The Advertiser has a YouGov Galaxy poll of state voting intention in South Australia ($), which produces the (to me at least) surprising result that Labor holds a 53-47 lead over Steven Marshall’s first-term Liberal government, compared with the 51.9-48.1 Liberal winning margin in 2018. The primary votes are Liberal 39%, Labor 38%, Greens 11% and SA Best 7%, though I imagine the latter will be contesting a limited range of seats at best. At the 2018 election, the primary votes were Liberal 38.0%, Labor 32.8%, Greens 6.7% and SA Best 14.1%. In the only previously published poll this term, conducted by YouGov Galaxy almost exactly a year ago, the Liberals led 52-48 from primary votes of Liberal 42%, Labor 37%, Greens 7% and SA Best 7%.
The new poll has Marshall with a bare 38-36 lead over Labor’s Peter Malinauskas as preferred premier, after leading 46-26 in last year’s poll. His personal ratings are 37% approval and 41% disapproval, while Malinauskas is at a remarkably strong 44% and 26% (there did not appear to be personal ratings in the poll a year ago). Twenty-five per cent of respondents felt South Australia was better off since the government came to power, compared with 33% for worse and 42% for about the same. The poll was conducted Friday to Wednesday from a sample of 856, suggesting a theoretical error margin of 3.4%.