Newspoll: 50-50

The Coalition’s lead disappears altogether in the latest Newspoll, which also records a resounding bounce in Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings.

Newspoll has turned in a result for its three-weekly federal poll which, if nothing else, shows it’s not letting the May election result prevent it from publishing optimistic-looking numbers for Labor. As related in The Australian ($), the latest poll has the major parties tied on two-party preferred, after four successive results of 51-49 in favour of the Coalition.

The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 40%, with Labor up two to 35%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation up one to 7%. Anthony Albanese enjoys some encouraging movement on personal ratings, with approval up five to 42% and disapproval down seven to 37%. However, Scott Morrison’s ratings are little changed, with approval down one to 46% and disapproval down two to 43%, and his lead as preferred prime minister narrows only marginally, from 47-32 to 46-32.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1682.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,370 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. mikehilliard

    Well, it might, but I hae ma doots. Morrison is the original immovable object on anything that might actually benefit the nation, and only seems to want changes that increase his hold on us, and I haven’t noticed the Nats showing sympathy for anything except mining and water harvesting.

  2. D&M:

    And before anyone @s me, e and π are just constants irrelevant to physical units. You can easily choose a unit system where these constants are set to 1.

    They’re transcendental, and hence I’m not entirely sure this is true.

  3. lizzie

    I’m worried that we’re taking fire reduction techniques used by aborigines in Arnhem Land and applying them to the whole country.

    There has been really very little research done into fire reduction burning (it’s picked up in recent times) – we spend millions of dollars every year burning hundreds and thousands of acres of bush on the basis of limited research.

    Certain areas – such as the highland forests – are clearly not suited to regular burns. Yet we burn them all the same.

    We also ignore some significant differences between aboriginal fire regimes and our own. Aborigines tended to burn off in summer, when nesting for both birds and possums was over. We can’t do that (there’s a huge difference in burning off when you’re the only people for a hundred kilometres and doing so nowadays).

    We had a classic – although unintended – fuel reduction burn with the 2001 fires, which in our area were slow burning with flames you could step over. Yet exactly the same areas burnt again in 2004 and 2007, probably even more fiercely.

    Fuel reduction burns appear to have value in the early stages of a fire, but once it’s crowned, they’re fairly pointless.

    There was a fire expert on morning ABC radio. He pointed out that much of the vegetation which burns well in a bushfire isn’t affected by fire reduction burns, which are not hot enough to ignite them.

    We need a lot more research in this area.

  4. “The Liberals seem clueless as to what socialism is and are only good at selective pandering.”

    In the Liberal-Murdoch dictionary, “Socialist” is a term of abuse directed at opponents, and “socialism” likewise is used to denigrate any policies that go against the interests of their mates and major donors. Synonyms for “socialist” include “poo-poo head” plus a lot of words that I won’t repeat in such polite company.

  5. Player 1,

    If there was a unit system where π could be arbitrarily set to one, it would mean the ratio of a circle’s circumference to its diameter was also one.

    Actually, weird as it is, there are systems in atomic physics that do this – it is a geometrical assumption thing, but it means that converting units related to atoms, and their electric and magnetic fields, between units such as Debyes and the SI equivalent are not interchangeable without a totally different formulation.

    So, you can set π to 1, but you to adjust your equation accordingly – basically all constants get divided by around 3.14.

    No sensible, but it does happen.

  6. Indigenous burning patterns and our current understanding of fire behaviour, will become increasingly irrelevant as global warming intensifies.

  7. EGT,

    D&M:

    And before anyone @s me, e and π are just constants irrelevant to physical units. You can easily choose a unit system where these constants are set to 1.
    They’re transcendental, and hence I’m not entirely sure this is true.

    You are correct that these quantities do not change. they are pure numbers – the ratio of the diameter of a circle to its radius is always 3.14… I think I chose a bad example because it is one of the things that drives me berserk in my field is that people do seem to think that making π set to 1 is OK. The equations work, but I think it is really crap physics.

    But it is a niche argument, and a very bad idea for me to mention it here.

  8. D&M

    I’ve seen natural units or Planck units, and power systems use “per-unit” calculations for switching between reference voltages, but not what you describe. Sounds even more mental!

  9. I note that some posters (above) referred contemptuously to Craig Kelly’s experience as a shopkeeper.

    This is ammo for attacks on elites.

  10. Steve777 says:
    Wednesday, November 13, 2019 at 7:25 pm

    “The Liberals seem clueless as to what socialism is and are only good at selective pandering.”

    In the Liberal-Murdoch dictionary, “Socialist” is a term of abuse directed at opponents, and “socialism” likewise is used to denigrate any policies that go against the interests of their mates and major donors. Synonyms for “socialist” include “poo-poo head” plus a lot of words that I won’t repeat in such polite company.
    ——————————————-
    Or as is the case in America where any sort of government spending gets the label, hearing Americans calling health care socialism would be funny if it wasn’t for the fact they actually believe it.

  11. Zoomster

    Absolutely agree. Aust is not an homogenous country and jumping in without considered research would be fatal. We are only at the start of a long transition to a different way of treating the land; the conversation has only just begun. I’m not holding my breath.

  12. Douglas and Milko @ #1706 Wednesday, November 13th, 2019 – 7:27 pm

    So, you can set π to 1, but you to adjust your equation accordingly – basically all constants get divided by around 3.14.

    Sure, but that’s cheating! It’s not the same as setting π to 1. That’s just scaling everything by 3.14 … (etc).

    As you point out, if you do that then π then just pops up elsewhere. That’s because π cannot be arbitrarily set. The USA tried that – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana_Pi_Bill

    No fair! 🙂

  13. Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, November 13, 2019 at 7:36 pm

    I note that some posters (above) referred contemptuously to Craig Kelly’s experience as a shopkeeper.

    This is ammo for attacks on elites.
    __________________
    Hopefully one day Parliament will be free from people with University degrees and instead filled with shopkeeps, fish and chip operatives and 33 Jacquie Lambie clones.

  14. DM,

    I’ve seen natural units or Planck units, and power systems use “per-unit” calculations for switching between reference voltages, but not what you describe. Sounds even more mental!

    I was actually thinking of natural units when I made that post, but my wording was sloppy. But, the whole field of atomic and molecular physics where I work actually suffers from the inability to convert between different units because of the hidden assumptions about factors of π. and it is actually far worse than natural units, which are crazy because they are removed from the physics, despite what Cambridge mathematicians seem to think.

    Basically we just now need, when we publish, say explicitly what our assumptions are.

  15. A quick flick to the Australia A game yesterday saw us 9–82 and Trevor Hohns on his mobile laughing away.

    Presumably he was on the phone to Stumpy Marsh.

  16. Marsh is doing about as well as Warner, who it is said, is certain to be in the Test side as we no other openers —-apparently.
    I have no brief for Marsh as he is just not up to Test standard, but then he is not alone in the poor ability category…………..
    Just how many others from the t’other side of the Rabbit Proof have been tried and found wanting? Answer: many…..
    Back in the day, 10 out of the 11 in one Test side all came from NSW. But, hey, in those days, no player from WA could even play Sheffield Shield to be even considered……….Wonder where the selectors came from in those days?

  17. Is there any point in responding to Barnaby? Is there any point in responding to Stokes? Is there any point in responding to Di Natale?

    Barnaby Joyce’s claim that changes to the sun’s magnetic fields were linked to the bushfires burning out of control across NSW have been rubbished by climate scientists.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/barnaby-joyce-says-sun-s-magnetic-fields-cause-bushfires-science-says-20191112-p539xb.html

    Billionaire media and mining tycoon Kerry Stokes has called for more hazard reduction burning and warned policymakers not to make “snap judgements” about responding to climate change as bushfires rage across NSW and Queensland.

    The Western Australia-based chairman of television broadcaster Seven West Media and its parent conglomerate Seven Group said he believes a lack of controlled burning is a more pressing concern in dealing with bushfires in Australia than climate change.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/seven-billionaire-kerry-stokes-calls-for-climate-calm-amid-bushfires-20191113-p53a7v.html

    Greens leader Richard Di Natale has side-stepped questions about whether the major parties are “no better than arsonists” after fierce criticism of one of his colleagues for escalating the political attacks over bushfires and climate change.

    Senator Di Natale also fended off questions about whether the Greens could have done more to tackle climate change by voting for an emissions trading scheme a decade ago rather than dooming the plan in the Senate.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/greens-leader-side-steps-questions-over-arsonists-claim-20191113-p53a9t.html

  18. P1,

    So, you can set π to 1, but you to adjust your equation accordingly – basically all constants get divided by around 3.14.
    Sure, but that’s cheating! It’s not the same as setting π to 1. That’s just scaling everything by 3.14 … (etc).

    As you point out, if you do that then π then just pops up elsewhere. That’s because π cannot be arbitrarily set. The USA tried that – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana_Pi_Bill

    No fair!

    Definitely no fair, and that is what I thought in the 6 months of my life I will never get back figuring this stuff out.
    As I said, my language was definitely sloppy 🙂

  19. WA can pick a full team of players who have played for Australia in one or more formats in recent years. Of them, only Jhye Richardson could seriously be considered to be good enough to be selected now.

    Western Australia has been well looked after in the past. Remember Mike Veletta played a couple of test matches for Australia but Jamie Cox and Jamie Siddons didn’t.

  20. Senator Di Natale also fended off questions about whether the Greens could have done more to tackle climate change by voting for an emissions trading scheme a decade ago rather than dooming the plan in the Senate.

    Love it. It’s about time the Greens were held to account for their actions (or non actions) on that front.

  21. Steve777 @ #1722 Wednesday, November 13th, 2019 – 7:01 pm

    First Dog on when to mention That Wherof We Must Not Speak (don’t mention the climate):

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/13/we-mustnt-bring-politics-into-the-disastrous-situation-that-was-created-by-wait-for-it-politics

    Interesting that for once he avoids slagging off at Labor, reserving his ire for the Liberals and Nationals. Perhaps it’s actually starting to sink in to some of the commentariat that the “both sides” crap has done significant damage to the body politic. Should we look for some more green shoots of this awakening?

  22. I verily think that the two prominent old WASCs on this site, combined with their lesser satellites, went overboard with their castigation of Pegasus. That the moderator didn’t demur thereof is worrisome. Perhaps they contribute too much to his coffers? I’ve been warned for committing lesser sins.

    _____________________________________________________________

    Re. Pell’s appeal. If Walker’s that confident, why has there not been a bail application? I mean, he’s not a flight risk, he’s very unlikely to re-offend. If the man’s innocent, as he contends, he should not have to spend another night in solitary.

  23. GG and BB have an issue with strong women Mavis hence their vituperative attacks on Pegasus. I don’t take it too seriously nor should anybody else.

  24. Larissa Waters has now totally distanced herself from comments accusing firefighters of domestic abuse which were made at a press conferene organised by her.

    It appears the researcher’s work the domestic violence campaigner based her comments on showed an increase in domestic violence numbers after a severe bushfire but never accused firefighters of that abuse.

    I think the realisation of the political damage must have sunk in later as she made no sign of discomfort during the press conference.

    Her later rebuttal was very strong.

  25. Lars Von Trier:

    Peg seems to have a tough hide, though she did going missing in action for a while. When those two WASCs start on someone, they’re a somewhat powerful force, others duly falling into sycophantic line.

  26. Larissa Waters has now totally distanced herself from comments accusing firefighters of domestic abuse which were made at a press conferene organised by her.

    What?!

    Jeez, it would seem another woeful day for the Greens. Instead of being able to prosecute a cogent case about the need for action on climate change, they are making themselves look like shrill idiots of the George Christiansen and Barnaby Joyce variety.

  27. Bail is virtually unheard of pending the hearing of an application for special leave or a High Court Appeal

    Justice Kirby granted bail to a Mexican drug lord resisting an extradition to his mother country while he was appealing that decision of the High Court. Other High Court judges overturned Kirby’s decision.

    Captain Dragan of the Serbian army , whose extradition from Australia took close to 10 years, was the subject of an appeal to the High Court so he was at liberty but when he realised he was gonna lose in the High Court he disappeared for a time

  28. I get the impression that the fires are making some Greens euphoric at this “proof” they were right all the time and they perhaps think electoral riches will follow.

    Perhaps this is adversely affecting their judgement.

    While the fires are a graphic demonstration of environmental catastrophe, the suffering they are causing should primarily evoke empathy for the victims, not delight that your political fortunes may improve.

  29. Oh dear, I bet they made this correction pretty quickly!!

    Editor’s note (11/11/2019): An earlier version of this story incorrectly stated that Wayne Martin ran over Elijah Doughty in Kalgoorlie in 2016. This was not the case. Wayne Martin was the Western Australia Chief Justice at the WA Supreme Court where the case was held. The 56-year-old man responsible cannot be identified.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-11/trashed-housing-part-of-larger-issue-of-youth-crime-in-newman/11690928

  30. While the fires are a graphic demonstration of environmental catastrophe, the suffering they are causing should primarily evoke empathy for the victims, not delight that your political fortunes may improve.

    I’m the most disappointed with Jordan Steele-John. Larissa Waters and Adam Bandt have always been lightweights, but I had higher expectations of Steele-John.

    If Greens MPs can’t stop themselves from turning the bushfires into unedifying displays of seriously poor form, perhaps they need to sit quietly on the sidelines until the emergency and high anxiety in affected communities has passed.

  31. shellbell:

    [‘Bail is virtually unheard of pending the hearing of an application for special leave or a High Court Appeal’

    A Mexican drug lord and a Serbian thug are hardly analogous to a prince of the church. The fact is, it’s within the remit of Pell to apply for bail. If he were to have his convictions quashed – more likely, a re-trial – the longer he spends in gaol, the more, if he was to be exonerated, the taxpayer’s liability. There’s nothing precluding a bail application. Indeed, it could somewhat portend the strength of his appeal.

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