Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

The fourth Newspoll since its wrong call at the election continues to credit the Coalition with only a modest lead on two-party preferred, with the minor parties continue to lift and Scott Morrison recording the opposite of a US visit bounce.

The fourth Newspoll since the federal election credits the Coalition with a 51-49 two-party lead, unchanged on the last poll three weeks ago, with both major parties down on the primary vote – the Coalition by one to 42%, and Labor by two to 33%. The Greens and One Nation are both up a point, the former to 13% – their best result from Newspoll since 2015 – and the latter to 6%.

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have deteriorated, either despite or because of his activities in the United States last week, his approval down two to 47% and disapproval up four to 43%. Anthony Albanese has bounced back four on approval to 39% after a six-point drop last time, but the report in The Australian does not relate his disapproval rating (UPDATE: Steady at 40%). Morrison’s preferred prime minister reading goes from 48-28 to 50-31, as respondents apparently becoming more inclined to pick a side.

The poll was presumably conducted as usual from Thursday to Sunday – no sample size is provided, but the norm is around 1600. More to follow.

UPDATE: The sample was 1658, of which 900 came from online surveys and 758 from automated phone polling. Also featured is a question on which relationship Australia should prioritise out of the United States and China, who came in at 56% and 25% respectively. The split was 70-18 among Coalition supporters, 46-32 for Labor, 60-24 among men and 51-26 among women.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,439 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

  1. RI
    says:

    I like it. The more the Labor-hostile trolls suffer the better it is.
    __________________________
    which apparently includes the owner of this blog, to whom you promised it would be better if you went away. Your abuse of his hospitality has truly reached an insufferable level.

  2. Confessions @ #1246 Wednesday, October 2nd, 2019 – 10:10 am

    Donald J. TrumpVerified account@realDonaldTrump
    28m28 minutes ago
    As I learn more and more each day, I am coming to the conclusion that what is taking place is not an impeachment, it is a COUP, intended to take away the Power of the People, their VOTE

    Says the man who got 3 million fewer votes than his opponent but was happy to take the win anyways. 🙂

  3. nath says:
    Wednesday, October 2, 2019 at 10:19 am
    RI
    says:

    I like it. The more the Labor-hostile trolls suffer the better it is.
    __________________________
    which apparently includes the owner of this blog, to whom you promised it would be better if you went away. Your abuse of his hospitality has truly reached an insufferable level.

    Thank you.

  4. guytaursays:
    Wednesday, October 2, 2019 at 10:18 am

    Zoomster

    Nice spin. You obviously did not read the article or the court decision.

    It specifically refers to Greenhouse Gas Emissions. It’s why it made such news.

    And if you remove that reference, the Court’s decision would have been?

  5. RI

    Quite clearly your propaganda is failing when facts are pointed out to you.
    It was the climate change part of the decision that put it into the news in a big way.

    The news was all about the new precedent set.

    That’s why you are peddling propaganda

  6. Seems unlikely that a state body could have the power to impose conditions like this (as said by the Guardian)

    [In August, the NSW Independent Planning Commission approved the expanded United Wambo coal project near Singleton but as a condition said the coal could only be exported to countries that have ratified the Paris agreement.]

  7. ‘The news was all about the new precedent set.’

    Except the article you keep referring to specifically says it doesn’t set a precedent.

    Did you read it?

  8. zoomstersays:
    Wednesday, October 2, 2019 at 10:29 am

    ‘The news was all about the new precedent set.’

    Except the article you keep referring to specifically says it doesn’t set a precedent.

    Did you read it?

    It’s the vibe! 🙂

  9. zoomster

    From the article.

    In his judgment, Preston explicitly cited the project’s potential impact on climate change, writing that an open-cut coalmine in the Gloucester Valley “would be in the wrong place at the wrong time”.

    Tasmania is burning. The climate disaster future has arrived while those in power laugh at us
    Richard Flanagan
    Richard Flanagan
    Read more
    “Wrong place because an open cut coal mine in this scenic and cultural landscape, proximate to many people’s homes and farms, will cause significant planning, amenity, visual and social impacts,” he wrote.

