1:30pm Thursday Biden now leads Sanders by 1,199 to 902 in The Green Papers’ delegate count.
2:30pm The delegate count at The Green Papers has Biden leading Sanders by 1,178 to 884. Biden is well on his way to the magic 1,990 delegates required, but several primaries have been postponed until June, so he’ll have to wait longer. Overall popular votes are currently 40.7% Biden, 30.6% Sanders.
2:13pm Arizona casts most of its votes by post. With most counties reporting their early postal votes, Biden leads by 42.8-30.0, and it has been CALLED for him.
1:42pm In late counting updates, Biden has won Washington State by 1.4% with few votes left. This should have been a strong state for Sanders. In California, Sanders leads Biden by 35.2-28.0, with still over 700,000 votes left. Sanders’ lead has lifted from 6.6% a week ago.
1:30pm Some good news for left-wing Democrats! With 72% reporting, progressive challenger Marie Newman leads conservative Democrat incumbent Dan Lipinski by a 47-44 margin in the Democratic primary for Illinois’ third Congressional District. Dave Wasserman has CALLED it for Newman.
12:40pm With 38% reporting in Illinois, Biden is winning by 59-37.
11:30am Biden wins the Illinois primary, where he leads by 65-29 with 2% reporting.
11:12am Wednesday Biden has won the Florida primary, where he currently leads Sanders by 61-23 with 73% reporting.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
This is an updated version of an article I had published at The Conversation on Monday.
Four states were scheduled to hold Democratic primaries on Wednesday in Australia: Florida, Ohio, Illinois and Arizona. These states will award 14.5% of all pledged delegates, taking us to 61.5% of total delegates. However, Ohio dramatically postponed its primary owing to coronavirus concerns. Polls close between 10am and 1pm AEDT.
Given Joe Biden’s crushing victories over Bernie Sanders last Tuesday, the Democratic contest is effectively over, and Biden will be the nominee. So the question now is how Biden will fare against Donald Trump in the general election this November.
Trump has alienated many highly educated voters with his general behaviour; these voters assisted Biden against Sanders in suburban counties. But most lower-educated voters did not care about Trump’s behaviour so long as the US economy was going well. And until recently the economy was going very well.
According to the official February jobs report, there were 273,000 jobs created that month, and an unemployment rate of just 3.5%. Inflation-adjusted weekly wages were up 0.5% in February, lifting the annual rate from zero to 0.7%. The Dow Jones index was above 29,000 points on February 20.
The coronavirus outbreak has heavily impacted global stock markets, with the Dow now just over 20,000. It has not yet affected the US jobs situation, with weekly jobless claims at 211,000 on March 7, about where they have been for most of the last year. The US Labor Department releases these reports every Thursday.
However, the health and economic impact of coronavirus will almost certainly worsen. There are now almost 3,500 officially confirmed US coronavirus cases, and this is likely to be a major undercount owing to lack of testing. Measures attempting to halt the spread of the virus, such as by closing restaurants, schools, sport and tourist attractions, will have an economic impact.
According to the Kaiser Family Foundation’s Health System Tracker, the US health care system is worse than in comparable countries. About 49% of Americans have private health insurance paid for by their employer; if they lose their jobs in an economic downturn, they also lose their health insurance.
In 2010, Barack Obama and Democrats passed the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) to assist the uninsured. In 2017, Trump and the then-Republican controlled Congress came close to repealing Obamacare. If there is a coronavirus-driven recession and health crisis, Democrats will use the 2017 votes to attack Republicans.
In the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, Trump’s ratings with all polls are currently 42.7% approve, 53.1% disapprove (net -10.4%). With polls of registered or likely voters, his ratings are 43.9% approve, 52.4% disapprove (net -8.5%). His ratings have slid since their mid-February peak.
In general, the beginning of a major crisis helps incumbent governments. FiveThirtyEight has charts of previous presidents’ ratings, and George W. Bush’s ratings surged over 30 points to 83% approval immediately after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.
