The latest EMRS poll of state voting intention in Tasmania, following shortly after Will Hodgman’s succession by Peter Gutwein as Premier, records the Liberals on 43% (down one), Labor on 34% (up three) and the Greens on 12%. The poll appears roughly quarterly, but previous polls in November and December were for some reason not published at the time. The poll was conducted by phone from a sample of 1000 between March 3 and 10. By Kevin Bonham’s reckoning, the Liberals would likely retain a bare parliamentary majority on these numbers. Bonham also notes there have been methodological changes with the poll, including changes to weightings and a greater use of mobile rather than landline phones, which may have addressed the pollster’s long-standing tendency to overstate support for the Greens. The poll also suggests Labor’s Rebecca White is more popular than her party’s standing suggests, crediting her with a 41-39 lead over Gutwein as preferred premier, after she led Hodgman by 43-42 in December.
The first Tasmanian state poll since Peter Gutwein became Premier finds the Liberals still looking strong, despite the evident popularity of Labor leader Rebecca White.