Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll has both major parties up on the primary vote, Scott Morrison’s standing recovering somewhat, and generally positive results for federal and state governments on handling of coronavirus.

For all that our world may have changed over the past three weeks, Newspoll has not: The Australian reports the latest result has Labor’s lead steady at 51-49. There has, however, been primary vote movement in favour of the major parties, with both up by two points: the Coalition to 40%, Labor to 36%. The Greens are down one to 12%, One Nation unchanged on 4% and others down three to 8%.

As with Essential Research, Scott Morrison has recovered somewhat from his post-bushfire slump, with his approval rating up three to 41% and disapproval down five to 53%. He now holds a 42-38 lead over Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister, who led 41-40 last time. Albanese’s net rating has also improved, his approval rating up one to 40% (The Australian report says down three, but I believe it has its wires crossed from the preferred prime minister movement) and disapproval down four to 40%.

In other findings, 75% support the government’s decision to abandon a budget surplus in favour of economic stimulus; 51% believe the federal government has managed preparedness for the crisis well; 66% are satisfied with federal and state government efforts to inform the public about the virus; but only 47% feel the same way about managing its economic impact.

UPDATE: The Australian’s reportage rather downplays the fact, but the poll found only 33% were satisfied with the economic response of governments (the question emphasised “both federal and state”) to the coronavirus outbreak, with 47% dissatisfied. The 75% rating in favour of stimulus did not relate specifically to the government’s policy, but to the general notion that “the Morrison government should provide a stimulus package to safeguard the economy”, with only 14% favouring the alternative option that it “should prioritise its promise to deliver a budget surplus”.

For the other questions, 76% of respondents were worried about the economic impact of the outbreak, versus only 20% for confident; 51% were worried, and 47% confident, about the preparedness of the public health system, for which 51% were satisified with the federal and state government response and 33% dissatisfied; and 63% were confident, and 35% worried, about “the amount of information available to Australians about how to protect themselves”, for which 65% were satisfied and 28% dissatisfied with the federal and state government response.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1501.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,631 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. CC

    That same study has figures for mild/severe/critical which don’t seem to be replicated here as best we know.

    [Around 20% of cases require hospitalization, 5% of cases require the Intensive Care Unit (ICU), and around 2.5% require very intensive help, with items such as ventilators or ECMO (extra-corporeal oxygenation).]

    At what point statistically do we get reliable estimates on these classifications?

  4. Johnson the Bloviator, told by scientists that he is going to kill 25o,000 Brits, belatedly changes his mind on herd immunity.

    Out.Of.His.Depth.

  5. Cud Chewer

    But a pro-active minister would enquire if a treatment was even possible.
    Makes me wonder about Lib priorities.

  8. This week I received a national award. It relates to a small space of technical and artistic excellence.
    But, truth to tell, it was as gall and wormwood to the taste.

    The Virus is certainly changing perspectives very, very quickly.

  10. @10NewsFirst
    · 22m
    The newly-formed National Cabinet, chaired by the Prime Minister, is mapping out the next steps for dealing with the #coronavirus pandemic tonight. On the agenda will be protecting Australia’s local economy for years to come. | @vanOnselenP #COVID19au #CoronavirusOutbreak #auspol

    …

    @SophiaMcGrane
    ·
    3m
    that sounds ominous.. when a Conservative govt says ‘protecting’ the economy that usually means lashings of austerity with a triple serve of trickle down

  11. Pegasus @ #1328 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 5:09 pm

    Email from Victorian Greens Ellen Sandell:

    “I’m sorry to email you with bad news, especially when the world is facing very uncertain times right now, but…

    Premier Daniel Andrews has just announced he will lift Victoria’s ban on onshore gas drilling.

    Yep, you heard that right. Victoria is now open for big gas companies to drill our farmland and precious places, and further destroy our climate.

    The timing of this announcement is a very low act. Daniel Andrews and Victorian Labor are sneaking it through while everyone is busy coping with COVID-19.

    Right now, COVID-19 is everybody’s focus – as it should be. But in the months, years and decades to come, the decisions made today will have a profound impact on our climate and the planet.
    :::
    What’s more – Premier Andrews is trying to convince people this decision is okay because he’s banned ‘fracking’ (a particularly destructive form of gas drilling). We fought long and hard for the fracking ban, and we’re pleased it’s happening, but the decision to open up ‘conventional’ gas drilling across the state is still horrendous.

    ‘Conventional’ gas drilling has been given the green light to proceed across Gippsland and south west Victoria from July 2021. Conventional drilling is not fracking, but it’s still a destructive, extractive practice that will fuel the climate emergency and pose risks to water, land and wildlife.

    Today’s decision to allow new gas drilling shows we must stay active and engaged in our fight for climate justice, even as we also grapple with the developing COVID-19 situation.
    In the coming weeks and months my Greens colleagues and I will be in regular contact with updates about both COVID-19 and our ongoing work for climate justice.

    Now, more than ever, we must stay connected as a community, driven by our shared vision for a safe and healthy future, for all of us and our planet.”

    The Greens always turn a reasonable compromise in to a whinge for perfection.

  12. Pegasus @ #1346 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 5:36 pm

    John Menadue – Democratic Renewal

    https://johnmenadue.com/john-menadue-democratic-renewal-3/

    Many Australians are sick and tired of politics and politicians .The situation is worsening .The community is deserting the major political parties in droves.
    :::
    I have written many times about the collapse of trust in business, the banks, churches and the media. But our immediate concern must surely be the failure of our political institutions, politicians and the urgent need for political reform.

    With unfettered capitalism, democracy is losing it’s appeal. The two often seem linked.The failure of capitalism is eroding confidence in democracy . People around the world feel alienated and are concluding that the ‘system’ may be working well for a few but not the many. ‘Strong leaders’ are responding with corrosive but appealing messages.
    :::
    Politics is about how power is exercised and for whose benefit. It is a noble calling and disparaged too much, particularly by those who want untrammelled private power for themselves. But to change the way our institutions,both Church and State operate, faces one major obstacle – the power of those who benefit from the present system. Insiders want to hang on to power. That is very true of our media ,churches and major political parties. They are run by insiders for the benefit of insiders. They abuse their power.
    :::
    Unless the political parties broadly represent their voter constituencies, we will continue to tread the slippery road of personalities and political spin, rather than addressing the real issues and concerns of the community. While the major parties refuse to treat the community seriously and run from public discussion, their natural constituencies are disenfranchised. Those that are really enfranchised are a small group of party power brokers and voters in swinging electorates.
    :::
    Parliaments are in need of renovation. The cabinet and party machines dominate parliament. The executive has become arrogant. Question time is given over to hectoring and personal abuse.
    :::
    Decades of failure to keep promises have also taken an inevitable and heavy toll. Fairness, respect for others, openness, integrity and trust, are the glue that hold us together. A democratic and free society will remain free only if the virtues necessary for freedom are alive in our community. Democracy cannot be separated from public morality. The democratic project and institutions within it must be informed by what is right and true. Every society needs a moral compass.

    Moral behaviour is in the end about how our words and actions enhance human dignity and human flourishing. Robust and well functioning institutions are an important means to that end.

    Latest polls show a swing back to the major parties. So, the whole premise of this rant is incorrect and outdated.

  13. Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 5:48 pm

    This week I received a national award. It relates to a small space of technical and artistic excellence.
    _____________
    Was it for list making?

  14. On the agenda will be protecting Australia’s local economy for years to come.

    Not much good to me if I’m dead.

    Economies can be rebuilt. But if it’s your only frame of reference I guess the economy comes first.

  15. lizzie @ #1360 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 5:53 pm

    @10NewsFirst
    · 22m
    The newly-formed National Cabinet, chaired by the Prime Minister, is mapping out the next steps for dealing with the #coronavirus pandemic tonight. On the agenda will be protecting Australia’s local economy for years to come. | @vanOnselenP #COVID19au #CoronavirusOutbreak #auspol

    …

    @SophiaMcGrane
    ·
    3m
    that sounds ominous.. when a Conservative govt says ‘protecting’ the economy that usually means lashings of austerity with a triple serve of trickle down

    It also means they are already up to their armpits in ‘requests’ for bailouts from business ‘mates’ everywhere.

    Yesterday we saw the utter arrogance and sense of entitlement from that ARL bloke – and thats the tip of the iceberg.

    The profits have already been privatised (and tax avoided) now the brown stuff is hitting the fan the tune to socialise the losses and protect the wealthy and the ‘connected’ will be broadcast.

    One way crony so called capitalism on show.

    Adam Smith will be rolling in his grave – yet again.

    Just imagine the venom from the ‘mates’ who miss out.

  17. Boerwar @ #1354 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 5:42 pm

    Johnson the Bloviator, told by scientists that he is going to kill 25o,000 Brits, belatedly changes his mind on herd immunity.

    Out.Of.His.Depth.

    Pretty much the approach also still being taken by morrison – he just isn’t saying so quite clearly and no reason to believe he has or will change his mind.

    Its also the “cheapest” option. Particularly as it relates to the poor who generally haven’t vote LNP.

  18. Boerwar

    Johnson the Bloviator, told by scientists that he is going to kill 25o,000 Brits, belatedly changes his mind on herd immunity.

    Out.Of.His.Depth,

    He only changed his mind when it was pointed out that the disease was particularly keen on killing the strongest pro Brexit ‘demographic’

  19. France –

    Latest update:From midday 17 March, all travel to the EU and Schengen Area is banned for 30 days. If you’re in France and wish to leave, be aware commercial flights are increasingly limited.

    If you decide to return to Australia, we recommend you do so by commercial means as soon as possible.

    Also from midday 17 March, all non-essential movement outdoors is prohibited for 15 days across France.

    Visits to the supermarket, to seek medical assistance, commutes to and from work and other essential movement are excluded, but you’re strongly urged to keep these to a minimum.

    Non-essential public venues, including restaurants, cafes, cinemas and discos are closed indefinitely. Travel to certain areas within France is limited and large events are banned. Australians in France requiring emergency medical assistance should dial 15 for COVID-19-related assistance. Follow the advice of local authorities.

    https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/destinations/europe/france

  20. This is starting to look like World War 2, the great Depression and Spanish Flu all wrapped together.
    Steps that should be taken and taken very quickly –
    – Rationing – This will stop the panic buying and control inflation – Not all items but Meat, Eggs, Toilet Paper etc. which people are stockpiling. And I mean ration books – not limits in shops. It took a few weeks to put in place in 1940, surely we can do better now.
    – End the black market – If it is not already happening, it will be – People will be flogging groceries for inflated prices. This kind of profiteering is unconscionable. And if they stop people scalping tickets on Gumtree, they can do this.
    Call up the community groups – We have groups that will be able to support the health network – St John Ambulance can help with the sick. Other groups can help support relatives etc. and ensure that food and supplies are making it to everyone.

  22. Osman Faruqi
    @oz_f
    ·
    42s
    Love that even in a crisis the government can’t resist dropping exclusives about *how we deal with the crisis* to News Corp journos. Just drop the shitty political media strategy and give us daily updates.

  23. Wage subsidies to business to support their employees is all good and well for permanent full and part time staff.

    What about those businesses in sectors such as tourism, hospitality and arts/ music for example. Sectors of the economy that rely overwhelmingly on casual labor. Why would a business go through the hassle of applying for wage subsidies to keep on casuals if they have no customers and no need for staff and it is far easier to give them the flick knowing full well that when business picks up again they will have a huge pool of ready and willing casuals to tap into ?

    The government needs to recognise that giving money directly to tourism, hospitality etc businesses will do nothing to help workers in those industries survive over coming months.

    If a business has no trade , no customers and mainly casual staff guess what will be the first ongoing “ cost” to be thrown overboard ?

    Casual workers need direct income support and if not provided will be catastrophic for the social and economic well-being of Australia.

  24. ‘poroti says:
    Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 6:11 pm

    Boerwar

    Johnson the Bloviator, told by scientists that he is going to kill 25o,000 Brits, belatedly changes his mind on herd immunity.

    Out.Of.His.Depth,

    He only changed his mind when it was pointed out that the disease was particularly keen on killing the strongest pro Brexit ‘demographic’’

    haha

  26. Nick Xenophon representing the Army whistleblower is probably a good thing. He’s a wily bastard who can also drum up a feelgood crusade. So long as he doesn’t use it to try to restart his political career.

  27. Listening to the panel on the Drum seems like there is no help, guidance or plan for all the people loosing or are going to loose their jobs.

    Lousy LNP gov.

  28. The email from Coles indicated this would happen but my 2 home delivery orders have been cancelled.
    Means I as the carer in a pensioner couple will have to leave home by 6:30am on Friday . They had better have stock on the shelves of what I want.
    I contacted them earlier today and the operator indicated they would review my case.
    I have been a weekly orderer for 4 years or more.

  29. My daughter was just sent home last night 3 hours early from her bar job in entertainment. Bands booked just didn’t show up. She has no idea what’s next, just as well she doesn’t pay rent.

  30. It seems to me that the essential economic problem is insoluble: you can’t create an equivalent pretend economy to replace the real economy while the real economy takes some time off because of the Virus.

  33. In the same way I seek shade in the bush I now seek automatic doors and toilets in shopping centres where I do not have to touch doors.

