Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

A crash in Scott Morrison’s standing finds Labor edging ahead on voting intention, and Anthony Albanese taking the lead on preferred prime minister.

The first Newspoll for the year, and the third under the new YouGov online polling regime, finds Labor opening up a 51-49 lead, after they trailed 52-48 in the poll in early December. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down two to 40%, Labor up three to 36%, the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation down one to 4%. Perhaps more remarkably, Scott Morrison now trails Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister by 43-39, after leading him 48-34 in the previous poll. The damage on Morrison’s personal ratings amounts to an eight point drop on approval to 37% and an eleven point rise on disapproval to 59%. Conversely, Albanese is up six on approval to 46% and down four on disapproval to 37%. The Australian’s report is here; the poll was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1505.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The Guardian has numbers from the first Essential Research poll of the year, but they disappointingly offer nothing on voting intention. What they do provide is corroboration for Newspoll’s finding that Anthony Albanese has taken the lead over Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister, in this case at 39-36, which compares with a 44-28 lead to Morrison when Essential last asked the question in early November. We are told that Scott Morrison is up nine on disapproval to 52% and that Anthony Albanese is up four on approval to 43% – their respective approval and disapproval ratings will have to wait for the full Essential report, which will presumably be with us later today or tomorrow. UPDATE: Morrison is down five on approval to 40%, Albanese is up two on disapproval to 30%. Full report here.

Despite everything, the poll finds 32% approving of Morrison’s handling of the bushfire crisis, which may be related to the fact that his approval rating was down only three among Coalition voters. The Guardian tells us only that 36% strongly disapproved of Morrison’s performance, to which the less strong measure of disapproval will need to be added to produce an equivalent figure for the 32% approval. Fifty-two per cent disagreed that Australia had always had bushfires like those just experienced, and 78% believe the government had been unprepared for them. Efforts to shift blame to the states do not appear to have borne fruit: Gladys Berejiklian’s handling of the bushfires scored 55% approval among New South Wales respondents, while Daniel Andrews was on 58% (these numbers would have come from small sub-samples of around 300 to 400 respondents).

The poll also offers a timely addition to the pollster’s leaders attributes series. The findings for the various attributes in this serious invariably move en bloc with the leaders’ general standing, and Morrison is accordingly down across the board. However, a clear standout is his collapse from 51% to 32% for “good in a crisis”, on which he was up 10% the last time the question was posed in October. Other unfavourable movements related in The Guardian range from a six-point increase in “out of touch with ordinary Australians“ to 62% to a 12 point drop on “visionary” to 30%.

More on all this when the full report is published. The poll was conducted online from Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1081.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,417 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. GhostWhoVotes
    @GhostWhoVotes
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    5m
    #Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 49 (-3) ALP 51 (+3) #auspol
    GhostWhoVotes
    @GhostWhoVotes
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    1m
    #Newspoll Preferred PM: Morrison 39 (-9) Albanese 43 (+9) #auspol
    GhostWhoVotes
    @GhostWhoVotes
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    2m
    #Newspoll Albanese: Approve 46 (+6) Disapprove 37 (-4) #auspol
    GhostWhoVotes
    @GhostWhoVotes
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    2m
    #Newspoll Morrison: Approve 37 (-8) Disapprove 59 (+11) #auspol

  2. I believe Anthony Albanese and the Federal Labor Party have an opportunity to really capitalize on the catastrophic bush-fires. I argue they need to argue for the phasing out of the fossil fuels industry, accompanied by policies to develop ‘Green’ industries which can replace the jobs and especially export income that would lost by doing that. If Labor can do that, then Anthony Albanese can fulfill the potential I see he has to be a truly transformative political leader such as FDR and John Curtin were.

  3. Well the good news for Morrison is that this disaster has only put him behind 49-51.

    The bad news is a lot of people now have him pegged as useless.

  4. Not sure whether to laugh or cry……..laugh because we are back to the same NP just prior to the May election – you know, the poll which was generally proved to be wrong for nearly two years, or cry with disbelief that Miracle Man can be so callously rejected – for whatever worth a PPM taly is these days. I will interested what if anything the Stoke’s Cheer Squad in the West Oz newspaper makes of the above. Rarely, if ever, did the West report on Newspoll but now, as are ardent supporter of Morrison, they have made comment on every NP since the last election.

  5. From previous thread – young L/NP in Toowoomba are thugs in the Fraser Anning style. Extreme RW aggressive group that will end up in the news.
    Typical picking on a female in a library and abusing her in front of children.

  6. Victoria @ #9 Sunday, January 12th, 2020 – 10:11 pm

    I guess mundo has something to say about how the polls are bad for Labor

    Just putting this back out there 😆

    mundo (AnonBlock)
    Sunday, January 12th, 2020 – 9:24 pm
    Comment #1748
    Historyintime @ #1656 Sunday, January 12th, 2020 – 7:11 pm

    Watching Morrison on TV I think he has gotten away with it this time. Maybe the ‘every dog gets one bite’ factor in play. But if he fucks another crisis up he’s in big trouble.

    FMD
    How about if he wins just one more election he’ll be in big trouble.

    For crisakes Labor played softball for brownie points and Scrott has got away with it.
    Miracle Man.
    Let’s just give up.

    ‘Brownie Points’ for Labor will do me just fine for now. 🙂

  7. Greensborough Growler @ #19 Sunday, January 12th, 2020 – 10:17 pm

    DisplayName @ #16 Sunday, January 12th, 2020 – 10:14 pm

    Been here before. I’ll wait until after the next Federal election to believe it.

    Agree. Indicative of a response to current events. But given the next Election is scheduled over two years from now, doesn’t get me over excited.

    Yeah, after what the country has just been through, 51-49 to Labor is hardly Ruddslide stuff. However, hopefully it becomes some good building blocks for a real return to favour.

  8. Now is the time for an ALP bomb thrower, not albo, to really twist the knife on the bushfire response. People are marching for scomo’s removal the ALP will loose again if they let this feeling be about scomo and not the LNP.

  9. C@tmomma @ #24 Sunday, January 12th, 2020 – 10:19 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #19 Sunday, January 12th, 2020 – 10:17 pm

    DisplayName @ #16 Sunday, January 12th, 2020 – 10:14 pm

    Been here before. I’ll wait until after the next Federal election to believe it.

    Agree. Indicative of a response to current events. But given the next Election is scheduled over two years from now, doesn’t get me over excited.

    Yeah, after what the country has just been through, 51-49 to Labor is hardly Ruddslide stuff. However, hopefully it becomes some good building blocks for a real return to favour.

    Popularity comes and goes. But, on going hardwork at the community level is waht delivers.
    It means that Albanese is on the right track but needs to keep on working. He needs to stay with the plan to re-engage those that did not vote Labor last time.

  10. South @10:24.
    ”Now is the time for a ALP bomb thrower, not albo, to really twist the knife on the bushfire response.”

    Labor needs to go strongly negative once the fires quiet down. Appoint an attack dog while Albo remains above the fray. If the Greens could join in attacking tge climate vandals in power that would also be a great help.

  11. Steve777 @ #34 Sunday, January 12th, 2020 – 10:28 pm

    South @10:24.
    ”Now is the time for a ALP bomb thrower, not albo, to really twist the knife on the bushfire response.”

    Labor needs to go strongly negative once the fires quiet down. Appoint an attack dog while Albo remains above the fray. If the Greens could join in attacking tge climate vandals in power that would also be a great help.

    Election now!

  12. I may be missing something but would not the fact that “ signing up “ to a online panel be a requirement for being included in a News poll ( or any poll ) screw the sample somewhat.

    If you take the time to sign up would that not indicate some interest in politics above the great mass of Australians who “ do not give a shit until polling day “ ?

    Surely that would mean that any individual poll taken from a group who have taken the time to sign up would not be a fair representation of overall voting intentions given more and more Australians are turning off politics ?

    Whether it is Newspoll, Essential or whoever any polling taken from a group who have “ signed up” to be polled is fraught with danger in trying to read anything into results and real world feeling.

    How could it be representative and random ?

    I am sure smarter posters will be able to set me right but I am struggling to see the legitimacy of such online polling results and am finding it difficult to accept any polling atm as being indicative of feeling and intention no matter what the result.

    Any help in clearing my confusion would be appreciated.

    Cheers.


  13. Steve777 says:
    Sunday, January 12, 2020 at 10:28 pm
    ..
    Greens could join in attacking the climate vandals in power that would also be a great help.

    Your joking? The Greens want a Liberal government. RDN will be in crises talks.
    Clearly Labor telling the Greens to go and get stuffed is an issue… for the Greens.

  14. I note that Morrison’s 9 point gain in disapproval was matched by a similar rise to 52 in November before falling 4 in the last newspoll. I wonder what that was about?

  15. doyley says:
    Sunday, January 12, 2020 at 10:33 pm

    I may be missing something but would not the fact that “ signing up “ to a online panel be a requirement for being included in a News poll ( or any poll ) screw the sample somewhat.

    Are you suggesting the foundation of statistics ( the sample is random) is broke. Go and wash you mouth out with soap.

  16. doyley:

    I just signed up, and from the questions they have people on their email list from around the world. You also have to identify your demographic info, including postcode, household composition, income, and marital status. This would enable them to obtain input from any voter groups that are lacking or absent in their polling.

  17. I am vindicated yet again and stand astride the blog like a Colossus:

    nath
    says:
    Sunday, January 5, 2020 at 10:39 am
    I’m certain Morrison will take hits on preferred PM, net satisfaction and some leader attributes. I think the only IF is whether this is just concentrated in NSW. Of course this could all fade by the next election or it could become entrenched.

  18. Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
    10m10 minutes ago
    It will be interesting to see what marketing strategies Team Morrison deploys to try and turn around the slump in the PM’s personal numbers. I firmly predict they will fix the situation very quickly.

    They could wheel out Dutton for another Boats! scare campaign. 😆

  19. Tristo says:
    Sunday, January 12, 2020 at 10:12 pm
    I believe Anthony Albanese and the Federal Labor Party…

    Greens may be pure and even may be right but they couldn’t even beat other.

  20. To me the interesting part of this result is not so much the crash in Morrison’s personal ratings, or even the PPM numbers although I am pleasantly surprised by both. What got my attention is the significant jump in Albanese’s personal ratings. We’ve certainly seen before that a crash for one leader by no means necessarily flows to a positive result for the other leader, but in this case it has. I think throughout this whole situation Albo has come across as relatable and this is showing up in his personal numbers. This is positive and gives Albo and Labor a platform to build on, as it shows people are paying attention to Albo.

  21. Gotta say, you DO have to wonder how big a fuck-up the Libs have to preside over to lose more than 3 points 2PP.

    Perhaps if Morrison was caught with a Ronson in his hand actually lighting one of the Gippsland fires he might have lost a couple more?

    Assuming the AllNew™ Newspoll has had the wrinkles ironed out of it, then we may be at least looking at the end of the beginning of ScoMo.

    He was never very much use to anyone, really. Couldn’t get tourists to come here, even WITH Lara Bingle waggling her boobies at them. Has now stuffed up attempt #2 by first heating the country up, then drying it out, then burning it down. All with a backpfeifengesicht face and a confidence far greater than the situation warrants.

    Just as Abbott ran true to form with his nose stuck firmly up the Royal family’s bum, and Turnbull showed us once again the positive side of political ineptitude, so Morrison will prove that, when all is said and done, you can’t keep a good dickhead down, not forever.

    The only thing that scares me is where could they possibly kick him upstairs to, this time?

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