The Guardian reports Essential Research’s latest weekly reading of concern about coronavirus finds satisfaction with the government’s handling of the crisis up two points to 65%, its best result yet out of the five such polls that have been published (no sign yet of the poor rating, which hit a new low of 17% – the full report later today should reveal all).
Last week’s question on state governments’ responses was repeated this week, and with due regard to sample sizes that run no higher than around 320 (and not even in triple figures in the case of South Australia), the good ratings have been 56% last week and 61% for New South Wales; 76% and 70% for Victoria; 52% and 63% for Queensland; 79% and 77% for Western Australia; and 72% and 66% for South Australia. Combining the results gives New South Wales 58.5% and Victoria 73% with error margins of about 3.7%; Queensland 57.5% from 4.6%; Western Australia 78% from 5.5%; and South Australia 69% from 6.9%.
Also included are Essential’s occasion question on trust in various institutions, which suggests that all of the above might be benefiting from a secular effect that has federal parliament up from 35% to 53% and the ABC up from 51% to 58%. The effect is more modest for the Australian Federal Police, up two points to 68%. In other coronavirus-related findings, the poll finds “half of all voters think it’s too soon to even consider easing restrictions“, with a further 14% saying they are prepared to wait until the end of May; that 38% said they would download the virus-tracing app, with 63% saying they had security concerns and 35% being confident the data would not be misused.
UPDATE: Full report here.
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 12:46 pm
Drama Queen alert for nath to pusillanimously scoff at…
I’m going to ask my GP on Friday for a COVID-19 test. I believe I may have picked up a small dose of the disease (it seems this is possible), when I took my eldest son to the international airport on March 7.
Subsequent to that temporary contact with the outside world, my #2 son and I developed similar symptoms but to varying degrees. I had a persistent sinus headache which just wouldn’t quit, an on and off again earache, lethargy, slept excessively for me, no raised temperature, loss of sense of taste for a couple of weeks and diminution of sense of smell and a shortness of breath which quite suddenly came upon me. Not to mention the magnification of pain.
_________________
You should consult your son the Astrologer. No doubt he can accurately diagnose you! I understand that in India as well as other places this is quite common.
Kakuru @ #792 Wednesday, April 22nd, 2020 – 1:10 pm
You’re probably right. The US continues to pick up around 30k new cases per day. Looks on track to hit 1M cases next week. And most other developed nations have mortality rates of 10% or more.
Germany – 3.3%
Spain – 10.5%
France – 12.6%
UK – 13.1%
Italy – 13.1%
Germany is the outlier. But I expect the US to track more like the UK than Germany. They could get 100k dead off the 820,000+ cases they have right now. Let alone the 1M+ they’re likely to have next week. To say nothing of red states trying to prematurely reopen on the basis of nothing other than “Trump said so”. Or the crowds of idiots protesting together in the streets for the same reason.
I just popped in for a moment to the broadcast of Turnbull. I’d forgotten how annoying his hesitant way of speaking can be, when he qualifies a word and goes back over sentences.
Not that I’m making any concessions to Scotty, mind. 🙂
The USA COVID mortality rate is tracking about 5.5% (deaths / known cases).
Of course the original claims need to be treated with healthy skepticism.
However, it does seem at least possible. That article linked here recently on ‘how does coronavirus kill’ explored the fact that there appear to be many different systems in the body that can be seriously damaged when things go wrong, not least the circulatory system. Blood clots and subsequent stroke are possible outcomes, along with heart attacks.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/how-does-coronavirus-kill-clinicians-trace-ferocious-rampage-through-body-brain-toes
Steve777 @ #803 Wednesday, April 22nd, 2020 – 1:27 pm
…and trending upwards. Really the only thing keeping it that low is how rapidly they’re still adding new cases.
They’ve only got 120,000 resolved cases (deaths + recoveries). Of those, 45k are deaths. There are 700,000 active cases in the pipeline. That 5.5% will continue rising.
ar (re Douglas Isles the actuary): “In other words he has no more credibility as an epidemiologist than any of us?”
Actuaries are particularly good at modelling future scenarios, making particularly use of probability theory. I haven’t read his report, but presumably Mr Isles has put some assumptions into his model about how many undetected cases there are in the community.
At the end of the day, any assessment of how many undetected cases there are in the community relative to confirmed cases is going to have to be based on an assumption: there is no earthly way you can model your way from any available data to a calculation of this ratio.
In short, it might be 5 cases to 1, or 2.5 cases to one, or even the fact that all active cases in Australia have been detected. Whatever you say it is, it’s ultimately a guess.
But is that good or bad for PK?
Jackol: “and didn’t suddenly fall over dead while walking down the street as suggested by the original claim.”
As this keeps coming up, I’m going to give my version, as I recall it very clearly. It was one French tourist in Bali who fell over dead in the street. And he wasn’t walking, he was riding a scooter.
https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/french-national-who-died-on-busy-bali-street-diagnosed-with-coronavirus-c-757207
Mundo accepts your apology Steve777
a r
On the other hand, the case fatality rate appears higher when testing is shit and lots of milder cases never get tested. There’s clearly a higher rate of death when health systems are overwhelmed, though.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sLR0vgpeWI
CudChewer
“On the other hand, the case fatality rate appears higher when testing is shit and lots of milder cases never get tested.”
Yes, exactly.
“I haven’t read his report, but presumably Mr Isles has put some assumptions into his model about how many undetected cases there are in the community.”
It basically rests on an assumption of how many cases there are, based on the death rate.
“Applying the carrier mortality rate estimate of 0.5% to the death data suggests”
“While a purer approach to modelling would generate a range for an estimate, crudely, based on the above three facts I assume a carrier mortality rate of 0.5% for the purposes of illustration. ”
It’s about the quality of analysis we’ve been doing on here, tbh. He may be right, but I can’t see he’s an expert.
https://www.actuaries.digital/2020/04/15/covid-19-is-more-widespread-in-australia-than-the-headlines-suggest/
“In short, it might be 5 cases to 1, or 2.5 cases to one, or even the fact that all active cases in Australia have been detected. Whatever you say it is, it’s ultimately a guess.”
Well yes. But saying he’s an expert and then repeating his claims was pretty disingenuous by the newspaper in question.
mundo: “Mundo accepts your apology Steve777”
“Smeagol always helps if they asks – if they asks nicely.”
People famous for referring to themselves in the third person:
George Costanza
Billy Ray Cyrus
The Hulk
Richard Nixon
Jesus
Mundo
(some of the above aren’t / weren’t real people)
Speaking of case fatality rates, for Australia deaths are currently:
1.1% of all cases
1.6% of all resolved cases (recovered or dead)
I expect this will trend toward about 1.4% as all official cases are resolved.
https://www.themandarin.com.au/131171-leak-of-turnbulls-memoir-to-be-referred-to-afp/
These people seem to think that their “immediate deletion” of the stolen goods somehow exculpates the senders’ trafficking of the stolen goods and thus permits them to refuse to identify him or her (or them, in the case of Mr Wilson).
Nothing says “conservative” like taking the law into one’s own hands!
Maybe they are saving it for the Police, but in that case why say anything at all? (particularly since saying they won’t comment as it’s a matter for the Police is both a complete excuse and in this case true). And Mr Littleproud volunteering it came from “a personal friend” indicates that he is aptly named.
Steve777 says:
Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 1:45 pm
People famous for referring to themselves in the third person:
_______________
You forgot Trump and Jeff Kennett but very good!
ACT reports 0 again. No surprises there.
I do feel a bit sorry for Angus Taylor as the Media have suddenly decided to attack him over and over about fuel reserves. All he’s saying really is that it’s a good time to buy because fuel is cheap atm. Just like anyone does, when a basic product is a special.
Be nice to hear the real conversation wouldn’t it.
The Trump administration’s response to the COVID 19 crisis has been marked by denial, incoherence, incompetence and blithering idiocy. No doubt its contribution to the USA’s recovery will be similarly bumbling and stumbling until they are hopefully booted from office next January.
Why on Earth would Morrison want to work with them?
I do feel a bit sorry for Angus Taylor as the Media have suddenly decided to attack him over and over about fuel reserves. All he’s saying really is that it’s a good time to buy because fuel is cheap atm. Just like anyone does, when a basic product is a special.
_____
lizzie
They are not really fuel reserves if they are not here in Oz as a maintained minimum inventory.
This deal is just forward buying a t a low price.
The Coalition style “fuel reserve” .
BK
Of course, but somehow Angus got himself tangled up and the media were, for once, getting stuck in. I think he was too pleased to be able to announce a ‘success’ and thought they’d all love him for it.
Bushfire Bill (Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 11:31 am) says:
Apropos today’s apparent topic, I think what Bill is trying to say is his favourite book is Crowds and Power by Elias Canetti:
– https://www.brainpickings.org/2015/03/06/crowds-and-power-elias-canetti/
lizzie
They are not really fuel reserves if they are not here in Oz as a maintained minimum inventory.
This deal is just forward buying a t a low price.
Exactly BK, and who wants to bet that some mate of Angus’ is somehow due a sizable commission in the chain somewhere.
We will probably pay the US to hold it for us, and it will end being used as part of their reserve if it was ever actually required (so just paying for their reserve).
nath: “You forgot Trump and Jeff Kennett but very good!”
And, as I earlier pointed out, Smeagol/Gollum.
And Captain Ahab for that matter.
BK
It was just so nice to see Angus on the wrong end of the media.
You’re all wusses. Not one Patrick White book as far as I can see.
It only took Chritos Tsialkas a year to read the lot, after he finally worked out that to read White, you have to read out loud, a consenting adult in the privacy of your own home. (One word missed and you’re lost. )
I beg to differ.
Seems to assume the most optimistic value available from a range of plausible options. For something that the WHO doesn’t even speculate on yet.
“ People famous for referring to themselves in the third person:
George Costanza
Billy Ray Cyrus
The Hulk
Richard Nixon
Jesus
Mundo”
Caesar
There’s even a word for it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illeism.
“‘Outstanding’: No new COVID-19 for the state
Western Australia did not record any new infections with coronavirus overnight, with only two cases registered in the past four days, Premier Mark McGowan announced today at a press briefing.”
ABC deadpan reporting the call between Morrison and Trump: they agreed on the importance of action on coronavirus – or something like that. 😆
lizzie
The call would have been “perfect”!
“a rsays:
Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 2:18 pm
Applying the carrier mortality rate estimate of 0.5%
Seems to assume the most optimistic value available from a range of plausible options. For something that the WHO doesn’t even speculate on yet.”
Sure. I’m not particularly criticizing the guys work, but I can’t see that he’s an expert in this subject. I’m expecting that real epidemiologists are aware of things like this.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #649 Wednesday, April 22nd, 2020 – 12:35 pm
https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/03/21/french-national-found-dead-on-bali-sidewalk-tests-positive-for-covid-19.html
Like the ever cautious records clerk, he deleted it but kept a copy just in case?
There was mention of that shyster Hinze sometime earlier. At a meeting of Federal and State ministers, he ranted and raved, his words going into the Hansard record. He then demanded that this section of the Hansard record be erased – that of course is a no-no. Eventually the section was erased from Hansard but the secretariat kept a copy “just in case”.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #835 Wednesday, April 22nd, 2020 – 2:19 pm
Mike (Goodies)
A bit dated but in case you missed it, Pie does orange man bad.
https://www.facebook.com/JonathanPieReporter/videos/lockdown-episode-4-orange-man-bad/846656035803755/
ItzaDream: “You’re all wusses. Not one Patrick White book as far as I can see.”
I’ve read most of White’s novels. The Tree of Man is very good IMO, and Riders in the Chariot is a flawed masterpiece (it gets a bit too melodramatic at the end for mine).
But he was a bit of a misanthrope at heart, and that can make his novels very hard going.
I think most posters were trying to recommend entertaining books, rather than challenging books that are also great works of art. (And, as I get older, I find some of the latter category more trouble than they are worth.)
BK
At the very least it was ‘tremendous’.
I read a cooment somewhere about objections to Rupert getting a state funeral and I was heading for the champagne bottle. But it was idle discussion. The evil mongrel still breathes.
I did not know just how much I resent living under the Murdoch thumb
yabba @ #832 Wednesday, April 22nd, 2020 – 12:32 pm
And what did he die of?
Like other links posted it’s all very fuzzy.
Despite having sold his soul to the Lord of the Flies, Latham is still much wittier than Bill Shorten.
“@RealMarkLatham
Two days into sales and Turnbull’s book has been discounted down by nearly half.
At this rate, it will be like the oil price, with him paying us to read it.”