    “CANBERRA, Tuesday:
    An elderly ACT man was arrested today in a Belconnen shopping mall. He is being questioned by police regarding numerous reports that he had been seen loitering outside public lavatories ‘looking for automatic doors’…”

  36. @10NewsFirst
    · 22m
    The newly-formed National Cabinet, chaired by the Prime Minister, is mapping out the next steps for dealing with the #coronavirus pandemic tonight. On the agenda will be protecting Australia’s local economy for years to come. | @vanOnselenP #COVID19au #CoronavirusOutbreak #auspol

    Sounds like a local version of MAGA.

    We’re hearing an awful lot from Scott Gunner Morrison. He’s gunna do this and gunna do that but the main thing he’s doing is producing bovine manure.

  38. Bushfire Bill says:
    Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 6:34 pm
    In the same way I seek shade in the bush I now seek automatic doors and toilets in shopping centres where I do not have to touch doors.
    CANBERRA, Tuesday:
    An elderly ACT man was arrested today in a Belconnen shopping mall. He is being questioned by police regarding numerous reports that he had been seen loitering outside public lavatories “looking for automatic doors”…

    I don’t live near Belconnen mall but the other big shopping centres have been rebuilding the toilets to have no door and a winding passage so people can’t see inside. That helps with not having to touch a door handle on the way out.

  39. When you consider the unemployment rate plus underemployment rate is already around 13% plus even before the shit hits the fan the consequences of poorly directed stimulus on the social and economic well-being of Australia will be huge.

    Trickle up economics should be the new black but sadly I do not hold much hope.

  40. Katharine Murphy
    @murpharoo
    ·
    21m
    The Labor senators Tony Sheldon and Jenny McAllister are now self-isolating after having come into contact with Andrew Bragg at the parliamentary committee hearing on March 9. Rex Patrick is doing the same #auspol #COVIDー19

  42. Nobel infectious diseases laureate, Professor Doherty, now on The Drum. This is an expert I’m happy to listen to.

    He speaks clearly and concisely. No techno-babble.

  44. The Philippines Did It. Now Smaller Markets May Follow Shutdown

    In their war against the coronavirus and foreigners’ exodus, smaller markets might follow the Philippines in shutting down their bourses, market participants say.

    The nation’s move to close its $188 billion equity market until Thursday has already been followed by Sri Lanka. In both cases, the reason given for the closure is to help contain the spread of the coronavirus, which has already infected more than 174,000 globally and killed 7,000.

    Shutting markets during times of crisis is extremely rare but not without precedents. America’s stock market closed for almost a week after the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001, while Hong Kong halted trading in the wake of the Black Monday crash in 1987. Greece shut its stock market for about five weeks in 2015.

    “There have to be plans similar in nature by regional markets” where new infections are gathering pace, said Sameer Kalra, founder of Target Investing in Mumbai. “The move is good to contain the virus spread since exchange buildings are hugely populated areas, but it may put a lot of jobs at risk.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com//news/articles/2020-03-17/the-philippines-did-it-now-smaller-markets-may-follow-shutdown?srnd=markets-vp

  45. Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 6:36 pm
    BB
    haha
    Morrison has yet to abandon Kirribilli and flee to the ACT to get away from Berejiklian’s germfest.

    A news item a few days ago said he was coming to Canberra but unsure whether to leave the wife and kids in Sydney. He must assume they are more resistant to coronavirus than himself.

  46. President Donald Trump for the first time on his Twitter feed used the phrase “Chinese Virus,” stepping up friction between the world’s two biggest economies as each tries to deflect blame for a deadly pandemic.

    Trump, who has previously called the disease a “foreign virus,” tweeted on Tuesday: “The United States will be powerfully supporting those industries, like Airlines and others, that are particularly affected by the Chinese Virus.” Trump has previously retweeted a supporter who called it a “China virus.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-17/trump-s-chinese-virus-tweet-adds-fuel-to-fire-with-beijing?srnd=premium-asia

  48. Woo-hoo!

    Professor Doherty is asked to comment on ScoMo and Murphy’s references to “herd immunity”.

    His reply is a classic…

    “Do you want to talk about politics, or about medical issues?”

  49. Boerwar @ #1381 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 6:33 pm

    mh
    The GFC unemployment rate got to 6%. In my guess, the CV unemployment rate is going to go way beyond that.

    Maybe even way beyond the Unemployment Rate during ‘the Recession we had to have’. It’s starting to feel like that time all over again to me. Except the difference is that this time good and well-run businesses are not going to pull through and escape intact on the other side. COVID-19 is indiscriminate.

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