Essential Research coronavirus latest

Confidence in the federal government and other institutions on the rise, but state governments in New South Wales and Queensland appear to lag behind Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia.

The Guardian reports Essential Research’s latest weekly reading of concern about coronavirus finds satisfaction with the government’s handling of the crisis up two points to 65%, its best result yet out of the five such polls that have been published (no sign yet of the poor rating, which hit a new low of 17% – the full report later today should reveal all).

Last week’s question on state governments’ responses was repeated this week, and with due regard to sample sizes that run no higher than around 320 (and not even in triple figures in the case of South Australia), the good ratings have been 56% last week and 61% for New South Wales; 76% and 70% for Victoria; 52% and 63% for Queensland; 79% and 77% for Western Australia; and 72% and 66% for South Australia. Combining the results gives New South Wales 58.5% and Victoria 73% with error margins of about 3.7%; Queensland 57.5% from 4.6%; Western Australia 78% from 5.5%; and South Australia 69% from 6.9%.

Also included are Essential’s occasion question on trust in various institutions, which suggests that all of the above might be benefiting from a secular effect that has federal parliament up from 35% to 53% and the ABC up from 51% to 58%. The effect is more modest for the Australian Federal Police, up two points to 68%. In other coronavirus-related findings, the poll finds “half of all voters think it’s too soon to even consider easing restrictions“, with a further 14% saying they are prepared to wait until the end of May; that 38% said they would download the virus-tracing app, with 63% saying they had security concerns and 35% being confident the data would not be misused.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,133 comments on “Essential Research coronavirus latest”

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  1. Julian Cribb
    The human species’ ability to cause mass harm to itself has been accelerating since the C20th. The risks emerging now are varied, global, complex and catastrophic. But they have solutions.

    The Commission for the Human Future here calls on the nations and peoples of the Earth to
    come together, as a matter of urgency, to prepare a plan for humanity to survive and thrive,
    far into the future.
    To do so, our first Round Table has concluded, it is essential that everybody understands
    and plays their part in solving the ten catastrophic global risks that menace our future, in
    ways that assure not only our survival as a civilization but also our well-being as humans and
    that of the Earth we inhabit.
    Lately, we have had many warnings. Human activity and numbers are transforming our
    world. Wildfires, floods, droughts, melting ice caps, large-scale extinctions of plants and
    animals, shortages of water, loss of soil, forests and sea life combined with rising food
    insecurity, universal pollution, pandemic diseases, collapsing states, wars and refugee crises
    are a wake-up call that our very way of life is at risk.

  2. HaveAChat

    it’s not a free market and therefore any pretense should be dropped.

    From my entire comment that’s the key line to take away.
    We are not a free market economy no matter how much the IPA or the likes of Jerry Harvey like to make out.
    We are largely socialist (depending up your definition of socialist), it’s just which side of the fence the government is throwing the money and which side is being controlled more, either through Labor laws or Corporate Law.
    Companies (and most of them do) that are continually going on about government regulation and the impact this has on the “Free market” seem to primarily be whinging that they are not getting enough handouts and seem awful quick to demand support when things go wrong.

  3. Of course, how could I forget: Flashman (and the following 11 titles in the series, especially Flashman and the Indians). I’m shocked actually I didn’t put those in my first list. Shocked.

  4. Trump, in my opinion, is only a symptom of the disease which infects the American institutional structure, not the cause. For example; Even if Trump wasn’t President and there was a more component response from the White House to the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Still, I argue that America would have gone through a situation at least as bad as France, maybe as bad as Spain, Britain or even Italy. This is because of the nature of America’s health system which means a lot of people in other countries would go to the doctor or even the emergency department just don’t.

    This is because they can’t afford to do so, despite America having a population on average younger than those countries I have mentioned, the population is as vulnerable or even more so to COVID-19 due to the percentage of people with chronic health issues they aren’t being treated.

    That is a testament to how badly run America’s institutions are, even compared to ours. Seriously some American commentators have remarked that America is either a ‘developing country’ or even a ‘failed state’.

  5. Leo Jai™
    Here in the UK you can only get a COVID-19 test if you’re admitted to hospital. If you exhibit symptoms of continuous cough and/or high temperature you just self-isolate for 7 days. Calling GP is discouraged.


  6. Tristo

    It may not make me popular but America has an epidemic of stupidity. Far too many people who are ill-educated, religiously brain damaged, insular, selfish and completely unaware of just how broken their country actually is. That’s at the root core of the problem. Trump may be a symptom of that but hopefully the symptom might be bad enough for the more rational part of American to get out the needle.

  7. The Guardian

    QLD Greens MP for Maiwar, Michael Berkman, took to Twitter to warn that new residential tenancy laws being voted on in state parliament tonight will incidentally create new grounds for a landlord to evict a tenant.

    Instead of passing a moratorium on all evictions, the legislation will only outlaw evictions for tenants that can prove their income has been affected by Covid-19.
    But Berkman says the laws will also make it legal to evict a tenant on a fixed-term lease if they want to sell that property with vacant possession, something landlords can’t do at the moment.

  8. 1. Confessions of An English Opium Eater- Thomas De Quincy
    2. A Clockwork Orange- Anthony Burgess
    3. Pride and Prejudice- Jane Austen
    4. The World According to Garp- John Irving
    5. The Pear-Shaped Man- George RR Martin
    5. Sons and Lovers- D. H. Lawrence
    5. De Rerum Natura- Lucretius (a text which I translated from the Latin for my 3 Unit HSC Latin course)

  9. “lizziesays:
    Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 11:43 am
    Julian Cribb

    The list of actions is pretty unspecific. The report is pretty unimpressive, having a brief skim. It’s the type of thing CEOs put together and think they’ve done something marvelous. Basically a collection of motherhood statements and professions of hope.

    Saying, for example on the need to reduce “denial and misinformation” (Page 20)
    ” Another is for scientists to increase efforts in organised outreach which proactively communicate the science of societal risk with the widest possible range of stakeholders. ”

    Well yeah. But how do you actually do that? Do we fund scientists to do that? Who vets what they say – as the current situation has shown, not all scientists are “correct”?

    Not impressed. The authors think they’ve done something remarkable by identifying “problems”, which are pretty obvious, and leaving the work to others as to how to solve them.

  10. Blobbit

    I expect they consider that getting people even to acknowledge the ‘problems’ is almost out of reach at present. Looking at Morrison et al, I’d agree.

  11. Greens MP for Maiwar, Michael Berkman on twitter (22 hrs ago):

    Just had a briefing with Qld ministers on legislation to be debated by Parliament tomorrow.

    Rather than implementing a moratorium on evictions like they’re meant to, these new laws *create extra grounds* for landlords to evict a tenant during COVID-19.

    The Qld Government is proposing that the ban on evictions should ONLY apply to tenants who can prove they’re affected by COVID-19. Anyone else can be kicked out.

    Aren’t we trying to keep everyone inside? How does this help us keep the whole community safe?

    Even if you’re eligible under these laws and the eviction ban applies to you, you can still be kicked out for a bunch of reasons. Like keeping a pet. (Yes, seriously).

    Here’s the kicker. The laws add a NEW GROUND for eviction if the landlord wants to sell the property with vacant possession. Right now they can’t do that on a fixed term lease.

    I cannot understand how they’re justifying creating a new way to kick tenants out during a pandemic.

  12. Andrew E: It sounds to me that, with an extended period at home, you might be ready to tackle Gibbon’s Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. (I got about 500 pages or so into it, and it was very interesting, but extremely daunting.)

    If you like classical era historical novels (albeit none of these are Roman): those of Mary Renault about the Greek world are really great. Also Gore Vidal’s Creation – about an imaginary 5th century BC traveler who went from Greece through the Middle East to China and India – is well worth a read.

    While we are on Gore Vidal, his very quirky American historical novels (Burr, Lincoln, 1876, etc.) are heaps of fun. And, if you can get hold of one, any book of his essays is a major treat.

  13. Tristo

    This is because of the nature of America’s health system which means a lot of people in other countries would go to the doctor or even the emergency department just don’t.

    Which was reflected in a recent article in the NYT(?). It highlighted the huge increase in the number of people in the city being found dead in their home or in the street.

  14. US Population 331,002,651

    Worldwide cases 2,552,718
    USA cases 816,612
    31.98% of worldwide cases
    USA is 4.2% of the world population

    Worldwide deaths 177,267 Rate 6.94%
    USA deaths 45,207 Rate 5.53%
    USA 25.50% of Worldwide Deaths

  15. CC: “That’s odd lists NSW 2, VIC 0 lists NSW 5, VIC 2”

    Victoria had two new cases, but also reallocated 2 to interstate (presumably NSW). I’m not sure where the 5th case came from.

    Covid19data has a policy of only reflecting revised case numbers in the cumulative total, not the daily new cases. covidlive does reflect changes in the daily new cases.

  16. meher baba
    “t sounds to me that, with an extended period at home, you might be ready to tackle Gibbon’s Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. (I got about 500 pages or so into it, and it was very interesting, but extremely daunting.):

    Gibbon’s epic work is beautifully written, but very out-of-date with respect to Roman history.

  17. Cud Chewer

    That will reflect the ‘ownership’ fight between Glady and Dan

    I can confirm that there are 1,336 cases of coronavirus in Victoria. That is the same total as yesterday, but there are, in fact, two new cases.

    Two have been removed on the basis that they have been added to interstate tallies.

    That’s where they tested positive

  18. Which was reflected in a recent article in the NYT(?). It highlighted the huge increase in the number of people in the city being found dead in their home or in the street.

    And people just dropping to the ground where they walked, dead, in Indonesia.

  19. True dat.

    The true number of people infected with COVID-19 in Australia is likely to be much higher than the official government tally, experts say, with one estimate putting the figure as high as 30,000.