    “Wrong time because the GHG [greenhouse gas] emissions of the coal mine and its coal product will increase global total concentrations of GHGs at a time when what is now urgently needed, in order to meet generally agreed climate targets, is a rapid and deep decrease in GHG emissions. These dire consequences should be avoided. The project should be refused.”

    In a “first of its kind” hearing, the EDO had argued that the mine should be refused in part because of its impact on Australia’s commitments to the Paris climate agreement.

    As I said nice spin. The propaganda from RI mentions none of that.

  10. Yes, guytaur, read it in the context of the judgment as a whole, rather than the cut and pasting of a journalist.

    And note the article goes on to say the decision does not set a precedent, as you claim it does.

  11. zoomster

    Yeah the two court cases so do not set a precedent the NSW government is considering legislation to override the decision.

    The specific reference in the article to the Paris Climate Targets are nothing and set no precedents in Australia’s court system Got it.

  12. In Britain since the Brexit referendum, people have flocked increasingly to the radical sides on this issue. The Brexiters towards a ‘No Deal’ Brexit position, while Remainers towards either a Peoples Vote and increasingly Revoking Article 50.

    In Australia I am beginning to see people flocking to the radical sides on the issues of Climate Change. On one side you those who want to build more dams, open more coal mines, drill for more gas and deny climate change is happening, which many Coalition politicians are in favor of and Morrison knows this very well. On the other side you have people who want the fossil fuel industry in this country shutdown, the Greens are on this side although towards the more radical end.

    I argue Labor cannot afford to be ‘Sitting on the Fence’ on this issue. Because like what has happened to Labor Party support in Britain over Jeremy Corbyn’s ‘Sitting on the Fence’ , where it has declined and the Liberal Democrats have profited over their Radical Remain stance. The same is going to happen to Labor support, it is going to decrease, while Greens support will increase. For Labor this risks it losing quite a number of lower house seats (including Albanese’s) to the Greens at the next election.

    While I am confident that the government is going to clearly be for the other side in this debate. Thereby shoring up it’s support. So Labor needs to take sides in this debate, even if they don’t advocate the most radical policies. Which is the strategy Scott Morrison I argue has adopted, being seen on the side of the Climate Change deniers and people with a coal fetishes. However on the other-hand not advocating the most radical stances.

    I argue Labor taking a side on the issue of Climate Change, will attract Urban Liberal voters, who are for taking action on climate change. They are the equivalents in this country of Tory voters, but Remainers who have drifted to the Liberal Democrats. They are enough to win an election. Because whatever Labor voters are on the side of the climate change deniers they have drifted to the Coalition and Right-Wing Populist Parties.

  13. guytaur

    Yep, I have – you don’t understand how the different kinds of court operate. Fair enough.

    You still need to show, however, why the NSW government’s decisions proves that Labor is moving to the right.

  14. This is total projection. He’s the one orchestrating a slow moving coup.

    This was always going to be how Trump spun an impeachment. And it is only the start. Considering who he is pitching this spin to… it is scary stuff. Fox needs to get a handle on it quick and dump cold water on every fire he tries to start – rather than fanning the flames that some of them currently are doing.

  15. Tristo

    Labor has to prove its not sitting on the fence. That means no Carmichael Coal Mining. Its phasing out an industry not shutting it down. The language makes a difference.

    Thus no new coal mines as the climate strike people around the world demanded.

    Thats not ignoring the continuing role coal plays while we transition as fast as possible.

    As I said to Dandy last night I think we need to win the energy race on solar and other renewable technologies so we can replace the loss of income that export market represents.

    Its why I want a Carbon Price. Or even tax if you include a fixed price.

    We need to be first to have the economic future and avoid becoming the poor white trash of Asia. We can’t just be a quarry we need manufacturing in this country

  16. Tristo

    I want to see the environmental movement focussing its energies where it can do the most good, rather than running on populist memes.

    For example, there is a good case for (at least in the short term) extracting gas.

    And the lack of focus on brown coal worries me, particularly when the current Greens leader comes from this State and should be across the issues.

  17. Tristo
    The thing is Labor has already done a lot more than the Greens will ever do to get us moving towards renewable solutions.

    The problem now is that the Greens have made re-newables a political graveyard. The question is what is Labor to do about it.

  18. The Greens can’t win Grayndler without Liberal preferences, and even if the Liberals were to reverse their preferencing direction it would take a big swing.

  19. @guytaur

    I fully agree, that is the best strategy, it is like the British Labour Party offering a People’s Vote or even a second referendum arguing that the result was too close in the first place.

    It is more a matter of the message than the substance of the policies. Labor does not need to be as radical as the Greens. However it needs to be seen on the side of taking action on Climate Change. Because if it doesn’t the Greens are going to win many Labor voters and to a lesser degree Liberal voters.

  20. I’m old enough to remember the days when Labor was seen as a radical party that attracted the young and idealistic. A distant memory now.

  21. @Ante Meridian

    Graylnder is the sort of seat so is neighboring Sydney, where a considerable number of Liberal voters who are for action on climate change, as well as Labor voters would drift to the Greens. The Greens could score a higher enough primary vote, so they don’t need too many preferences to win the seat.

    The Liberals are also under threat by the Greens in electorates like say Kooyong, Higgins, Ryan and Wentworth. However the Greens threat for them is not anywhere near the degree, as it is for Labor.

  22. Tristo,

    I agree that Grayndler is likely to drift the Greens’ way, but they need a huge surge, not a drift. It’s out of reach, at least for the foreseeable future.

  23. Tristo

    Wentworth is a stretch. It may go independent again but I doubt Wentworth is going to go Green.
    I can’t comment too much on Victoria but its hard to project as we saw with the last election the voters are volatile and as likely to vote LNP after their right wing minority party.

    Thats what spooked Labor. They thought the parking in a minor party meant that unengaged voters would like engaged voters go for Labor.

    We won’t know until the last few days of the campaign how the undecided voters will go. All we do know is that the ground is shifting under the LNP.
    Labor might just be finally winning the economic argument.
    That means advocating for renewable and manufacturing as they have calculated is the right decision they just need to keep coal out as an issue. Approving the mine won’t do that. It will just kick the can along the road a bit.

  24. @Ante Meridian

    In the opinion polls Greens support has increased noticeably in recent months. I can’t see no reason why it will not increase steadily over the term of this parliament. I thought Greens support would peak at around say 15%. However now I am convinced it will reach 20%, even maybe 25% in three years, if Labor is seen on ‘sitting on the fence’ on that issue. Normally I don’t pay attention to boasts by Greens senators such as Di Natale. However I believe if the right circumstances occur, this is very possible.

    Because the same process of people taking sides on Brexit and the Liberal Democrats profiting electorally as a result, which happened in Britain. I believe is already starting to happen here in Australia, with the Climate Change issue.

  25. However now I am convinced it will reach 20%, even maybe 25% in three years, if Labor is seen on ‘sitting on the fence’ on that issue.

    Sitting on the fence is what Labor did last election. Now they’re nearly as pro-coal as the Libs. Especially in QLD. 🙁

  26. Regarding the urgent meeting request by the State Dept IG….
    According to wiki…. Steve “Linick is the senior official responsible for identifying operational risks within the Department of State and the U.S. Agency for Global Media, assessing the sufficiency of internal controls, and conducting administrative and criminal investigations of waste, fraud, mismanagement, and misconduct. He is responsible for providing oversight to more than 70,000 Department of State and U.S. Agency for Global Media employees, 270 overseas missions and other facilities worldwide, and more than $70 billion in Department of State, U.S. Agency for Global Media, and foreign assistance resources. He also serves as the Associate Inspector General for designated overseas contingency operations”
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Linick

    As it comes soon after his report condemning the political influence, pressure and retaliation being placed on State Dept staff, we could expect some interesting goss from this meeting.

  27. Grayndler would need a much less formidable ALP member than Albanese who received a 5% swing in his favour on primary votes in 2019 and maybe someone less pinko than Casey to allure Libs preferences

  28. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, October 2, 2019 at 10:59 am
    Tristo

    Labor has to prove …..

    …that it is not even slightly Green-tinted. The greater the distance between Labor and the Greens the more success they will have in rebuilding their plurality and being competitive in Federal elections.

  29. zoomster

    Yes Labor needs to win votes from Liberals. Labor also does need to keep hold of its base.
    Thinking Labor can win the Liberal voters by moving right is to lose sight of the fact that the Liberal voters are volatile. More so than the Nationals as we saw with Wentworth Warringah confirming the long term trend of loss of major party support.

    The moderate Liberals are for Climate Change.
    With Labor winning the economic argument Labor can win those voters.
    Labor can win those voters and talk about tax increases. They just have to make sure any tax increase includes them in its benefits so the net cost goes down.

    Thats the universal appeal of Medicare that wins Liberal voters over. Labor was right to use that I just think they should have included teeth as well as cancer.
    Talk about a wealth tax or something like that Warren is and say an amount above it will apply.
    No grandfather clauses. Nothing that can diminish the crystal clear message of the benefits coming from the tax increase for those voters.

    Directly link the tax increase to the benefit. Its how you are paying for it.

  30. Socrates etc re banking (lending “margins” etc)

    The fundamental thing is that loans create deposits, not (as is usually thought) the other way around. Banks first write loans, then attempt to backfill in various ways (including soliciting deposits). This is of course highly unusual and counter intuitive, and has strange consequences.

  31. What ultimately resulted in the end of Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership of the Liberal Party, was his position on Climate Change and the proposed measures.

    His party’s backroom opposed it mainly, because they saw that One Nation et all support would surge, since they are hardcore climate change deniers and fossil fuel fetishists. After seeing the potential signs of this happening in the Longman by-election. I don’t believe Morrison is that stupid to repeat what Malcolm Turnbull did.

  32. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, October 2, 2019 at 11:36 am
    zoomster

    Yes Labor needs to win votes from Liberals.

    ….and from the pop-left….Labor have to score runs on both sides. This is the mission.

  33. RI

    Sitting on the fence about coal and kicking the can down the road won’t win over the “pop left”.

    I suspect science believers are not populists. That is they believe in accepting and understanding the science.

  34. Have your say to improve QT. Vote early and often 🙂

    An online survey launched today makes it easy for you to have your say about improving question time in the House of Representatives.

    Mr Bert van Manen, the chair of the House Procedure Committee is part of a parliamentary inquiry into the way question time is run.

    ‘The survey lets you quickly and easily provide your thoughts about what we could do differently during question time,’ Mr van Manen said. ‘It takes just a few minutes to do.’

    Committee Deputy Chair Milton Dick said it is a great opportunity for everyday Australians to get involved.

    ‘We’re open to all ideas and this is just one way that people can provide feedback,’ said Mr Dick.
    ‘People can also provide written submissions until the survey closes on 31 October.’

    In its inquiry, the Committee will consider ideas about the format of question time, how questions can be asked and the standing orders that govern question time. The behaviour of individual MPs is not part of the inquiry.

    The Committee is also consulting MPs and looking at how question time operates in other parliaments.

    ‘We want to get feedback from a broad range of people,’ Mr van Manen said. ‘I encourage everyone to have their say.’

    Media inquiries
    Mr Bert van Manen MP
    bert.vanmanen.mp@aph.gov.au
    (07) 3807 6340

  35. Labor need to formulate and advocate policies in relation to the environment and climate change that are effective, practical and supported by the electorate. At all costs, they must avoid being painted as Green by any other name. Luckily, the Greens are willing collaborators in this campaign. They march against Labor every day. Labor should conspicuously welcome this.

  36. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, October 2, 2019 at 9:26 am
    Oh dear Sky After Dark is going to go ballistic. The “politically correct” vegans are taking over

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/cowin-says-cow-out-as-hungry-jack-s-goes-meat-free-20191001-p52wgt.html

    Jack Cowin is an entrepreneur who is good at reading the market. He’s positioning Hungry Jack’s to compete with McDonald’s which is also introducing a meat free burger. It’s part of the fast food industry offering token products of this sort, knowing that the vast majority of customers will continue to buy the usual menu items.

    (EDIT – fixing blockquotes)

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