The Guardian reports on yet another fortnightly Essential Research poll with no voting intention numbers, but we does at least get the monthly leadership ratings. These show Scott Morrison down a point on approval to 39% and steady on disapproval at 52%, after the previous poll respectively had him down five and up nine. Anthony Albanese is respectively down two to 41% and up one to 31%, and he has lost his 39-36 lead as preferred prime minister, with the two now tied on 36%. The BludgerTrack trends on the sidebar have now been updated with these results.
Further questions on bushfire recovery, sports rorts and coronavirus don’t seem to have turned up anything too mindblowing, but the publication of the full report may turn up something hopefully later today.
UPDATE: Full report here. The most interesting of the supplementary findings for mine relate to the budget surplus, the consistent theme of which is that respondents aren’t that fussed about it: 79% agree spending on bushfire recovery is more important than maintaining it, with 11% disagreeing; 65% say it would be understandable if the coronavirus impact meant it wasn’t achieved, with 18% disagreeing; and 57% agree it was wrong for the government to discuss the surplus in the present tense before the election, with 24% disagreeing.
Good leadership Labor have currently. Each way Albo reckons coal workers are a useless unicorn industry. The deputy Marles says its a good thing if the thermal coal industry in Australia collapses. Regional QLD are going to love these guys.
BK
As have we. Ideas and positions that in the not too distant past were pretty ho hum pretty mainstream ideas are often now classed “going too far to the left” . That is I think a problem caused by the mania for “triangulation” by teh ‘left” . Means the right feel the need to move further right to differentiate themselves in the “vote market”. Further movement right followed by more triangulation to the “middle ground” and around we go again…..and again.
C@tmomma @ #549 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 10:18 pm
The seats of Sydney that are vulnerable are the Zali seats.
Agree they are not Labor strongholds but the Wentworth guy and the North Sydney guy are hedging their bets.
I had a thought about the Essential Poll. Mine is a pretty terrible methodology but considering there hasn’t been much of a visible effort to improve accuracy from the pollsters anyway – I decided to analyse the number of people listed in each report as Labor, Coalition, Green, Other.
Since Essential has published such breakdowns of sample size for each report since July, I decided to benchmark the July poll against the election result. The numbers in the July Essential were Labor 30.3%, Coalition 35.8%, Greens 8.4% and Other 13.2%, which for whatever reason doesn’t add to 100% but I didn’t realise this at the time so I adjusted each total so that it matched the election result, netting +3.0 for Labor, +5.6 for Coalition and +2.0 for the Greens and just subtracted all of these from 100 to get the other vote.
It showed a bouncy Labor primary vote over the months 33.3% in July to 32.0/36.7% in August, 34.3/32.9% in September, 34.5/34.5/38.9% in October, 33.2/34.6% in November, 35.8% in December, 35.3/35.5% in January and 36.5% in February. That nets an average over the last two months of 35.8% primary vote, which is a lift of 2.5% since the election.
The Coalition vote stayed strong all through 2019 41.4-40.7-40.0-41.0-41.5-39.7-40.5-44.4-40.7-40.0-40.0 (take these in the same order as above), but seemed to start plummeting in 2020, which is what Newspoll seems to be observing, that is 40.0-37.3-35.9 averaging 37.7% which is a fall of 3.7%.
The Green vote bobbed and dipped but always remained above 10%, 10.4-11.7-12.0-11.3-11.0-12.5-11.8-12.3-12.0-10.6-12.2-11.8-12.2-12.7. The 2020 average is 12.2%, which is an increase of 1.8% and seems to corroborate with Newspoll finding the Greens doing well.
The other column hovered around 13% but I was just using 100-SUM so cumulative error here, and one poll looked really like an outlier although it didn’t look like it should have been on the raw figures so I’m going to say not important.
I also calculated very roughly the two party preferred, I assumed 80% of Greens preferences and 40% of Other preferences flowed to Labor. Accordingly Labor’s share of the two party preferred result was 48% in July (Newspoll: 47), 48/51% in August (49%), 49/48% in September (49/49%), 50/49/50% in October (49%), 48/49% in November (50/49%), 50% in December (48%), 50/51% in January (51%) and 53% in February (52%).
More than anything I expected absolutely nothing to be of interest so I almost surprised to see the same sort of trend as in Newspoll; the Coalition doing badly, but Labor only picking up some of the vote, and the greens having something of a surge. It might almost be a public service, however, if essential release their real results, otherwise Newspoll defines the result with certainty when it shouldn’t be.
Greensborough Growler
I suppose you could look at the “Zali vulnerable seats” as being the Liberals version of Labor’s “Greens vulnerable inner city” seats. 2
That Bloomberg sketch is a blatant SNL rip-off! 😆
poroti @ #555 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 10:29 pm
Which seats are Labor under pressure?
Bandt becomes Leader and shows how poor he is. Great opportunity for Labor to take back.
Higgins and Kooyong under threat. Both Lib seats.
Fits the pattern.
What’s your point?
Greensborough Growler
So there are no inner city seats where Labor is feeling the pinch from the Greens. Good to hear the news. Might be news to some MPs as well.
poroti @ #558 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 10:52 pm
If you’ve got some seats, we can have a discussion.
the petition :-
https://www.climateactnow.com.au/
the bill :-
https://climate-act-images.s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/Main_Bill.pdf
i’ve said all i want to say. -a.v.
poroti
At the last election, in the closest Green v Labor seat (Wills) the Green lost the 2PP by 15,000 votes.
In all the Labor-held Melbourne target seats, the Greens got further away from winning. In the case of Cooper, where a year earlier the Greens were assuring us all of their inevitable and well deserved victory, the swing against the Greens was more than 13%pt.
With pressure like that its no wonder di Natale got knifed.
alfred venison @ #560 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 11:01 pm
You’re far too verbose for PB tastes.
3z
says:
Tuesday, February 11, 2020 at 11:03 pm
poroti
At the last election, in the closest Green v Labor seat (Wills) the Green lost the 2PP by 15,000 votes.
_____________________
Wills and Cooper will eventually fall to the Greens. This time frame was almost accelerated by having David Feeney in there but eventually the ALP got a good delaying candidate in there. The demographics in these seats are just too powerful to overcome. They sit side by side with both having a Green southern half and an ALP northern half. At the coming Vic distribution it would be handy if these were sliced horizontally rather than vertically leading to 1 ALP 1 Green. The current borders mean that the ALP take both but that will change.
Adam Bandt has increased his vote at every election. In 2019 his received 49.3% of first preferences (+4.7%). TCP (Greens vs Liberal) was 69.4% (+2.79%).
A stellar Labor candidate would need to be preselected to knock him off.
How likely is that?
nath @ #563 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 11:06 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbU3zdAgiX8
Of course there will be ups and downs but with every funeral in these parts they just get greener.
Wills 2007: GRN 13%
2010 GRN 20%
2013 GRN 22%
2016 GRN 30%
2019 GRN 27%
Cooper 2007 GRN 17%
2010 GRN 23%
2013 GRN 26%
2016 GRN 36%
2019 GRN 21%
“With pressure like that its no wonder di Natale got knifed.”
And yet the Greens under his leadership received its second best vote.
Despite your repeated attempts at a meme, he wasn’t knifed. Even cynical political journalists agree RDN is a decent person and his reason for leaving due to family reasons was genuine.
nath @ #566 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 11:17 pm
Losing support only makes you more popular!
Greensborough Growler
says:
Losing support only makes you more popular!
_______________________
If you think the long term chances of the ALP holding these 2 seats are not uncertain then that demonstrates a fair bit of stupidity. A few decades ago Melbourne, Wills and Cooper/Batman were three of the safest ALP seats in the country. Now, not so much.
That’s right Pegasus, Adam Bandt couldn’t even get 50% of the vote against a disendorsed candidate. That said, I’m sure he’ll be terribly hard to knock off given the profile he’s been able to buuld and the extremely priveleged nature of the Melbourne electorate.
Otherwise, the Greens have been telling us they’re destined to win Cooper and Wills fot years. As if these seats somehow belong to them. If the best argument for a Green win is the promise of further gentrification, we might be waiting a.while yet.
Or perhaps we could engage in a gerrybandter as nath suggests. Nope. Labor would still win both seats comfortably on the 2019 result.
nath @ #566 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 10:17 pm
Off those numbers you really should have posted that in 2016. 2019 ruined your hypothesis.
nath @ #569 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 11:24 pm
Quoting results (your stats) that show a swing to Labor as your guiding “killer” fact shows you are not only stupid,but as dumb as dog shit!
3z
If the best argument for a Green win is the promise of further gentrification, we might be waiting a.while yet.
_______________________
Well yes. clearly that’s the best argument. And gentrification has been going on in these two seats at a significant rate and it is gaining momentum.
GG
Love the Everly clip.
We’re all a bit dream dream dream
Goll @ #574 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 11:29 pm
Cheers.
Greensborough Growler
says:
Quoting results (your stats) that show a swing to Labor as your guiding “killer” fact shows you are not only stupid,but as dumb as dog shit!
______________________
2019 did see a swing to Labor in both seats. What about the other elections? Why has the ALP vote in these electorates declined precipitously since the 1990s?
No decent person pays their workers $3 an hour.
But if you have to believe that Bandt didn’t roll di Natale in order to maintaim your delusion of Green moral perfection then that’s OK, you do you.
nath @ #576 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 11:31 pm
But, Bill obviously won them back!
Greensborough Growler
says:
But, Bill obviously won them back!
____________________
If you find comfort in simplistic arguments and feel comfortable about the long term ALP chances in Wills and Cooper. Good luck to ya old feller!
nath @ #579 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 11:40 pm
I laugh and I laugh and I laugh.
Mavis @ #533 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 9:43 pm
—
His bro runs an energy company. Recently bid for Stanmore Coal (SMR) but backed out. Assume Matt does PR for the family business and will get looked after
https://www.winfieldgi.com/managing-director
alfred venison:
[‘i’ve said all i want to say. -a.v.’]
Well, I guess that’s it then. You’ve appeared to have blown in for one specific purpose. Had you agitated your case more persuasively, I may’ve considered appending my name to Ms. Steggall’s petition.
nath
Hmmm. I live in Waterloo Sydney. When I first moved her in 2003, 75% of residents were reliant on government benefits for their income. Not a lot has changed I suspect.
From the first day I loved it. I found the South Sydney Herald (https://southsydneyherald.com.au/) pushed under my front door the day I got the keys.
Seeing the South Sydney Herald, I knew I would love this place- this was a community – and I have loved it ever since then. Waterloo was not gentrified. at all, but we all supported each other, and I was absorbed very quickly into the community. I had a well paying job, and was buying my home, but the locals never held that against me, and of course, I had problems with my stupid teenage kids, just like all the other humans here did.
Gentrification has happened, but not too much, and for this I am grateful. The City of Sydney Council and the NSW Labor party have committed to keeping the large public housing Waterloo estate here (and NSW Liberal planning minister Rob Stokes has handed planning over to the City of Sydney).
I am cheering! I love my neighbours. I love my un-gentrified neighbourhood.
If the price of a greens state or Federal member is gentrification, then I wonder why such members are really representing the proletariat.
Maybe they are the Vanguard of the proletariat
Douglas and Milko
says:
I am cheering! I love my neighbours. I love my un-gentrified neighbourhood.
__________________________
I don’t know much about Waterloo but I would be surprised if terrace houses in your suburb aren’t selling for millions.
Aqualung
I think it may have been you last night who was interested in the Sydney Maritime Museum.
The Sydney Maritime Museum was opened in 1991 in Darling Harbour. It counted among its working exhibits a number of ships, of sail and steam. The tall ship the James Craig was probably the most famous.
However, the working fleet, the James Craig, the Lady Hopetoun and others eventually moved to a working harbour wharf in Rozelle Bay, as work needed to be done on the vessels to restore them and keep them seaworthy. There was a falling out, and the working ships renamed themselves as the Sydney Heritage Fleet, and they are still in Rozelle Bay.
My FIL was one of the drivers of the Sydney Heritage Fleet project, and I love visiting the working shipyard.
If ever you feel like a sail on the Harbour, while contributing to maintaining the fleet heritage checkout: https://www.shf.org.au/
nath
Yes, they are . But there are not many of them – the Green Bans did not work here – and any of us who decides to buy one understands (or quickly comes to terms with the fact that) we are in the midst of one of the largest public housing estates in Australia.
I love it, and so do many of my neighbours. Those who do not love it quickly sell out.
But we are not really gentrifying, and my Greens friends are pretty happy with this, and actively working to keep the large amount of public housing.
Mr Newbie
C@tmomma read in Bezo’s “Wash Po” that Sanders is a very bad man.
Nath looking at your numbers, they don’t jump around, they rise and then they fall, it looks like 2016 was green peak.
I think we are at a point where people want action when it comes to climate change. You are not going to vote Green for that, and posting reams of rubbish on PB is not going to change that.
Good to see a new topic, get shorten was getting seriously old.
I suppose now that floods are getting all the attention, asking what happened to Barnaby’s expensive drought report would be considered yesterday’s news?
michael @ #551 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 10:22 pm
Don’t you just love how Little Green Men do the Trumpy thing and try and tag a pejorative on a Progressive party leader’s name? 🙄
Bellwether @ #587 Wednesday, February 12th, 2020 – 6:40 am
And I don’t need to do anything other than read your posts to know that you are a very jejune and callow man prone to immature and ridiculous verbal ejaculations that you think are humorous but which aren’t.
‘This is what criminals do’: Twitter reacts to damning new White House emails on Trump’s dealings with Ukraine
According to an exclusive report from Just Security, a newly uncovered batch of unredacted emails shows the White House Office of Management and Budget lied to investigators about the Trump administration’s dealings with Ukraine.
The emails “confirm that OMB, including the general counsel’s office, was fully in the loop about the Pentagon’s concerns and took active steps to bury them,” reported Just Security’s Kate Brannen.
As the news circulated, Twitter users saw the revelations as proof that President Trump’s acquittal in the Senate was premature at best.
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/02/this-is-what-criminals-do-twitter-reacts-to-damning-new-white-house-emails-on-trumps-dealings-with-ukraine/
Roger Stone prosecutor abruptly withdraws from case and resigns after DOJ seeks lighter sentence
Reuters is reporting that the Justice Department prosecutor Aaron Zelinsky, who has been handling the Roger Stone case, has officially withdrawn from the case.
In the last 24 hours, the DOJ disavowed the sentencing recommendation for Stone, that he be put in jail for seven to nine years. President Donald Trump unleashed Tuesday morning, saying that it was unfair and the DOJ decided that they were withdrawing the sentencing.
After being undercut by Attorney General Bill Barr, Zelinsky appears to be withdrawing officially from the case.
It’s unknown if he was forced to resign or left on his own decision.
The judge in the case is the one who will decide how many years Stone will get. However, Trump is expected to issue a pardon.
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/02/roger-stone-prosecutor-abruptly-withdraws-from-case-and-resigns-after-doj-seeks-lighter-sentence/
Russian state media boasts Trump acquittal will put him even deeper in Kremlin’s pocket: report
According to a report in the Daily Beast by Russian media expert Julia Davis, commentators on Russian state media are rubbing their hands in glee at the acquittal of Donald Trump by the GOP-controlled Senate and see the president as, once again, easy prey for Kremlin manipulation.
As she notes, “Having predicted this outcome for his impeachment trial, Russian experts and state media pundits are anticipating beneficial side effects for the Kremlin as Trump is more Trump—and more Russia’s Trump—than ever.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/02/russian-state-media-boasts-trump-acquittal-will-put-him-even-deeper-in-kremlins-pocket-report/
C@tmomma @ #592 Wednesday, February 12th, 2020 – 7:14 am
And you are a superficial window-shopper.
There goes c@t 7.14am with the dirty birdy sexual references and innuendo again…..
GG
I don’t bother with twitter so what’s the latest on Prince Andrew please.
Bellwether @ #596 Wednesday, February 12th, 2020 – 7:35 am
Which is not true, as I have laid out my extensive reading sources, more extensive and varied than yours and which cover off yours as well, but whatever. It just seems to me you are a rusted-on Bernie Sanders supporter who will brook no argument against him. And woe betide anyone who dares criticise Saint Bernie of the Self-Serving Political Moves and No Costs for His Policies, then the claws come out. Pfft!
Taylormade @ #598 Wednesday, February 12th, 2020 – 7:39 am
He’s still alive but his nephew, Peter Phillips, has announced he is getting divorced.