For all that our world may have changed over the past three weeks, Newspoll has not: The Australian reports the latest result has Labor’s lead steady at 51-49. There has, however, been primary vote movement in favour of the major parties, with both up by two points: the Coalition to 40%, Labor to 36%. The Greens are down one to 12%, One Nation unchanged on 4% and others down three to 8%.
As with Essential Research, Scott Morrison has recovered somewhat from his post-bushfire slump, with his approval rating up three to 41% and disapproval down five to 53%. He now holds a 42-38 lead over Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister, who led 41-40 last time. Albanese’s net rating has also improved, his approval rating up one to 40% (The Australian report says down three, but I believe it has its wires crossed from the preferred prime minister movement) and disapproval down four to 40%.
In other findings, 75% support the government’s decision to abandon a budget surplus in favour of economic stimulus; 51% believe the federal government has managed preparedness for the crisis well; 66% are satisfied with federal and state government efforts to inform the public about the virus; but only 47% feel the same way about managing its economic impact.
UPDATE: The Australian’s reportage rather downplays the fact, but the poll found only 33% were satisfied with the economic response of governments (the question emphasised “both federal and state”) to the coronavirus outbreak, with 47% dissatisfied. The 75% rating in favour of stimulus did not relate specifically to the government’s policy, but to the general notion that “the Morrison government should provide a stimulus package to safeguard the economy”, with only 14% favouring the alternative option that it “should prioritise its promise to deliver a budget surplus”.
For the other questions, 76% of respondents were worried about the economic impact of the outbreak, versus only 20% for confident; 51% were worried, and 47% confident, about the preparedness of the public health system, for which 51% were satisified with the federal and state government response and 33% dissatisfied; and 63% were confident, and 35% worried, about “the amount of information available to Australians about how to protect themselves”, for which 65% were satisfied and 28% dissatisfied with the federal and state government response.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1501.
“Mexicanbeemersays:
Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 4:37 pm
Blobbitt
The response to climate change is contributing to the problem or transition pending on what side of the energy fence you sit. The market is slowly forcing change.”
Yes, I agree that the market is slowly causing change.
I think that following C19, there is going to be a massive need to get the economy moving again. That’s only going to happen by governments spending massive amounts of money, just like they would in a war.
Rather than having a war, they could spend the money of doing stuff that might be useful. Forcing the pace of the energy transition is one of those possible areas.
The Worldometer stats, if we can believe them, continue to make interesting reading.
I see some so-called experts in the media making statements such as “Italy is our future.” However, if you look at the column headed “Serious, Critical” – which I assume broadly to mean cases that need intensive care in a hospital – then over 8 per cent (1,851 out of 23,073) of Italy’s “active” cases are deemed “Serious Critical” whereas only 1 out of over 400 Australian cases is in this category.
When you compare Italy’s and Australia’s stats to those of other countries in the early to medium stages of virus spread, you find a wide variation. France is not far short of Italy’s situation in terms of the proportion of critical cases to active cases, but from an infection rate among the general population around half that of Italy’s. Spain and Norway both have a comparable proportion of the population infected to Italy, but with significantly lower proportions of critical cases.
Spain is struggling to deal with its critical cases, which is probably a combination of the capacity of the health care system, and also of the geographically-dispersed nature of the Spanish population and thereby its hospital system: a problem I suspect is also the case in Italy and France: for instance, in reading that article by the overwhelmed intensivist in the absolutely gorgeous town of Bergamo, it struck me that many countries – including Australia – wouldn’t even attempt to operate an ICU in a town of around 100,000 people which is only 60ks from a major city (Milan). I suspect a bit of underlying inefficiency in their health system, which might also have contributed towards the rapid spread of the disease in Italy, and from Italy to many other parts of the world (as the news tracking part of the Webometer Coronavirus page illustrates).
So are we heading towards becoming Italy and France and Spain, or are we heading in the direction of Norway, or perhaps even Singapore? The pessimistic among us are shouting “Italy, Italy”. But I’m a bit of an optimist: even though we have rather slipped up in getting our act together at the start, perhaps it all won’t end up being quite as bad as that.
