The first Newspoll for the year, and the third under the new YouGov online polling regime, finds Labor opening up a 51-49 lead, after they trailed 52-48 in the poll in early December. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down two to 40%, Labor up three to 36%, the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation down one to 4%. Perhaps more remarkably, Scott Morrison now trails Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister by 43-39, after leading him 48-34 in the previous poll. The damage on Morrison’s personal ratings amounts to an eight point drop on approval to 37% and an eleven point rise on disapproval to 59%. Conversely, Albanese is up six on approval to 46% and down four on disapproval to 37%. The Australian’s report is here; the poll was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1505.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The Guardian has numbers from the first Essential Research poll of the year, but they disappointingly offer nothing on voting intention. What they do provide is corroboration for Newspoll’s finding that Anthony Albanese has taken the lead over Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister, in this case at 39-36, which compares with a 44-28 lead to Morrison when Essential last asked the question in early November. We are told that Scott Morrison is up nine on disapproval to 52% and that Anthony Albanese is up four on approval to 43% – their respective approval and disapproval ratings will have to wait for the full Essential report, which will presumably be with us later today or tomorrow. UPDATE: Morrison is down five on approval to 40%, Albanese is up two on disapproval to 30%. Full report here.
Despite everything, the poll finds 32% approving of Morrison’s handling of the bushfire crisis, which may be related to the fact that his approval rating was down only three among Coalition voters. The Guardian tells us only that 36% strongly disapproved of Morrison’s performance, to which the less strong measure of disapproval will need to be added to produce an equivalent figure for the 32% approval. Fifty-two per cent disagreed that Australia had always had bushfires like those just experienced, and 78% believe the government had been unprepared for them. Efforts to shift blame to the states do not appear to have borne fruit: Gladys Berejiklian’s handling of the bushfires scored 55% approval among New South Wales respondents, while Daniel Andrews was on 58% (these numbers would have come from small sub-samples of around 300 to 400 respondents).
The poll also offers a timely addition to the pollster’s leaders attributes series. The findings for the various attributes in this serious invariably move en bloc with the leaders’ general standing, and Morrison is accordingly down across the board. However, a clear standout is his collapse from 51% to 32% for “good in a crisis”, on which he was up 10% the last time the question was posed in October. Other unfavourable movements related in The Guardian range from a six-point increase in “out of touch with ordinary Australians“ to 62% to a 12 point drop on “visionary” to 30%.
More on all this when the full report is published. The poll was conducted online from Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1081.
Victoria
Folau “Why didn’t they ask Jesus for help?”
I suspect Jesus was too busy doing triage with all the human and animal victims of the fires.
GG
In a nutshell. Implored the community not to be complacent, and understand that despite living in suburbs, we are in close proximity to rural space. Made the point that if the wind change did not occur on black Saturday, the fires would have impacted as far as the Simpson barracks. Barely 14 km from the city.
After that editorial and the Project Lincoln advert targeting evangelicals, suddenly more and more of them are speaking out against their behaviour.
…
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/01/11/donald-trump-evangelicals-rally-stunning-sad-unprecedented-column/4421150002/
Victoria
I’d put a large wager on Folau being deadly serious. We’ve been terribly sinful lately what with all the gay marriage stuff and the like. We’ve been cruising for a bruising with a bit of god’s wrath.
TPOF @ #162 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 8:47 am
Yes indeedy. I have a policy of trying to think the best of everybody. At this as in so many phases of my life – I’m a failure.
Mr. Falau in tears regarding the terrible fires is one thing – the ratbaggery is another.
Perhaps Isaac Asimov’s three laws of robotics could be taught in schools.
1.A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
2.A robot must obey the orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.
3.A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Laws.[1]
Some reworking would be required and the definition of “human” would be difficult.
Passing the psychopathy test must be a requirement
https://psychcentral.com/quizzes/psychopathy-quiz/
1. Most would describe me as charming and nonchalant — I can turn my charm on and off like a faucet.
Not me
This describes me somewhat
This is definitely me
2. I do what I want, when I want, the moment the impulse strikes me, regardless of what others want.
Not me
This describes me somewhat
This is definitely me
and so on……..
Prolly depending on one’s mental status “passing” would be ass backward for some.
Over – early “smoko” cuppa coffee. ☕
bakunin
Shifting the emphasis from these issues to climate change is what needs to happen.
That’s what happens, after all — something which is the number one issue at one election is down the list at another.
What is ‘the number one issue’ which will decide the election often changes quite rapidly – leading up to the 1998 (?) election, the number one issue was the incompetence of the Howard government. Then Howard floated the GST and the media talked of nothing else.
People’s minds can be changed, in other words. It’s up to people like us, on the ground, to change them.
Victoria @ #207 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 9:25 am
Vic I am aware that the wind change on Black Saturday saved a lot of property and lives. Simpson Barracks is past our property. We would likely have been impacted if that had occurred as we back on to the Plenty River.
poroti
Yeah I would agree Folau is serious. Sigh….
GG
Yes. And I will never forget standing on my deck and actually witnessing the wind change.
Never before and never since have I visually seen the shadows at play swirling and changing the wind direction. It was surreal
C@t:
I’d bet London to a brick grimace doesn’t give a shit about nath.
I’d also bet that nath’s insecurities are of no interest to the majority of PBers, hence why nobody bothers responding to his blathering.
Fess
I know I dont give a fig. Lol
GG, the wind change on black saurday may have saved some property and lives in the suburbs but it did no favors to kinglake etc.
Pegasus says:
Monday, January 13, 2020 at 9:03 am
Ross Garnaut was interviewed this morning on ABC RN Breakfast.
The path to a zero-carbon economy
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/the-path-to-a-zero-carbon-economy:-ross-garnaut/11862034
It would be good if you listened to Ross, note that he spends most of his time talking about the opportunities the move to zero carbon emission economy brings, not closing down the coal industry.
https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/superpower
It would serve the whole endeavor well if a few Green party members read his book and reflected on what he says.
No comment.
LOL Pelosi is still messing with Trump’s head that that of the Senate Republicans.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/pelosi-says-trump-impeached-for-life-despite-mcconnells-gamesmanship-coverup/2020/01/12/4e75531a-3544-11ea-9541-9107303481a4_story.html
‘Impeached for life’! No wonder the man has serious Daddy issues when it comes to her. 😆
Confessions @ #197 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 9:25 am
Prolly a closely guarded secret known only to 6 billion real humans that Persia is now Iran.*
Perhaps somebody could inform the new King Cyrus regarding his new kingdom.
*Generally, “Persia” today refers to Iran because the country formed over the center of the ancient Persian empire and the majority of its original citizens inhabited that land. Modern Iran is comprised of a large number of different ethnic and tribal groups.Sep 17, 2019
Kayjay
“ Passing the psychopathy test must be a requirement”
————-
I am confused and dismayed.
I did your recommended psychopathy test and got a score of 1.
According to your test it stated “I have no psychopathic tendencies”.
But then the killer: “this is not a diognosis (sic) tool”!!
That means I may in fact have psychopathic tendencies!!
What do you suggest?
Should I join the Liberal Party with a guarantee of being PM or at least running an Aged Persons Home?
I love the story about Nancy Pelosi that the first job she had in politics was keeping the book for her father of who he owed favours to, and who owed favours to him. 🙂
martini Henry
Yes and I had noted the horrible tragedy that befell Kinglake, in my original post
Kayjay
“*Generally, “Persia” today refers to Iran because the country formed over the center of the ancient Persian empire and the majority of its original citizens inhabited that land. Modern Iran is comprised of a large number of different ethnic and tribal groups.Sep 17, 2019”
“Iran” is the name preferred by the government and people of the modern nation. This has been the case since ancient times (especially under the Sassanid dynasty). Iranians have traditionally called their land Iran (or similar names), not Persia.
“Persia” is an ancient Greek name – though the name is itself derived from a local name (Pars/Fars), that was closely associated with King Cyrus and his Achaemenid dyansty.
Rakali
Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 9:55 am
Comment #216
Dear Sir,
Without knowing what the “1” denotes I cannot answer your question.
Should you happen to be an “empath” the “managing Aged Care” would lead to almost certain suicide.
The Liberal party question. Perhaps you might consider outright prostitution as a career path which would have the benefit of meeting people from all walks of life and perhaps also helping out by the judicious application of whips, paddles and the like to plump posteriors oft clad in the finest lingerie.
The above is courtesy of my imaginary friend “Muriel” as I have no personal abilities in the job swindle sphere.
Good day to you sir and may the road rise up to meet you ……etc.
KayJay
Confessions says: Monday, January 13, 2020 at 9:52 am
LOL Pelosi is still messing with Trump’s head that that of the Senate Republicans.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said Sunday that President Trump is “impeached for life” regardless of “any gamesmanship” by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), whom she accused of orchestrating a “coverup” of Trump’s actions as the Senate waits for the House to transmit the articles of impeachment.
‘Impeached for life’! No wonder the man has serious Daddy issues when it comes to her
******************************************************************
If we need to rely on tame mouthpieces for the Liberals like David Crowe to interpret what even he admits are “smoke signals”, from a Prime Minister speaking on leadership and disaster relief, in the middle of a world-significant natural catastrophe, then Morrison is truly fucked.
If ever there was a time for plain speaking, without the double talk and ambiguity, it is now. A true leader would leave the nation in no doubt, good or bad, right or wrong, palatable or poisonous, exactly what his position was. A true leader would not need shills and courtiers from the media to explain or parse his words.
Crowe’s tick of approval for Morrison’s obtuseness – it was Howardesque, apparently – only shows that Crowe himself is as inside the Canberra Bubble as his hero. To write that Morrison’s meaningless blather to Speers yesterday could signal either big changes or not, leaves Crowe about as useful as a one-armed paper hanger.
The likelihood that Crowe first discussed what he was about to write with one of Morrison’s senior minders before committing to additional meaningless blather on top of Morrison’s shows us how pointless the Media – especially it’s “senior” members – have become in advancing the national discourse.
firefox, there are indeed many layers of irony here: with the labour right screaming blue murder that the greens are not focusing on coalition vandalism, at the very time when labor has gone into deep witness protection re. attacking coalition climate policy, leaving the greens to fight them on their own. Naturally the greens must never call out labor for their deafening silence here. Then of course when the labour right finally does hear the greens attacking the coalition, their only response is to mock them as hypocrits and/or cynical.
C@tmomma
says:
No, you’re the nasty one. You have plenty of form to reference in coming to that conclusion. Hmm, and let me make a prediction. I predict that you will now try to grind Labor into the ground here, again, for the next 2 years until the next federal election, based upon that comment of grimace’s. Which, if you were a tolerant and generous person, which you undoubtedly are not, you would have recognised as the primal scream that it was as a result of someone who realises that the bastards behind the rigorous pursuit to take no valid or meaningful action wrt Climate Change, are the federal government yet again
__________________________________
I’m sure all the people who lost houses etc will have nothing but sympathy for Grimace’s hope that the fires wipe out LNP seats. Poor Grimace.
KayJay
For some reason I saw this and thought of you. Not sure why, perhaps it was the ‘crazy genius’ of it all 🙂
Damaged toilet wall , what to do ? A ha !
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https://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/news/article.cfm?c_id=6&objectid=12299880
Probably more like they have realised they are pushing their luck too hard (particularly via the religious discrimination bill), and have backed off, for a while.
––––––––––
Victoria @ #163 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 7:00 am
Evil doesn’t come with cloven hoofs, a forked tail, and horns. It comes in the form of human beings inflicting pointless deprivation, degradation, and cruelty on other human beings.
Kakuru
Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 10:13 am
Comment #219
Thanks for your post regarding Iran/Persia.
This blog is quite amazing from time to time with information, happenings and knowledge. ☮☕
I am ashamed of this lickspittle diplomat, trained by nature and nurture to agree with whoever’s in power.
phoenixRed:
He can whine all he likes, but he’ll forever be known as a president who was impeached!
This always means “we won’t actually do so”. Unless/until there’s a price on carbon, anyways.
lizzie @ #239 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 10:27 am
He plays the Cello while Scott fiddles.
Some of Australia’s most extreme Christian-right parties have withdrawn from politics, claiming the election of Prime Minister Scott Morrison had rendered them redundant.
Rise Up Australia is from the “Catch the Fire” Ministries. I think we have caught the fire…
Kelvin Antaw @ #134 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 7:40 am
I suspect that Fat Clive is as burnt as his dinosaur. He did offer his helicopter, but someone told him where to stick it (after kindly suggesting that he remove the main rotors and use plenty of lube.
Gina the Hutt was heard to burp after swallowing a few unwary
peonsbeetrooters last week .Rupert is in a spot of bother.
It really is time to tax “deserving” billionaires into the stone age to pay for the pain of many. An obscene wealth tax is long overdue. The Scum can think of it as a benefit of the Enlightenment – we no longer use express tumbrils to the guillotine as a legitimate expression of the will of the people
poroti
Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 10:23 am
Comment #225
Why thank you muchly.
Some time ago my daughter (bunnies, puppies, pink) gave me an unwanted “WELCOME” sign – which now adorns the inside of my front door.
What has this to do with a 51/49 ALP to NLP poll – not a lot. The magpie on the sign has me wondering – where is “Pica” ❓
Here’s an interesting piece on the motivations of older Black americans and their voting intentions in the Democratic primary.
https://t.co/BHFsGk0YSC?amp=1
Exactly. Its one of those things you’re not supposed to talk about – even on here.
Having said this the thing we should be discussing here is how to reach those punters and not just tell them shit they want to hear, but actually disabuse them of bad ideas and bring them into the 21st century. Well at least enough of them.
This hurts me. A koala, probably injured, turning to the species that has caused the complete devastation of its habitat.
Cud Chewer
At the next COAG meeting, I would like to see the standards for new builds immediately raised to a much higher fire resistance level. Yes, this would make them more expensive, in which case perhaps people will stop building such large homes and consume less material.
Can’t see the conservatives agreeing, somehow.
Nice bit of weasel word from the prick. No mention of the cause and hence solutions that entails , I wonder why. I also wonder if climate change scored a major ‘role’ with star billing or just a bit part in Sharma’s ‘movie’ ?
I see that PPM is suddenly important again 😆
I rarely comment, but surely anyone that doesn’t think Grimace’s comment was disgraceful should take a step back from politics for a while.
But you’re not nipping it in the bud. You’re prolonging it. That’s the point.
I’ve had some very positive personal dealings with Grimace. From my experience of him, I’d say he is WELL able to look after himself.
Victoria,
When you look at the AES the most important economic issue in 1998 was taxation.
In 1993 the most important economic issue was unemployment. In 2007 the most important economic issue was industrial relations. From 2010-2019 it was management of the economy.
The point is that these “putting food on the table and a roof over our heads” issues are *always* a higher priority than climate change and environment.
The challenge is to link climate change with these economic issues.
Y2K it’s baaaaaaaack and biting
A lazy fix 20 years ago means the Y2K bug is taking down computers now
Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2229238-a-lazy-fix-20-years-ago-means-the-y2k-bug-is-taking-down-computers-now/#ixzz6ArgW6xGj
poroti @ #254 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 11:02 am
Yeah, and is it of the ‘the climate has ALWAYS been changing’, type of get out clause that refuses to acknowledge who is causing accelerated Climate Change?
Such bland bromides might comfort some but the Coalition need to do more than that now I think.
Bushfire Bill @ #258 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 11:12 am
Not any more I’m not. I’m done. 🙂
And I, too, have had personal contact over the ether with grimace, he’s a lovely man and it just upset me mightily to have his character besmirched like that.
Spray @ #257 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 11:09 am
We all make out of character comments from time to time and all I did was try to give it context.
Agree that it seemed out of character. Perhaps we’ll see a retraction later on.