    There have been 6623 confirmed COVID-19 cases in Australia so far, but independent epidemiologists said that number is likely to be a significant underestimate.

  20. “Cud Chewersays:
    Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 12:02 pm
    The revisions are getting all too common lately…”

    The real world is messy. It’s a choice between having data quickly or 100% accurate.

    It’ll probably happen more as the numbers get close to zero.

  21. ‘Schipper naast god’ Jan de Hartog.
    The Aubrey/Maturin series Patrick O’Brien.
    ‘Persuasion’, ‘Pride and Prejudice’ and ‘Sense and Sensibility’ by Jane Austen.
    Les poèmes de Paul Verlaine.
    ‘The Boer War’ by Thomas Pakenham.
    Any of the Dalrymple Indian histories.
    ‘The Singapore Grip’ JG O’Farrell.

  22. poroti I don’t care who “owns” a case – so long as we get a reliable view of what’s actually happening in the end game.

    I’d also love to see some mapping of the remaining hot spots at a postcode level.
    There is a map here but it presents all the data from the start. I’d rather be able to view just the last two weeks.

  23. “It’ll probably happen more as the numbers get close to zero.”

    Yes, I get that impression. Though it will be hard to shift/reclassify a non case 🙂

  24. According to an article in the Guardian, Malcolm Turnbull has now decided to become an activist; just like Hilary Clinton, who claims that that is what she has on her business card.

  25. Cud Chewer

    You may not but you can be damn sure the premiers will as they battle for “Zero Day Honors” . ‘Tis the year of the plague replacement for the State of Origin series 🙂

  26. C@tmomma

    This makes for sobering reading for anyone who thinks the reported number of cases (which is extremely low) accurately reflects the actual number of cases (which is likely much, much higher) in Australia.

  27. For those looking for a good book
    1) Sunne in splendour – Sharon Penman
    2) Her Welsh trilogy Here be Dragons, Falls the shadows, The Reckoning.

    Historial fiction but extremely well written and as far as possible accurate to the history.

  28. C@tmomma @ #721 Wednesday, April 22nd, 2020 – 10:04 am

    Which was reflected in a recent article in the NYT(?). It highlighted the huge increase in the number of people in the city being found dead in their home or in the street.

    And people just dropping to the ground where they walked, dead, in Indonesia.

    Do you have a reference for this?

  29. Trump’s Support Sinks Into The 30s As Voters Aren’t Buying His Coronavirus Propaganda

    Donald Trump’s support tumbled into the 30s in a head-to-head matchup against presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden, a new survey of registered voters found.

    According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Tuesday, the unpopular president is trailing Biden by eight percentage points, 47 percent to 39 percent.

  30. Someone’s talking sense. But will the MSM notice the fiasco? 🙁

    ‘The rorting from employers in the #Jobkeeper scheme will be massive, the government needs to be very careful it doesn’t turn into another very expensive fiasco.

    One thing Scott Morriosn, Josh Fydenberg & Mathias Cormann are great at is enormous stuff-ups at govt level. #auspol

  31. Greensborough Growler says: Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 9:40 am
    I am not wasting this pandemic.
    I am re-reading the whole Michael Connelly Detective Thriller series. Only a couple more to go.

    When you finish reading the Connolly might I suggest you try John Connolly’s “Charlie Parker” or Christopher Fowler’s “Bryant and May” books.

  32. “This makes for sobering reading for anyone…”

    Mmm. Maybe, but it’s an estimate by actuaries. They’re as expert in modelling pandemics as epidemiologists are in modelling to set insurance rates.

  33. Bushfire Bill @ #689 Wednesday, April 22nd, 2020 – 11:31 am

    I was called a “racist” by a hit-squad of commenters here. Their comments were obviously hurtful, and designed to be so. They were also untrue, which made them and their constant repetition all the more mischevious.

    Hurtful? Oh, for goodness sake, don’t be such a ridiculous wuz.

    Your comments were insulting, offensive and stereotypically racist. That’s why you were called out.

    Just move on, FFS. Stop trying to both rewrite history and justify yourself every day by pretending you are the victim here.

  34. C@t @12:06

    I got to see that Actuaries Institute report as it was being circulated and reviewed. It got toned down. There were definitely more cases than have been reported, though I’m personally more inclined to think its more like 2 to 2.5x than 5x.

    A simpler way of looking at this is that yes there are cases that are either asymptomatic or that for reasons of being too mild (someone had the virus but didn’t take action) or people with symptoms getting excluded by testing guidelines. And these don’t show up on the figures.

    However, some fraction definitely will. If that fraction were 50 percent then one out of two infections will show up as an official case. What this means is that every time you see an official case there’s quite probably another case that was infected at about the same time (on average) that doesn’t show up.

    The good thing about this logic is that the curve of recoveries of known cases will act as a good proxy for the curve of recovery for undiagnosed cases. As we see fewer and fewer active cases we have good reason for believing that the hidden cases are also dying out. And its probably a bit better than that because the hidden cases being generally milder will progress to being non infectious sooner on average.

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