The first Newspoll for the year, and the third under the new YouGov online polling regime, finds Labor opening up a 51-49 lead, after they trailed 52-48 in the poll in early December. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down two to 40%, Labor up three to 36%, the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation down one to 4%. Perhaps more remarkably, Scott Morrison now trails Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister by 43-39, after leading him 48-34 in the previous poll. The damage on Morrison’s personal ratings amounts to an eight point drop on approval to 37% and an eleven point rise on disapproval to 59%. Conversely, Albanese is up six on approval to 46% and down four on disapproval to 37%. The Australian’s report is here; the poll was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1505.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The Guardian has numbers from the first Essential Research poll of the year, but they disappointingly offer nothing on voting intention. What they do provide is corroboration for Newspoll’s finding that Anthony Albanese has taken the lead over Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister, in this case at 39-36, which compares with a 44-28 lead to Morrison when Essential last asked the question in early November. We are told that Scott Morrison is up nine on disapproval to 52% and that Anthony Albanese is up four on approval to 43% – their respective approval and disapproval ratings will have to wait for the full Essential report, which will presumably be with us later today or tomorrow. UPDATE: Morrison is down five on approval to 40%, Albanese is up two on disapproval to 30%. Full report here.
Despite everything, the poll finds 32% approving of Morrison’s handling of the bushfire crisis, which may be related to the fact that his approval rating was down only three among Coalition voters. The Guardian tells us only that 36% strongly disapproved of Morrison’s performance, to which the less strong measure of disapproval will need to be added to produce an equivalent figure for the 32% approval. Fifty-two per cent disagreed that Australia had always had bushfires like those just experienced, and 78% believe the government had been unprepared for them. Efforts to shift blame to the states do not appear to have borne fruit: Gladys Berejiklian’s handling of the bushfires scored 55% approval among New South Wales respondents, while Daniel Andrews was on 58% (these numbers would have come from small sub-samples of around 300 to 400 respondents).
The poll also offers a timely addition to the pollster’s leaders attributes series. The findings for the various attributes in this serious invariably move en bloc with the leaders’ general standing, and Morrison is accordingly down across the board. However, a clear standout is his collapse from 51% to 32% for “good in a crisis”, on which he was up 10% the last time the question was posed in October. Other unfavourable movements related in The Guardian range from a six-point increase in “out of touch with ordinary Australians“ to 62% to a 12 point drop on “visionary” to 30%.
More on all this when the full report is published. The poll was conducted online from Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1081.
poroti
After all the huffing and puffing about the Y2bug not being real, excuse me if I snigger.
C@tmomma says:
Monday, January 13, 2020 at 8:25 am
…”annoying, nasty, bastard, vicious trolling, physiologically incapable of being a decent human, piss off, miscreant, arsehole, nasty little miscreant, blog trollop, nasty, nasty, abused, nasty, nasty, nasty, miscreant, blatant modus operandi of destroying the Labor party, besmirched”…
……………….
Utterly unhinged?
Pegasus @ #175 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 8:52 am
Pegasus, it’s always good to see growth in the environment vote.
What would you see is an achievable/acceptable primary vote % at the next election for the Greens Party ?
What seems to have been forgotten and ignored by the media , where is Susan Ley the environment minister ?
She has not been seen ever since the bushfires started
Spray says:
Monday, January 13, 2020 at 11:20 am
Agree that it seemed out of character. Perhaps we’ll see a retraction later on.
___________________________________
Grimace’s post was the sort of reaction that is generated by the reptilian brain function. One can viscerally feel the same through anger about what has led us here.
However, it doesn’t take much to realise that natural disasters don’t do checks on the individual voting preferences of their victims before or after striking. And non-humans living things, of course, are totally disenfranchised.
[‘The pollster Kevin Bonham said Morrison’s plunge from 14 points ahead as preferred prime minister to four behind is “the equal second highest such loss in Newspoll history”, after Paul Keating’s 23% drop against John Hewson after the horror 1993 budget.
He also said it was “highly unusual” for the current prime minister to trail the opposition leader on preferred prime minister when the two-party-preferred margin was narrow.’]
That’s a humungous change in the PPM metric. And although it’s only early days, I’d be surprised if Morrison can come back from the bed he’s made for himself. As for the 2PP, given preferences were allocated on the results of the last election, it’s probably more like 52 or even 53. In any event, an Albanese led Labor Party is back in the game. A great start to the year for Labor, bearing in mind that
Shorten, to the best of my knowledge, was never in the lead as preferred prime minister.
Scott
says:
Monday, January 13, 2020 at 11:30 am
What seems to have been forgotten and ignored by the media , where is Susan Ley the environment minister ?
She has not been seen ever since the bushfires started
___________________
Holidaying with Sarina Russo?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jan/09/sussan-ley-used-taxpayer-money-for-gold-coast-events-with-multi-millionaire
Mavis
says:
Shorten, to the best of my knowledge, was never in the lead as preferred prime minister.
___________________
I think just once. After Morrison replaced MT.
Gets the tone about right.
https://www.theshovel.com.au/2020/01/12/young-liberals-discovered-reading-to-children-at-story-time/
Sussan Ley has been out with Frydenberg spruiking their massive generosity in granting money for the animals suffering in fires.
Rex Douglas:
[‘I see that PPM is suddenly important again ‘]
It becomes important where the change is 18 points and in the context of what the electorate thinks of Morrison’s handling of the bush fire disaster.
poroti
4. The role of climate change is not disputed.
—————-
Notice the weasely dishonest passive voice!!
There is no agent. Certainly the speaker is NOT saying he/she does not dispute the role of climate change.
It means that “Some greenies somewhere do not dispute the role of climate change but let it be understood I most certainly do but only for career purposes.”
Nath
“I think just once”
That’s a rarely seen bit of honesty from you
Would removing FF subsidies result in coalmines closing?
Ooooh, my ears are hurting as I imagine the screams of anguish.
lizzie @ #135 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 7:40 am
This take has merit.
Given the muppet show Govt was preferred to Labor at the election – and are still within striking distance despite their negligence re climate related catastrophes 0 it shows how poorly Labors standing actually is.
As a 2pp race, it really is about the least worst in voters eyes. But it shouldn’t be. There are alternatives to the duopoly.
Ah yes the old Y2K hoax trick. So many still think this. Yes, the minimal impact and lack of pain had nothing to do with the untold amount of work we did to fix the software. No siree.
The irony – instead of hailed as a triumph its labelled a hoax because of a job well done. I guess much but like the Aussie GFC response by Rudd and Co.
Terminator @ #284 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 8:41 am
That’s a problem with being successful. 🙂
Scotty from Marketing was a mistake by the people last May, and now they are realising in droves that a mistake was made.
Mavis @ #272 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 11:38 am
It’s only important when the Labor leader is in front 😆
I see that someone who spent 6 years shouting about PPM suddenly doesn’t want to look at PPM.
#wonderwhy
nath:
[‘I think just once. After Morrison replaced MT.’]
Thanks. I couldn’t be bothered to research it as Opposition Leaders rarely lead Prime Ministers. And that’s why Albanese’s narrow lead is so newsworthy.
As HI and I watched the RFS trucks and planes fight a mountain of fire just a couple of kilometres away from us the other day, checked our insurance, and made sure we were packed and ready to go if the wind changed, we pondered losing everything.
No house, possessions gone, no infrastructure (power and communications had already failed, roads were blocked by fallen trees and power lines, no shops to buy supplies, or even a pub to drown your sorrows)… it’s what thousands in NSW and Victoria are experiencing now: Paradise Lost.
Even if Morrison makes good on his promises, and services like Centrelink break the habits of a lifetime and quicken up their processes, and tradies and architects and insurance companies and council planning departments all pull their fingers out, we’d be homeless for probably at least a year, relying on rellies and friends to put us up, or taking to the road as refugee Grey Nomads.
And we’re the lucky ones. We have decent savings and people we can turn to apart from government employees.
For some without friends or family, insurance or savings, and with big debts to service, ruination – financial, physical and emotional – is staring them in the face. There is little hope for any kind of any future they may have planned for themselves, no matter how they voted, or what they think about Climate Change.
This disaster is going to bite. It’s going to sink in soon how awful it is. Whole towns may cease to exist. Whole ecosystems have been virtually wiped out. Businesses and lives ruined overnight. It’s a tragedy with worldwide implications as well as the local devastation.
If ever there was a time to ponder our fate as a species, even our right to exist as one, it’s now. But we should do it without gloating or joy in the misfortune of others.
Our individual household hasn’t had to face the destruction that others have been forced to endure. We’ve dodged a bullet so far, but are taking it one day at time. We’ve had the mother of all scares, and there may be worse to come in the coming months. Touch wood on that.
We hope people learn from this, as we have, and are. But we also realise that when the nightmare comes, we are all in it together, and we’d never wish for someone to be wiped out because of the way that their electorate – perhaps only in thin majority – voted.
Confessions @ #285 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 11:47 am
You lot here convinced me how useless it was. 😆
Rex Douglas:
[‘It’s only important when the Labor leader is in front ‘]
Yes, you could say that.
Rex Douglas @ #288 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 8:46 am
No, it’s not important.
It’s interesting, but not important.
It seems to reflect that people are noticing Morrison and are not reacting positively to what they are seeing, whilst Albo’s approach of that is more to their liking.
Mavis
says:
Monday, January 13, 2020 at 11:48 am
nath:
[‘I think just once. After Morrison replaced MT.’]
Thanks. I couldn’t be bothered to research it as Opposition Leaders rarely lead Prime Ministers. And that’s why Albanese’s narrow lead is so newsworthy.
_________________________________
It’s good news but I’m even more pleased about the net satisfaction numbers for Morrison. In July he was at a very good +15 now -22. Massive turnaround obviously. I’m looking forward to leader attributes figures soon.
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, January 13, 2020 at 11:46 am
Mavis @ #272 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 11:38 am
Rex Douglas:
[‘I see that PPM is suddenly important again ‘]
It becomes important where the change is 18 points and in the context of what the electorate thinks of Morrison’s handling of the bush fire disaster.
It’s only important when the Labor leader is in front
____________________________________
Actually, it’s only important when the current Prime Minister is behind. It does not matter which party is in power. If people would prefer somebody who is hardly known to the person they know as PM, the PM is in serious trouble.
However, with over two years to the next election anything can happen, although it’s more likely to be disadvantageous to the government in charge.
If Scotty From Marketing discovers that leadership is different to marketing and that he has the chops to provide real leadership then this poll will not mean anything in the long run. My observation, though, is that neither will happen because he does not have the skills, knowledge or experience and, mostly, the ability to learn the right lessons from disaster and failure.
It is not a judgement on the leader of the opposition than
I’m convinced it is not the politicians who are the problem with our politics- it’s most definitely the partisans who take leave of their brain when it comes to logic.
Turns out Cormann has been holidaying in Singapore and phoning in for bushfire crisis talks.
I find I just don’t care any more.
Cheer up everyone.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1216505134286606336
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bzJ_G4Qei9M
the new friendlyjordies
This guy is great.
The continual, almost breathtaking, bs that spews daily from Scott from Failed Marketing is a wonder to behold.
https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/climate-change/scott-morrison-opens-the-door-to-an-evolution-of-his-governments-climate-change-policy/news-story/dcc7c109018a5b64ff515842daa68cf8
TPOF @ #296 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 8:55 am
Well he’s been sacked from two leadership roles in marketing, so if he didn’t learn from those I don’t think he ever will. 🙂
BB
Even if Morrison makes good on his promises, and services like Centrelink break the habits of a lifetime and quicken up their processes, and tradies and architects and insurance companies and council planning departments all pull their fingers out, we’d be homeless for probably at least a year, relying on rellies and friends to put us up, or taking to the road as refugee Grey Nomads.
__________________________________
Centrelink has been aggressively structured for the last 30 (and particularly the last 6) to brutalise its clients. It has gone from being a ‘service agency’ to being a ‘denial of service’ agency. Everything about it has been engineered to make access as difficult as possible for current and potential clients to minimise cost.
The implementation of robodebt is the apotheosis of this process – and the woman who made it happen (Kathryn Campbell) is back in charge.
Because these fires have created tens of thousands of new clients for Centrelink – typically people who have previously had little or nothing to do with the agency – there will be grief for the government because these people will tell others about what a terrible deal they are getting. And there is no way that Centrelink can be returned to be a genuine service agency in the time needed before the next election. The expertise to do this does not exist anywhere in government any more.
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, January 13, 2020 at 11:40 am
….
As a 2pp race, it really is about the least worst in voters eyes. But it shouldn’t be. There are alternatives to the duopoly.
Actually there isn’t, the Greens have proved that. Their party structure is falling apart, secret conferences, policy coming out of RDN’s office result from an immature structure.
This is happening at 10% of the vote, if it was greater than that the train wreak would become obvious.
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, January 13, 2020 at 11:58 am
I’m convinced it is not the politicians who are the problem with our politics- it’s most definitely the partisans who take leave of their brain when it comes to logic.
____________________________________-
Rex discovers a mirror.
Good Morning
This tweet sums up the Newspoll for me. Bearing in mind the low information voters that polls don’t reach.
@MeckeringBoy tweets
Morrison’s approval rating plunges
Turns out Australians expect their govt to govern?!
To be present.
To have a climate change policy.
To be proactive.
To work from the science.
Who knew?
#ScottyFomMarketing #auspol #ClimateCriminals
#bushfirecrisis https://www.sbs.com.au/news/scott-morrison-s-approval-rating-plunges-in-latest-newspoll
Morrison’s approval rating plunges
Turns out Australians expect their govt to govern?!
To be present.
To have a climate change policy.
To be proactive.
To work from the science.
Who knew?
#ScottyFomMarketing #auspol #ClimateCriminals
#bushfirecrisis https://www.sbs.com.au/news/scott-morrison-s-approval-rating-plunges-in-latest-newspoll
Is it going to be another three years of Labor in front?
I see why the PPM discussion. Thats different and a good sign.
nath:
[‘It’s good news but I’m even more pleased about the net satisfaction numbers for Morrison. In July he was at a very good +15 now -22. Massive turnaround obviously. I’m looking forward to leader attributes figures soon.’]
Net satisfaction too. Combining both markers what you get is that the electorate appears to be coming to its senses – that Morrison’s a dud, whose only skill is marketing and even that’s fallen flat.
TPOF @ #305 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 9:08 am
But it’s been so long that he’s forgotten what he looks like.
lizzie @ #276 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 11:40 am
In that it makes coal more expensive as a fuel, then yes – it would result in existing coal mines closing earlier than they otherwise would.
But – more importantly – eliminating all the direct and indirect subsidies would mean new coal mines would no longer be viable. No-one would even consider opening one without government subsidies.
ScoMo is someone who has always used his personal self-confidence to convince others that he must know something they don’t.
Their acquiescence is always taken advantage of. But Morrison always gets too big for his boots. He starts to act unilaterally and secretly. He compartmentalizes his office. He indulges in favouriteism. He blames others for his mistakes and discards people who are surplus to (his) requirements. Above all his cruelty comes out, and his disloyalty.
Eventually the love affair with ScoMo wears off. People get sick of him.
This is happening now. He will never regain the people’s trust.
Where’s Dutto the alternative LNP PM while this brouhaha is igniting itself across the parched land ?
How’s the PM going to keep Australia safe if the minders have put him back in the too hard basket?
How can you meet and beat if the best you can do is cheat and bleat ?
The bushfires couldn’t get Morrison and his merry men and women to upset their holidays, so how come this morning after a bad opinion poll half the LNP pop up like puppets and jiggle their strings ?
The nose ring for the parade ring remains in the snout of the ABC. Who gave the order to put lipstick on the lips of a floundering PM and his disengenerous government ?
Dodgy tax deductions for workplace-related expenses and fudged claims for investment properties cost the national tax coffers $5.5bn a year, part of tens of billions of missing taxes that experts say could be reduced through better policy.
The Australian Taxation Office’s most recent annual report shows a $30bn “net tax gap” between what the tax office estimates it should be receiving from individuals and businesses, and what it actually does.
Three taxes comprised 90 per cent of the total gap in 2015-16: individuals’ income tax ($17.8bn), corporate income tax ($3.7bn) and the goods and services tax ($5.2bn).
ATO second commissioner Jeremy Hirschhorn, who oversees the tax gap program, said the gap comes down to a mix of deliberate fraud and a failure to comply despite good intentions.
The small business tax gap comprises roughly half the total corporate tax shortfall, and “about 70 per cent of that gap is the black economy — that is deliberate stuff”, Mr Hirschhorn told The Australian. “A chunk of the GST gap is black economy as well — it’s the cash economy and GST refund fraud.
“Apart from that, across the entire system, a lot of it, particularly for individuals, is actually mistakes and misunderstandings of the system.”
READ MORE:ATO at a loss over continuing losses|ATO to stop big funds milking ‘lost’ super cash|ATO on hunt for tax-avoider toys
Nevertheless, those misunderstandings cost the ATO a lot of money every year.
Experts say the $4bn overpayment to individuals for workplace-related expenses stands out as a tax gap that is ripe for reform.
There are nine million such expense claims made annually, and fewer than 1 per cent are subject to audit.
ATO data suggests 30-40 per cent of the claims don’t comply with tax law.
Mr Hirschhorn said workplace expenses were a particular area of concern but the key to “sustainably improving tax performance” in the area wasn’t to conduct an auditing blitz. “There are too many, and they are too small.
“The answer is education and nudging at scale, because most people are trying to do the right thing.”
All up, the tax gap for individuals not in business equates to 6.4 per cent of the total tax take for the category.
This is more than double the experience of similar countries, such as Britain.
That’s a “particularly poor” result, said Richard Highfield, an adviser on tax system design who has worked at both the OECD and the IMF and was a second commissioner to the tax office in the 1990s.
He is also on the ATO’s independent panel, which advises on the tax gap.
“This has to have a legislative response,” he said.
Mr Highfield said he believed the government should get rid of the huge number of small workplace-related expense claims by setting an annual minimum threshold of $2600 and tightening the rules around what could be deducted.
Individuals claiming above that amount would need to itemise their deductions.
The ATO also estimates a $1.5bn shortfall in tax related to individuals’ reporting of rental income and claimed deductions.
With more than two million taxpayers also being property investors, a lack of third-party verification and very few tax audits combine to bedevil compliance in this category.
To increase compliance related to the rental properties, Mr Highfield suggests banks should be made to systematically report to the ATO mortgage interest paid on rental properties.
Similarly, intermediaries such as real estate agents should be required to provide the ATO with customers’ rental income figures. This would allow the tax office to run automated checks on landlords’ tax returns.
Mr Hirschhorn agrees with this prescription, and said the The ATO was also looking at making better use of state-based land data.
If the prescription for improving tax compliance among individuals is via better education, technology and policy, reducing the GST gap requires a different approach. “This is much more about the black economy,” Mr Hirschhorn said.
Not all GST fraud is sophisticated, however. One ambitious fraudster attempted to claim a GST refund of no less than $1.8bn “out of thin air”, as Mr Hirschhorn detailed to a Senate committee hearing in October 2019.
“Our strategies there are much more about how do you eliminate this stuff, not about education and nudging; they are our hard edge.”
Such actions fall under the umbrella of the Black Economy Taskforce, which produced a final report in May 2017.
The report’s findings have led to new legislation, such as a proposed ban on cash payments of more than $10,000 made or accepted by businesses.
“The government has invested significant resources in the ATO’s Black Economy Taskforce, the Tax Avoidance Taskforce and the Phoenix Taskforce to combat organised criminal activity, bolster compliance and further close the tax gap,” the Assistant Treasurer, Michael Sukkar, said.
“The government has also passed laws relating to GST for property developers.”
Despite the billions in missing taxes, Mr Hirschhorn believes the $30bn figure, which accounts for 7-8 per cent of the total tax take, represents a much better result than the headline number would suggest. “On a world scale, that is an excellent result,” Mr Hirschhorn said.
What is clear, however, is that there is no expectation that the ATO could – or would even want to – eliminate the gap altogether.
What’s more, the tax office itself says it would be “uneconomic” to do so.
“You can catch every last dollar [in tax] and force people out of business through the compliance burden — it would be an own goal,” said Neil Warren, the emeritus professor of taxation at the University of New South Wales.
Dodgy tax deductions for workplace-related expenses and fudged claims for investment properties cost the national tax coffers $5.5bn a year, part of tens of billions of missing taxes that experts say could be reduced through better policy.
The Australian Taxation Office’s most recent annual report shows a $30bn “net tax gap” between what the tax office estimates it should be receiving from individuals and businesses, and what it actually does.
Three taxes comprised 90 per cent of the total gap in 2015-16: individuals’ income tax ($17.8bn), corporate income tax ($3.7bn) and the goods and services tax ($5.2bn).
ATO second commissioner Jeremy Hirschhorn, who oversees the tax gap program, said the gap comes down to a mix of deliberate fraud and a failure to comply despite good intentions.
The small business tax gap comprises roughly half the total corporate tax shortfall, and “about 70 per cent of that gap is the black economy — that is deliberate stuff”, Mr Hirschhorn told The Australian. “A chunk of the GST gap is black economy as well — it’s the cash economy and GST refund fraud.
“Apart from that, across the entire system, a lot of it, particularly for individuals, is actually mistakes and misunderstandings of the system.”
Nevertheless, those misunderstandings cost the ATO a lot of money every year.
Experts say the $4bn overpayment to individuals for workplace-related expenses stands out as a tax gap that is ripe for reform.
There are nine million such expense claims made annually, and fewer than 1 per cent are subject to audit.
ATO data suggests 30-40 per cent of the claims don’t comply with tax law.
Mr Hirschhorn said workplace expenses were a particular area of concern but the key to “sustainably improving tax performance” in the area wasn’t to conduct an auditing blitz. “There are too many, and they are too small.
“The answer is education and nudging at scale, because most people are trying to do the right thing.”
All up, the tax gap for individuals not in business equates to 6.4 per cent of the total tax take for the category.
This is more than double the experience of similar countries, such as Britain.
That’s a “particularly poor” result, said Richard Highfield, an adviser on tax system design who has worked at both the OECD and the IMF and was a second commissioner to the tax office in the 1990s.
He is also on the ATO’s independent panel, which advises on the tax gap.
“This has to have a legislative response,” he said.
…
https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/i-think-its-a-load-of-bs-pauline-hanson-wants-climate-change-left-out-of-bushfires-royal-commission/news-story/05b8869789039d7b9ad711f39916b620
The real test for Scrott is yet to come. Once all the Adrenalin stops pumping, the fires fade and media attention drifts away untold thousands will be faced with the hard grind of rebuilding. Scrotty talking a big game is fine and dandy during the “emergency ” phase but when ‘reality’ bears down on so many towns and regions he better be able to deliver the goods. If horror stories start coming out about this fail his approval ratings today will look fantastic in comparison.
The good news is that Morrison has re-ierated that Climate Change is a thing and that it had a part to play in the recent Bushfires. He further acknowledges that people are concerned and that the Government needs to re-visit what practical things they should do to ameliorate the effects. This includes thinking about planning to consider Emission targets but only if it doesn’t affect employment opprtunities in the Regions, undermine our Mining Industry, does not lead to Electricity price rises and does not affect the stability of his Government.
So it’ll be an announcement here and there, the occasional cash splash on a coal oriented research and a lot of actively doing nothing for as long as they can get away with it.
@BernieSanders tweets
When politicians say that climate change is not real, it’s not just that they’re lying.
It’s not just that they’re rejecting science.
They are turning their backs on their own children and future generations.
That’s music to team Fitzgibbons ears …!