Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

A crash in Scott Morrison’s standing finds Labor edging ahead on voting intention, and Anthony Albanese taking the lead on preferred prime minister.

The first Newspoll for the year, and the third under the new YouGov online polling regime, finds Labor opening up a 51-49 lead, after they trailed 52-48 in the poll in early December. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down two to 40%, Labor up three to 36%, the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation down one to 4%. Perhaps more remarkably, Scott Morrison now trails Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister by 43-39, after leading him 48-34 in the previous poll. The damage on Morrison’s personal ratings amounts to an eight point drop on approval to 37% and an eleven point rise on disapproval to 59%. Conversely, Albanese is up six on approval to 46% and down four on disapproval to 37%. The Australian’s report is here; the poll was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1505.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The Guardian has numbers from the first Essential Research poll of the year, but they disappointingly offer nothing on voting intention. What they do provide is corroboration for Newspoll’s finding that Anthony Albanese has taken the lead over Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister, in this case at 39-36, which compares with a 44-28 lead to Morrison when Essential last asked the question in early November. We are told that Scott Morrison is up nine on disapproval to 52% and that Anthony Albanese is up four on approval to 43% – their respective approval and disapproval ratings will have to wait for the full Essential report, which will presumably be with us later today or tomorrow. UPDATE: Morrison is down five on approval to 40%, Albanese is up two on disapproval to 30%. Full report here.

Despite everything, the poll finds 32% approving of Morrison’s handling of the bushfire crisis, which may be related to the fact that his approval rating was down only three among Coalition voters. The Guardian tells us only that 36% strongly disapproved of Morrison’s performance, to which the less strong measure of disapproval will need to be added to produce an equivalent figure for the 32% approval. Fifty-two per cent disagreed that Australia had always had bushfires like those just experienced, and 78% believe the government had been unprepared for them. Efforts to shift blame to the states do not appear to have borne fruit: Gladys Berejiklian’s handling of the bushfires scored 55% approval among New South Wales respondents, while Daniel Andrews was on 58% (these numbers would have come from small sub-samples of around 300 to 400 respondents).

The poll also offers a timely addition to the pollster’s leaders attributes series. The findings for the various attributes in this serious invariably move en bloc with the leaders’ general standing, and Morrison is accordingly down across the board. However, a clear standout is his collapse from 51% to 32% for “good in a crisis”, on which he was up 10% the last time the question was posed in October. Other unfavourable movements related in The Guardian range from a six-point increase in “out of touch with ordinary Australians“ to 62% to a 12 point drop on “visionary” to 30%.

More on all this when the full report is published. The poll was conducted online from Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1081.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,417 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 4 of 49
1 … 3 4 5 … 49

  1. How bout you AE. Do you agree with Grimace and hope that there will be more fires in LNP areas, you know, cos they got it coming?

  2. Has a Simon Benson column been sighted yet in the GG? He needs to explain once again the importance of the Preferred PM metric …

  3. The utter disaster of the Hunt/Frydenberg/Price/Ley environment ministers has now been laid bare.

    Unfortunately the habit of personalizing species into ‘animals’ and cute and cuddly koalas and partially burned Eastern Grey Kangaroos continues to completely distort the situation.

    What is happening during these fires is a step change in the Anthropocene Extinction Event.
    This is not about rescuing some animals.
    This is about the million species globally that are at risk of extinction.
    The $50 million is a piffle – a mere political salve.

    What has been lost in the rainforest burns is hundreds of thousands of years of evolution. What has been lost during the MDB Drought, ditto. Tens of billions can’t buy that back because time cannot be purchased off the shelf.

  4. Andrew_Earlwood @ #150 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 8:19 am

    “ I noticed that Kevin Rudd is doing videos now and The Guardian is running them. That gets him out to a wider audience. I imagine he puts them on his facebook page as well as on Twitter. He’s a good Labor man at heart.”

    Warming up for ‘Kevin in 2027. The Quickening. There can be only one.’

    I don’t think. 😆

  5. Firefox
    Given the greens behavior and miss information directed towards Labor why should the Greens expect any defense when they are attacked by the senior anti Labor party. It is an internal anti Labor party issue.

    The greens have been more disciplined than the Liberals for sure, Instead of returning fire they have kept up their anti Labor attacks.

  7. Ketan Joshi
    @KetanJ0
    · 39m

    Siemens is citing Matt Canavan in their decision to continue working with Adani, claiming that the May 2019 election was a national referendum on that specific coal mine:

  8. A climate disaster levy could provide the best mechanism to address significant environmental costs, writes Edward Treloar.

    Come on Mr Treloar leave out the weasel words it’s a “climate disaster tax” 🙂

  9. lizzie says:
    Monday, January 13, 2020 at 8:25 am

    Ketan Joshi
    @KetanJ0
    · 39m

    Siemens is citing Matt Canavan in their decision to continue working with Adani, claiming that the May 2019 election was a national referendum on that specific coal mine:

    Oh the Greens have done so well.

  10. frednk

    The trend is interesting, the actual result, not so much.
    _______________________________________

    Yes. The rest of the analysis by posters here is wishful or negative thinking.

  12. “ How bout you AE. Do you agree with Grimace and hope that there will be more fires in LNP areas, you know, cos they got it coming?”

    I, like my gravatar, prefer more direct methods of correcting miscreants; as he had done to the captive Samnites on the Campus Matius whilst giving his report to a somewhat terrified Senate in an adjacent temple. …

    But Alas, in a democracy one has to find a way to bring folk with you. Even if one cannot obtain their vote, one must still have their consent to be governed.

    Besides, as the political zeitgeist presently stands, it is likely that folk in fire affected LNP areas would simply learn the wrong lesson from wildfires let loose: ‘twas the Greenies and arsonists wot dun it’ …

    We need to better.

  14. Another hear hear

    0:36
    Howard Dean
    @GovHowardDean
    ·
    Jan 12
    What “Harry and Meghan” crisis? Leave them alone. This is a “crisis” manufactured by the forever sick UK paparazzi in a society that just voted twice to get out of the EU because they don’t like immigrants and whose two major parties are racist. Fix that and leave M and H alone.
    Quote Tweet

    The Guardian
    @guardian
    · Jan 12
    Urgent talks continue to resolve Harry and Meghan crisis https://theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/j

  15. In this latest chapter of humanity’s ongoing and continually controversial experimentation with time, Brazil, after nearly a century of begrudgingly changing the clocks every few months, has called off daylight saving time. “Even if it was only an hour, it messed with people’s biological clocks,” President Jair Bolsonaro reasoned when he signed the decision last year.

    Now, months later, every day brings another reminder of that decision as summer crests in Latin America’s largest country, and the sky clears at the unconscionable hour of 4:30 a.m., and early morning has the feel of high noon — minus, of course, the beachgoers.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/brazil-eliminated-daylight-saving-time-now-its-light-out-before-5-am-and-people-arent-happy/2020/01/12/266d8e42-32ff-11ea-91fd-82d4e04a3fac_story.html

    Welcome to summer in WA where it is light at 4am. I’ve just returned from a morning walk and watching the sunrise at the beach. The sun technically rose around 5am today but there were still people out and about when I got there at 4.30am.

    I used to be a proponent of daylight saving, but much prefer the light being at the start of the day rather than the end of it. 🙂

  16. Steven @ #135 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 8:08 am

    Interesting The Age online has nothing that I can see ‘above the line’ (ie the home page about the latest Newspoll.

    There appears to be a one minute video

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/labor-overtakes-coalition-in-latest-poll-20200113-p53qwc.html

    The opening scene shows a lady coming through a door – I’m not sure whether she has a phone in her hand or maybe a stun gun.

    Followed by “Falau in Tears” overs bushfires. Me too. 😢

  18. In an election review expected to be released within days, GetUp claims a shared victory in the bid to drive Mr Abbott out of Parliament by backing his replacement Zali Steggall, citing it as a highlight of its campaign.

    The group outlines key lessons, however, from the failure to achieve the same result in its campaigns against Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton in his seat of Dickson, former defence minister Kevin Andrews in Menzies and Health Minister Greg Hunt in Flinders.

    “Our strategy was deliberately bold, and without that boldness, we never would have taken on Tony Abbott in Warringah,” the review says.

    “However, if we had more accurate data on the true state of the election race, we would have moderated our ambition to focus either on fewer seats or a different mix of seats held by hard right MPs.”

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/getup-admits-to-election-campaign-mistakes-20200112-p53qu6.html

  19. Baby Leak really is a piece of shit. Notice the “Centrelink” document in the back pocket of the protester speaking to Scrott ?

    As for the hurrumph’s re Grimace’s comment. Consistently voting for the Kelly’s and the Barnyards etc etc has consequences, one of them is doing SFA about climate change another is lack of preparation for them , sufficient prepping would mean admitting there is a problem . Which means another consequence of voting for all the ‘Kellys’ is more houses,people,bush and animals going up in smoke. What does it take for people to make the connection ?

  20. KayJay

    Followed by “Falau in Tears” overs bushfires. Me too.

    ____________________________________

    But it’s news when a bible bashing bastard of a pentecostalist sheds tears over bushfires.

  21. Given the rabid scapegoating of “greenies” being responsible for the bushfires, it is pleasing to see the Greens had a slight increase within MOE.

    That’s my positive spin.

  22. Baby Leak really is a piece of shit. Notice the “Centrelink” document in the back pocket of the protester speaking to Scrott ?

    It’s actually a poor cartoon, but because it too obviously points out all the memes associated with people who want more intervention on AGW and the protesters from last week. The good cartoonists are way more subtle with their depictions, and the great ones include so much to see in their drawings.

    I really miss Rowe, and hope he returns from leave soon.

  24. @Greg_MarineLab
    ·
    1m
    Fvaaark. So Morrison govt white washing entire fire emergency. Littleproud on @RNBreakfast citing Fitzgibbon re coal. Blaming “shock jocks” for enraging public. So sick of this BS govt. throw them out.

    Did anyone hear this?

  25. Telco, NBN failures during bushfire crisis reveals cracks in regional, rural crisis coverage

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2020-01-13/are-australias-telecommunication-up-to-the-new-kind-of-megafire/11860238

    As fire rushed towards Moruya Heads on the NSW South Coast on New Year’s Eve, Fiona Whitelaw and her family were relying on a wind change to save their house.

    Unsure when it would arrive, they were continuously monitoring weather and fire information — but then mobile coverage, the National Broadband Network (NBN) and the local ABC radio transmitter all dropped out.

    The only communication the Whitelaws had was through their landline, which still operates through the old system of copper cables and can work without power.
    :::
    “[We] put a lot of faith in the technology, and anyone that lives in regional Australia will tell you that that’s probably not worth a pinch of shit.”

  28. Peg

    IMO this is a catastrophic poll for the Greens and for Di Natale in particular.

    They bet their political farm on a single word – coal – and the electorate clearly wants something far more nuanced than that.

  31. Pegasus says:
    Monday, January 13, 2020 at 8:52 am
    Given the rabid scapegoating of “greenies” being responsible for the bushfires, it is pleasing to see the Greens had a slight increase within MOE.

    That’s my positive spin.

    _______________

    Nobody who has the slightest inclination to vote Greens believes that denialist crap, which is designed primary to deflect from the position of the Coalition and its fellow travellers.

    It wouldn’t have had any impact on Greens voting intention.

  32. @Vic_Rollison
    ·
    24s
    It’s not a coincidence that Morrison’s Liberal govt are struggling to mount an authentic and meaningful response to bushfire crisis. Their only experience of govt is making cuts and reducing services. Now they’re being ask to do opposite. It’s like asking a fish to fly.

  34. Confessions @ #170 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 8:42 am

    PvO on RN Breakfast this morning talking Newspoll, the govt’s lack of genuineness with its mea culpas, and how Newspoll is likely overstating the coalition’s 2PP vote in today’s Newspoll

    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/politics-with-peter-van-onselen/11861830

    PVO’s point that prefernce distribution may not be in line with last Election distributions is interesting. Speculation that the Government’s TPP may not be as good as what is published is hard to prove. Also, polls at this time of the year can be unreliable given that many people are on holidays and out of their usual routines. Sure, the Bushfires have had plenty of national Media coverage. But reliable sampling may be a problem as will be the high tune out factor.

    I’m starting to think the high smog problems in Sydney and Melbourne due to the bushfires may be an on going reminder to voters that the government response was inadequate and that Climate Change is something that actually affects their quality of life.

  35. Nobody who has the slightest inclination to vote Greens believes that denialist crap

    I bet there are many Coalition, PHON and Labor supporters who do believe the denialist crap.

  36. Confessions @ #187 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 9:06 am

    About those drag queen protests at the Brisbane library, apparently not LNP members. I’m not convinced.

    ” rel=”nofollow”>:large

    Tim Mander said they had been disaffiliated from the LNP. But, were continuing to use the Liberal Brand illegally. I also read somewhere that Tony Abbott was an honorary Member of the group.

  39. poroti,

    The problem is that climate change is not the number one issue.
    Management of the economy is #1, Health is #2 climate change and environment are #4 and #5.

    If you can’t convince voters that you are going to be at very least no worse than the other mob on issues 1, 2, and 3, then even the worlds best climate change policies won’t help you.

  42. GG

    Yep. The smoke is a constant reminder of the ongoing disaster.

    Btw did you see comment I posted other day regarding community meeting with fire authorities in light of the Plenty Gorge fire?

  43. Damn ! All this inconvenience could have been avoided if only we had of listened to Folau.

    Folau in tears over bushfires

    Israel Folau told his congregation Australians ‘should have asked Jesus for help’ before bushfires ravaged the country.

  44. Thérèse Rein
    @Therese_Rein
    ·
    56m
    Ecology is economy. Ecology is health. Fossil fuel companies are using the playbook of big tobacco. They lobby and lie to maintain the status quo and their profits. But the community can withdraw their permission to act. We can demand govt enable transition to renewables. Now.
    Quote Tweet

    Anthony Albanese
    @AlboMP
    · 1h
    People are breathing the bushfire crisis every single day.

    Medical experts are now calling it a public health crisis.

    We need to treat it as one. https://dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/woman-19-dies-of-asthma-attack-sparked-by-toxic-bushfire-smoke/news-story/6212bb5a65b994a22095796b5312f057

  46. Victoria @ #196 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 9:16 am

    GG

    Yep. The smoke is a constant reminder of the ongoing disaster.

    Btw did you see comment I posted other day regarding community meeting with fire authorities in light of the Plenty Gorge fire?

    No sorry did not see. I hope it was informative. That Plenty Gorge Park is a great resource for the Community. But, there are dangers because of proximity to residential properties. these will need to be managed.

  47. The Review was set up in the expectation that LNP was coasting comfortably and that nothing would change.

    “The current EPBC [Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation] Act review provides an opportunity to enact strong protections for critical habitats and climate refugia for species and ecosystems.”

    It calls for the review, led by the businessman Graeme Samuel, to include the development and implementation of recovery and threat reduction plans. Two years ago there were formal recovery plans for less than 40% of nationally listed threatened species.
    …
    Launching the review of EPBC Act last year, Ley stressed it would “tackle green tape” and reduce project approval delays. Hundreds of scientists have called on the government to use the review to strengthen the law to help address a worsening extinction crisis.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/13/government-to-commit-50m-for-wildlife-affected-by-bushfires-as-green-groups-call-for-action

  48. Daniel Andrews

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/now-is-not-the-time-andrews-won-t-be-drawn-on-victoria-s-emissions-cuts-ahead-of-deadline-20200112-p53qsl.html

    While the Premier said he accepted the grave risks posed by climate change, he controversially commented that people making “ideological points” about the need for tough new climate targets should ensure they do not distract from the emergency relief effort.
    :::
    Former federal MP Greg Combet, who is the state government’s independent adviser on proposed new emissions cuts, has recommended up to 40 per cent reductions on 2005 levels by 2025 and 60 per cent reductions by 2030.
    :::
    Professor Will Steffen, a member of Australia’s Climate Council, said the need for tough targets to limit global warming to less than 2 degrees celsius was not a matter of ideology.

  50. Kevin Bonham quoted in:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/13/scott-morrison-suffers-blow-to-personal-approval-rating-in-first-poll-of-2020

    The pollster Kevin Bonham said Morrison’s plunge from 14 points ahead as preferred prime minister to four behind is “the equal second highest such loss in Newspoll history”, after Paul Keating’s 23% drop against John Hewson after the horror 1993 budget.

    He also said it was “highly unusual” for the current prime minister to trail the opposition leader on preferred prime minister when the two-party-preferred margin was narrow.

Comments Page 4 of 49
1 … 3 4 5 … 49

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *