Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll has both major parties up on the primary vote, Scott Morrison’s standing recovering somewhat, and generally positive results for federal and state governments on handling of coronavirus.

For all that our world may have changed over the past three weeks, Newspoll has not: The Australian reports the latest result has Labor’s lead steady at 51-49. There has, however, been primary vote movement in favour of the major parties, with both up by two points: the Coalition to 40%, Labor to 36%. The Greens are down one to 12%, One Nation unchanged on 4% and others down three to 8%.

As with Essential Research, Scott Morrison has recovered somewhat from his post-bushfire slump, with his approval rating up three to 41% and disapproval down five to 53%. He now holds a 42-38 lead over Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister, who led 41-40 last time. Albanese’s net rating has also improved, his approval rating up one to 40% (The Australian report says down three, but I believe it has its wires crossed from the preferred prime minister movement) and disapproval down four to 40%.

In other findings, 75% support the government’s decision to abandon a budget surplus in favour of economic stimulus; 51% believe the federal government has managed preparedness for the crisis well; 66% are satisfied with federal and state government efforts to inform the public about the virus; but only 47% feel the same way about managing its economic impact.

UPDATE: The Australian’s reportage rather downplays the fact, but the poll found only 33% were satisfied with the economic response of governments (the question emphasised “both federal and state”) to the coronavirus outbreak, with 47% dissatisfied. The 75% rating in favour of stimulus did not relate specifically to the government’s policy, but to the general notion that “the Morrison government should provide a stimulus package to safeguard the economy”, with only 14% favouring the alternative option that it “should prioritise its promise to deliver a budget surplus”.

For the other questions, 76% of respondents were worried about the economic impact of the outbreak, versus only 20% for confident; 51% were worried, and 47% confident, about the preparedness of the public health system, for which 51% were satisified with the federal and state government response and 33% dissatisfied; and 63% were confident, and 35% worried, about “the amount of information available to Australians about how to protect themselves”, for which 65% were satisfied and 28% dissatisfied with the federal and state government response.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1501.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,631 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. This mob have a different excuse every year for saying the same thing:

    CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC
    Employer groups call to delay annual review of minimum wage
    by Nick Bonyhady (Age headline)

  2. In the US :

    Katy Tur‏Verified account @KatyTurNBC · 1h1 hour ago

    Don’t read this if you want to sleep tonight

    White House Takes New Line After Dire Report on Death Toll

    Federal guidelines warned against gatherings of more than 10 people as a London report predicted high fatalities in the U.S. without drastic action.

    Sweeping new federal recommendations announced on Monday for Americans to sharply limit their activities appeared to draw on a dire scientific report warning that, without action by the government and individuals to slow the spread of coronavirus and suppress new cases, 2.2 million people in the United States could die.

    To curb the epidemic, there would need to be drastic restrictions on work, school and social gatherings for periods of time until a vaccine was available, which could take 18 months, according to the report, compiled by British researchers. They cautioned that such steps carried enormous costs that could also affect people’s health, but concluded they were “the only viable strategy at the current time.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/coronavirus-fatality-rate-white-house.html?referringSource=articleShare

  3. poroti: “No mucking about over the Tasman. New Zealand on Tuesday deported its first unruly traveller flouting the country’s mandatory 14-day self-isolation rule for almost all arrivals, the health ministry said. The tourist, who had checked into a backpackers hostel in the city of Christchurch, was removed from the accommodation by the police after officials learned she did not have clear self-isolation plans.”

    So this was someone whom, having let her into the country, they might well have forcibly quarantined themselves. But instead they have chosen to deport her on (I assume) a commercial flight, putting all the other passengers at risk: and quite possibly other people in the country to which she has been deported.

    So what we seem to be dealing with here is New Zealand irresponsibly deporting someone who they should have seen as their own responsibility?

    I’m struggling to remember, but wasn’t Ardern recently complaining about some other country somewhere doing this sort of thing.

  4. US futures were limit down yesterday, today they are limit up and ASX has had that tailwind and maybe RBA have started their version of QE based around buying bonds which can have a flowon to shares.

    ASX looks like closing up just under 300 points or 5.5%

  5. mn

    Adern gets it.

    It is time for 100% ruthlessness.

    It is not a time for feckless dicking around which we are getting from the Feds in Oz.

  6. ‘dave says:
    Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 4:08 pm

    US futures were limit down yesterday, today they are limit up and ASX has had that tailwind and maybe RBA have started their version of QE based around buying bonds which can have a flowon to shares.

    ASX looks like closing up just under 300 points or 5.5%’

    Ever increasing oceans of digital ‘paper’ chasing ever decreasing real stuff.

    What could possibly go wrong?

  7. phR

    They have finally got to the fundamental realization about the Virus that sooner or later all politicians grasp: the Virus is the Truth. It can’t be bought or sold or fixed.

  8. shellbell
    “Must’ve been a hell of a game of spin the bottle at Stanwell Tops”

    I assumed a vicious tussle over the bride’s garter.

  9. We’re just back from a shopping foray. Keeping the economy ticking over. Paint and spakfilla and winter vegie seedlings.
    Wore a glove.
    Avoided touching fomites as if they were the Plague.
    Did not poke our fingers into our mucous membranes.
    Returned home and put consumables aside until the Virus has time to die.
    Methylated spirited the steering wheel and the door handles.
    Washed our hands in soap for 30 seconds.
    Left our footwear in the direct sunlight.
    Is all that enough?
    On an individual basis it probably does not matter.
    But if everyone does it, it could make a difference in thousands of deaths.

  10. Boerwar says: Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 4:16 pm

    phR

    They have finally got to the fundamental realization about the Virus that sooner or later all politicians grasp: the Virus is the Truth. It can’t be bought or sold or fixed.

    ********************************************************************************

    US medical researcher : equally applies to us/Morrison

    Dr. Dena Grayson‏Verified account @DrDenaGrayson

    Trump’s TOTAL failure to deploy adequate #coronavirus testing allowed the deadly #coronavirus to spread undetected like wildfire through our communities.

    Countless Americans were put at risk for infection, serious #COVID19 illness, or even death.

  11. Boerwar @ #1257 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 4:13 pm

    mn

    Adern gets it.

    It is time for 100% ruthlessness.

    It is not a time for feckless dicking around which we are getting from the Feds in Oz.

    One media report was talking about passengers off a flight from London flaunting the 14 day self isolation rule, laughing that it wont stop/ ruin their holiday.

    Don’t know if Aussies, Poms or whatever….

  12. ‘lizzie says:
    Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 4:16 pm

    Tehan conclusion.

    Let’s wait and see. This is not easy.’

    Classic.

    ‘This is not easy.’

    Neither is dying an unnecessary death because the Tehans of the world figured out that waiting and seeing was a sound pandemic strategy.

  13. ‘dave says:
    Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 4:23 pm

    Boerwar @ #1257 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 4:13 pm

    mn

    Adern gets it.

    It is time for 100% ruthlessness.

    It is not a time for feckless dicking around which we are getting from the Feds in Oz.

    One media report was talking about passengers off a flight from London flaunting the 14 day self isolation rule, laughing that it wont stop/ ruin their holiday.

    Don’t know if Aussies, Poms or whatever….’

    The really important thing for Border Farce right now is not checking temps of inbounds, not following up those who supposed to self-isolate, but to run a fluff piece on Ralph and Dutton while sticking it to Labor.

  14. beguiledagain says:
    Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 2:56 pm

    I’m thinking about US political culture in general, as expressed by the choices US voters make.

    People have ben trying to establish universal health finance in tbe US for longer than I’ve been alive. It’s never happened. There must be an explanation for that.

  15. Boerwar

    Avoided touching fomites as if they were the Plague.

    ————

    What the heck are fomites? I might be touching them 🙁

  16. That ebola expert that several people linked to in the last few days made the very clear point that the most important thing was to act quickly. Sounded pretty convincing to me. Maybe someone could send it to Tehan.

  17. RI
    says:
    Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 4:26 pm
    beguiledagain says:
    Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 2:56 pm
    I’m thinking about US political culture in general, as expressed by the choices US voters make.
    People have ben trying to establish universal health finance in tbe US for longer than I’ve been alive. It’s never happened. There must be an explanation for that.
    __________________________
    Maybe you can figure it out if you realise that a large percentage of the poor are black Americans. To alleviate poverty in the USA is to disproportionately assist black Americans.

  18. Change central banks’ rules or face total global liquidation

    The danger now is that the deepening global recession will morph into something more intractable: a deflationary depression with a wave of defaults that effectively breaks the capitalist system as we know it.

    Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

    London | The world’s central banks have exhausted almost all their usable ammunition but have failed to calm markets or halt seizure in critical parts of the global financial system.

    This is what we all feared. The danger now is that the deepening global recession – we are weeks into it already – will morph into something more intractable: a deflationary depression with a wave of defaults that effectively breaks the capitalist system as we know it.

    Full story –
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/change-central-banks-rules-or-face-total-global-liquidation-20200317-p54ayf

  19. The High Court has ruled that the Treasurer’s family were in fact legally stateless when they turned up in Australia in 1949 after leaving Hungary. Does this now represent the establishment of some sort of precedence which might have implications for others who have arrived in Australia under duress claiming that they are stateless?

  20. meher baba @ #1233 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 12:46 pm

    Danama Papers: “From what you’ve described I’m perfectly sure that the short-seller and not UniSuper bears ALL of the risk on that transaction.”

    How about if the short-selling strategy goes awry (as it might have done for some on Wall St last Friday and on the ASX today)? And then the person who borrowed and then sold the shares is unable to purchase same shares at a lower price and return them to the super fund? And then declares themselves bankrupt?

    Unisuper aren’t going to lend their shares to just any Joe Blow. I’ve no doubt the borrower has substantial reserves backing them. In all likelihood the borrower will be another fund manager, not an individual. They have no doubt had this arrangement with them for some time now. Unisuper are not going to let anyone walk in off the street and lend them a handful of shares. Unisuper also would have a team of highly paid (and I do mean highly paid) boffins who will crunch the numbers and assess the risk before they lend any entity anything. The borrower would have a similar team on their side as well.

    Anyway, the important point is the borrower is undoubtedly another fund manager hedging their own portfolio. Unisuper will be getting a fee for the service so they too are hedging their portfolio.

    In a nutshell, nothing to see here folks. Move along.

  21. ‘dave says:
    Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 4:28 pm

    Change central banks’ rules or face total global liquidation

    The danger now is that the deepening global recession will morph into something more intractable: a deflationary depression with a wave of defaults that effectively breaks the capitalist system as we know it.’

    It would not surprise me at all. The best thing about it is that as soon as that happens we will be deploying MMT, the UJG and the UBW. Those of us who have not been put against a wall will also receive valuable feedback from the newly minted Comrades Mk 42.5

  22. meher baba

    They are not just being shoved onto a plane and sent back . They are now under quarantine. Given what was outlined earlier it would be a ‘police assisted one”. After the quarantine period they are up for deportation and the consequences that flow from being deported.

  23. citizen @ #1251 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 4:07 pm

    This mob have a different excuse every year for saying the same thing:

    CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC
    Employer groups call to delay annual review of minimum wage
    by Nick Bonyhady (Age headline)

    And there I was thinking the economy was tanking and money needed to be shovelled out the door for people to go and spend at the shops. Like especially people on the Minimum Wage.

  24. Spray

    If Tehan is an example of Cabinet thinking, he absolutely bears out the warnings about waiting until you are sure you’re doing the ‘right thing’, from those with experience of Sars, HIV etc. Get on with making decisions, you fools.

    Last year all the Cabinet were gas lighting with constant assurances that ‘we are proving calm, careful government’. They’re still trying to sell that to us.

  25. ‘mikehilliard says:
    Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 4:15 pm

    bw

    I’ve never seen La Ramblas like that.’

    Take home message?

    Unless they put some sort of artificial halt on mortgage defaults there is going to be carnage in Australia’s housing Ponzi Scheme.

  26. Rakali
    There is no good news unless you are debt free and hold spare cash.

    Some people on the left make the mistake of thinking this only hurts the rich.

  27. Disappointingly, the regressions in my spreadsheet show an uptick in c19 infections 6 days ago. An exponential curve fit from March 12 AM to March 17 PM projects that we reach 1000 cases approx midnight March 20/21. (r2=0.995)

    LR can you put that into a graphic.
    My take is it represents the point at which it ceased to be an imported problem and became a community transmission problem. If this is so then it adds weight to the conclusion that the number of real cases is many times greater than reported. I’m going to assume that the number of real cases outnumbers the official figures 10-20 times.

  28. Spray @ #1247 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 3:59 pm

    lizzie @ #1216 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 3:31 pm

    Senator Andrew Bragg
    @ajamesbragg
    I was a guest at a friend’s wedding in Stanwell Tops on 6 March. After satisfying the guidelines of direct exposure and flu symptoms, I have tested positive to Coronavirus.

    Lizzie, that’s the wedding I was referring to yesterday, where my UNSW classmate contracted it. I believe the latest positive result count from that wedding is 19.

    Must have been quite a night.

    Or they were all Evangelicals who believed they were protected by their Belief and knowledge of the relevant passages in the Bible. 😐

  29. “davesays:
    Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 4:28 pm
    Change central banks’ rules or face total global liquidation….”

    Though in a way, we do know the answer. We’d have to have a war – where we produce stuff, never mind the cost.

    It could be a real war, which would be extremely bad. Or it could be just like a war, without the killing.

    Global warming would be a useful target.

  30. Rudd is admired for his action in the GFC, but my goodness he’s a boring preacher, even if he’s talking sense. I think he should stick to written work!

  31. ‘Rakali says:
    Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 4:32 pm

    Boerwar

    Thanks! But if that’s essentially everything how do you not touch it!’

    IMO, the most important message from RHW is that we need to take personal responsibility for one big thing: DO NOT TOUCH OUR EYES, NOSE OR MOUTH.

    In the same way I seek shade in the bush I now seek automatic doors and toilets in shopping centres where I do not have to touch doors. You can’t eliminate touching fomites but you can reduce them.

    I reckon the chances of my carking it in the pandemic are significant. The one thing I don’t want to do for 100% certain is passing the Virus to my family, my friends or any other citizen.

  32. Watch out for a spike in C-19 cases among free-wheeling Millennials. One young guy just interviewed at the airport, on Channel 9 News, said he was going to spend his enforced 14 day isolation pulling cones. 😆

    I don’t think they’ll be sterilising the bong between tokes either.

  33. Blobbitt
    The response to climate change is contributing to the problem or transition pending on what side of the energy fence you sit. The market is slowly forcing change.

  34. Thanks Boerwar.

    I live alone and in more or less isolation all the time except when i go shopping or buy my daily coffee. Trying to stop touching face is the hardest to remember.

  35. Rakali

    RHW reckons that the one good reason for wearing a face mask is that it reminds you not to touch your facial wet bits.

    ‘Studies show’ that we touch our face around 20 times an hour in normal times so it is a hard habit to break.

    Washing the hands is vital for all the times we forget not touch our mucous membranes.

    Q. What is worse than a poke in the eye with a burnt stick?
    A. Picking your nose with a Virus load on your finger; rubbing your eyes with a Virus load on your finger; and, picking your teeth with a Virus load on your finger.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *