think) a change in the pollster’s house effect.

Analysis of the education breakdowns is made easy by the fact that two-party is 50-50 for all three cohorts, with even the primary vote breakdowns recording little variation, other than university graduates being somewhat more disposed to the Greens and allergic to One Nation. As the table below illustrates, there are notable differences between these numbers and comparable findings for the Australian National University’s post-election Australian Election Study survey, which recorded a strong leftward lean among the university-educated compared with those without qualifications and, especially, those with non-tertiary qualifications.

For income, Newspoll reflects the Australian Election Study in finding the low-to-middle income cohort being Labor’s strongest, with a relative weakness among the low-income cohort presumably reflecting their lack of support in rural and regional areas. However, the distinctions are less marked in Newspoll, which credits the Coalition with 46% of the primary vote among the top household income cohort (in this case kicking in at $150,000) compared with 51% in the Australian Election Study, with Labor respectively at 34% and 32%. Differences were predictably pronounced according to language (51-49 to the Coalition among those speaking English only, 57-43 to Labor among those speaking a different language at home) and religion (58-42 to the Coalition among Christians, the reverse among the non-religious).

The results are combined from the last four Newspoll surveys, collectively conducted between March 11 and May 16, from a sample of 6032, with state sample sizes ranging from 472 (suggesting a 4.5% margin of error on the South Australian result) to 1905 (suggesting 2.2% in New South Wales.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,634 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns broken down”

Comments Page 41 of 53
1 … 40 41 42 … 53

  3. C

    One of the reasons his defamation trial may really have been delayed (the official reason was security) is that relevant notices to B R-S may have been pending.
    I don’t know.

    Based on my understanding, I would be astonished if there are not at least two charges of murder against another SAS soldier.

    With respect to B R-S, I don’t know whether he has been served notice.

  4. Hi Fess I know but just to be prudent didn’t want to mention names. Sounds like we will find out in about a month after the processes have been followed.

  5. Boerwar, davidwh:

    I don’t know the intricacies, I just remember skim reading about the case last year.

  7. I think Heinrich Himmler was originally in the Greens but joined the Nazi’s because it was less vicious.

    For pity’s sake, don’t encourage them.

  8. Pegasus

    How is your research going into how wtte Rhiannon almost solely destroyed the NDP, an unsubstantiated claim you made on the basis of local folk lore?

    You say that like community oral history research is a bad thing. I am a scientist and researcher. There is no way I would make up things to substantiate a preconceived condition.

    I was told things about Hall Greenland and Lee Rhiannon(not her name then) by friends and acquaintances who were close to the events described in the Rats in the Ranks documentary, over many years (all close to the Annandale branch of the Labor party, but not all members) . These friends and acquaintances did not know each other, and so I thought it was possible that they were independent sources, which gives more weight to observations.

    As I have said, I do not know the truth, and will at some stage, perhaps when I go on long service leave early next year set about collecting these inner city political memories. They stretch back a long way, and will be lost if not collected soon.

    For Rhiannon, I have already said that I cannot find any conclusive evidence she blew up the NDP, despite being told so by more than a few people. Also, I will not be looking for it – it is no longer relevant to anything.

    So, you win: Allegation of Lee Rhiannon single-handedly destroying the NDP: not proved as far as I am concerned.

  9. BW I don’t know. Just going on the information Rex posted. I wouldn’t waste my money subscribing to NewsCorp. 🙂

  11. nath

    As a civilized Victorian I prefer to know as little as possible about the humid lands to the north, but as far as I understood West Connex was a bipartisan undertaking with only the Greens opposed to it.

    No, not at all. Labor was in favour of a line on the map that would have connected the southern freeway network to the northern freeway network, which would have taken a lot of traffic off our inner city roads.

    As the line on the map crystallised, Labor opposed West Connex.

  13. Cud Chewer says:
    Sunday, May 31, 2020 at 8:48 pm
    “A cello is God’s instrument between the knees!!”

    Oh.. the power between your thighs!
    _____________________
    Careful you’ll titilate Bill with posts like that!

  19. There may be something like secondary charges laid in relation to serious threats reportedly received during the investigations process.

    I am not at all sure but the ‘serious’ relates to two dimensions: what was being threatened and the trained capacity of those who might perhaps have been uttering the threats to actually execute the threats.

  23. D&M

    A historian friend of mine has studied how all that has been memorialized by various participants. I had a tiny role: I processed the images for one his books on the topic.

    One of the interesting themes to evolve, latterly, is the way in which the Left now seems to have lost the sort of structural thinking of the Left then.

  28. Redlands Mowerman @ #1959 Sunday, May 31st, 2020 – 7:34 pm

    From the US.
    “The Constitution says we have the right to peacefully assemble and we have the right to approach our government to redress our grievances. No where does the law allow me to burn crap down and throw a fit because ii don’t like what the government is doing. How is it my neighbors fault for what the government did? Why should my neighbor lose his business to my actions based on rage I have towards government and it’s abuse of power?
    It’s not just stuff, it’s called respect the law and respect your neighbor. You don’t have a right to steal your neighbors stuff because you’re mad at the government. You demand justice for the guy who is killed but then you yourself meter our your own tyranny towards others who have done nothing . AutoZone and Target didn’t kill the guy. The government did through it’s use of force. “

    So you haven’t caught up with the fact that it was a White Supremacist agent provocateur who smashed the Auto Zone windows? Or how the Minnesota Police have said that 80% of the arrests made were of people from out of the state?

    The peaceful but angry locals who demonstrated were trying to stop it!

  29. there’s more :
    police chief in santa cruz takes a knee with protesters
    central coast (ca) police chiefs speak out against
    https://www.ksbw.com/article/central-coast-police-chiefs-speak-out-against-the-death-of-george-floyd/32720419
    —–
    Minneapolis businesses, including some that were damaged, are standing in solidarity with protesters
    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/30/us/minneapolis-business-support-protest-riot-gandhi-mahal-trnd/index.html

  32. ———
    Or how the Minnesota Police have said that 80% of the arrests made were of people from out of the state?
    ———
    Is that right? I have read differently.

  33. BW

    A historian friend of mine has studied how all that has been memorialized by various participants. I had a tiny role: I processed the images for one his books on the topic.

    One of the interesting themes to evolve, latterly, is the way in which the Left now seems to have lost the sort of structural thinking of the Left then.

    Thanks for this. The one time the Left really came together in Australia was to elect Gough Whitlam in 1972, and to keep him elected in 1974, to enable Medibank, and an enormous number of other social reforms that were commonplace in the western world, but which the administration of Menzies and friends has not bothered to introduce to Australia in their long reign. Including sewerage! Which we finally got in the Blue Mountains.

    Now, the educated socialist liberals like John Curtin, have split from the working class progressives like Ben Chifley.

    Guy Rundle of Crikey fame called this split around March 2019, prophesying, correctly, that Labor would lose the May 2019 Federal election because of the split. Rundle seemed surprisingly triumphant about the split, even though history tells us that

    The Left
    Divided
    Will always
    be defeated.

    But the 15% that comprise the Greens define the Left as them, and them only.

    All I can assume is that they see themselves as the vanguard, and are looking forward to the dictatorship of the proletariat.

    I cannot see another way they expect to shape policy in Australia, when their current primary aim is to destroy the social fascists, otherwise known as the Labor party.

    Some if the Greens on this blog would do well to read the works of Konrad Heiden, very popular tomes in the modern day Rhineland: https://spartacus-educational.com/Konrad_Heiden.htm

    Heiden was a member of the German SPD, a party despised by the German far left as Social Fascists Also, sadly, a party in Germany that has become e a victim of PASOKifacation.

  35. Simon Katich @ #2032 Sunday, May 31st, 2020 – 9:31 pm

    ———
    Or how the Minnesota Police have said that 80% of the arrests made were of people from out of the state?
    ———
    Is that right? I have read differently.

    I must admit, it was a comment on Twitter by an American, however, one whose opinion I have found reliable in the past. On the other hand, it could have been Atlanta, Georgia or San Jose, California. But 80% was the figure, that much I do remember clearly.

  36. Imagine in Europe a cave 4,000 years old would be a wonder.

    In Australia caves with at least 40,000 year old occupation can be blown up and our traitorous chattering classes are obsessed with northern hemisphere Political nonsense.

    At times like this i really really loath our whole political class and their many and sundry attached parasites.

    Australia’s political parties are way pass their use-by dates. They all should trot off to Washington where their loyalty lies.

  37. All I can assume is that they see themselves as the vanguard, and are looking forward to the dictatorship of the proletariat.

    How can the petit bourgeoisie ever lead the proletariat!?!

  39. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, May 31, 2020 at 9:48 pm

    All I can assume is that they see themselves as the vanguard, and are looking forward to the dictatorship of the proletariat.

    How can the petit bourgeoisie ever lead the proletariat!?!
    ___________
    That’s true actually. You won’t believe what Greens voters pay for breakfast its criminal:

    $20 for smashed avos and poached eggs with fetta on sourdough. Plus a freshly squeezed juice and coffee?

    A $70 breakfast for two is common for me.

