EMRS: Liberal 43, Labor 34, Greens 12 in Tasmania

The first Tasmanian state poll since Peter Gutwein became Premier finds the Liberals still looking strong, despite the evident popularity of Labor leader Rebecca White.

The latest EMRS poll of state voting intention in Tasmania, following shortly after Will Hodgman’s succession by Peter Gutwein as Premier, records the Liberals on 43% (down one), Labor on 34% (up three) and the Greens on 12%. The poll appears roughly quarterly, but previous polls in November and December were for some reason not published at the time. The poll was conducted by phone from a sample of 1000 between March 3 and 10. By Kevin Bonham’s reckoning, the Liberals would likely retain a bare parliamentary majority on these numbers. Bonham also notes there have been methodological changes with the poll, including changes to weightings and a greater use of mobile rather than landline phones, which may have addressed the pollster’s long-standing tendency to overstate support for the Greens. The poll also suggests Labor’s Rebecca White is more popular than her party’s standing suggests, crediting her with a 41-39 lead over Gutwein as preferred premier, after she led Hodgman by 43-42 in December.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

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