At this stage, there is not yet a recession or a health crisis in the US. But Trump is vulnerable if either occurs. The economy has been Trump’s great asset. In my opinion, it’s the only reason he has a realistic chance of re-election. On health care, Trump’s ratings were close to their record lows near the July 2017 attempt to repeal Obamacare. Coronavirus poses a clear danger to Trump’s re-election.
In the RealClearPolitics average of national Democratic polls, Biden leads Sanders by a 55-34 margin, showing the contest is over. In general election polls, Biden leads Trump by 6.4%. Furthermore, in the four polls taken after March 3 Super Tuesday, when Biden took a strong grip on the Democratic nomination, he led Trump by an average 8.5%.
Israel: Gantz to attempt to form government
At the March 2 Israeli election, PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc won 58 of the 120 Knesset seats, to 55 combined for Blue & White (B&W), the Joint Arab List and Labor. Yisrael Beiteinu, which was once part of the right bloc, won seven seats. On Sunday, B&W leader Benny Gantz won the support of 61 Knesset members. He now has six weeks to form a majority government, which would require both the Joint List and Yisrael Beiteinu.
Yep. Getting a job that has employer health care for you and your family is the main driver for living easily in the USA. Only once you have that does the USA work for you. (My company budgeted $10k per year per employee for health insurance, plus a $5k contribution from each employee, and that was a dozen years ago.) Without health insurance the ER will treat you and then bill you (more than the insurance company you don’t have would have been billed) and then bankrupt you. And of course the debt collectors and legal hassles surface before that.
Yep. Yep.
Avigdor Lieberman with his 7 seats remains the Israeli kingmaker, but he has 2 problems:
1. The Bibi Block contains the religious nutters, who Lieberman hates.
2. The Benny Gantz Block contains the Joint List of Arabs, who Lieberman hates.
So who does he hate more?
Yisrael Beiteinu chairman Avigdor Lieberman said Thursday that Benjamin Netanyahu “can no longer be prime minister,” as far as he’s concerned.
Lieberman told Israeli news website Walla that Netanyahu’s political career has come to an end, adding that “Netanyahu has been in power for too long and has lost the instincts and the motivation to work and do what is necessary.”
Moreover, Lieberman categorically ruled out that his party would recommend President Reuven Rivlin that Netanyahu be tasked with forming a government after the general election on March 2. He added, however, that he “would very much like to see Netanyahu’s Likud as one of the parties forming the next governing coalition.”
When asked whether Benny Gantz’s Kahol Lavan had offered him to join a government with the Joint List, an alliance of four Arab-majority parties, Lieberman said that this “is out of the question. The Joint List is a party that supports terror, they’re illegitimate, they can’t be part of a government structure, not from within and not from outside.”
Lieberman also said that he seeks a Zionist coalition, stating that ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, which consider themselves as part of the right-wing bloc and back Netanyahu, are not Zionist.
“The term right-wing bloc grates on me. [Shas and UTJ] have no connection with the right, it’s an ultra-Orthodox bloc. Netanyahu has lost any connection with the right,” Lieberman said, hinting at the fact the Shas and UTJ have said they would recommend Netanyahu to the president.
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/lieberman-says-netanyahu-s-political-career-is-over-he-can-no-longer-be-pm-1.8561967
It would appear the only path to a majority Israeli coalition is for Likud to join Benny Gantz’s grouping, ditching the religious nutters and, to ensure stability, Bibi Netanyahu.
“According to the official February jobs report, there were 273,000 jobs created that month, and an unemployment rate of just 3.5%.”…
I think that the 2008 GFC also struck when unemployment was at a minimum…
Is the USA creating fake employment to be followed by real unemployment?
“The economy has been Trump’s great asset. In my opinion, it’s the only reason he has a realistic chance of re-election.”…
A fake “great asset”. Trump has been boasting about the share market which indeed went overdrive since his election… a boost that we are already seeing it’s being followed by a bust… Trump is not very intelligent, he just doesn’t get the boom-and-bust dynamics inherent to a Neoliberal system. He thought that it was going to be a long boom all the way… reality will take him crashing down.
I was hoping for a Warren selection, but I am happy with Biden, provided that he is smart with his choice of VP… Hey Joe, Elizabeth would make a perfect VP for you!
This Swayable poll of the 4 States scheduled to vote today is grim for Bernie..
Full Topline Results
Arizona
Joe Biden 52.5
Bernie Sanders 28.6
Other 18.0
Tulsi Gabbard 1.0
N = 1,167 MOE = 5.0
Florida
Joe Biden 63.5
Bernie Sanders 24.9
Other 9.7
Tulsi Gabbard 1.9
N = 4,035 MOE = 2.0
Illinois
Joe Biden 63.0
Bernie Sanders 27.7
Other 6.8
Tulsi Gabbard 2.5
N = 1,861 MOE = 3.0
Ohio
Joe Biden 65.7
Bernie Sanders 23.8
Tulsi Gabbard 6.1
Other 4.4
N = 2,027 MOE = 3.0
https://swayable.com/insights/democratic-primaries-2020-march-17-states
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ohio-seeks-postponement-of-tuesday-primary-as-coronavirus-fears-spread/2020/03/16/66a43cdc-67b5-11ea-b313-df458622c2cc_story.html
The silver lining of covid19 in America is that Bernie not fucking right off right now will be lost in the static over the next few months.
The election may now likely be a contest between the omnishambles of Trump and a promise of a return to sanity with a government that actually cares if nothing else. With the way things are panning out right now that should be more than enough to turf trump and probably win most of the contestable down ballot races. Especially with Bloomberg’s money focusing on senate races and the all important electoral commissioner races around the country.
Ohio was postponed in the early hours of morning there after a Ohio Supreme court ruling enforcing the governors call. I suspect some polling booths didn’t get the message and still opened.
Where’s Clem? Where’s Firefly? Where’s Nicholas?
Anybody to keep the red flag flying?
“Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer we’ll keep the red flag flying here”
Tap. tap. Hello?
…
Quitters.
A Secret Service detail has been assigned to Joe Biden which means they’ve already decided he’s the Democrat’s nominee.
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/surest-sign-joe-biden-is-the-nominee/26502/
Biden even doing well in Latino counties in Florida.
I doubt Biden will choose Warren as his running mate. She tacks too far to the left (Biden will want to run a centrist campaign), and is a highly divisive figure (even within the Dem party). As a Senator from Massachusetts, she adds nothing to the ticket from an electoral college standpoint.
Biden does well at scripted events, where he gets to play the statesman. As a campaigner, he tends to flail around at rallies. Trump thrives at rallies, and his base loves them. With Covid19 shutting down gatherings of all types, this has to benefit Biden.
Kakuru – Warren is little chance of being Biden’s VP choice – she too old for a start, and you are correct to note that she is seen as a divisive figure. Biden will be running big on the “unity” theme, and he won’t want his Veep to be a distraction from that. Warren would, I think, be a decent cabinet pick, but Biden has to win the election first. It would not surprise me to see a President Biden tap several of his erstwhile primary opponents for cabinet gigs, such as Buttigieg, Warren, Harris, Klobuchar O’Rourke, and Booker. (You’ll note no Sanders on that list, but Bernie is not really a team player, and I suspect that he wouldn’t be interested.)
Biden will likely choose one of the following women as running mate:
Sen Kamala Harris (CA)
Sen Amy Klobuchar (MN)
Stacey Abrams (GA)
Gov Michael Lujan Grisham (NM)
Gov Gretchen Whitmer (MI)
My guess is that it’s between Harris and Klobuchar, as I suspect the others are not well-known enough on the national stage, and people will want to know more about the VP choice of a 77-year-old nominee.
Hugoaugogo,
In the assessment of Jennifer Rubin, Stacey Abrams is a non starter as a VP choice for Biden because she hasn’t had any governing experience yet.
Bernie’s embrace of Fidel went down like faux Tex-Mex cuisine in Miami
Danama Papers @ #12 Wednesday, March 18th, 2020 – 11:40 am
Doesn’t he automatically get one for life as a former Vice President?
sprocket_ @ #17 Wednesday, March 18th, 2020 – 12:56 pm
It’s the embrace of Castro’s ideology by Sanders that is the problem. Don’t forget that it was the Obama Administration that opened the door between Cuba and America.
Kakuru @ #14 Wednesday, March 18th, 2020 – 8:52 am
Allowing thousands of Trump supporters to congregate together at one of his rallies would help Biden a lot more.
C@tmomma @ #18 Wednesday, March 18th, 2020 – 9:57 am
Apparently not.
Danama Papers
“Allowing thousands of Trump supporters to congregate together at one of his rallies would help Biden a lot more.”
Good point. And ironic, considering Trump’s support for social Darwinism.
My understanding is that ex-Presidents get secret service protection for life, but for VPs it’s only about 6 months.
Kakuru:
I don’t think the data bears out your contention that Warren is a “highly divisive figure” within the Democratic party – among the Democratic Primary electorate she consistently had the highest favourability ratings of the 2020 candidates.
I do think it’s doubtful that Biden would pick her as running mate though, if for no other reason than there is some personal animosity between them that goes beyond policy differences.
Agreed, but as you also mention, a crisis should also be a huge benefit to an incumbent. He should have followed Leadership in a Crisis 101 from the start, but was too worried about the economy.
I love these ads from life-long Republicans who hate Trump.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gJgmkWJ6es
Tulusi – who is still actually running for the nomination – is finishing behind folk who quit weeks ago across all states today.
Go Tulusi!
caf
“I don’t think the data bears out your contention that Warren is a “highly divisive figure” within the Democratic party”
Warren is not overly popular in her home state of Mass, a very blue state. For a Democrat, Warren underperformed in the most recent Senate election.
Honestly, as much as I love Elizabeth Warren (she was my tied second choice with Castro), I don’t see anything she brings to the ticket, except as a consolation prize to her fans (which isn’t really a big gain for Biden.) She’s in her 70s herself, which doesn’t help allay the issues that a 78 year-old candidate brings, she doesn’t bring any geographic balance and, even though she’s to the left of Biden, Biden isn’t really too far to the right (despite protests from the usual idiots – he fits comfortably in the liberal mould.) And before anyone mentions it, no, she won’t do anything for the Bernie or Busters. They hate her too.
What Biden needs is someone to balance out his perceived weaknesses. He needs somebody younger (but experienced or prepared enough for the role), who is a woman (to decrease the frustration women voters have felt since 2016) – which Biden has already confirmed will happen – and, if not a person of colour, has a strong connection to those communities.
Kamala Harris would be my first choice. Outside of the leftist baby “she’s a cop!” whining, she’s very liberal, excites many voters and was probably the one whose potential for the 2020 primaries was most robbed by Biden entering. I’ve also heard people comparing her to Obama, which would be a delightful allusion on a ticket with Biden. But I am biased here (Harris was my #1 pick) and I am not sure she’d want to end her still early career early on the Vice Presidency (especially if it never amounts to the Presidency in the end) when she could maybe run in her own right again in one of many elections in the future.
There are honestly plenty of good options out there and not every one of them have been talked about. Stacey Abrams is one (although I note she might be considered a little lightweight because of lack of federal/statewide office – but she balances that with having a big state career and huge support among southern African Americans). Catherine Cortez-Masto is another name to throw out there if you’re looking at Latinx support instead. There are no doubt plenty of other great names that may be less well known who’d also be suitable for the job, who I am sure Biden’s people are already in the process of shortlisting and vetting.
As for the Secret Service, they provide lifetime security for former presidents, unless said president requests they stop (as Nixon did in 1985.) I don’t know if removed presidents have that privilege. A lot of other post-presidency privileges such as the pension are denied to removed presidents (note: removed presidents are those impeached and removed, not those who lost re-election.) I recall they changed it for a while to make it for only 10 years for former presidents but I believe they changed it back.