  41. Ah yes, Cash and Morrison have announced they intend to reinstate ‘mutual obligation’ requirements on ‘JobSeekers’ from June 1.
    Looking for jobs that don’t exist. Job ads have dropped by over 50%.

    Ignoring, of course, the obvious :
    That it’s the federal Government’s obligation to create conditions required for jobs to exist.
    Do they seriously think they are in power just to persecute those out of work in return for pathetic amounts of money?

    Morrison, Robert and Cash, privileged, callous, heartless.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/31/morrison-government-announces-return-to-mutual-obligation-for-jobseekers

  43. Maude
    Obviously a coincidence….
    ———
    Of course, coincidences have always been very common. I’m sure, in another amazing coincidentally, Rio Tinto had their statement of “regret” already.

  44. Maude Lynne,
    I think a nuanced perspective has to be taken on Mutual Obligation. I don’t think Morrison et al are stupid enough to simply want to grind the newly unemployed down by making them look for 20 jobs a fortnight. Way to piss off people who formerly voted for you!

    Instead, reading the press release about it I read between the lines and saw in it Morrison’s path to his new jobs nirvana. I believe that the requirement to be in training will be his artifice to get the unemployed down the shute into the human cattle truck and into the jobs that they will thus have no choice but to accept, after they have done the requisite training for it.

    Of course, those jobs will be lined up for these people by his mates that haven’t seen a unionist that they wouldn’t spit on. Unless it was one they had co-opted in the way that Howard showed them was possible.

    I’ve heard mention that the Hospitality sector will be first cab off the rank. So, with his Tourism background, Morrison will have no doubt imagined a brave new Australia full again of wealthy tourists being waited on hand and foot by the barely paid above subsistence level, Help Meets.

    I’d be surprised if Morrison thought any differently. Though he has figured out that the pathway to success is paved with the brains he’s picked of successful Labor thinkers. So we MAY see something more than that from him so that he can definitely win the next election.

    Don’t forget Morrison was the NSW State Director of the Liberal Party and a confidante of John Howard at the time Howard came up with the idea of taking Blue Collar Tradies away from the party they had historically voted for, Labor. So, it wouldn’t surprise me that Morrison is crafting a way to make the Labor Party completely redundant by seeing which other Labor voting blocs he can carve out of their numbers. He is THAT Machiavellian!

  45. Rakali
    Coincidences abound:
    The only politicians who have said anything about this disgraceful incident are the Wyatts.
    Ken Wyatt, federal Minister for Indigenous Affairs (Liberal), and cousin to Ben Wyatt, WA minister for Indigenous Affairs & Treasurer (Labor). Both have expressed regret, and promised to review legislation.
    Apart from that: NOTHING.
    Not a word from anyone else AFAIK
    (Edit: Any other politician, that is)

    I am disgusted.

  46. C@t
    Morrison is as cunning as a shithouse rat, and I wouldn’t put it past him.
    But he’s not as smart as Howard so his plans may come unstuck

    I guess we just wait and see what June brings

  47. Rio Tinto blast destroys 46,000-year-old Aboriginal heritage site

    https://www.9news.com.au/national/rio-tinto-blast-destroys-aboriginal-heritage-sites-juukan-gorge-western-australia-pilbara/afe6792a-1d3d-4ac5-8640-743d70d1d257#close

    Australian Greens Senator Sarah Hanson-Young said Rio Tinto’s destruction of the rare site was “disgraceful”.

    “I am appalled and deeply upset for the Puutu Kunti Kurrama and Pinikura people who have been treated with such blatant disregard and disrespect by the State Government and Rio Tinto,” Ms Hanson-Young wrote on her Facebook account.

    “The destruction of this sacred site highlights another one of the failings of Australia’s environment laws. It’s clear we need stronger laws, not weaker ones or we will continue to see our environment and sacred sites destroyed for big business.”

  48. Adam Bandt on twitter

    It’s #NationalReconciliationWeek, so what did governments allow a big mining corp to do? Utterly shameful.

  49. Scott Morrison is ‘still waiting to be briefed’ about the sacred site destruction. He could just read a paper instead of faffing about with samosas to increase his social media profile.

  50. Maude Lynne @ #2046 Sunday, May 31st, 2020 – 10:42 pm

    C@t
    Morrison is as cunning as a shithouse rat, and I wouldn’t put it past him.
    But he’s not as smart as Howard so his plans may come unstuck

    I guess we just wait and see what June brings

    People who know him, from profiles I have read, have stated that Scott Morrison would give Machiavelli a run for his money. I guess we’ll just have to wait to find out if he is worse than John Howard.

Comments Page 41 of 53
1 … 40 41 42 … 53

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *