Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

The fourth Newspoll since its wrong call at the election continues to credit the Coalition with only a modest lead on two-party preferred, with the minor parties continue to lift and Scott Morrison recording the opposite of a US visit bounce.

The fourth Newspoll since the federal election credits the Coalition with a 51-49 two-party lead, unchanged on the last poll three weeks ago, with both major parties down on the primary vote – the Coalition by one to 42%, and Labor by two to 33%. The Greens and One Nation are both up a point, the former to 13% – their best result from Newspoll since 2015 – and the latter to 6%.

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have deteriorated, either despite or because of his activities in the United States last week, his approval down two to 47% and disapproval up four to 43%. Anthony Albanese has bounced back four on approval to 39% after a six-point drop last time, but the report in The Australian does not relate his disapproval rating (UPDATE: Steady at 40%). Morrison’s preferred prime minister reading goes from 48-28 to 50-31, as respondents apparently becoming more inclined to pick a side.

The poll was presumably conducted as usual from Thursday to Sunday – no sample size is provided, but the norm is around 1600. More to follow.

UPDATE: The sample was 1658, of which 900 came from online surveys and 758 from automated phone polling. Also featured is a question on which relationship Australia should prioritise out of the United States and China, who came in at 56% and 25% respectively. The split was 70-18 among Coalition supporters, 46-32 for Labor, 60-24 among men and 51-26 among women.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,439 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

  1. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, October 2, 2019 at 9:05 am


    It’s called reality. It’s a Queensland Labor Government
    Not a Greens one.
    Stop whining over citizens calling a government to account.

    Don’t get upset when the gas guzzler convoy gets treated with the contempt it deserves.

  2. Vic:

    Did you catch the clip of Rick Wilson I posted yesterday responding to all the news of yesterday/Monday? He said he expects people to either start coming clean and testifying and/or taking out second mortgages and lawyering up.

  3. Impeachment Is Weakening And Sucking The Strength Out Of Trump

    Donny Deutsch said that the impact of impeachment is visible and is weakening Donald Trump.

    Deutsch said on MSNBC’s Deadline White House. “When you see him now, he looks weak. He has the droopy days sometimes reading off the teleprompter, always what he had, the one asset he’s had, the Democrats don’t come forward with, is strength. Right now you’re not seeing it. The camera doesn’t lie. He’s feeling weak. He’s looking weak. For the first time, I look at this president and say, he’s really vulnerable.”

  4. Adam Schiff
    Any effort by Sec. Pompeo to intimidate or prevent witnesses from testifying will add to evidence that the Trump Admin is obstructing Congress.

    Given Pompeo’s own potential role in the affair, it will also create the inference that he is trying to cover up illicit activity.
    Quote Tweet

  5. Hmm

    Seth Abramson
    Every analyst is calling this “highly unusual” and it sure is
    Quote Tweet

    · 4m
    The State Department’s inspector general requested an urgent briefing on Ukraine with senior congressional staff

  6. The decision in NSW was mostly made on the basis of the proposed mine’s impacts on agriculture and water, heritage values and inter generational cost benefit grounds. This has been pointed out more than once but guytaur persists in ignoring the reasoning in the judgment.

    Labor has not proposed to change the powers of the NSW Commission. The inference by guytaur that Labor has done ‘something’ is just mischievous and misleading, as is almost invariably the case with his posts.–statement-of-reasons-for-decision.pdf


    The Commission has considered all the Material before it, as set out in paragraph 78. The Commission is required to consider the Project as submitted by the Applicant. The Commission has also considered the Recommended Revised Project as a potential modification to the Project within the meaning of section 4.38(1)(a) of the EP&A Act. The Project and Recommended Revised Project have been assessed in accordance with the current statutory and policy framework as set out in this Statement of Reasons, notwithstanding that the Commission’s determination under section 4.38 of the EP&A Act is in respect of the Project only.

    The Commission has considered the merits of both the Project and Recommended Revised Project and finds that:
    • neither the Project nor the Recommended Revised Project are compatible with land use objectives (b) and (c) of the MWR LEP 2012 and the objective of the CW&O Regional Plan (see paragraph 376);
    • the groundwater impacts would be unacceptable because: aquifer recharge events are infrequent leading to long term declines in groundwater levels over prolonged dry periods; drawdown at the Project Site exceeds the AIP thresholds of 2m; the groundwater system will reach a new equilibrium within 100-150 years; and there is insufficient information before the Commission and, therefore, uncertainty as to whether the ‘make good’ requirements are met (see paragraph 297);
    • the Commission does not accept that there is evidence to support the Applicant’s claim that the 423.1 ha of BSAL impacted by the Project – nor the 400.43 ha of BSAL impacted by the Recommended Revised Project – can be rehabilitated to BSAL-equivalent (see paragraph 402);
    • due to the level of disturbance and the fact that the current landscape is undisturbed, the Commission does not consider that a recreated landscape will retain the aesthetic, scenic, heritage and natural values of the current landscape (see paragraph 487);
    • the Tarwyn Park Complex is of heritage significance. The Commission finds that the Project has unacceptable impacts on the heritage values of the Tarwyn Park Complex which have not been addressed by the Applicant. However, the Commission finds that the adverse direct impacts on the heritage values of the Tarwyn Park Complex have been addressed and mitigated as far as practicable in the Recommended Revised Project (see paragraph 483);
    • the Aboriginal cultural heritage assessment has not been greatly advanced since the PAC Review Report, and therefore there is insufficient evidence before the Commission for it form a view on the impacts on Aboriginal heritage (see paragraph 516);
    • the Recommended Revised Project will slightly reduce the GHG emissions compared to the Project. However, the Commission is of the view that the Applicant has not minimised Scope 1, 2 and 3 GHG emissions to the greatest extent practicable as required under Clause 14(1)(c) of the Mining SEPP. The Commission also finds that there are no offset measures proposed by the Applicant in either the Project or Recommended Revised Project from the Applicant

    (see paragraphs 696).
    • the cumulative environmental impact of the Project and Recommended Revised Project needs to be considered when weighing up the acceptability of GHG emissions associated with the mine. The Commission finds that it is rational to refuse fossil fuel developments with greater environmental, social and economic impacts than fossil fuel developments with lesser environmental, social and economic impacts as this not only achieves the goal of not increasing GHG emissions by source, but also achieves the collateral benefit of preventing those greater environmental, social and economic impacts (see paragraph 692).
    • the Applicant has proposed sufficient measures in accordance with the Biodiversity Conservation Act 2016 to avoid, minimise and mitigate impacts to biodiversity. However, the Commission notes that meeting these requirements will result in the loss of 288 ha of BSAL being available for agriculture use (see paragraph 535);
    • the Applicant could reinstate Equine CIC following closure of the mine and rehabilitation of the Project Site (excluding the use of 515 ha of Equine CIC for biodiversity offsets).
    • the Project and Recommended Revised Project’s impacts to transport could be managed with appropriate conditions. The Commission accepts the findings of ARTC confirming that the current rail network has the capacity to accommodate the additional tonnage of product coal to be produced by the Project and Recommended Revised Project (see paragraph 557 and 558);
    • the air quality impacts resulting from the Project and the Recommended Revised Project are acceptable (see paragraph 573);
    • noise and blasting impacts resulting from the Recommended Revised Project would be acceptable and that the Department’s Final Recommended Conditions provide appropriate safeguards for monitoring and managing impacts (see paragraph 608);
    • surface water from the mine water could be effectively managed in surface storages and the mined underground workings without the need to discharge to receiving waters (see paragraph 323);
    • suitable mitigation measures have been proposed by the Applicant to address the potential visual impacts of the Recommended Revised Project on surrounding residences (see paragraphs 624 and 625);
    • subsidence impacts associated with the Project and the Recommended Revised Project are able to be minimised, mitigated or at least compensated for to an acceptable standard (see paragraph 646);
    • the Project and the Recommended Revised Project would result in a net economic benefit to NSW during the operation of the mine. However, the Commission is of the view that the distribution of costs and benefits over and beyond the life of the mine is temporally inequitable in that the economic benefits accrue to the current generation and the environmental, agricultural and heritage costs are borne by future generations. The Commission also finds that there is a reasonable level of uncertainty in the estimation of the economic benefits of the Project and Recommended Revised Project (see paragraphs 783 and 784);
    • the Project and the Recommended Revised Project are inconsistent with objects (a), (b) and (f) of EP&A Act (see paragraph 813); and
    • the Project is not in the public interest because it is contrary to the principles of ESD – namely intergenerational equity because the predicted economic benefits would accrue to the present generation but the long-term environmental, heritage and agricultural costs will be borne by the future generations. (see paragraphs 806).

    In determining the development application for the Project, the Commission has taken into account all of the matters in this Statement of Reasons, including the anticipated benefits and adverse impacts of the Project, and on balance has reached the following conclusion.

    For all the reasons outlined in this Statement of Reasons for Decision (not limited to those set out in this Conclusion), the Commission has determined to refuse consent for the Project dated 18 September 2019.

  7. Neither of these dolts understands the danger of getting involved in US domestic politics:

    [‘Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott weighed into the controversy, saying he would have done the same as Morrison under the same situation.

    “As Scott Morrison says we normally cooperate with friendly governments, that’s just the way we are,” Abbott told journalists at the Conservative Party conference in Manchester.

    “I’m very happy with everything that Scott Morrison said and I would say exactly the same thing in similar circumstances.’]

    This is how Abbott thanks Morrison for his appointment to the board of the Australian War Memorial.

  8. IR


    The NSW courts got it wrong. The Climate Council got it wrong. Sir David Attenborough got it wrong. Greta Thunberg got it wrong.

    It’s all a Green Party plot to lose Labor another election with another convoy like stunt.

    Repeating your propaganda does not make it true.

  9. Re Socrates @6:47AM.
    “Two obvious question re: the banks and interest rate cuts – 1. if banks employ far fewer staff today (lower costs) how come their margin between borrowing and lending rates is larger now than it was in the sixties? 2. if banks in Europe can keep dropping rates as they approach zero, why can’t they here?”

    Also, the banks didn’t have an array of fees and charges before the 1980s. They also had to pay staff to serve customers – no ATMs. They paid 3.75% on everyday transaction accounts.

    I think the key is a disfunctional market. The banks might not be colluding outright, but there seems to be very little competition. We have the big four plus little players. If allowed, the Big four would quickly become the Big Two.

  10. Our whole social security system is a shambles. No security. No social support.

    jeremy poxon @JeremyPoxon
    Over the years, I’ve heard a bunch of horror stories about Salvos’ treatment of LGBTIQ Work for the Dole participants – from forcing queer workers to remove “YES” marriage equality badges (which happened on my site), to refusing to allow trans women to use female bathrooms

  11. guytaur…..Above is the concluding excerpt – the determination – of the commission. This is not propaganda. Read it. The whole thing is interesting. It is a lot better organised than your ranting.

  12. RI

    Repeating your propaganda does not make it true.

    The NSW government disagrees with you. That’s why they are talking legislation.

    You need to take the tin foil hat off

  13. guytaur

    You’re the one who was holding up the NSW court decision as an expert decision which couldn’t be questioned. Now it’s being pointed out to you that it doesn’t say what you think it did, you’re now calling it ‘propaganda’.

  14. guytaur….read the determination….it is very clear.

    I doubt the NSW government or Labor disagree or agree with me. They do not know of my existence.

  15. Steve777,
    Another difference between the banks of today and those of the Sixties, is that the CBA and various State Banks were in public hands. Their brief was to act in the public interest.

  16. Must tidy up those muddy mangroves and replace them with nice neat canals. And what use is grass?

    Australia’s mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrass meadows are absorbing about 20m tonnes of carbon dioxide every year, according to a major new study that is the first to measure in detail the climate benefits of the coastal ecosystems.

    But the study, published in the journal Nature Communications, warns that degradation of these “vegetated coastal ecosystems” was already seeing 3 million tonnes of CO2 per year being released back into the atmosphere.

    The study reveals Australia’s vast coastlines represent between 5% and 11% of all the so called “blue carbon” locked up in mangroves, seagrasses and tidal marshes globally.

    Some 44 scientists from 33 different research institutions collaborated on the study, which began in 2014.

  17. Zoomster

    It was you pointing out the NSW government is not for stopping coal as a correction to my post.

    You cannot have it both ways

    I believe the reporting and the NSW government reaction. Not propaganda by RI.

  18. frednk @ #1194 Wednesday, October 2nd, 2019 – 9:02 am

    Coal is finished

    It just continually astonishes me how briefly, yourself, and a few others here are so sure that “coal is finished”, but won’t actually lift a finger to either (a) stop new coal mines opening, or (b) put any disincentives in place of the use of existing coal for power generation.

    You claim to be all for “renewables”, but you squeal like stuck pigs whenever the idea of a carbon price is mooted, even though this would encourage the rapid replacement of coal by renewables.

    You can’t seem to grasp the idea that even if the use of coal were declining (which worldwide it is not), we would still need to work harder to make it decline faster if we want to minimize global warming. Because it is not about coal, and it is not about gas, and it is not even about renewables. It is about carbon.

    Is it any wonder that some might question your sincerity and your motives?

  19. IR,

    That’s where the attack on all proposed mining should be.

    You establish the appropriate environmental benchmarks and if a proposed mine cannot meet them, then they’re stuffed.

    The parts of the environmental approvals for the Adani mine, around water usage and groundwater impact, that I’ve read, seemed very indefinite and uncertain about its impact in these areas.

    It was very hard to see how they justified that they were meeting the requirements when things like the impact on groundwater was left to ongoing monitoring and assessment.

    Surely this sort of uncertainty needs to be clarified before an approval is given!

  20. lizzie….the report on the mangroves and marshes is very interesting…..a further example of the damage being done in the marine environment by atmospheric carbon overdosing. These systems are huge, but nevertheless are easily damaged…

  21. The single best thing to do with respect to coal is to drive the uptake of renewables. I’m not going to bore myself or any other bludger by reiterating the argument for this.

  22. PO….if you want to stop mines, go right ahead. You have failed to persuade me of the merits of your case. But go right ahead. Knock yourself out.

  23. To me the non-appealable refusal the Bylong Coal mine was a great relief. The Bylong valley is a beautiful rich place. The refusal came on the back of the Rocky Hill mine refusal close to Gloucester so the NSW Minerals Council (NMC) is really pissed at the IPC now. The NMC was very supportive of the IPC prior to the two refusals.
    I have heard several NMC advertising campaign adds (TTEO “destroyed 1100 jobs” etc etc) on Hunter Valley radio stations in recent days. I have no idea how widespread the campaign is though.

  24. An interesting article about recent State Dept IG efforts.

    As for mangroves. I once managed teams doing work in mangroves on the NSW nth coast. We were instructed by the Environment dept that we could not break a branch. This was not coming from greenies… this was by demand from local fisheries who knew way back then of the importance of mangroves.

    As for solar, I am in the market for panels and have noticed a huge drop in prices for mid tier quality known brand panels.

  25. Gareth @ #1079 Wednesday, October 2nd, 2019 – 9:37 am

    Trump is a Gemini, sharing a birthday with Boy George, Che Guevera and myself.

    Great Scott ❗ Why was I not told.

    Yesterday was International Day of Older Persons. I am expecting delayed cards, phone calls and flowers during the course of the day.

    I had intended to post Mr. Morrison’s info (he is, apparently, a Taurus) but thought that may trigger snide remarks. But for the enlightened and romantic ones among us —-

  26. Confessions…..William described me as Uniquely Insufferable. Good nom, I thought. So I changed to UI. But William asked me to change it because he now considers I’m not unique. He thinks Boer is at least comparably Insufferable. This is very high praise. Boer is a legend. So now I’m merely Repeatedly Insufferable. RI.

    I like it. The more the Labor-hostile trolls suffer the better it is.

    William has taken exception to the Libling/Lib-Kin/Lib-Lib tags. I’ve dropped them.

  27. I did wonder if it was an intentional leak.

    Tom NicholsVerified account@RadioFreeTom
    14m14 minutes ago
    The White House probably didn’t object to that alligator and moat story getting out, because Rube Nation loves that crap.

  28. This is total projection. He’s the one orchestrating a slow moving coup.

    Donald J. TrumpVerified account@realDonaldTrump
    28m28 minutes ago
    As I learn more and more each day, I am coming to the conclusion that what is taking place is not an impeachment, it is a COUP, intended to take away the Power of the….

    Donald J. TrumpVerified account@realDonaldTrump
    29m29 minutes ago
    ….People, their VOTE, their Freedoms, their Second Amendment, Religion, Military, Border Wall, and their God-given rights as a Citizen of The United States of America!

  29. guytaur

    The ‘propaganda’ you refer to is the actual court decision, so linking an article about the actual court decision doesn’t prove anything.

    Interesting how you abandon your defence of the NSW court decision when it turns out it didn’t say what you thought it did.

  30. ‘Firefox says:
    Wednesday, October 2, 2019 at 8:23 am

    “The notion that ‘men like Trump’ are ‘rattled’ by Thunberg et al is ludicrous.”


    That’s where you’re wrong. Trump may be the present but she is the future. A future full of confident, progressive, modern, empowered women like Thunberg is what conservatives fear most of all. The fact that she’s out there schooling them at such a young age would be absolutely driving them nuts. She represents everything that they hate.’

    I know you are a correct line running dog of the local agitprop front, and good on you for trying, but show me the slightest evidence that Trump is ‘rattled’ by Thunberg.

  31. Zoomster

    Nice spin. You obviously did not read the article or the court decision.

    It specifically refers to Greenhouse Gas Emissions. It’s why it made such news.

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