I feel a movie about the Virus coming on: ‘Revenge of the Millenniels!’
Boerwar
Yes, my eyes seem to need a rub often
CC
[I’m going to assume that the number of real cases outnumbers the official figures 10-20 times.]
Why that range of multipliers?
That has the effect of making the death rate very small and the rate of serious cases (of which we know virtually nothing) very small as well.
‘meher baba says:
Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 4:46 pm
The Worldometer stats, if we can believe them, continue to make interesting reading.
I see some so-called experts in the media making statements such as “Italy is our future.” However, if you look at the column headed “Serious, Critical” – which I assume broadly to mean cases that need intensive care in a hospital – then over 8 per cent (1,851 out of 23,073) of Italy’s “active” cases are deemed “Serious Critical” whereas only 1 out of over 400 Australian cases is in this category. ‘
The discrepancy has been discussed previously. No-one appears to be quite sure why the Australian figure is ‘too’ low, based on the experience just about everywhere else.
The Italian stats are not like-for-like because they no longer test everyone who comes into contact with the Health System. You can arrive at Emergency, be sick as a dog, be over 65, and they send you home because there are no ICU beds for you. They don’t test you for the Virus either. No point. In other words the ‘critical’ percentages are off a false base.
poroti: “They are not just being shoved onto a plane and sent back . They are now under quarantine. Given what was outlined earlier it would be a ‘police assisted one”. After the quarantine period they are up for deportation and the consequences that flow from being deported.”
There seem to be two people from S-E Asia who have been quarantined ahead of being deported, but are these the same as the woman picked up from the Christchurch youth hostel who – at least according to the Guardian – has actually been deported?
https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/03/15/newspoll-51-49-labor-12/comment-page-26/#comment-3361667
Perhaps Karvelas and others can just stop inviting on talking points rather than in conversation pollyTICs like him …, as in firm but with manners.
Why waste precious air time, there’s already parliamentary question time, or ABC Q&A …
Jeff Sparrow
Coronavirus gives us a terrifying glimpse of the future – and highlights a chilling paradox
Capitalism must expand or lapse into crisis. But perpetual growth pits humanity against nature
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/17/coronavirus-gives-us-a-terrifying-glimpse-of-the-future-and-highlights-a-chilling-paradox
I wonder if just wearing gloves, any sort of gloves, would serve as a reminder to not touch your face or nose.
Got some old boxing gloves downstairs, but I don’t think I could hold a coffee with them. Maybe the batting gloves?
The cult of child abuse in all its glory…
So, how do you scratch an itch on your face without a nice sharp fingernail? I can’t quite get my elbow around to my face to do it. 😐
Peg
It is just as well the Greens don’t have an open-ended migration policy for Australia.
C
Your elbow is a fomite.
meher baba
Different one. Not sure what the story is re the woman. It was reported as if she was going to be sent back quick smart yet those other two are are being kept. Seems a bit odd.
Peg
Sparrow? sparrows? King James version, Matthew 10:
‘Whatever I tell you in the dark, speak in the light; and what you hear in the ear, preach on the housetops. And do not fear those who kill the body but cannot kill the soul. But rather fear Him who is able to destroy both soul and body in [h]hell. Are not two sparrows sold for a copper coin? And not one of them falls to the ground apart from your Father’s will. But the very hairs of your head are all numbered. Do not fear therefore; you are of more value than many sparrows.’
#EmmaGetsIt
It is hard to have any confidence when the Government and AMA seem to say there is no need to rush and pandemic specialists say hit it fast, early and hard!
@ meher baba: you are confusing quarantined due to being a new arrival with infected. No evidence that she’s the latter. The only evidence is that she was unlikely to comply with current New Zealand customs requirements.
I do think the requirements themselves are overkill, but such is the world we live in at the moment.
CC
As promised, a graph.
‘Simon says:
Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 5:02 pm
@ meher baba: you are confusing quarantined due to being a new arrival with infected. No evidence that she’s the latter. The only evidence is that she was unlikely to comply with current New Zealand customs requirements.
I do think the requirements themselves are overkill, but such is the world we live in at the moment.’
‘Over kill or under kill?’ that is the question.
Peg
The guy in Wuhan that brought the bat wasn’t living a capitalist life.
China is no hotbed of neoliberalism and is likely to remain as it is for the foreseeable future.
Rex Douglas @ #1317 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 5:01 pm
The news bulletins covering the supermarket brawls haven’t made as much of a deal about the “typical Aussie spirit” on display.
How ought one to celebrate a birthday at this pass in the nation’s destiny?
Boerwar @ #1324 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 5:05 pm
As if it’s your last!!!
Three new WA cases all people who arrived from overseas.
Can we divert all flights to Christmas Island….
shellbell @ #1305 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 3:49 pm
This article describes the logic. And other things too.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
Boerwar @ #1314 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 4:57 pm
So, elbow bumping as a greeting is out?
Email from Victorian Greens Ellen Sandell:
“I’m sorry to email you with bad news, especially when the world is facing very uncertain times right now, but…
Premier Daniel Andrews has just announced he will lift Victoria’s ban on onshore gas drilling.
Yep, you heard that right. Victoria is now open for big gas companies to drill our farmland and precious places, and further destroy our climate.
The timing of this announcement is a very low act. Daniel Andrews and Victorian Labor are sneaking it through while everyone is busy coping with COVID-19.
Right now, COVID-19 is everybody’s focus – as it should be. But in the months, years and decades to come, the decisions made today will have a profound impact on our climate and the planet.
:::
What’s more – Premier Andrews is trying to convince people this decision is okay because he’s banned ‘fracking’ (a particularly destructive form of gas drilling). We fought long and hard for the fracking ban, and we’re pleased it’s happening, but the decision to open up ‘conventional’ gas drilling across the state is still horrendous.
‘Conventional’ gas drilling has been given the green light to proceed across Gippsland and south west Victoria from July 2021. Conventional drilling is not fracking, but it’s still a destructive, extractive practice that will fuel the climate emergency and pose risks to water, land and wildlife.
Today’s decision to allow new gas drilling shows we must stay active and engaged in our fight for climate justice, even as we also grapple with the developing COVID-19 situation.
In the coming weeks and months my Greens colleagues and I will be in regular contact with updates about both COVID-19 and our ongoing work for climate justice.
Now, more than ever, we must stay connected as a community, driven by our shared vision for a safe and healthy future, for all of us and our planet.”
This is a very good summary by the WHO as to the differences between influenza and COVID-19:
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2
And instead of C-19 being 10 times more deadly than the flu, it’s actually 30-40 times more lethal.
shellbell: “That has the effect of making the death rate very small and the rate of serious cases (of which we know virtually nothing) very small as well.”
You’re pointing out a paradox that some of the harbingers of doom around the place (including on this forum) don’t seem fully to appreciate. I have people down here in Tassie seriously argue that there could already be up to 50,000 people infected in Tasmania. But my understanding is that none of the 7 publicly-identified cases is in an ICU which means either that, there are a large number of dying people currently not in hospital or else that, at least in its Tasmanian manifestation, coronavirus isn’t anywhere near as dangerous as even the normal flu.
The problem is not lots of undetected full-blown cases: it’s lots of emerging cases that haven’t manifested any symptoms yet but which mean that today’s 450 or so cases in Australia could inevitably blow out to several thousand within a week or two: even if, as of right now, governments were to put into place the most draconian social distancing rules imaginable.
And then the question becomes that of how many of those several thousand cases are going to require ICU treatment. And the answer to that question depends, in my view, on the demographic characteristics of the people who become infected.
In my view, the big question coming out of Italy is whether or not there has been significant spread of coronavirus within hospitals and aged care facilities: a development which, as far as I can see, hasn’t occurred to any great extent anywhere else (other than in Washington State in the US and, to a limited extent, in Sydney). The very high death rates we are seeing from Italy – which now exceed even those of Iran – are consistent with such a spread, which would explain the much higher death rates: due to the concentration of the old and chronically ill in those facilities.
