Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

The fourth Newspoll since its wrong call at the election continues to credit the Coalition with only a modest lead on two-party preferred, with the minor parties continue to lift and Scott Morrison recording the opposite of a US visit bounce.

The fourth Newspoll since the federal election credits the Coalition with a 51-49 two-party lead, unchanged on the last poll three weeks ago, with both major parties down on the primary vote – the Coalition by one to 42%, and Labor by two to 33%. The Greens and One Nation are both up a point, the former to 13% – their best result from Newspoll since 2015 – and the latter to 6%.

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have deteriorated, either despite or because of his activities in the United States last week, his approval down two to 47% and disapproval up four to 43%. Anthony Albanese has bounced back four on approval to 39% after a six-point drop last time, but the report in The Australian does not relate his disapproval rating (UPDATE: Steady at 40%). Morrison’s preferred prime minister reading goes from 48-28 to 50-31, as respondents apparently becoming more inclined to pick a side.

The poll was presumably conducted as usual from Thursday to Sunday – no sample size is provided, but the norm is around 1600. More to follow.

UPDATE: The sample was 1658, of which 900 came from online surveys and 758 from automated phone polling. Also featured is a question on which relationship Australia should prioritise out of the United States and China, who came in at 56% and 25% respectively. The split was 70-18 among Coalition supporters, 46-32 for Labor, 60-24 among men and 51-26 among women.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,439 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

  1. ‘The presidency of one’, giving legitimacy to those who say there are no backroom handlers, adults in the room with a check on President Crazy Pants.

    Trump’s moves underscore his transformation as president. He arrived in Washington a neophyte uncertain about how to operate the machinery of government. But now, in his third year in office, Trump has grown confident about exercising power, disposing of aides who acted as guardrails and elevating those who prove their loyalty by following his orders.

    As the president said last month after John Bolton’s abrupt exit as national security adviser, “It’s very easy actually to work with me. You know why it’s easy? Because I make all the decisions.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-presidency-of-one-key-federal-agencies-increasingly-compelled-to-benefit-trump/2019/10/01/f80740ec-e453-11e9-a331-2df12d56a80b_story.html

  2. Hi Josh. Where is your “Big Stick” for those recalcitrant banks reluctant to pass on the latest full interest rate cut. Hit them hard Josh. Punish them like those welfare bludgers and leaners.

  3. PuffyTMD
    Outline often works with the AFR.

    Boerwar
    That is why the government has been having a sulk about what it sees as activist investors.

  4. One thing to be cautious of re: the Schiff speech … he free-wheels in one spot when he talks like a mobster “ … I am only going to say this 7 times …” — unfortunately, in the transcript Trump doesn’t say that (only implies it) so it kinda undermines Schiff’s down-the-line honesty and gave an opening for the Repugs to criticize him instead of answering the accusations agains Trump.

    That said … I agreed with everything Schiff said and I also agree he would have made a much better President.

  5. Michael Moore on Fire…

    In that video Moore nails Trump / Brexit and Morrison. Obviously not the Labor brains trust here, but the actual labor brains trust should have to watch that over and over again and be tested until they can prove they get it. The failures and fissures are not as clear in Australia but it is very obvious that they are there as well and that they decided the last election.

  6. Something very important happened today. The State Department Inspector General rushed over to the House with important information that he was afraid to allow to go through normal channels. Speculation is that it may have been destroyed if he didn’t give it to them himself:

    https://youtu.be/0CfZQMgucdY

  7. BW

    Money talks…

    https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/big-money-starts-to-dump-stocks-that-pose-climate-risks-20190808-p52ezu

    and BK’s links to outline for the article: https://outline.com/fm3eXY

    I was discussing my superannuation with a consultant recently, and she was saying that the first time, in my fund, the ethical investment portfolio has outperformed the normal investment portfolio.

    And this is in a fund who already have pretty high ethical standards for even their basic investments – e.g. No Woolworths because of the poker machine holdings.

    I got on board the ethical purchase thing very early – e.g. starting from the late 1970s no Nestles products because of their aggressive policy of promoting baby formula to mothers in the 3rd world over breast milk, when no clean water was available, and when purchasing the formula was taking food out of the mouths of the other children and parents.

    I found out about about Fair Trade in the early 1980s, when I was going through my Hippy Earth Mother stage (have still not recovered BTW), when sourcing things at the local food commune.

    I was right on board in the late 1980s when the idea of sustainable tuna fishing was brought to my notice.

    I think now, for people who do have some discretionary income (definitely not anyone on a Centrelink benefit), many, probably a majority (?) will take ethics into consideration when we buy a product.

    I guess this is why Scott Morrison’s Assistant Minister, Ben Morton,
    “used a speech to the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry to launch a ferocious attack on the big end of town, saying chief executives “too often succumb or pander to similar pressures from noisy, highly orchestrated campaigns of elites typified by groups such as GetUp or activist shareholders”.
    BHP boss announces $US400m plan to combat ‘indisputable’ climate crisis
    Read more

    In what was seen within business circles as an attack on one of Australia’s biggest resources companies, BHP, he mocked companies for “pretending you love paying tax or that you’re building electric cars rather than mining coal”.

    The actual articles reporting this are in The Australian, and paywalled, but you get the gist.

    I think this is a battle the Coalition will lose.

    In a Guardian article about Moreton’s speech, it was reported that

    “Australians overwhelmingly support business leaders speaking out on social and political issues, according to a new survey that conflicts with government efforts to paint such efforts as corporate kowtowing to “noisy elites”.

    However, the new survey, from the Committee for Economic Development of Australia (Ceda), also shows that when chief executives do speak out they are regarded as doing so out of self-interest.

    Yes, very likely, but if these businesses realise their social capital is saleable, then that is a great outcome.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/16/most-australians-believe-business-leaders-should-speak-out-on-social-issues

  8. Hi William,

    I just got an email to say that my monthly sub to Poll Bludger has been processed. Hopefully this is reaching you.

    I really appreciate you maintaining this site.

    This site, together with the morning roundup from the formidable BK, constitutes my daily news intake. I think it provides a very balanced diet.

  9. Vale: COMBE, David

    Aged 76

    Passed away after a long and courageous battle with cancer on 21.09.2019.

    Beloved husband of Maggie, deeply loved by his children Orkhan & Madina, his sister Gay, his former wife Meena and sons Nep (dec), Sol, Abe (dec) and Barney.

    Devoted grandfather to Jason and Laura.

    Funeral Oct 2nd (today)

    In lieu of flowers, donations for research towards a cure for rare and uncommon cancers can be sent to the following link, and would be greatly appreciated.

    https://crowdfunding.sydney.edu.au/davidcombe

  10. Confessions @ #1421 Wednesday, October 2nd, 2019 – 9:20 pm

    Pompeo speaks. With the Italian Foreign Minister after meeting in Rome. WTF? Why is the US govt suddenly shrouding itself behind officials of other countries? And why are public servants suddenly congregating in Italy of all places?

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/national/pompeo-holds-news-conference-with-italian-foreign-minister-amid-ukraine-probe/2019/10/02/c3cc9984-4b92-4f2a-95d4-92f6ea393343_live.html

    Steve Bannon.

  11. One thing to be cautious of re: the Schiff speech … he free-wheels in one spot when he talks like a mobster “ … I am only going to say this 7 times …” — unfortunately, in the transcript Trump doesn’t say that (only implies it) so it kinda undermines Schiff’s down-the-line honesty and gave an opening for the Repugs to criticize him instead of answering the accusations agains Trump.

    Part of the Trump magic is to have his kids get away with the most blatant and disgusting neoptism and profiteering, while we on the left tutt-tutt about Biden’s kid getting a job he wasn’t really qualified for.

    I’m not sure nitpicking on our side is part of an effective response. Michael Moore seemed to get that more correct than a lot on the left. Lets move the collective from ‘entirely corrupt and an effective neo-feudalistic society’ to ‘not entirely corrupt and rule by the billionaires’ before we more those who would seek to lead us from ‘ok’ to ‘pure’.

  12. WeWantPaul

    I was just disappointed Schiff gave them something to use against him. He should have played it straight simply to make sure there was nowhere the repugs could go but the evidence.

    It is an unfortunate state of affairs that just like with Labor here, the bar for Democrats is always higher.

  13. C@t:

    Bannon was purged from Team Trump way before shit got real for the president. What could he possibly offer in this period of need for sensible advice?

  14. If Trump had just let the Russian saga slowly be forgotten he probably would have been ok. But doubling down with Ukraine could be his Waterloo. Bloody idiot.

  15. In pure #ETTD symbolism, Giuliani’s bluster for Trump has brought the spotlight on him.

    The hunt by President Trump’s attorney Rudolph W. Giuliani for material in Ukraine damaging to Democrats has put a spotlight on business ties he has had in the former Soviet republic for at least a decade, work that has introduced him to high-level Ukrainian financial and political circles.

    Giuliani has said he has been working for free solely to benefit his client, Trump, as he has sought information from Ukrainian officials — an effort that has spurred a House impeachment inquiry into whether the president abused his power.

    However, House investigators are now seeking records about Giuliani’s past clientele in Ukraine, including Pavel Fuks, a wealthy developer who financed consulting work Giuliani did in 2017 for the city of Kharkiv. That same year, according to court filings, Fuks said he was banned from entering the United States for five years. The documents do not specify why.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/impeachment-inquiry-puts-new-focus-on-giulianis-work-for-prominent-figures-in-ukraine/2019/10/01/b3c6d08c-e089-11e9-be96-6adb81821e90_story.html

  16. Davidwh:

    It isn’t just Trump, all his nearest and dearest are victims of their own hubris. And the longer this drags on, the closer it gets to his inner circle, the louder they all shriek.

  17. Confessions @ #1427 Wednesday, October 2nd, 2019 – 9:33 pm

    C@t:

    Bannon was purged from Team Trump way before shit got real for the president. What could he possibly offer in this period of need for sensible advice?

    Because, just as it seemed as though Corey Lewandoski was ‘purged’ from Team Trump, he wasn’t really. Those that are useful to Trump’s project, which appears to me to be the same project that interests Populist Authoritarians the world over, which is also Matteo Salvini’s goal, which is also Steve Bannon’s goal, and countless others, they remain in contact with Trump through back channels, and are never truly ‘purged’ at all. Just moved out of sight and out of mind when they take the focus off Trump in America.

    So, when it comes to strategy to save the project, they seem to spend a lot of time in Italy…where Steve Bannon is headquartered.

  18. C@t:

    What you say makes sense, it just doesn’t sound as if the Trumpists, caught up in what they’re caught up in, would turn to at this point in time.

  19. Confessions @ #1434 Wednesday, October 2nd, 2019 – 10:07 pm

    C@t:

    What you say makes sense, it just doesn’t sound as if the Trumpists, caught up in what they’re caught up in, would turn to at this point in time.

    I can see how you would think that but I can’t see any real reason for Pompeo to be in Italy right now, except…

    They ARE in desperate straits in Trumpland and a face to face meeting with someone who has THEIR best interests at heart, which couldn’t be recorded, would be of assistance as they try and fight themselves out of the corner they have painted themselves into.

    I know I’m just supposing but it’s the only logical conclusion I can come to.

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