Former vice presidents get no such service. Candidates for president and VP only get it when they are presumptively or confirmed as the nominee and the service stops immediately if they have presumably lost (i.e. they don’t need to wait for the Electoral College or the Congressional Count if it’s obvious on the night) and obviously continues through if they’ve won.
On the subject of Veeps, this quote from “Bingo” Bob (played by Gary Cole) in The West Wing is worth remembering:
Love a good West Wing quote – especially from a character played by Gary Cole (an actor who IMO is enjoyable in every role he plays.)
I can also pull out some real historic quotes about what people think about the Vice Presidency (mostly from people who held the office at one point) that share similar sentiment.
Mind you, they’re pre-Mondale and a lot of people consider the Mondale Vice Presidency the point where the role became a lot more meatier.
Does anyone know why Tulsi Gabbard is still persisting with running in the Primaries? She’d have next to no supporter base, volunteers to man her campaign, or donors. So, why, and just as importantly, how, is she continuing to go on?
Never mind Gabbard. Why is Bernie still in the race?
Confessions @ #33 Wednesday, March 18th, 2020 – 9:09 pm
True dat. 🙂
I agree that it’s time for Bernie to bow out. First of all, he really can’t win from here – he’s falling further behind with every vote, and the states coming up don’t favour him at all. Second, COVID-19 will dominate everything from now until at least the Conventions, both in terms of the news cycle, and in regard to the practicalities of voting (four states have already put back their polling days, for example). If Sanders pulled out now, it would allow cover for the relevant Governors to cancel their primaries, which is probably what should happen from a public health standpoint. In any event, the virus is concentrating the minds of voters, who probably now want someone competent and statesmanlike, and aren’t too fussed about smashing the system (Biden’s slogan of “results not revolution” is really resonating now). Third, Sanders does his cause no favours by staying in, as he is really just relegated to nuisance value. If we wants any leverage in the Democratic Party platform, right now is likely as good as it gets for him and his much vaunted movement. Fourth, given that we now all know who the Democratic candidate will be, people aren’t paying much attention to Bernie any more.
It’s time to pivot toward the general election. Sanders keeps saying that the most important thing is getting rid of Trump (and he’s correct in that assessment), so now is the time for him to bow to the inevitable. With Georgia deferring, there’s only Alaska, Hawaii, Wisconsin and Wyoming voting before the Amtrak primary (Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania & Rhode Island) on 28th April.
Time to face facts, Bernie. It’s over.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/03/16/coronavirus-debate-trump-would-crush-sanders-election-column/5055331002/
Sanders needs to accept reality and bow out. That he hasn’t done so after today suggests that he is simply hanging on to try to wreak havoc on Biden’s candidacy. This will only benefit Trump’s re-election.
Rational Leftist @ #31 Wednesday, March 18th, 2020 – 5:54 pm
Seconded.
Seems that Sanders might just be seeing the writing on the wall.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/18/bernie-sanders-assess-campaign-after-losses-135395
Some musing over Biden’s possible VP choices.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/17/bidens-top-12-running-mates-ranked-134256#431
Kakuru:
I think that’s pretty thin gruel to hang a claim of “highly divisive figure” on, particularly when we have extensive polling of Democrats across the country indicating otherwise.
Caf –
I like Warren (she was my choice back when the voting started), but I think she’d be a poor VP choice for Biden. For a start, she’s 70, and when your main nominee is 77, you probably want someone in their 50s. She also doesn’t bring much to the ticket – New England is already a gimme for Dems, and given the animosity between her and Sanders, it’s also unlikely she’d be much of a magnet for hard-core progressives. She’s also relatively divisive in the wider community (I agree less so among Democrats generally), and Biden will be running as the consensus, unity candidate, and he won’t want his Veep to be detracting from that. But while VP is probably off the table, Warren would be a good cabinet choice, like Treasury or AG.
caf
“I think that’s pretty thin gruel to hang a claim of “highly divisive figure” on, particularly when we have extensive polling of Democrats across the country indicating otherwise.”
Fair enough. But anecdotally, she does turn off a lot of Democrats. She’s even pissed off a lot of Sanders supporters.
But even if she does have high approval ratings within the Dem base, that counts for very little in a general election.
Hmm?
Kakuru @ #42 Thursday, March 19th, 2020 – 8:43 am
Then by extension, high Democratic turnout in favour of Biden in the primaries must also count for very little in a general election.
And no, this is not an anti-Biden post. Along with everyone else here I want to see Trump turfed out, but it cannot be guaranteed no matter who the Democrat nominee is.
A landslide victory in the primaries in states that will never turn blue is a pyrrhic victory at best.
And I repeat, this is not an anti-Biden post. Just facing up to reality.
I’m a bit veep-sceptical. I don’t think VP choice really changes much except maybe in the VP’s home state.
People don’t vote for Vice Presidents. The point of the selection is to balance the top of the ticket by trying to neutralise a shortcoming of the presidential candidate.
Trump didn’t choose Pence because he wanted Indiana (a deep red state already), he did so because he wanted to signal to the Republican base (particularly the ultraconservative “Never Trumpers” who rallied behind Cruz) that, despite being a cosmopolitan New Yorker who has rubbed shoulders with many liberals in the past and doesn’t exactly live a wholesome lifestyle, he is completely on board with their agenda.
Likewise, Obama didn’t choose Biden because he wanted Delaware (a deep blue state), he did so because he wanted an experienced Senator with a strong foreign policy record to balance out the negatives of his perceived youth and inexperience.
Rational Leftist @ #46 Thursday, March 19th, 2020 – 6:15 pm
No, but there’s no doubt that Sarah Palin cost John McCain more than just a few votes. The choice of running mate speaks volumes about the judgement of the main candidate.
Two US developments:
First, the jobless claims for the week ending March 14 (last Sat) showed a 70,000 jump from 211k to 281k. The virus is already damaging US economic health.
https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20200480.pdf
Second, two Republican federal senators – North Carolina’s Richard Burr and Georgia’s Kelly Loeffler – have been accused of insider trading after they dumped shares following a confidential coronavirus briefing in mid-February, before the stock market started tanking.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/03/19/reports-burr-loeffler-sold-stocks-ahead-coronavirus-marketcrash/2882006001/
“ I’m a bit veep-sceptical. I don’t think VP choice really changes much except maybe in the VP’s home state”
Generally I tend to agree with this assessment. However, IMO there are three things that are against that particular proposition this year:
1. With the last three ‘viable’ candidates to be President between 2021 and 2025 being men in their mid to late 70s – each with their own health risks – I’d say that the VEEP choice could well be a real voting factor.
2. Further, after the ‘Prime Ministership’ of Dick Chaney, it has been demonstrated that the holder of the office can actually wield real power.
3. The pathway to the Whitehouse via the electoral college is very narrow. In hindsight, Clinton chose a fairly weak and un-relatable running mate to be her point man in the rust belt. Biden has strong credentials in many demographics in the swing states, but he’s still old, pale and stale: He needs a young ‘anointed one’ to really energise the right folk in the right areas to come out to vote. While Klobuchar isn’t from a rust belt state, Minnesota is ‘right next door’ and the voting shy in the rust belt might find her heartland ‘Minnesota nice’ stick relatable. For all her strengths, I don’t know what Harris brings to the table as a Veep nominee. California. Bossy prosecutor. Hmm. Stacey Adams might work, but she has no real experience.
Wanna throw another name out there for VP: Susan Rice. She’s a 55 year-old woman of colour who is extremely experienced in foreign policy and linked to the policies of the Obama White House. While Biden doesn’t need an experienced person as balance, there is no doubt that, if something happened to Biden and she had to assume the presidency, that she’d be able to do it. Downside is 1) She’s not that exciting and 2) She has no experience campaigning for office and may not be interested in holding any elected office. Not my first pick but certainly one to consider. If not VP, I’d put her up there as a good shot for Secretary of State.