Sparrow
‘But war is good for business – and saving the planet isn’t.’
No idea except to mouth extreme Left platitudes.
Tell that to the Germans and the Japanese at the end of WW2. They were trashed. TRASHED.
Losing wars is terrible for business.
Another outlier on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries is China’s rate of new cases. Practically zero. Depending on severity, the earlier you emerge from c19 the greater your advantage among your peers. It occurred to me that might be part of Britain’s strategy. Get through it fast, and damn the cost.
Xenophon acting for military whistleblower
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6683794/xenophon-acting-for-military-whistleblower/?cs=14231
mb
‘The very high death rates we are seeing from Italy – which now exceed even those of Iran – are consistent with such a spread, which would explain the much higher death rates: due to the concentration of the old and chronically ill in those facilities.’
They are not counting the peeps who obviously have the Virus that they are sending home. They are testing nobody out in the community.
Thus the very high death rates in Italy are partly an artefact of not counting the true base.
They are also a result of the ICU system being overwhelmed and lots of 65+ peeps being triaged out of ICU and thereafter dying for lack of oxygen or a septicemia storm in the vital organs.
Double whammy.
Mexicanbeemer @ #1288 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 3:03 pm
Only hurts the rich in the short-term, and not at a personal level.
They love a good recession or depression every so often. Floods the market with a wide range of cheap distressed assets, and offers yet another chance to further force down wages and conditions for the plebs.
If the rich can stay healthy, they are going to clean up.
No doubt including train loads of taxpayer funded bailouts.
It is sickeningly predictable. 🙁
Peg
The Greens spreading moral panic on every single issue gets you around 12% of the polling.
You guys need to move on to Plan B.
Whatever that might be.
Statisticians swing into action to measure growing impact of coronavirus
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6681285/statisticians-swing-into-action-to-measure-growing-impact-of-coronavirus/?cs=14225
new zealand’s response is discusseed at “the conversation”. -a.v.
https://theconversation.com/new-zealand-outstrips-australia-uk-and-us-with-12-billion-coronavirus-package-for-business-and-people-in-isolation-133789
peter martin, anu
Queensland testing on treatment for coronavirus needs funds. OK, so where is Hunt?
Climate Vse Corona Virus
https://theaimn.com/climate-vse-corona-virus/
Peg
That comment on climate change is flawed because it ignores that fossil fuel companies are coming under increasing pressure from both regulators and investors.
shellbell
The multiplier is motivated by this article.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
And in particular this graph.
Its only in retrospect that you can look backwards and infer the number of unreported cases there must have been in order to generate the numbers you are looking at now. You can see how China had a certain curve of reported cases, but with maths you can infer that the rise of real cases came first and reporting caught up with a lag.
Same thing is probably happening in Australia – we are also on the leading edge of the curve. And if you look at the numbers in that graph then we could be looking at a 10-20 times factor. Meaning real cases are 10-20 times presently reported.
In other words for there to be 400 reported cases today, the real number of infected people (given we are not testing everyone) could be in the thousands.
MB
[And then the question becomes that of how many of those several thousand cases are going to require ICU treatment. And the answer to that question depends, in my view, on the demographic characteristics of the people who become infected.]
Yes – the figures in NSW have the 50s as the highest % decile.
Presumably there will be soon enough cases to draw some statistical conclusions of our own.
Thanks LR
Really shows on log scale doesn’t it..
Beware of scams impersonating the government with advice on testing for COVID-19. These messages try to trick you into installing software that steals your banking details.
https://www.staysmartonline.gov.au/alert-service/covid-19-scam-messages-targeting-australians
(My daughter subscribes to the scam alert service)
John Menadue – Democratic Renewal
https://johnmenadue.com/john-menadue-democratic-renewal-3/
Why can’t stimulus money be spent on D Patterson’s research? Far more useful than anything else, I’d have thought.
lizzie it surprises me that they haven’t already phoned the Minister
Nice little tax-deductible convention, if you can get it. Or not, as the case may be:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/17/coronavirus-covid-19-australian-doctors-dentists-stuck-cruise-ship-coast-chile